Ya, that's not a huge stretch considering 75% of the field fails to make the second weekend, and only 1 of 7 B1G teams is seeded in the top 4. It might be unusual for a power conference to fail to make the S16, but I'm sure it's not unprecedented.
One thing that concerns me is that two of the B1G's best bets are Purdue, a team that has had trouble getting out of the first round lately, and Michigan, a red-hot team that could go a long way but could just as easily get bounced the first time its shooting goes cold.