Purdue vs IU predictions
- Thread starter Summy1
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All depends on which teams show up. Does Purdue play lock down defense and feast in the paint, Or does IU make it rain 3s while Purdie settles for Jump shots? Either way I think the winning team has a comfotable lead all game and cruises to a nice victory. Hope its the boilers! #BTFU
Well if this season is an indication, coming off a win and playing a ranked opponent I don't like our chances. Seems like it could be some trouble. My gut is Purdue comes out tough like most games and takes a lead into the break. My gut also tells me Yogi will come up big and we can't stop him down the stretch. Something like a 71-64 IU win. The stage will be too big for Swanigan, Cline, PJ, guys who need a huge game or to atleast play their role perfectly.
The positive is I am not worried about getting out coached.
The positive is I am not worried about getting out coached.
sorry if you already read this in the overview thread...not sure where it belongs since I'm not wanting to start a thread.
Random basketball thoughts on the Purdue and IU gameLike many I’ve witnessed some surprises over the years in this rivalry. However, typically it is a hotly contested game that comes down to the last few minutes in determining the winner. I expect the same today as that is the rule rather than the exception. During the Knight years there was mutual respect between the players and coaches and I want to believe that has continued. Both sides understand what the other side did in the months before the game…sacrifices most in the public would not endure.
I’m a dinosaur and admit to a bias or old view of how the game should be played. I believe the NCAA rules committee have pushed the greatest game (college football would be a legitimate debate) towards the NBA game and have lost more purity of the game. In a game that stressed teamwork that was aligned towards getting a better (and usually that meant closer) shot and the many events to create that condition we are witnessing a move towards the individual player and more guard or guard skilled players being rewarded. None of this is an accident. It is the result of the NCAA trying to bring out the entertainment to the less sophisticated viewer and to spread the wealth among more teams which also will make the games more entertaining for those that like the excitement rather than the strategy or fundamentals of the “team” game. Last week, almost half (10/25) of the top ranked teams loss in at least one game. The normal curve of the population has many more 6’ players than 7’ players. If you want more parity, lean the game to the 6’ players rather than the 7’ players since only a few teams could hoard the 7’ players but many teams can get good 6’ players. This can be accomplished by giving more points on the perimeter than inside. Reward the perimeter player 3 points for a basket and only 2 when closer to the basket. Now the ball handling perimeter player has an advantage that never used to be in the game. Next, make more possessions to maximize the potential for the 3 point basket through the shot clock…and then reduce the shot clock for the entertainment value while enhancing the value of the little guy. The perimeter player already has the ball as the clock continues to tick making the game more one dimensional and his game is enhanced. The bigs, the guys that depend on receiving a pass depend on getting the ball inside now has a clock working against them. Years ago you could wait until the other team’s lack of mental discipline broke down allowing an entry pass. Today, the shot clock works against that team play.
This Purdue team I think would have been great a few years ago, much, much better than today before the rule changes and emphasis on protecting the guards on offense and yet allowing those same offensive guards to flail about with their arms to strike away at the defensive player trying to guard them. You will see Yogi continually push off today, but the reality is many other players do it too, since it rarely gets called. Valentine is just as bad as Yogi in committing an offensive foul that is ignored. It is part of the emphasis of the game to protect the little guys (remember the parity desired) especially when dribbling towards the basket and for many refs to allow the bigs to wrestle inside as though a schizophrenic is in that zebra suit. That is where the game is today, different than a few years ago in major rules and emphasis of those rules. Purdue is a team of contrarian nature and IU is perhaps the style of the future that is if you can use the world style in that context? I’m old enough I won’t have to endure the newer game long, the one dimensional players and the decrease of coaching. Knight, Keady and many others that made this rivalry what is it has some turning in their graves and others just throwing up. Did I say I hate the way the game is today?
This game is a huge contrast in styles. Last year I was shocked that Crean always tried to match up with a futile matchup of Purdue by allowing someone on IU to play that could not shoot a jump shot allowing Matt to use AJ or Haas on the player that was not a threat on the perimeter. Although IU had enough players to place five threats behind the arc, he never, and in the game at Purdue, IU was so far behind that experiment was possible. As everyone knows it will be IU’s quickness against Purdue’s size both with strengths and both with weaknesses. How each team maximizes its strengths and minimizes its weaknesses will go a long way towards the outcome of the game as well as any potential extreme vision of the game by the zebras.
I do not think IU can beat Purdue without hitting enough 3 pt shots or getting enough 2 pt baskets on conversion (Swanigan) and transition due to turnovers and long rebounds. Now if the perimeter players for IU are allowed to drive and get some calls, it will open up the perimeter for IU and that would be the only way IU could go against a set D and score the 3 ball with enough frequency. IU makes the runs when the play is a helter skelter fashion as the D is scrambling to find players. In a rivalry game, I would think that kind of protection would not be allowed. Therefore, I think Purdue’s best defense of IU starts and ends on the offensive end of Purdue. Purdue must take care of the ball, have patience and dictate tempo. Can IU use their energy in guarding someone for a duration (mentally and physically) and if so, will that show up in leg fatigue over the course of the game…even with all the TV timeouts on the 3 ball? Next Purdue must exploit the size advantage and find a way to get the ball in the paint AND score, not come up empty in what hopefully is just a wrestling match inside. “IF” Purdue is enough threat on the perimeter I can see Johnny Hill taking it to the rim and placing the guards of IU in a more foul prone position or having Johnny Hill score inside. If IU plays more zone, PJ could be more valuable. Does IU dictate the D dependent on which PG is playing? Not going into the stats that anyone can read and the obvious stats needed, but some things I’m concerned with that may lead to some of the stats.
Purdue has many more ways to beat IU than IU has to beat Purdue. However, IU is more explosive and with basketball being a game of runs, IU wants the helter skelter game and Purdue wants the discipline of a grind. If the perimeter game of either team is off, that substantially will be huge in this game as well as the interpretation of the rules by the particular refs in this game. Purdue will play half court man on D trying to contend the three ball and needing to contain the dribble while needing to own the boards (can’t help so much IU gets weak side board and pass back to man left open by help defenbse) and converting entry passes to baskets and not turnovers. Purdue needs to push the ball, probe and score when it is definite, but have discipline when not. Purdue cannot run with IU and expect to win without discipline being in play. Purdue would like to steal 6-8 points getting the ball up the court if possible. If Purdue runs without discipline, IU will dumb Purdue down and beat them with experience in this type of a game. IU is much more suited with its athletes in playing stupid than Purdue. J
IU wants to run and run some more. IU would love to get AJ and Haas in foul trouble…something not remotely accomplished at any time or place. Since IU is quicker at all positions do we see a press out of IU as a surprise…especially since this game may come down to just a few buckets of a two minute swing in play? IU wants Purdue to beat them from the outside, who doesn’t? I do not think IU will use huge pressure on the perimeter to attempt to force the Purdue bigs to go father out on the court to get the ball and so I’m more inclined to believe that either IU uses a press (which they typically don’t) or a trap (which they typically don’t) of some kind to generate extra possessions that have a high percent of scoring or what I really suspect is doubling of Purdue’s inside players. If IU goes pure zone or even matchup zone against Purdue there exists a greater chance of Purdue boards than man fronting and weak side helping on the backside along with defensive perimeter players digging at the ball. Course mixing all this up requiring Purdue to always adjust to changing D may eat a few seconds of an already diminishing clock now more of the defensive presence than before. If Williams or Bryant finds a stroke, that could be huge for IU as that is a bonus and changes some of what Purdue wants to do. Purdue prefers to contain the dribble (are you listening refs?) and have a safety valve in AJ or Haas rather than the Purdue bigs defending in space. Look for Bryant and Bieldfelt (sp?) for IU to face up...at least I would have them play that way and not post up to attempt for Purdue to defend them in space. Another player variable (I think we will generally see typical games out of the others) is Swanigan. Can his board and inside play be an advantage or will it be his slowness that is a bigger disadvantage? I do NOT think it will be intimidation that will affect him…perhaps too much internal pressure if pressure becomes a visual factor. I worry about Purdue working the ball and scoring and IU running to take it out and pushing the ball to score an easy two due to IU’s speed and Purdue bigs being slower and needing to run the court. Guards make them take an extra second or two to catch the pass out of bounds. IU has no problem going 1 on 5 in the open court and would love for other teams to play this loose.
Well, all this is obsolete once the ball is tossed and the game takes on a life of its own. Look for a tight whistle early just so the refs make sure the pea still works and an attempt to set the tone in what should be a hard fought battle. If IU wins it will be the first time IU has beat Purdue with Crean coach and a Zeller not on the court. I look for a good one. Well, there you have it…what I do not know… J
If IU shoots above 45% from the field...IU wins. If yogi continues his shooting slump...I like Purdue. My prediction is an IU victory. On a neutral court...Purdue is the better team and would win.
We finally put a total game together on both ends of the floor. Inside out works to perfection with lots of points in the paint and just enough 3's to keep IU's defense confused. Somebody other than the big names comes up big for us and has a special game.
I think PU rolls here. Not many teams, if any, matchup with our size, but IU is severely under-sized here. It makes them have the mind-frame that they NEED to shoot 3s to win, which is obvious, but adds a lot of pressure playing with the BT season on the line, against a team that is enormous, and your hated in-state rival.
I think if IU wins, Troy Williams will have a huge night attacking the paint. He needs to get going in order for them to win. They're not going to beat us shooting pick n fade 3s all game. They need their athletic slasher to attack the paint. I don't think Williams will fare too well in this regard, but it starts early. If he has success, it could be a long night for PU. If he gets stuffed early, then look for PU to roll.
I think if IU wins, Troy Williams will have a huge night attacking the paint. He needs to get going in order for them to win. They're not going to beat us shooting pick n fade 3s all game. They need their athletic slasher to attack the paint. I don't think Williams will fare too well in this regard, but it starts early. If he has success, it could be a long night for PU. If he gets stuffed early, then look for PU to roll.
IU wins due to shooting 2x the amount of FTs. Get the calls late down the stretch. If it was in any other major conference Purdue wins.
Been a while since we have played two halves of BB! Maybe tonight???? We will have to in order to win a close one. Gut tells me 73-70 Hoosiers! They will get some hometown cookin fro the Refs tonight!
137-2. Good guys. Somehow we give up a garbage time basket when we are playing Purdue Pete, a Golden Girl, and a couple managers.
And, yes, I'm drinking.
And, yes, I'm drinking.
Watching Boiler sports for the past 30 years, I've developed a remarkable tolerance.
I pick the good guys 77-75. Huge games from Hammons, Edwards, and a couple of clutch 3s from Cline.
I started paying attention and noticing some adrenaline in 1964.I think I have a few more than that, but I'm too old to remember.
I was more of a Butler fan at that time and so I may not have as many as you. It was probably a couple of years later I started getting interested...and was still a Butler fan primarily then. I just figured two games a year and I would be over that mark...
I will predict a Vince Edwards poster on Colkin Hartman. Sending him officially into retirement.
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