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Predictions for convention bounce for RNC

qazplm

qazplm

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Feb 5, 2003
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Since almost every conventions ends with a bounce, I will predict a 3 point bounce +/- 1. The average in the last few elections has been around 4 pts so I'm more or less predicting an average bounce.

I thought the first night was a disaster, but the second night was your average convention night albeit light on pro-Trump and heavy on anti-Clinton. If they continue that, the bounce will be lower, if they fold in more pro-Trump the bounce will be higher.
 
qazplm said:
Since almost every conventions ends with a bounce, I will predict a 3 point bounce +/- 1. The average in the last few elections has been around 4 pts so I'm more or less predicting an average bounce.

I thought the first night was a disaster, but the second night was your average convention night albeit light on pro-Trump and heavy on anti-Clinton. If they continue that, the bounce will be lower, if they fold in more pro-Trump the bounce will be higher.
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Tell ya what, I think this election will be determined by the frequency and severity of the following between now and November:

1. Jihad attacks in Europe and the US.
2. BLM motivated cop killings
3. Other BLM nonsense: riots, blocking freeways, disrupting GLBTQ events.
and if Hillary gives the nod for VP to the princess of the Cherokee Nation.
 
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buygreekbonds said:
Tell ya what, I think this election will be determined by the frequency and severity of the following between now and November:

1. Jihad attacks in Europe and the US.
2. BLM motivated cop killings
3. Other BLM nonsense: riots, blocking freeways, disrupting GLBTQ events.
and if Hillary gives the nod for VP to the princess of the Cherokee Nation.
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BGB is always good for an answer to a question no one asked, and no one wanted.
 
The real question for polls will be: how can they be accurate this time? When they tap primary and general voters from the past for their polls and there could be millions this time that haven't voted in 20, 30 years, how can they figure out what will happen as they can't find these non voters?
 
CWS said:
Looking like 6 points per most news outlets
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Several major polls still to go I suspect it levels out around 4. Also the weirdness of back to back conventions, we might not know the final bounces til two weeks from now when both are complete and the faux part of the dem bounce has also subsided.
 
qazplm said:
Several major polls still to go I suspect it levels out around 4. Also the weirdness of back to back conventions, we might not know the final bounces til two weeks from now when both are complete and the faux part of the dem bounce has also subsided.
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It's hard to know the baseline. A few weeks ago he was down nearly double digits and mathematically eliminated per some polls. If that is the baseline, then it is a 10+ point bounce. I guess we'll know in November (or December pending recounts and lawsuits).
 
CWS said:
It's hard to know the baseline. A few weeks ago he was down nearly double digits and mathematically eliminated per some polls. If that is the baseline, then it is a 10+ point bounce. I guess we'll know in November (or December pending recounts and lawsuits).
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http://election.princeton.edu/2016/07/25/the-polls-are-always-bouncing-to-the-left-and-to-the-right/

The baseline comes a couple of weeks from now. 11/12 who led after the end of both conventions went on to win the election. I believe Kerry was the exception and he barely led.
The debates don't tend to change things. There's always the chance for a "black swan" event that changes things one way or another but ordinarily, the person who leads a week or two after both conventions are done is probably the person who wins the election.

Also, I didn't believe polls that had her up 10 pts anyways...polls that swing wildly from 10 pts up to her being down are too wild of swings to have much confidence in that polling methodology.

This is likely a race that ends up somewhere around the 12 election percentage-win-wise...which means 3-4 pts.

Side note: McCain had a nice swing after his convention...he got blown out by 8 in the election.
(again I don't expect a Clinton blow-out, just a solid 3-4 pt win).
 
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CWS said:
It's hard to know the baseline. A few weeks ago he was down nearly double digits and mathematically eliminated per some polls. If that is the baseline, then it is a 10+ point bounce. I guess we'll know in November (or December pending recounts and lawsuits).
Click to expand...

Even folks on Fox News were hesitant about the polls right now. Partially because they weren't exactly 'settled' prior to these conventions - they were not only all over the map by different pollsters, but in the same polls there were inconsistencies. The early ones out they weren't sold on. What you see in a bump in one poll, there's nothing in another. For example, there's a 6 point bump in CNN, but the NBC poll shows an identical race from the poll a week prior. The CNN poll gave Trump a bump among independents, but the NBC poll actually showed a decline for Trump and they did not receive the convention favorably.

So right now it's basically a mess.....I wouldn't really expect things to settle more until September.
 
lbodel said:
Even folks on Fox News were hesitant about the polls right now. Partially because they weren't exactly 'settled' prior to these conventions - they were not only all over the map by different pollsters, but in the same polls there were inconsistencies. The early ones out they weren't sold on. What you see in a bump in one poll, there's nothing in another. For example, there's a 6 point bump in CNN, but the NBC poll shows an identical race from the poll a week prior. The CNN poll gave Trump a bump among independents, but the NBC poll actually showed a decline for Trump and they did not receive the convention favorably.

So right now it's basically a mess.....I wouldn't really expect things to settle more until September.
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yep...after Labor Day, where the polls are then will start to be fairly relevant. Regardless, even the polls right before the election tend to be at least a couple of percentage points off.

I still question how Trump can beat the demographic issues he has regardless of polling. If AAs and Latinos and women come out...and they will, then where does he find enough white men and the women who love them?
 
qazplm said:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ld-trump-n616426?cid=sm_twitter_feed_politics

As I said, more polls were going to come out, and the final bounce will not be anywhere near 6 pts.
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Bet you Trump's bounce from the RNC Convention will be bigger than HRC's bounce from the DNC Convention.

BTW, other sources are showing quite a bit better bounces than NBC is. Your beloved Real Clear Politics average (July 11 - 24) shows Trump now tied with HRC (44.3% to 44.1% as of yesterday).
 
SDBoiler1 said:
Bet you Trump's bounce from the RNC Convention will be bigger than HRC's bounce from the DNC Convention.

BTW, other sources are showing quite a bit better bounces than NBC is. Your beloved Real Clear Politics average (July 11 - 24) shows Trump now tied with HRC (44.3% to 44.1% as of yesterday).
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You mean the average that showed her up less than 3 before the RNC? That average? So 3 versus 0. 4 would be the modern average. 3 would be below average. Both are within the MOE of most polls.

I suspect Hillary's bounce will be roughly the size of Trump's returning to roughly the equilibrium we had before the conventions of Hillary up 3-5 pts.

Of course, final poll numbers usually end up off at least a couple of points.
 
qazplm said:
You mean the average that showed her up less than 3 before the RNC? That average? So 3 versus 0. 4 would be the modern average. 3 would be below average. Both are within the MOE of most polls.

I suspect Hillary's bounce will be roughly the size of Trump's returning to roughly the equilibrium we had before the conventions of Hillary up 3-5 pts.

Of course, final poll numbers usually end up off at least a couple of points.
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Don't you think it's kinda funny? Last week the Dems derided the Repubs for dissensions within the ranks and now this week the circus becomes a three ring. Politics American style. LOL
 
Bruce1 said:
Don't you think it's kinda funny? Last week the Dems derided the Repubs for dissensions within the ranks and now this week the circus becomes a three ring. Politics American style. LOL
Click to expand...

538 has Trumps chances currently higher than Romney achieved at any point in 2012.

Every contested HRC race has followed the same pattern, she starts out with a big lead thanks to the sycophantic press and the phony eminence front they spin for her, and the lead steadily evaporates over time. This race is no different so far, both the primary and general.

New LA Times poll today has Trump 47-40. RCP average has trump up 1. Just wait till the debates and someone actually takes the gloves off against her. She will be lucky not to feint.
 
qazplm said:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/07/25/the-polls-are-always-bouncing-to-the-left-and-to-the-right/

The baseline comes a couple of weeks from now. 11/12 who led after the end of both conventions went on to win the election. I believe Kerry was the exception and he barely led.
The debates don't tend to change things. There's always the chance for a "black swan" event that changes things one way or another but ordinarily, the person who leads a week or two after both conventions are done is probably the person who wins the election.

Also, I didn't believe polls that had her up 10 pts anyways...polls that swing wildly from 10 pts up to her being down are too wild of swings to have much confidence in that polling methodology.

This is likely a race that ends up somewhere around the 12 election percentage-win-wise...which means 3-4 pts.

Side note: McCain had a nice swing after his convention...he got blown out by 8 in the election.
(again I don't expect a Clinton blow-out, just a solid 3-4 pt win).
Click to expand...

-That eight point win had a a lot to due with the financial crisis
-Also had to do a lot with amount of air time and coverage Obama received compared to McCain

I do not see Clinton getting that type of coverage advantage because like him or not-Trump tends to dominate the news. Also, I think a crisis this time around(terror attack, Russia or whoever releasing emails, cop shootings) likely helps Trump.

Was not a fan of the little I saw of Rep Convention. Dems started out rough too IMO. I say maybe a point or two at best for Rep bounce
 
RABA poll is out...first full post DNC poll... shows 10 pt HRC bounce and has her up 15.

Now I don't believe she's up 15, but she's definitely going to get a nice bounce.
 
qazplm said:
RABA poll is out...first full post DNC poll... shows 10 pt HRC bounce and has her up 15.

Now I don't believe she's up 15, but she's definitely going to get a nice bounce.
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This poll is at best an outlier and at worst complete garbage. Clinton 46% Trump 31%? LMAO. Male voters 35% for Trump and 42% for Clinton? NFW. Trump 64% of Republican voters?

The previous poll these people did had Clinton with a 5% lead AFTER the Republican Convention. What is the poll size? Did they only ask voters in Iowa? The poll base is as skewed as any I've seen, and that's saying something. Then again, they tout that Politico and MSNBC uses their data. Hmmmm.....
 
SDBoiler1 said:
This poll is at best an outlier and at worst complete garbage. Clinton 46% Trump 31%? LMAO. Male voters 35% for Trump and 42% for Clinton? NFW. Trump 64% of Republican voters?

The previous poll these people did had Clinton with a 5% lead AFTER the Republican Convention. What is the poll size? Did they only ask voters in Iowa? The poll base is as skewed as any I've seen, and that's saying something. Then again, they tout that Politico and MSNBC uses their data. Hmmmm.....
Click to expand...

Pretty sure when the original poster said they "don't believe she's up 15" - they are saying it's an outlier. But if they are using the same process, it showed that bounce in theory.

I don't really care about the bounces. The polls have been very inconsistent so far. Until there are fewer undecideds (many polls it hovers around 10%), coupled with as long as other candidates are taking 5-15% of the vote, it's going to be very unpredictable. I mean, this week a poll came out showing Clinton with a 1 point lead in Missouri. Three days earlier, a different poll came out showing Trump up 10 points.

I think the polls this election are going to be rather misleading - at least until the early fall. I think this election will be more so on turnout than anything (sounds obvious, but you know what I mean). With it being a rather negative election (negative campaigning, negative feelings on candidates), a lot of people could very well sit out, or at least not be as motivated to vote.
 
TOKenBoiler said:
Here's a guy who says, "Forget the polls. They're not predictive."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...nce-1984-hes-still-trying-to-figure-out-2016/
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They are predictive...to a point. The person leading at this point in time in polling averages usually ends up winning.

1. Despite this professors self-touting accolade, the 2012 election was not "very hard to call." Obama led in most polls most of the time. Demographically he was leading across most metrics. Almost no one (other than apparently Romney) seriously thought he wasn't going to be re-elected, the only question was how much the margin would shrink.

2. That whole article was this professor saying "the polls are always wrong, my system is always right." Of course, the polling average had Obama winning in 12, 08, it had Bush winning in 04, it had a tossup in 00 (which is exactly what that election was), Clinton winning in 96, and in 92. Individual polls can be off (both in who wins and in by how much) but polling averages are generally speaking pretty informative.

Demographics is king. Hillary is winning with all but one. As long as that is the case, she's going to win. If she starts losing AA or Hispanic support, or if those groups significantly decrease turnout from 12 then maybe we are talking something different...but in 2016 no matter how many factors or what theory you are under, you cannot lose 75% of Hispanics, 90+% of AAs, and a majority of women, and win the EC.
 
CWS said:
You have an interesting sense of humor if you LOL at two numbers that are statistically indistinguishable based on margin of error.
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A 7 vice 4 bounce is not statistically indistinguishable. It's an average of multiple polls. It's not a single poll. Many of those polls showed double digit changes or high single digit changes.

I know it's hard to admit though, I get it.
 
+10 Fox News
+15 Mclatchy/Marist
+9 NBC

You folks still holding out that they got the same bump? Or has reality set in?
 
qazplm said:
+10 Fox News
+15 Mclatchy/Marist
+9 NBC

You folks still holding out that they got the same bump? Or has reality set in?
Click to expand...
Some of these polls take into account Trump's recent implosion over a week after the DNC Convention, caused partially by the Khizr Khan debacle no doubt, but other things as well. This bump is not all attributable to the Democrat Convention. Even you can admit that, right?
 
SDBoiler1 said:
Some of these polls take into account Trump's recent implosion over a week after the DNC Convention, caused partially by the Khizr Khan debacle no doubt, but other things as well. This bump is not all attributable to the Democrat Convention. Even you can admit that, right?
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lmao I love how you made a prediction, it was dead wrong, but somehow I'm the one who is supposed to admit something.

Hilarious.
 
qazplm said:
lmao I love how you made a prediction, it was dead wrong, but somehow I'm the one who is supposed to admit something.

Hilarious.
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Some of the polls you cited include more than the Convention bounce. That's what you should admit.

Yes, because of some of Trump's inability to stay on message vs. HRC, the DNC Convention gave HRC a few point larger bounce than Trump got from the RNC Convention. This is true.
 
qazplm said:
Since almost every conventions ends with a bounce, I will predict a 3 point bounce +/- 1. The average in the last few elections has been around 4 pts so I'm more or less predicting an average bounce.

I thought the first night was a disaster, but the second night was your average convention night albeit light on pro-Trump and heavy on anti-Clinton. If they continue that, the bounce will be lower, if they fold in more pro-Trump the bounce will be higher.
Click to expand...
qazplm said:
Since almost every conventions ends with a bounce, I will predict a 3 point bounce +/- 1. The average in the last few elections has been around 4 pts so I'm more or less predicting an average bounce.

I thought the first night was a disaster, but the second night was your average convention night albeit light on pro-Trump and heavy on anti-Clinton. If they continue that, the bounce will be lower, if they fold in more pro-Trump the bounce will be higher.
Click to expand...
636057706413661891-Bump.jpg
 
qazplm said:
+10 Fox News
+15 Mclatchy/Marist
+9 NBC

You folks still holding out that they got the same bump? Or has reality set in?
Click to expand...

qazplm said:
lmao I love how you made a prediction, it was dead wrong, but somehow I'm the one who is supposed to admit something.

Hilarious.
Click to expand...


Always thought he was a long shot, not voting for him regardless, but would have had a better chance had he come back to the party more.

But look at recent polls and figure out why this is not a 'bump' for Clinton .
 
SDBoiler1 said:
Some of the polls you cited include more than the Convention bounce. That's what you should admit.

Yes, because of some of Trump's inability to stay on message vs. HRC, the DNC Convention gave HRC a few point larger bounce than Trump got from the RNC Convention. This is true.
Click to expand...
your evidence for this is...?
 
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