Purdue at Illinois | Game Preview | Is the crown up for grabs?

[Casey Bartley]

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BoilerUpload - Purdue at Illinois | Game Preview | Is the crown up for grabs?

Confetti might have already fallen in Mackey Arena, but #3 Purdue will get a chance

purdue.rivals.com

 

[Boiler Buck]

Look for TSJ to run into the lane to try to get fouls on Edey. Dude draws a lot of fouls by being aggressive with his speed, bouncing off players. Likely a successful possibility with the home refs.

 

[Casey Bartley]

Look for TSJ to run into the lane to try to get fouls on Edey. Dude draws a lot of fouls by being aggressive with his speed, bouncing off players. Likely a successful possibility with the home refs.

Not sure refs at Mackey can be more reliable 😂

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Line opened Illinois -1.5.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Not sure refs at Mackey can be more reliable 😂

B10 refs are awful league wide. Have been for a long while. Players speed & quick hands are too fast for them to notice everything. They let far too much go inside.

 

[SaratogaBoiler1]

How many games this entire year have we been an underdog?

 

[Chi-Boiler]

How many games this entire year have we been an underdog?

As far as I can see, one, arizona.

 

[SaratogaBoiler1]

That’s kind of crazy - underdogs only twice in an entire season.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

I love how all the pundits think we can't play up tempo. We shoot the hell out of it and are super deep. Ask Arizona and Alabama how that went.

 

[tenwest]

Line opened Illinois -1.5.

A couple weeks ago I told myself I could live with 3 more losses. At ILL. The BTT championship. (Shouldn’t hurt seeding since the brackets will pretty much be set since the BTT is the last game played on that Sunday) And a loss in the National Championship game. Sure would love to win it but I can live with this.

 

[qazplm]

Tough game. Winnable but also losable. Not huge either way as long as we win at home against Wisconsin

 

[Roeder]

A couple thoughts.....

1. This team has answered the bell in every big game this season. It's another prove it type game and I think we see Purdue at their best.

2. ILLINOIS resume is a bit of a paper tiger. Best wins are MSU and NW at home, @ Wisconsin, and FAU on a neutral. I don't think that matches their national perception, metrics, ranking....

3. All the talk is about how Purdue can't guard ILL iso ball, but when Hawkins is at the 5 how can he guard Edey or keep him off the glass? Zach might go for 40 if he stays out of foul trouble.

 

[TC4THREE]

Up for grabs? How so? Illinois winning this game isn't even half of what needs to happen for them to gain a share of it. Let's try to put numbers to this.

Illinois beating Purdue as slight home favorites. 60%
Purdue losing to Wisconsin as strong home favorites. 25%
Illinois winning at Iowa as road favorites. 60%

Odds of all 3 happening. Less than 10%. And I feel the odds I gave on all 3 are pretty generous to Illinois. That's not what I would term "up for grabs". I'd say that's more clinging to slim hopes.

 

[Dryfly88]

PU +2 now

 

[BoilerDaddy]

I think that the biggest key to this game is keeping Edey out of foul trouble. Despite their furious comeback at the end of the first game, Illinois is only an average 3 point shooting team, with their strength being driving the ball with Shannon and Domask and Hawkins pulling the opposing big away from the lane. As long as Painter can scheme to keep Edey as the rim protector and Edey can avoid fouling, I think that Illinois’ style can play into Purdue’s defensive strengths. This is particularly true when Shannon is in for Goode, and I say that acknowledging that Shannon is an All American level player.

 

[PaBoiler78]

I think that the biggest key to this game is keeping Edey out of foul trouble. Despite their furious comeback at the end of the first game, Illinois is only an average 3 point shooting team, with their strength being driving the ball with Shannon and Domask and Hawkins pulling the opposing big away from the lane. As long as Painter can scheme to keep Edey as the rim protector and Edey can avoid fouling, I think that Illinois’ style can play into Purdue’s defensive strengths. This is particularly true when Shannon is in for Goode, and I say that acknowledging that Shannon is an All American level player.

depends how the game will be called and who wins the FT shooting

 

[Booty Maximus]

A couple thoughts.....

1. This team has answered the bell in every big game this season. It's another prove it type game and I think we see Purdue at their best.

2. ILLINOIS resume is a bit of a paper tiger. Best wins are MSU and NW at home, @ Wisconsin, and FAU on a neutral. I don't think that matches their national perception, metrics, ranking....

3. All the talk is about how Purdue can't guard ILL iso ball, but when Hawkins is at the 5 how can he guard Edey or keep him off the glass? Zach might go for 40 if he stays out of foul trouble.

Illinois would be fine with Edey getting 40 and holding the rest to say...25 or 30.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Illinois would be fine with Edey getting 40 and holding the rest to say...25 or 30.

Not if it meant 🤡 and Dain-Dain fouled out.

 

[TopSecretBoiler]

Look for TSJ to run into the lane to try to get fouls on Edey. Dude draws a lot of fouls by being aggressive with his speed, bouncing off players. Likely a successful possibility with the home refs.

Draws a lot more than fouls for his illegal contact.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Draws a lot more than fouls for his illegal contact.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

Up for grabs? How so? Illinois winning this game isn't even half of what needs to happen for them to gain a share of it. Let's try to put numbers to this.

Illinois beating Purdue as slight home favorites. 60%
Purdue losing to Wisconsin as strong home favorites. 25%
Illinois winning at Iowa as road favorites. 60%

Odds of all 3 happening. Less than 10%. And I feel the odds I gave on all 3 are pretty generous to Illinois. That's not what I would term "up for grabs". I'd say that's more clinging to slim hopes.

To this: my book hasn't had the B1G regular season odds up for quite a while, and does not now. For purposes of the bet, with a tie, the winner is the team that gets the #1 seed, which would be Illinois in all scenarios I can come up with. So that fact means that it is probably a lot lower than 10% even.

Our line on the game just moved to 2.5 though.

 

[PurdueDave]

Draws a lot more than fouls for his illegal contact.

I think the change in how charges are called is giving guys like TSJ a boost. In their Wisconsin game, he literally "bowled over" 2 Wisconsin defenders and got the call. I don’t think he gets that call last year.

 

[Mandeville LA]

Purdue can and should win this game tonight. Should be a good match up, but if Purdue is shooting well not many could take them down. Hope I am right.

 

[TC4THREE]

Just put $200 on Illinois moneyline. Everyone can thank me later.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Just put $200 on Illinois moneyline. Everyone can thank me later.

Thanks TC!

 

[TC4THREE]

Thanks TC!

Every time I've done it this year we've won.