Love for Carsen
- Thread starter punaj
- Start date
Still... 6 for 17.
Unfortunately, I still have concerns about the number of shots he takes versus makes...
Hopeful that he overcomes it, but it seems to remain problematic to me...
Unfortunately, I still have concerns about the number of shots he takes versus makes...
Hopeful that he overcomes it, but it seems to remain problematic to me...
I'm going to wait several games into the season to form an opinion. But yeah, touting a guy on a day when he has 1 assist to go with 16 points on 17 shots seems weird to me.
I still think he'll be way more efficient than last year, but until he is I don't care how explosive he is.
I still think he'll be way more efficient than last year, but until he is I don't care how explosive he is.
I saw in another thread the conjecture that the Boilers realistically could have 3 people hitting 50% of their 3 point attempts (I realize that is pretty "iffy" but not crazy). Assuming they approach that, then Carson (or anyone) has to hit 75% from 2 to equalize that production level... holy sh#t
I am not trying to argue, but what shooting percentage would Carson have make in order satisfy you guys worries ? Would 40 % from 3 and 50 % inside the arc ease your concerns? Or is it the amount of shots that concerns you?
That is crazy. I bet there hasn't been a team in history that has had 3 players shoot 50%+ from 3. This will not be the first team to do it. Better to temper your expectations now, rather then have you disappointed when none of our players shoot 50%+ from 3. Mathias was our best 3 pt shooter last year, and he would have to improve 5% from 3 to reach 50%.
Wouldn't even take that for me. 37 and 48 maybe.
Last year Points Per Shot (FTs traditionally count as 0.44 FGA)
Carsen: 0.98
Not Carsen: 1.23
He was also 7th in an 8-man rotation in assists per minute, ahead only of Haas.
I think it's fair to say he must be much, much more efficient than last year to warrant the number of shots he projects to take.
Carsen: 0.98
Not Carsen: 1.23
He was also 7th in an 8-man rotation in assists per minute, ahead only of Haas.
I think it's fair to say he must be much, much more efficient than last year to warrant the number of shots he projects to take.
That was me and it was a typo...fixed to 40% from each starter not named Haas.
From watching live, out if those 17 shots, I didn't get the impression he was shot hunting very often. He was one of the more fun players to watch, and it looks like his midrange game, ball handling, and defense are areas he improved in. I was actually surprised when I saw he took 17.
I agree though, with shooters like Mathias and someone like Haas with a ridiculous efficiency rate of scoring 2 points when he gets deep or getting fouled, Carsen will need to shoot better if he takes 15 shots a game.
To further your point: If I remember correctly Carsen did shoot 40% from 3 range during the BIG.
Explosive, in my mind does not mean consistent. There will be 6/17 outings with sixteen points and there will be 12/18 outings for thirty five points. The real question is, does his overall play in each game benefit the team. There is a hell of a lot more happening in basketball than shooting percentage. I can live with the efficiency volatility as long as his other contributions remain.
That's what I am trying to understand, Is it that he's not making the shots that bother people about Carson, or the amount of shots that bother them. My son would keep complaining last year about his play and I kept telling him that he is just a freshman. Maybe people just don't like the way he plays. Myself I love the way he plays. I guess , maybe in the back of my mind I fear he contracts Ronnie Johnson syndrome,on the other hand he's NO Ronnie Johnson.
Shooting percentage and shot selection can't be separated. Carsen shot 41 percent INSIDE the arc last year. That means many of his 2 point attempts had less than a 41 percent chance of going in. Those are bad shots.
And I don't care about hot/cold shooters or volatility. I do care, however, about average production. His average production last year was a quarter of a point less per shot than the rest of the team. That matters. It just does. His ceiling matters. His energy and spurtability and explosiveness matter. But his actual production matters too. A lot.
I think his production will improve greatly from last year. But if it doesn't, we can't allow him to take so many shots.
Thnx. But even at 40% on 3s the equalization factor is 60% on 2s and as long as Carson hovers at his current level and volume, Purdue is giving up a lot of likely points.
Again, I hope that he progresses and is not only exciting but an efficient option.
That is absolutely true. However, my issue with that is his overall per-centage takes both those good and bad days into account and seems to be problematic to me.
Got ya. I do understand your worries. I should have been more clear. By overall, I mean does he disrupt the opponent offensive flow with his defense , does he hold an opposing scorer to low efficiency, does he get rebounds does he get the ball up the floor quickly creating advantages for teammates, etc.? If he does not do those kinds of things AND is inefficient shooting the ball, that is when I would become concerned. But on days when it is all there and high level, look out. I am guessing the older he gets the consistent he will get.
Let him shoot whenever and wherever he wants. Have any you guys bitching about his shot selection ever play ball past grade school? He is a player. He is a joy to watch. Did you guys bitch about Willie Dean, or was that before the internet? No one in the big can defend him. Just enjoy while we have him. Glass half full, not empty. Please.
This is a good point. For those who watched the game, how was Carson's defense? It is usually good, but overshadowed by his offense.
It's not glass half empty on Carsen; it's glass half full on Purdue.
Willie Deane never played on a Purdue team with half as much shooting talent and offensive efficiency as we have now. I believe that changes Carsen's role, as well as the standard.
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Wholeheartedly agree that all of those things factor into his, and any player's, value to the team and the amount of playing time.
That being said, I do think that it's fair to assess the shooting issue separately as well, since reining in shooting attempts doesn't necessarily equate to diminishing PT.
I would be a lot more joyful with the ball in the hoop more regularly, and hopefully that
will come this year.
Given his 38% shooting last season, if, as you suggest no one can defend him, does that mean that he just can't shoot?
I have the same concerns , I know the kid is a talent. I just find myself uncomfortable when he gets the ball. Hopefully he proves me wrong and makes it to where we want him to shoot
Very good point 70. I was reacting to the idea of reduced time which I think I just assumed! Shot selection is tricky with a kid like him. You want the good choices but you don't want to stifle the magic either. That's why coach gets the big bucks.
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LOL... That was my first reaction as well when I read your comment, then thought "Wait a minute..."
If Carsen can develop a pull-up 12-15 foot jumper, and/or a one-handed runner like E'twaun Moore was so good at, his fg percentage would instantly improve by 5% or more. I liked his aggressiveness as a freshman, but I think one of the biggest reasons his shooting percentage was so low was because 2, 3, 4 times a game he'd attack the hoop and then either get his shot blocked, or he'd have to throw up a circus shot to avoid the block. His 2-point fg percentage may have been 41%, but I bet his percentage on shots inside the paint was even worse than that.
The glass is full -- no -- overflowing. The problem is that Coach Painter benched Carson and limited his playing time late in the season last year due to poor decision-making. He's a year older and wiser. He should dominate this year.
Yes, the internet was alive and well when Willie Dean was playing.
Its not really 60 percent on twos it would be less than that depending on how good he is at getting to the line and shooting free throws. Based on his current rates last year assuming he wasn't fouled shooting 3s he would of had to shoot 57.6% from 2pt
Yes and no it means that him looking for his own shot should be the last the Purdue does.
By that I mean the 1.23 number is boosted from fast break, and good looks from running the offense. There are times however when the their isn't much time and a guy like Carson is valuable because he can get his shot whenever while a hyper efficient scorer like mathias can't. Thats when he should look for his shot.
All other times he should only shoot if he is wide open from 3 or has an oppurtunity for a layup or to get to the line. But his overal efficiency will be on the low side by nature unless he can generate a lot of high quality looks for him or get his own shot in a more efficent manner
Hard to really get a read because there were frequent issues in the first half..mainly losing the player they were guarding and giving up buckets. Nojel has a bad one where he got caught looking at the ball and the player made a good cut behind his back. Nojel recovered but not before the player hit a jumper. Carsen appeared to be solid on defense and I’ll make a point that correlates to his offense: If he can learn to be selective in his aggressive attempts on defense similarly to needing to become more conscious about his shot selection on offense (essentially almost an even keeled aggression)...he’ll become a terror for other teams to prepare for.
If you are CMP, you don’t coach it out of him...rather you allow the player to learn through experience. Carsen has the ability to turn a game from a close contest to a comfortable lead by himself through his defense and his ability to get red hot on offense for stretches. I don’t think there isn’t another player in the conference like that except possibly Bridges from MSU.
CE is the most dynamic scorer PU has had in years. He's also the best G we've ever had not named Moore. AND, he's only a Soph.
He's not a player like PG who is just going to try and dump the ball down on the block and shoot open 3s. CE is a game changer and someone the defense has to worry about then entire length of the court. And, Painter is probably using the freedom his gives CE as a recruiting tool to dispel the perception that Painter and PU are not guard friendly.
You take the good with the bad with a player like CE and let him figure out how to make more good.
He's not a player like PG who is just going to try and dump the ball down on the block and shoot open 3s. CE is a game changer and someone the defense has to worry about then entire length of the court. And, Painter is probably using the freedom his gives CE as a recruiting tool to dispel the perception that Painter and PU are not guard friendly.
You take the good with the bad with a player like CE and let him figure out how to make more good.
I don’t think that he is Painter’s best guard not named Moore yet, but I agree that he has the potential to become one of Painter’s best two guards.
As of now, I think that Mathias is the best guard on the team, but I will not be at surprised if I am saying Carsen is the best by Christmas. I think that Mathias is currently a better defender, passer, and rebounder, but I mainly need to see Carsen become more efficient. He doesn’t need to be nearly as efficient as Mathias or PJ, but I need a little more consistency out of him. Specifically, when he takes a quick shot at the beginning of a possession, I want it to be a high percentage shot. (Later in the possession, I have no issue with him creating a difficult shot).
If Carsen can improve his consistency, (time will tell), he is exactly the type of player that can take the team to another level.
I'm a huge Carsen fan. But he got a lot of layups blocked during the WUG and had me cringing at times. If he can figure out how to pull up for a 10 foot bank, build a consistent floater or perfect the dish to an open teammate in that situation, he will take is game to a new level. I do love it when he tries to dunk on a power forward or center though. That is fun to watch.
No way is Mathias a better guard than CE. DM is basically a shooting guard. He's not going to create his own shot of create a shot for someone else. He's a nice college player and does some things well but he's not the difference between a team making the Final Four or not. CE could be that type of player.
I agree with your last point that CE has the potential to be a real difference maker, but Mathias was clearly a better player last year and until Carsen proves it on the court in games that count, I am not going to call him a better player than Mathias. That could change quickly for me, but I have to see it.
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