DENVER - Now that the ink on the story of Purdue's season is dry and the body of the Boilermakers' postseason demise cold, we will take a look at things as the stand today and how it relates to the future.
Understand, please, that this is opinion-based analysis. Feel free to disagree, as many of you might.
Context is important here, that context being that Purdue again looks to have the makings of an outstanding team next season, though its results in the past two NCAA Tournaments will inevitably follow it around until that demon can be exorcised.
What Purdue needs to get solved next season or improve on next season.
Composure
This up to the individuals to keep their collective heads about them, but this is way past the point of coincidence with this happening to Matt Painter's teams. It is not easy for people to change sometimes and I can't credibly say what he even should change, but clearly some deep soul-searching is in order when it comes to how these teams can be better led in situations where Purdue cannot simply make the simplest of plays in order to close out games that are all but won.
Is Purdue's tightness in big moments any sort of reflection of leadership from the sideline? Without being a psychologist or having access to huddles or anything like that, it is very difficult to say with any certainty, beyond repeating that this is way past the point of coincidence.
Painter and his staff, some how, some way, have to be better and it would seem like a thorough audit of everything might be in order. Everything.
Are these situations being mishandled? That's not an easy claim to be absolute about when taking into account that every decision that doesn't work out is inevitably the wrong decision. It's easy to second-guess everything when things end badly, but most end-of-game decisions are 50/50 sorts of calls, the difference between right and wrong being execution and simple luck.
(The reality is that Purdue has lost two NCAA Tournament games in as many years and a Big Ten Tournament championship game on bad bounces, bad calls and downright heroic individual plays.
The associated reality is that Purdue put itself in those positions where the minutia mattered, so that has to be a focus now.)
There is no perfect in-game coach in college basketball and no one will ever claim Painter to be, Painter included, but the decisions that have been made - a timeout here or there, a substitution here or there - were made for a reason and coaches are damned if they do, damned if they do in these situations.
Back to poise: Painter did take steps this season to keep this team loose, and it seemed to work for a while.
Then, the NCAA Tournament happened and the Boilermakers clammed up early, then again late.
If this is an issue on some level with Painter's personality, then that is an oddity, because away from the floor, that is the polar opposite of what he is.
But, something about this team was fundamentally broken with its ability to play with leads and handle pressure and Painter has to fix it. So do the players. The soul-searching has to be done by everyone, because this can't continue.
Again, this is not a press issue. Purdue beat Little Rock's press for 36-plus minutes, just like it beat Iowa's press for the first half in Mackey Arena, just like it beat Maryland's press for most of the game, too. The Boilermakers knew how to do it, and were prepared to do it.
But knowing how to do it and doing it when it matters most are two different things, and these catatonic states Purdue has been slipping into have brought total breakdowns in composure, awareness and all the other basic components of functionality.
Painter needs to do his part, whatever that part might be, but players have to be mentally tougher and more engaged, too.
Vince Edwards is going to be a great player at Purdue, but how a player who dribbled end to end stuck a three at the halftime buzzer didn't seem to know how much time was left on the clock at the end of regulation is beyond explanation, beyond just the realities of coaching young human beings sometimes, I guess.
Ditto for Purdue having the ball in the hands of its No. 2 point guard two games in a row with high-stakes results on the line. That is not ideal and those, I'm quite certain, were not the plays called.
Again, composure.
This is everyone's fault, but Painter's job to fix.
A true go-to guy when times are difficult
In the postseason, there were crucial instances where it seemed like no one wanted the ball in their hands.
Caleb Swanigan and Johnny Hill got raked over the coals for their decision-making in high-stakes games to end the season, but at least for their stake they were willing to try to make a play.
This is just something someone on this team has to grow into, that role of being the guy Purdue turns to make a big play or important decision with games hanging in the balance. And not just game-winners of the like, but just plays where the slippery slope has been stepped out on and the Boilermakers need traction.
Vince Edwards and Dakota Mathias have potential here, and Mathias' clutch play-to-clutch opportunity ratio this season was outstanding. His three-pointer in the final 30 seconds against Little Rock should have gone down as the dagger that ended the debacle before it went full debacle, same as his shots from the game at Wisconsin. Remember that game?
So often in second halves this season, A.J. Hammons put Purdue on his back and carried it. It might have been opponent-related, but he did not seem to have that mentality in the final two games of the season.
A calm, but commanding, presence on offense
This responsibility often falls on the point guard position but doesn't have to be restricted solely to that position.
But we'll start with point guard, where P.J. Thompson did great things for Purdue this season with his brain and his guts, but brains and guts are often trumped by speed and length when under siege, and that's simply not changing. His physical limitations do matter in certain situations. Hill did positive things in his year at Purdue, but his decision-making and excitability too often betrayed him.
(Personal mea culpa here: I wrote about the point guards not being the weak links everyone seemed to think they were, because I judged them on their best moments, as opposed to their worst. That turned out to be a flawed approach.)
Purdue needs poise at that position, but more than anything it needs someone - anyone - who wants the ball in his hands in the situations where the Boilermakers have failed the past two seasons, and we're talking about seasons and not just this season.
For starters, and this is easy to say now, but Purdue needs Thompson and Edwards to grow into this sort of role now that they're upperclassmen and needs others around them to pick it up. Mathias is the one guy who right now carries himself like a player who wants it in those situations. Good for him. Purdue needs more like him.
I have no idea what to expect from Carsen Edwards, but his quickness, on paper, should help. But viewing freshmen as known commodities is very often a fool's endeavor. In a perfect world, he can be brought along slowly. Not sure Purdue will have that luxury.
Purdue's springtime needs are what they are. They have been size and an athletic wing. It might be wise to add point guard to the list just for an extra layer of protection.
Painter and staff should - and I'm sure they will - take a long hard look at Cullen Neal from New Mexico, because he would represent an experienced option who's a coach's kid and would bring size to a position where right now Purdue projects to be prohibitively small.
But they need to dig deep and look closely into just why Neal committed more than a hundred turnovers this past season. If that's what he is, as opposed to that being about circumstance or whatever else, then he might be counterproductive.
That being said, if Neal is a playmaker he can't be put in positions where he's made to be afraid to make mistakes, because Purdue needs more guys who can make plays and will play freely.
Neal is expected to be an immediately eligible two-year player.
But Purdue needs a presence on offense, a different sort of leadership.
Rapheal Davis was a tremendous leader for Purdue, one of the most important Painter's had, but his leadership lied in intensity, emotion, whatever else. Purdue needs the other kind of leadership - poise and level-headedness - among players who are ball-handlers and decision-makers, which Davis was not.
They need balance, someone on the court who is going to figuratively shepherd Purdue through situations. When Purdue melted down this season, you saw a chain reaction of meltdowns, no one taking control and saying - either in words or actions - "Guys, we are going to be OK."
There were times where figuratively, Purdue needed a hug and no one gave it.
• Balance: Purdue was better later in the season, but the Boilermakers' emphasis on the post often made it predictable and a pretty straight-forward guard. Straight-forward and "easy" are not the same thing because matching up with A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas in the lane was no fun for anybody, but I mean straight-forward in terms of knowing where the ball was going.
I know Purdue probably called far more plays than it has in prior years, but Painter's always been a motion coach. I read once where Bob Knight once described the appeal of motion being its "perfect randomness" and having a singular focus the way the post has been a primary - "singular" wouldn't be accurate - focus would seem to take away from whatever randomness Purdue's been coached and built toward.
Purdue was at its best on offense late in the season, when Edwards finally seemed comfortable in his role and his position and seemed empowered. Mathias, too.
Point is, now that Hammons is gone, Purdue will still leverage the post with Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan, but the end of the season showed that having Edwards carrying himself as a leading-scorer type made Purdue better. Purdue needs - needs - the balance he provides with his ability to break down defenses off the dribble. And Mathias is and will still be Purdue's best offensive player in the backcourt. Ryan Cline will improve, too. But Edwards is most important because he's the only guy Purdue has who can make a play off the dribble.
The more involved everyone else is, chances are the better Purdue is.
Aggressiveness
Late in the season, Purdue was more aggressive on offense, starting with Edwards and Mathias, and will want to continue that for the sake of unpredictability and balance and keeping out of having to score in the halfcourt as much as it had to much of this season. The more you have to pass the ball around a defense built to deny the post, the more you're going to turn the ball over, and every bucket Purdue steals in transition, that's that much safe-cracking it doesn't have to do in the halfcourt.
Purdue lived with aggressiveness late in the season, but also died with it a few times.
It's still the way to go, though.
A new defensive identity
Midway through the season, I thought that this summer, zone ought to be revisited. Since then, though, Swanigan improved defensively at the 4 and Mathias and Cline both got better, too, so I'm not so sure about that anymore.
That being said, Purdue no longer has its defensive centerpiece. Haas is a rim-protector, but not a shot-blocker - and they are different - let alone the same kind of shot-blocker Hammons was for the Boilermakers.
That's going to make things so very different, and blocked shots are one thing, altered shots another, and Hammons recorded just as many of those as he did blocks. This will impact Purdue offensively too, because blocked shots are great triggers for transition.
Additionally, Rapheal Davis has been Purdue's best perimeter defender and there is no apparent heir to that claim.
Attention, Basil Smotherman: If you really want to make a profound impact at Purdue, now is your time.
He has grown into a power forward's body type - for better or worse - but if he commits himself to preparing the way Davis prepared for defensive matchups and tries as hard, he can really help this team.
If he doesn't, then he's still Purdue's third-string 4, which is the reason he redshirted this year.
Swanigan at center
Not primarily. Obviously Haas is Purdue's center, and his minutes will double now.
But Swanigan gives Purdue something at the 5 that really sets it apart offensively, without compromising rebounding in any way. Purdue needs him playing key minutes at center when Haas is out of the game.
Obviously, Swanigan came to Purdue to play the 4 and that's what he did this season and will continue to do next season, but if he wants to diversify his portfolio from a matchups perspective, this would be good for him, too, in addition to what's clearly best for the Boilermakers. There are going to be matchups at center that Swanigan can simply destroy, and the best way to impress the NBA, logic says, is to play really, really, really well.
Swanigan should do that no matter what position he plays next season, but doing it in different contexts would really showcase his versatility and make Purdue better. It would allow Purdue to play - and defend - differently.
The results speak for themselves: Go chart Purdue's offensive productivity - and Swanigan's - when he played the 5 this season.
Purdue will miss A.J. Hammons. How can it not? He was an elite player.
But now Purdue may have more lineup flexibility and can be more agile in its responses to matchups.
There is no upside to losing important players, but Purdue did play too many guys most of this season. Maybe a more condensed rotation changes things for the better to some small extent.
But, if Purdue can't handle - and Painter can't get his team to be able to handle - pressure in all its forms, then a year from now, another promising season will be at risk of ending too early.
Understand, please, that this is opinion-based analysis. Feel free to disagree, as many of you might.
Context is important here, that context being that Purdue again looks to have the makings of an outstanding team next season, though its results in the past two NCAA Tournaments will inevitably follow it around until that demon can be exorcised.
What Purdue needs to get solved next season or improve on next season.
Composure
This up to the individuals to keep their collective heads about them, but this is way past the point of coincidence with this happening to Matt Painter's teams. It is not easy for people to change sometimes and I can't credibly say what he even should change, but clearly some deep soul-searching is in order when it comes to how these teams can be better led in situations where Purdue cannot simply make the simplest of plays in order to close out games that are all but won.
Is Purdue's tightness in big moments any sort of reflection of leadership from the sideline? Without being a psychologist or having access to huddles or anything like that, it is very difficult to say with any certainty, beyond repeating that this is way past the point of coincidence.
Painter and his staff, some how, some way, have to be better and it would seem like a thorough audit of everything might be in order. Everything.
Are these situations being mishandled? That's not an easy claim to be absolute about when taking into account that every decision that doesn't work out is inevitably the wrong decision. It's easy to second-guess everything when things end badly, but most end-of-game decisions are 50/50 sorts of calls, the difference between right and wrong being execution and simple luck.
(The reality is that Purdue has lost two NCAA Tournament games in as many years and a Big Ten Tournament championship game on bad bounces, bad calls and downright heroic individual plays.
The associated reality is that Purdue put itself in those positions where the minutia mattered, so that has to be a focus now.)
There is no perfect in-game coach in college basketball and no one will ever claim Painter to be, Painter included, but the decisions that have been made - a timeout here or there, a substitution here or there - were made for a reason and coaches are damned if they do, damned if they do in these situations.
Back to poise: Painter did take steps this season to keep this team loose, and it seemed to work for a while.
Then, the NCAA Tournament happened and the Boilermakers clammed up early, then again late.
If this is an issue on some level with Painter's personality, then that is an oddity, because away from the floor, that is the polar opposite of what he is.
But, something about this team was fundamentally broken with its ability to play with leads and handle pressure and Painter has to fix it. So do the players. The soul-searching has to be done by everyone, because this can't continue.
Again, this is not a press issue. Purdue beat Little Rock's press for 36-plus minutes, just like it beat Iowa's press for the first half in Mackey Arena, just like it beat Maryland's press for most of the game, too. The Boilermakers knew how to do it, and were prepared to do it.
But knowing how to do it and doing it when it matters most are two different things, and these catatonic states Purdue has been slipping into have brought total breakdowns in composure, awareness and all the other basic components of functionality.
Painter needs to do his part, whatever that part might be, but players have to be mentally tougher and more engaged, too.
Vince Edwards is going to be a great player at Purdue, but how a player who dribbled end to end stuck a three at the halftime buzzer didn't seem to know how much time was left on the clock at the end of regulation is beyond explanation, beyond just the realities of coaching young human beings sometimes, I guess.
Ditto for Purdue having the ball in the hands of its No. 2 point guard two games in a row with high-stakes results on the line. That is not ideal and those, I'm quite certain, were not the plays called.
Again, composure.
This is everyone's fault, but Painter's job to fix.
A true go-to guy when times are difficult
In the postseason, there were crucial instances where it seemed like no one wanted the ball in their hands.
Caleb Swanigan and Johnny Hill got raked over the coals for their decision-making in high-stakes games to end the season, but at least for their stake they were willing to try to make a play.
This is just something someone on this team has to grow into, that role of being the guy Purdue turns to make a big play or important decision with games hanging in the balance. And not just game-winners of the like, but just plays where the slippery slope has been stepped out on and the Boilermakers need traction.
Vince Edwards and Dakota Mathias have potential here, and Mathias' clutch play-to-clutch opportunity ratio this season was outstanding. His three-pointer in the final 30 seconds against Little Rock should have gone down as the dagger that ended the debacle before it went full debacle, same as his shots from the game at Wisconsin. Remember that game?
So often in second halves this season, A.J. Hammons put Purdue on his back and carried it. It might have been opponent-related, but he did not seem to have that mentality in the final two games of the season.
A calm, but commanding, presence on offense
This responsibility often falls on the point guard position but doesn't have to be restricted solely to that position.
But we'll start with point guard, where P.J. Thompson did great things for Purdue this season with his brain and his guts, but brains and guts are often trumped by speed and length when under siege, and that's simply not changing. His physical limitations do matter in certain situations. Hill did positive things in his year at Purdue, but his decision-making and excitability too often betrayed him.
(Personal mea culpa here: I wrote about the point guards not being the weak links everyone seemed to think they were, because I judged them on their best moments, as opposed to their worst. That turned out to be a flawed approach.)
Purdue needs poise at that position, but more than anything it needs someone - anyone - who wants the ball in his hands in the situations where the Boilermakers have failed the past two seasons, and we're talking about seasons and not just this season.
For starters, and this is easy to say now, but Purdue needs Thompson and Edwards to grow into this sort of role now that they're upperclassmen and needs others around them to pick it up. Mathias is the one guy who right now carries himself like a player who wants it in those situations. Good for him. Purdue needs more like him.
I have no idea what to expect from Carsen Edwards, but his quickness, on paper, should help. But viewing freshmen as known commodities is very often a fool's endeavor. In a perfect world, he can be brought along slowly. Not sure Purdue will have that luxury.
Purdue's springtime needs are what they are. They have been size and an athletic wing. It might be wise to add point guard to the list just for an extra layer of protection.
Painter and staff should - and I'm sure they will - take a long hard look at Cullen Neal from New Mexico, because he would represent an experienced option who's a coach's kid and would bring size to a position where right now Purdue projects to be prohibitively small.
But they need to dig deep and look closely into just why Neal committed more than a hundred turnovers this past season. If that's what he is, as opposed to that being about circumstance or whatever else, then he might be counterproductive.
That being said, if Neal is a playmaker he can't be put in positions where he's made to be afraid to make mistakes, because Purdue needs more guys who can make plays and will play freely.
Neal is expected to be an immediately eligible two-year player.
But Purdue needs a presence on offense, a different sort of leadership.
Rapheal Davis was a tremendous leader for Purdue, one of the most important Painter's had, but his leadership lied in intensity, emotion, whatever else. Purdue needs the other kind of leadership - poise and level-headedness - among players who are ball-handlers and decision-makers, which Davis was not.
They need balance, someone on the court who is going to figuratively shepherd Purdue through situations. When Purdue melted down this season, you saw a chain reaction of meltdowns, no one taking control and saying - either in words or actions - "Guys, we are going to be OK."
There were times where figuratively, Purdue needed a hug and no one gave it.
• Balance: Purdue was better later in the season, but the Boilermakers' emphasis on the post often made it predictable and a pretty straight-forward guard. Straight-forward and "easy" are not the same thing because matching up with A.J. Hammons and Isaac Haas in the lane was no fun for anybody, but I mean straight-forward in terms of knowing where the ball was going.
I know Purdue probably called far more plays than it has in prior years, but Painter's always been a motion coach. I read once where Bob Knight once described the appeal of motion being its "perfect randomness" and having a singular focus the way the post has been a primary - "singular" wouldn't be accurate - focus would seem to take away from whatever randomness Purdue's been coached and built toward.
Purdue was at its best on offense late in the season, when Edwards finally seemed comfortable in his role and his position and seemed empowered. Mathias, too.
Point is, now that Hammons is gone, Purdue will still leverage the post with Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan, but the end of the season showed that having Edwards carrying himself as a leading-scorer type made Purdue better. Purdue needs - needs - the balance he provides with his ability to break down defenses off the dribble. And Mathias is and will still be Purdue's best offensive player in the backcourt. Ryan Cline will improve, too. But Edwards is most important because he's the only guy Purdue has who can make a play off the dribble.
The more involved everyone else is, chances are the better Purdue is.
Aggressiveness
Late in the season, Purdue was more aggressive on offense, starting with Edwards and Mathias, and will want to continue that for the sake of unpredictability and balance and keeping out of having to score in the halfcourt as much as it had to much of this season. The more you have to pass the ball around a defense built to deny the post, the more you're going to turn the ball over, and every bucket Purdue steals in transition, that's that much safe-cracking it doesn't have to do in the halfcourt.
Purdue lived with aggressiveness late in the season, but also died with it a few times.
It's still the way to go, though.
A new defensive identity
Midway through the season, I thought that this summer, zone ought to be revisited. Since then, though, Swanigan improved defensively at the 4 and Mathias and Cline both got better, too, so I'm not so sure about that anymore.
That being said, Purdue no longer has its defensive centerpiece. Haas is a rim-protector, but not a shot-blocker - and they are different - let alone the same kind of shot-blocker Hammons was for the Boilermakers.
That's going to make things so very different, and blocked shots are one thing, altered shots another, and Hammons recorded just as many of those as he did blocks. This will impact Purdue offensively too, because blocked shots are great triggers for transition.
Additionally, Rapheal Davis has been Purdue's best perimeter defender and there is no apparent heir to that claim.
Attention, Basil Smotherman: If you really want to make a profound impact at Purdue, now is your time.
He has grown into a power forward's body type - for better or worse - but if he commits himself to preparing the way Davis prepared for defensive matchups and tries as hard, he can really help this team.
If he doesn't, then he's still Purdue's third-string 4, which is the reason he redshirted this year.
Swanigan at center
Not primarily. Obviously Haas is Purdue's center, and his minutes will double now.
But Swanigan gives Purdue something at the 5 that really sets it apart offensively, without compromising rebounding in any way. Purdue needs him playing key minutes at center when Haas is out of the game.
Obviously, Swanigan came to Purdue to play the 4 and that's what he did this season and will continue to do next season, but if he wants to diversify his portfolio from a matchups perspective, this would be good for him, too, in addition to what's clearly best for the Boilermakers. There are going to be matchups at center that Swanigan can simply destroy, and the best way to impress the NBA, logic says, is to play really, really, really well.
Swanigan should do that no matter what position he plays next season, but doing it in different contexts would really showcase his versatility and make Purdue better. It would allow Purdue to play - and defend - differently.
The results speak for themselves: Go chart Purdue's offensive productivity - and Swanigan's - when he played the 5 this season.
Purdue will miss A.J. Hammons. How can it not? He was an elite player.
But now Purdue may have more lineup flexibility and can be more agile in its responses to matchups.
There is no upside to losing important players, but Purdue did play too many guys most of this season. Maybe a more condensed rotation changes things for the better to some small extent.
But, if Purdue can't handle - and Painter can't get his team to be able to handle - pressure in all its forms, then a year from now, another promising season will be at risk of ending too early.
