Key Players:
Purdue:
David Blough:153/230 66.5% 2073 yds 13 TD 2 INT
Rondale Moore: 57 rec 728 yds 12.8 avr 7 TD 11 att 163 yds 1 TD (16 KO ret 318 yds 19.9 avr)
DJ Knox: 103 att 668 yds 6.5 avr 8 TD 10 rec 71 yds
Markell Jones: 55 att 308 yds 5.6 ave 2 TD
Isaac Zico: 22 rec 449 yds 20.4 avr 3 TD
Brycen Hopkins: 22 rec 389 yds 17.7 avr 2 TD
Jared Sparks: 23 rec 221 yds
Derrick Barnes: 48 tkl 4 TKL 3 sk
Markus Bailey: 58 tkl 6 TFL 4.5 sk 1 INT 1TD
Cornell Jones: 45 tkl 11 TFL 3.5 sk
Jacob Thieneman: 54 tkl 4.5 TFL 3 sk
Kenneth Major: 26 tkl 3 INT 2 PD
Antonio Blackmon: 41 tkl 1.5 TFL 1 INT 5 PD
Key Injuries:
Cole Herdman: Probable - Played against OSU and appears likely to play against MSU
Elijah Sindelar: Probable - Hasn't seen the field since his injury during the week of the Missouri game.
Lorenzo Neal: Questionable - Availability depends on recovery and treatment during the week
Kenneth Major: Questionable - Availability depends on recovery and treatment during the week
Michigan State:
QB Brian Lewerke: 140/250 56% 1653 yds 8TD 7INT 59 rush 79 yds (OUT)
QB Rocky Lombardi: 1/2 50% 9 yds 0TD 0INT
RB Connor Heyward: 53 att 194 yds 3.7 avr 3TD 21 rec 133 yds
RB LJ Scott: 40 att 128 yds 3.2 avr 6 rec 88 yds
WR Darrell Stewart: 17 rec 166 yds (Questionable)
WR Brian Sowards: 10 rec 129 yds (Questionable)
LB Joe Bachie: 53 tkl 3.5 TFL 1 sk 1 INT
LB Andrew Dowell: 51 tkl 6 TFL 3 sk
CB/WR Justin Layne: 47 tkl 1INT
LB/DE Kenny Willekes: 41 tkl 11 TFL 5.5 sk
DL Raquan Williams: 25 tkl 7 TFL 1.5 sk
Key Injuries:
CB Josh Butler: Probable - Butler sat the game against UM and his status is unknown against Purdue (10 tkl 2 passes defended) -- Dantonio stated Butler is very close and they'll see where he is at this weekend. Has been a sub CB in his career at MSU and appeared to finally break the starting position this season before being injured.
DL Mufi Hunt: Probable (no season stats) -- Dressed the last four games but has yet to see a snap.
WR Jalin Nailor: Probable - Reports state Nailor will be available against Purdue after missing the previous four games.
CB Josiah Scott: Probable (played in all 12 games as a freshman)--Needs to sit the first half due to a targeting suspension from last season in the Holiday Bowl.
WR Brian Sowards: Questionable - Sowards has a lower body injury. (10 rec for 128 yds)
WR Darrell Stewart Jr: Questionable - Status is unknown with an undisclosed injury. (17 rec 166 yds) Played hurt last week but appears to be healthy enough to play.
RB Alante Thomas: Questionable - Thomas provides depth for MSU has only carried the ball once all season. With LJ Scott back in the lineup, Alante's possible absence isn't a factor unless multiple RB's are out.
QB Brian Lewerke: Doubtful/Out - Lewerke hurt his throwing shoulder in the game prior to UM and looked limited during the Michigan game. If he is unavailable, Lomardi will be available. Reports state Lewerke is out for the Purdue game.
OL Matt Allen: doubtful/out - Allen suffered a lower leg injury against UM and missed most of the second half. Dantonio has stated it's 'sort of an unknown right now.' Reported out against Purdue.
P Tyler Hunt: Doubtful/Out -- Reports state that backup P Tyler Hunt was injured during the week in practice and will be unavailable against Purdue. This places backup QB Rocky Lombadi as the main punter.
WR Felton Davis: OUT (31 rec for 474 yds and 4 TD in 6 games)
WR Cody White: OUT (20 rec for 300 yds in 4 games)
OL Dmitri Douglas: OUT
DE Dillon Alexander: OUT (limited role on DL)
OL David Beedle: OUT
P Jake Hartbarger: OUT (4 year starter who averages 42 yards per punt)
CB Tyson Smith: OUT (suffered a stroke in 2017 season)
Team Stats:
Purdue:
Offensive PPG: 35.7 ypg (31st)
Points Allowed: 22.7 ypg (t 39th)
Passing Offense: 337.6 ypg (6th)
Rushing Offense: 176.7 ypg (64th)
Total Offense: 514.3 ypg (10th)
3rd Down Conversion %: .448% (25th)
Red Zone Offense: .917% (22nd) (31/34 - 20 TD 11 FG)
Passing Defense: 296.4 ypg (126th)
Rushing Defense: 136.7 ypg (41st)
Total Defense: 433.1 ypg (103rd)
Defense 3rd Down Conversion %: .337% (33rd)
Red Zone Defense: .731% (14th) (19/26 - 11 TD 8 FG)
Team Tackles for Loss: 5.4 / game (t 84th)
Turnover Margin: 0 (t 66)
Time of Possession: 32 mpg (27th)
Net Punting: 39.87 avr (34th)
Michigan State:
Offensive PPG: 23.4 ppg (107th)
Points Allowed: 22.1 ppg (37th)
Passing Offense: 244 ypg (54th)
Rushing Offense: 107.6 ypg (121st)
Total Offense: 351.6 ypg (108th)
3rd Down Conversion %: .310% (126th)
Red Zone Offense: .885% (t 31st) (23/26 - 16 TD 7 FG)
Passing Defense: 275.7 ypg (115th)
Rushing Defense: 79.6 ypg (t 2nd)
Total Defense: 355.3 ypg (43rd)
Defense 3rd Down Conversion %: .346% (38th)
Red Zone Defense: .778% (t38th) (14/18 - 9TD 5 FG)
Team Tackles for Loss: 6.4 / game (50th)
Turnover Margin: +1 (56th)
Time of Possession: 32 mpg (25th)
Net Punting: 37.35 avr (74th) (MSU is without their starting punter)
ESPN's FPI has MSU as a 57.1% favorite (10/24/18)
MSU is currently a -1.5 point favorite (UPDATED 10/25/18)
O/U is 50.5
Outlook:
When looking at the statistics in depth, you'll see where MSU struggles and where Dantonio is likely to try and focus his attention in his game plan this week. With the return of LJ Scott and the loss of their top two WR's in Davis and White, look for MSU to attempt to establish the run to control the time of possession and keep Purdue's offense off the field and shorten the game as much as possible. With another three WR's listed as questionable as of 10/24, MSU could be looking at a severely limited game plan as they have had to move a CB to WR to maintain some what of a proper depth chart. When MSU is able to get inside the red zone, they have shown to be effective and a lot of that comes from the pro style offense that they employ where they can get in to their play action passing game. Due to the injuries, MSU will have to rely more and more on their defense and if Purdue can sustain drives, hit big plays, and make MSU play from behind, it bodes well for a Purdue team that is looking to win the 5th game straight after starting 0-3.
On Purdue's side, look for Brohm to employ more ways to get Rondale the ball in space to take advantage of MSU's porous passing defense. This is a game where the likes of Zico, Hopkins, and Sparks will be needed because MSU will likely employ everything they have as a rush defense to force Purdue to become one dimensional. If Knox hits 100 yards rushing, it likely means Purdue wins.
UPDATE 10/26/18:
The comedy of injuries continues for MSU as backup P Tyler Hunt has been reported as injured during the week of practice. This, on top of Lewerke being reported as out as well, puts Lombardi as the starting QB and P this week. I'll likely believe it when I see it but I'm sure there is at least one other player on that roster that has experience punting the ball in high school that can do this so you aren't putting your now starting QB in harms way. If these injury updates show to be true tomorrow, I'll believe MSU may simply try to shorten the game by giving their RB's at least 35 rushing attempts and allowing their defense to try and win a field position battle. With the way Purdue has played over the last 5 weeks on offense, I believe Purdue ends up pulling away late as they have shown a propensity to get stronger as the game goes on in to the second half.
Purdue: 36
MSU: 20
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