Purdue/Michigan State overview

[nagemj02]

When: Tuesday, January 24th

Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Tip-Off: 7 (ET)

TV: ESPN2


Head Coaches:

Purdue: Matt Painter (12th season)

Michigan State: Tom Izzo (22nd season)


Purdue's Team Stats: http://www.purduesports.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2016-2017/teamcume.html#TEAM.TEM

Michigan State's Team Stats: http://www.msuspartans.com/sports/m-baskbl/stats/2016-2017/teamcume.html#TEAM.TEM


Projected Starters:

Purdue:

1/2 #3 Carsen Edwards 6'0 185 (Fr.): averaging 10.6 PPG, 3 RPG, 1 SPG, 2 APG, 2 TPG, 41% FG's (79-195), 67% FT's (26-39), 32% 3PT's (28-87), and 23 MPG in 20 GP this season

2/1 #11 P.J. Thompson 5'10 175 (Jr.): averaging 7.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1 SPG, 3.4 APG, 47% FG's (53-112), 73% FT's (11-15), 41% 3PT's (33-81), and 27.6 MPG in 20 GP this season

2 #31 Dakota Mathias 6'4 195 (Jr.): averaging 9.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, 46% FG's (67-146), 84% FT's (16-19), 47% 3PT's (42-89), and 30.4 MPG in 20 GP this season

3/4 #12 Vince Edwards 6'8 215 (Jr.): averaging 11.9 PPG, 5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2 TPG, 49% FG's (85-175), 81% FT's (38-47), 45% 3PT's (29-65), and 27.3 MPG in 20 GP this season

5/4 #50 Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan 6'9 245 (So.): averaging 18.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 3.4 TPG, 56% FG's (128-229), 78% FT's (95-122), 47% 3PT's (18-38), and 31.5 MPG in 20 GP this season



Michigan State:

1 #11 Lourawls "Tum-Tum" Nairn 5'10 175 (Jr.): averaging 4.2 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.8 APG, 47% FG's (34-72), 41% FT's (7-17), 38% 3PT's (9-24), and 24.4 MPG in 20 GP this season

2 #14 Eron Harris 6'3 180 (RS Sr.): averaging 12.5 PPG, 3 RPG, 45% FG's (85-191), 79% FT's (42-53), 40% 3PT's (38-95), and 23.7 MPG in 20 GP this season

3/2 #1 Joshua Langford 6'5 200 (Fr.): averaging 6.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, 51% FG's (49-97), 64% FT's (7-11), 43% 3PT's (20-47), and 20.4 MPG in 20 GP this season

3/4 #22 Miles Bridges 6'7 225 (Fr.) (left-handed shooter): averaging 15.1 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 2.1 APG, 3.1 TPG, 48% FG's (75-158), 62% FT's (23-37), 40% 3PT's (23-58), and 30.4 MPG in 13 GP this season

5/4 #44 Nick Ward 6'8 245 (Fr.) (left-handed shooter): averaging 13.4 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 2.1 BPG, 2.6 FPG, 59% FG's (99-168), 56% FT's (70-126), no 3PT's attempted, and 19.4 MPG in 20 GP this season



Projected Reinforcements:

Purdue:

1 #55 Michael "Spike" Albrecht 5'11 180 (RS Sr.) (graduate transfer from Michigan): averaging 2.2 PPG, 24% FG's (6-25), 93% FT's (14-15), 19% 3PT's (3-16), and 13.2 MPG in 13 GP this season

2 #14 Ryan Cline 6'5 190 (So.): averaging 6.4 PPG, 2 RPG, 43% FG's (34-80), 78% FT's (7-9), 42% 3PT's (28-66), and 20.7 MPG in 16 GP this season

3/4 #5 Basil Smotherman 6'6 225 (RS Jr.) (left-handed shooter): averaging 3.9 PPG, 56% FG's (30-54), 55% FT's (6-11), 31% 3PT's (4-13), and 12.1 MPG in 18 GP this season

5 #44 Isaac Haas 7'2 280 (Jr.): averaging 13.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 2.3 TPG, 62% FG's (94-151), 71% FT's (84-118), no 3PT's attempted, and 21.5 MPG in 20 GP this season



Michigan State:

1 #5 Cassius Winston 6'0 175 (Fr.): averaging 6.5 PPG, 2 RPG, 5.6 APG, 2.3 TPG, 44% FG's (47-107), 65% FT's (22-34), 35% 3PT's (13-37), and 20.2 MPG in 20 GP this season

2 #20 Matt McQuaid 6'6 195 (So.): averaging 5.6 PPG, 33% FG's (33-100), 74% FT's (17-23), 33% 3PT's (23-70), and 21.1 MPG in 19 GP this season

2/3 #3 Alvin Ellis 6'4 205 (Sr.): averaging 5.8 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 40% FG's (35-87), 71% FT's (25-35), 38% 3PT's (21-55), and 15.3 MPG in 20 GP this season

3/2 #0 Kyle Ahrens 6'5 210 (So.): averaging 2.9 PPG, 42% FG's (19-45), 73% FT's (11-15), 30% 3PT's (9-30), and 9.2 MPG in 20 GP this season

4 #30 Matt Van Dyk 6'5 215 (RS Sr.) (former walk-on and JC transfer): averaging 1.9 PPG, 2.7 RPG, 52% FG's (12-23), 53% FT's (10-19), no 3PT's attempted, and 10.7 MPG in 18 GP this season

4/5 #25 Kenny Goins 6'6 220 (So.): averaging 3.6 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.6 FPG, 57% FG's (27-47), 75% FT's (18-24), no 3PT's attempted, and 18.8 MPG in 20 GP this season



Who Might Play:

Purdue:

4/3 #24 Grady Eifert 6'7 220 (So.): averaging 1.4 PPG, 86% FG's (6-7), 60% FT's (3-5), no 3PT's attempted, and 3.5 MPG in 11 GP this season

 

[Boiler Buck]

Need to figure out a way to defend and get a win up there.....I know we can score against anyone.

it will also be fun to see Biggie and Ward go after it....

 

[nagemj02]

A variation in defense wouldn't hurt from time-to-time. Do you agree that Carsen should have pick & roll and iso's ran for him from time-to-time, Buck?

Yep, it's been 6 years since the last Purdue win in East Lansing:

http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap/_/gameId/310580127

 

[BoilerDaddy]

A variation in defense wouldn't hurt from time-to-time. Do you agree that Carsen should have pick & roll and iso's ran for him from time-to-time, Buck?

Yep, it's been 6 years since the last Purdue win in East Lansing:

http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap/_/gameId/310580127

I'm impressed at how well Purdue has executed its man defense this season, despite a handful of rough games. One could argue that Purdue is at or near the bottom of the Big Ten in terms of athleticism, yet they are ranked 18th nationally in KenPom defense. I'm not convinced that mixing in some poorly executed zone would help anything.

 

[nagemj02]

I'm impressed at how well Purdue has executed its man defense this season, despite a handful of rough games. One could argue that Purdue is at or near the bottom of the Big Ten in terms of athleticism, yet they are ranked 18th nationally in KenPom defense. I'm not convinced that mixing in some poorly executed zone would help anything.

Purdue's constant man-to-man usually ends up being torched by some team in the NCAA Tournament (if not, before then). Mixing in other defenses would increase the chance of creating some confusion and keeping those teams' offenses off-balance.

 

[TC4THREE]

It's constant man-to-man usually ends up being torched by some team in the NCAA's. Mixing in other defenses would increase the chance of creating some confusion and keeping those teams' offenses off-balance.

Really don't feel like defense has been our NCAA problem the past two years. Could it have been better? Sure. Not one of our biggest issues imo though.

 

[jadeezra]

Really don't feel like defense has been our NCAA problem the past two years. Could it have been better? Sure. Not one of our biggest issues imo though.

Epic choke jobs lol

 

[TC4THREE]

Epic choke jobs lol

Turnovers (ALR) and shooting (UC) are the causes in my mind.

 

[nagemj02]

Really don't feel like defense has been our NCAA problem the past two years. Could it have been better? Sure. Not one of our biggest issues imo though.

Turnovers (ALR) and shooting (UC) are the causes in my mind.

Those are two good ones but the offense getting stagnant vs. Cincinnati and the defense getting beat on a regular basis vs. UALR are right up there as well. It's as much (or more) the coaching (or lack of in some areas) than it is the players producing or executing. They can't execute a game plan set up by the coaching staff if the opposing coach has found ways to effectively counter it (particularly if they've successfully countered it early on in a game).

This goes back to coaching and the need to change things up from time-to-time in games, both defensively and offensively.

 

[Dakota Girl]

I'm impressed at how well Purdue has executed its man defense this season, despite a handful of rough games. One could argue that Purdue is at or near the bottom of the Big Ten in terms of athleticism, yet they are ranked 18th nationally in KenPom defense. I'm not convinced that mixing in some poorly executed zone would help anything.

I wish good luck BDaddy...many have tried but none have been able to convince him that playing one defense well is more important than playing several, less well...

 

[Dakota Girl]

Really don't feel like defense has been our NCAA problem the past two years. Could it have been better? Sure. Not one of our biggest issues imo though.

Dead on. In both the cincy and alr losses the problem was not defense. It was long stretches of nearly scoreless basketball in the last 5:00 minutes of games related to turnovers and the opponent not even having to pretend to defend the perimeter. Furthermore, this years team, which is the current relevant topic, is good and getting better. If they can solve the mystery of the high ball screen and roll, they will be in fine shape defensively.

 

[BuilderBob6]

Those are two good ones but the offense getting stagnant vs. Cincinnati and the defense getting beat on a regular basis vs. UALR are right up there as well. It's as much (or more) the coaching (or lack of in some areas) than it is the players producing or executing. They can't execute a game plan set up by the coaching staff if the opposing coach has found ways to effectively counter it (particularly if they've successfully countered it early on in a game).

This goes back to coaching and the need to change things up from time-to-time in games, both defensively and offensively.

It all goes back to coaching for you. Always has.

 

[nagemj02]

It's an essential part of having a successful and a legitimate championship-contending college basketball program, Bob The Builder. You can't really argue against that.

 

[TC4THREE]

It's an essential part of having a successful and a legitimate championship-contending college basketball program, Bob The Builder. You can't really argue against that.

Sometimes the other team is better. 350 other programs are trying to win too.

CMP isn't perfect and you will always find fault with him when we lose. I'd bet that he finds fault within himself. That said, at the end of the day he has put a pretty good team on the floor far more often than not so he is fairly good at what he does.

 

[Dakota Girl]

It's an essential part of having a successful and a legitimate championship-contending college basketball program, Bob The Builder. You can't really argue against that.

Come on Nag. You have demonstrated that you can argue against anything, endlessly. Why can't Bob argue against it?

 

[MJ-79Boiler]

Our interior defense (in the paint and stopping pick and rolls/dunks, fouls) against Penn State was a breath of fresh air ! Now we will find out if it was a one game performance or a positive trend on a major weakness.

Michigan State has been getting 40-50 pts in this area and uses the back door dunk a lot, so I hope we are ready for those back cut picks. My keys to the game:

1.) Fouls we get on Nick Ward - he has a tendency to get off his feet on pump fakes. The importance of his foul situation is obviously his rebounding ! Like biggie he hits the boards hard on both ends, especially offensive . . so if we could get him off the floor it would be a big help.
2.) Our ability to keep the easy points to a minimum. - Penn State is the only game where we have done a really good job against better teams. If we keep layups, dunks and FT under 40 pts, we win !
3.) We need to shoot around 50%. Normally we offset our defensive weakness in the paint area by outrebounding many teams. I expect this one to be pretty even, which will put a premium on shooting well.
4.) Need a big game from Vince. I could be wrong, but I think he can exploit his matchups in this one ! (and help us pick up some fouls on Nick Ward trying to help)

I know many would also say turnovers, but . . I just don't see us improving this in a game like this. It will take time.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Come on Nag. You have demonstrated that you can argue against anything, endlessly. Why can't Bob argue against it?

Hey.....what about.....Bob?

 

[BuilderBob6]

Come on Nag. You have demonstrated that you can argue against anything, endlessly. Why can't Bob argue against it?

Today I learned having a good coach is essential to building a legitimate college basketball program.
So I've got that going for me......which is nice. I'll just leave it at that.
Sounds like we both have learned these conversations go nowhere with Mr. Nage.

 

[paintball1979]

When: Tuesday, January 24th

Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, MI

Tip-Off: 7 (ET)

TV: ESPN2


Head Coaches:

Purdue: Matt Painter (12th season)

Michigan State: Tom Izzo (22nd season)



Projected Starters:

Purdue:

1/2 #3 Carsen Edwards 6'0 185 (Fr.): averaging 10.6 PPG, 3 RPG, 1 SPG, 2 APG, 2 TPG, 41% FG's (79-195), 67% FT's (26-39), 32% 3PT's (28-87), and 23 MPG in 20 GP this season

2/1 #11 P.J. Thompson 5'10 175 (Jr.): averaging 7.5 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 1 SPG, 3.4 APG, 47% FG's (53-112), 73% FT's (11-15), 41% 3PT's (33-81), and 27.6 MPG in 20 GP this season

2 #31 Dakota Mathias 6'4 195 (Jr.): averaging 9.6 PPG, 3.6 RPG, 4.2 APG, 46% FG's (67-146), 84% FT's (16-19), 47% 3PT's (42-89), and 30.4 MPG in 20 GP this season

3/4 #12 Vince Edwards 6'8 215 (Jr.): averaging 11.9 PPG, 5 RPG, 3.6 APG, 2 TPG, 49% FG's (85-175), 81% FT's (38-47), 45% 3PT's (29-65), and 27.3 MPG in 20 GP this season

5/4 #50 Caleb "Biggie" Swanigan 6'9 245 (So.): averaging 18.5 PPG, 12.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 3.4 TPG, 56% FG's (128-229), 78% FT's (95-122), 47% 3PT's (18-38), and 31.5 MPG in 20 GP this season



Michigan State:

1 #11 Lourawls "Tum-Tum" Nairn 5'10 170 (Jr.)

2 #14 Eron Harris 6'3 180 (RS Sr.)

3/2 #1 Joshua Langford 6'5 200 (Fr.)

3/4 #22 Miles Bridges 6'7 225 (Fr.)

5/4 #44 Nick Ward 6'8 245 (Fr.)



Projected Reinforcements:

Purdue:

1 #55 Michael "Spike" Albrecht 5'11 180 (RS Sr.) (graduate transfer from Michigan): averaging 2.2 PPG, 24% FG's (6-25), 93% FT's (14-15), 19% 3PT's (3-16), and 13.2 MPG in 13 GP this season

2 #14 Ryan Cline 6'5 190 (So.): averaging 6.4 PPG, 2 RPG, 43% FG's (34-80), 78% FT's (7-9), 42% 3PT's (28-66), and 20.7 MPG in 16 GP this season

3/4 #5 Basil Smotherman 6'6 225 (RS Jr.): averaging 3.9 PPG, 56% FG's (30-54), 55% FT's (6-11), 31% 3PT's (4-13), and 12.1 MPG in 18 GP this season

5 #44 Isaac Haas 7'2 280 (Jr.): averaging 13.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG, 2.3 TPG, 62% FG's (94-151), 71% FT's (84-118), no 3PT's attempted, and 21.5 MPG in 20 GP this season


Michigan State:

1/2 #5 Cassius Winston 6'0 175 (Fr.)

2 #20 Matt McQuaid 6'6 195 (So.)

2/3 #3 Alvin Ellis 6'4 205 (Sr.)

3/2 #0 Kyle Ahrens 6'5 210 (So.)

4/5 #25 Kenny Goins 6'6 220 (So.)



Who Might Play:

Purdue:

4/3 #24 Grady Eifert 6'7 220 (So.): averaging 1.4 PPG, 86% FG's (6-7), 60% FT's (3-5), no 3PT's attempted, and 3.5 MPG in 11 GP this season


Michigan State:

4 #30 Matt Van Dyk 6'5 215 (RS Sr.) (former walk-on and prior to that, played NJCAA basketball)




(tbc)

My Dish guide says ESPN.

 

[delish1]

A variation in defense wouldn't hurt from time-to-time. Do you agree that Carsen should have pick & roll and iso's ran for him from time-to-time, Buck?

Yep, it's been 6 years since the last Purdue win in East Lansing:

http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap/_/gameId/310580127

I would love to see a Carson/biggie pick and roll. With their skill sets (both being able to shoot from anywhere), I feel like it could be a major weapon surrounded by shooters. I really hope that's in the tool box for the postseason

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

My Dish guide says ESPN.

ESPN.com has Kansas @ West Virgina as the ESPN game and Purdue/Michigan State as ESPN2 for the early games.

 

[BoilerBiker]

I guess I'll set all espns to record (even the ocho!)

uverse still has espn for me too, but purduesports says espn2

 

[big10best]

I think this game is our biggest to date this season. We have to steal a couple on the road.

 

[Dakota Girl]

Today I learned having a good coach is essential to building a legitimate college basketball program.
So I've got that going for me......which is nice. I'll just leave it at that.
Sounds like we both have learned these conversations go nowhere with Mr. Nage.

True, they don't. But they do provide hours of mindless entertainment.

 

[nagemj02]

I would love to see a Carson/biggie pick and roll. With their skill sets (both being able to shoot from anywhere), I feel like it could be a major weapon surrounded by shooters. I really hope that's in the tool box for the postseason

It might as well be in the toolbox now. I'm not sure what Painter would be waiting for at this point.

 

[Boiler Buck]

A variation in defense wouldn't hurt from time-to-time. Do you agree that Carsen should have pick & roll and iso's ran for him from time-to-time, Buck?

Yep, it's been 6 years since the last Purdue win in East Lansing:

http://www.espn.com/ncb/recap/_/gameId/310580127

We are undefeated when Carsen scores 10+ I believe.....so hopefully we get him going on the road too.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

PURDUE BY 20

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

We are undefeated when Carsen scores 10+ I believe.....so hopefully we get him going on the road too.

yes.....think it's now 10-0, with CE having 13 on Saturday.

 

[SIBoiler2]

I used to really like what Nag contributed. This year it got really tiring so I put him on "the list". Don't really miss the endless ranting but can still imagine what is going on in this thread without reading it. He may be the only guy I know that whines more than Whizzo.

 

[dumpsterFyre]

It might as well be in the toolbox now. I'm not sure what Painter would be waiting for at this point.

 

[02Boilermaker]

We are undefeated when Carsen scores 10+ I believe.....so hopefully we get him going on the road too.

Yes, Purdue is undefeated with Carsen in double figures. Carsen is 2nd on the team in FGA, so whether or not he's making those shots is a huge factor in the success of the team.

Carsen's FG% broken down:
-53.2% (58 of 109) in the 10 games he scored in double figures. Purdue is 10-0 in these games.
-24.4% (21 of 86) in the 10 games he ended up in single digits. Purdue is 6-4 in these games.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Yes, Purdue is undefeated with Carsen in double figures. Carsen is 2nd on the team in FGA, so whether or not he's making those shots is a huge factor in the success of the team.

Carsen's FG% broken down:
-53.2% (58 of 109) in the 10 games he scored in double figures. Purdue is 10-0 in these games.
-24.4% (21 of 86) in the 10 games he ended up in single digits. Purdue is 6-4 in these games.

Above sounds like a good team reason to run offensive sets for Carsen where he can take good shots where he will have a higher % being successful.

 

[BuilderBob6]

Above sounds like a good team reason to run offensive sets for Carsen where he can take good shots where he will have a higher % being successful.

Agreed that's what the numbers say. My question is would he pass out of it if the shot isn't there or would he force a shot?
He has gotten better at taking what the defense gives him but still gets that look sometimes..............when you know he's going to shoot no matter what.
When he starts looking to dish on some of his drives when the defense collapses on him he will become even more dangerous. He's done it a couple times but he still has the scorer's mentality and is looking to finish.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Yes, Purdue is undefeated with Carsen in double figures. Carsen is 2nd on the team in FGA, so whether or not he's making those shots is a huge factor in the success of the team.

Carsen's FG% broken down:
-53.2% (58 of 109) in the 10 games he scored in double figures. Purdue is 10-0 in these games.
-24.4% (21 of 86) in the 10 games he ended up in single digits. Purdue is 6-4 in these games.

I said it in a game thread a while back, we are unbeatable when he plays well. We can beat anyone anywhere. When he plays poorly we look like last year's team. If he is consistent by the end of the year I think we will all be very very happy.

 

[BoilerAndy]

It's constant man-to-man usually ends up being torched by some team in the NCAA's. Mixing in other defenses would increase the chance of creating some confusion and keeping those teams' offenses off-balance.

I would be surprised if many NCAA tournament teams would be confused if they saw a zone defense.

 

[Dakota Girl]

Yes, Purdue is undefeated with Carsen in double figures. Carsen is 2nd on the team in FGA, so whether or not he's making those shots is a huge factor in the success of the team.

Carsen's FG% broken down:
-53.2% (58 of 109) in the 10 games he scored in double figures. Purdue is 10-0 in these games.
-24.4% (21 of 86) in the 10 games he ended up in single digits. Purdue is 6-4 in these games.

I am not asking you to do this but the same breakdown for all the payers would be interesting. I would anticipated pats a similar relationship but not sure if others would be so volatile.
Either way I say we keep him

 

[cprh9u]

MSU is definitely down, but this would still be a huge win in East Lansing. And there is no reason why we can't go on the road and get it. Let's go CMP and team!

 

[BoilerBiker]

purdue favored -2

let's see CS rack up another double-double surrounded by the izzone's heckling

 

[nagemj02]

Above sounds like a good team reason to run offensive sets for Carsen where he can take good shots where he will have a higher % being successful.

Exactly

 

[nagemj02]

Something interesting about two of Michigan State's main frontcourt players is that both Miles Bridges and Nick Ward are left-handed. They can both finish around the rim with either hand (especially Bridges) but I'm sure they still prefer to go to their left when it's possible. It will be interesting to see if Swanigan, V. Edwards, and company remember that when guarding each of them.