Looking Ahead: Ohio State @ Purdue

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Key Players:
Purdue:
David Blough:128/187 68.4% 1695 yds 10TD 2INT 160.1 rat
Rondale Moore: 45 rec 558 yds 5TD 9 att 139 yds 1TD (1,007 total yards)
Isaac Zico: 20 rec 399 yds 20.0 avr 2TD
Brycen Hopkins: 19 rec 352 yds 18.5 avr 2TD
DJ Knox: 87 att 540 yds 6.2 avr 5TD
Marcus Bailey: 43 tkl 5.5TFL 4.5 sk
Cornel Jones: 40 tkl 11.0TKL 3.5sk
Jacob Thieneman: 45 tkl 4.5TFL 3.0 sk 3PD
Derrick Barnes: 42 tkl 4.0TFL 3.0 sk

Ohio State:
QB Dwayne Haskins: 175/242 72.3% 2331 yds 28TD 4INT 188.1 rat
RB J.K. Dobbins: 109 att 497 yds 4.6 avr 4TD
RB Mike Weber: 87 att 471 yds 5.4 avr 3TD
WR Paris Campbell: 43 rec 557 yds 13 avr 7TD
WR K.J. Hill: 40 rec 551 yds 13.8 avr 4TD
WR Terry McLaren: 16 rec 332 yds 20.8 avr 7TD
S Jordan Fuller: 39 tkl 1.5TFL
LB Pete Werner: 28 tkl 5.5TFL 3 sk 5PD
DL Dre'Mont Jones: 21 tkl 8.5TFL 5.5 sk 1INT
DE Chase Young: 19 tkl 8.0TFL 4.0 sk

Team Stats:
Purdue:
Passing Offense: 330.8 ypg (7th)
Rushing Offense: 179.3 ypg (59th)
Total Offense: 510.2 (10th)
3rd Down Conversion %: .456% (25th)
Red Zone Offense: .903% (27th)
Passing Defense: 267.5 ypg (108th)
Rushing Defense: 146.8 ypg (53rd)
Total Defense: 414.3 ypg (92nd)
Defense 3rd Down Conversion %: .293% (11th)
Red Zone Defense: .810% (53rd) - 17/21 (11 TD - 6 FG)
Team Tackles for Loss: 6.0 (65th)
Turnover Margin: -1 (77th)
Time of Possession: 32 min / game (22nd)

Ohio State:
Passing Offense: 371.4 ypg (3rd)
Rushing Offense: 185.4 ypg (53rd)
Total Offense: 556.9 ypg (2nd)
3rd Down Conversion %: .490% (12th)
Red Zone Offense: .813% (87th)
Passing Defense: 221.6 ypg (59th)
Rushing Defense: 148.0 ypg (54th)
Total Defense: 369.6 ypg (58th)
Defense 3rd Down Conversion %: .316% (23rd)
Red Zone Defense: .875% (97th) - 14/16 (10 TD - 4 FG)
Team Tackles for Loss: 7.9/game (18th)
Turnover Margin: +7 (13th)
Time of Possession: 32 min / game (25th)

ESPN's FPI: OSU 84% (10/18)
Betting Line: OSU -13

Outlook:
Both teams seem content to try and hit big plays in the passing game and using that passing game to setup their running game to put the defense in a difficult decision. When looking at the stats, not much separates Purdue from OSU with the exception of a few key instances like TO margin and passing defense.

For Purdue to have a shot, they will need to control the big swings of momentum, not turn the ball over, get at least 2 TO's, and score on at least 2 big passing plays to stretch the defense enough for running lanes for Knox, Jones, and Moore (on the edges).

Purdue: 32
OSU: 41

 

[purduepat1969]

Don't disagree with your analysis. Im hoping the game will be close for at least 3 quarters. And then Purdue starts pulling away!!

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Don't like projected weather report of 70% chance of rain with 16mph winds at kickoff. Reminds me of EMU conditions.

Both teams need the pass...but I think OSU needs it a little more. Purdue has experience in those same conditions while OSU does not. Weather conditions usually favor the home team. As long as it isn't swirling around and Blough can hit on the quick hitters...I think it gives Purdue a bit of an edge, IMO.

 

[wolve1972]

Don't disagree with your analysis. Im hoping the game will be close for at least 3 quarters. And then Purdue starts pulling away!!

Obviously, being a Michigan fan, I'll be pulling for you guys hard. But the only issue I have with your statement is Purdue pulling away in the 4th quarter. That's OSU's big trademark - late surges that puts games away mostly to their depth taking over late after tiring the other team down. I do believe this game is winnable for you guys but I think you have you build a lead and then hold on. I'm predicting a 45 to 40 like game with (fingers crossed) Purdue coming out on top.

 

[wolve1972]

To add, the other advantage you guys have is you're kind of playing with house money. Most consider OSU the heavy favorite and the pressure is on them.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

I think whichever team can establish some semblance of a running game will have the edge. Both teams can run, but don't really want to it seems. At some point though the offenses need to have a little bit of consistent conservatism to keep the ball away from the other team.

That, and if either team gets +2 or more in turnovers.

I will be curious to see how much pressure Holt dials up. I don't have them handy, but I read a tweet about Haskins' #s vs pressure/non-pressure. The numbers are pretty staggering. But can we afford to leave Mackey, Major and Blackmon on islands against their playmakers?

 

[motkaboo]

I think whichever team can establish some semblance of a running game will have the edge. Both teams can run, but don't really want to it seems. At some point though the offenses need to have a little bit of consistent conservatism to keep the ball away from the other team.

That, and if either team gets +2 or more in turnovers.

I will be curious to see how much pressure Holt dials up. I don't have them handy, but I read a tweet about Haskins' #s vs pressure/non-pressure. The numbers are pretty staggering. But can we afford to leave Mackey, Major and Blackmon on islands against their playmakers?

OSU 44 PU 19...PU pass defense will get smoked for 350+ yds and 4 TD's

 

[FirstDownB]

Don't like projected weather report of 70% chance of rain with 16mph winds at kickoff. Reminds me of EMU conditions.

That is perhaps even more scary than the opponent.

 

[purduepat1969]

Obviously, being a Michigan fan, I'll be pulling for you guys hard. But the only issue I have with your statement is Purdue pulling away in the 4th quarter. That's OSU's big trademark - late surges that puts games away mostly to their depth taking over late after tiring the other team down. I do believe this game is winnable for you guys but I think you have you build a lead and then hold on. I'm predicting a 45 to 40 like game with (fingers crossed) Purdue coming out on top.

I should have added "tongue in cheek" at the end. I was only kidding...

 

[purduepat1969]

OSU 44 PU 19...PU pass defense will get smoked for 350+ yds and 4 TD's

I'm assuming you're either an OSU fan or an IU troll. Either way, i can tell you this. The Purdue offense will put up more than 16 points on that OSU defense. Even if Purdue does get "smoked" for 350+ yards.

 

[72Boiler]

OSU 44 PU 19...PU pass defense will get smoked for 350+ yds and 4 TD's

Stupid is, as stupid does, motkaboo.

 

[FirstDownB]

Really, REALLY not liking this weather forecast. Winds gusting 30-40 mph. Our downfield passing game relies much more on accuracy, whereas OSU has more receivers that can adjust and "go get the ball". Zico showed some ability to do that at Illinois, but this is a whole different animal. Expect the OSU defense to challenge us to throw deep. If we can't this game could go downhill fast.

 

[Drutus]

I think whichever team can establish some semblance of a running game will have the edge. Both teams can run, but don't really want to it seems. At some point though the offenses need to have a little bit of consistent conservatism to keep the ball away from the other team.

That, and if either team gets +2 or more in turnovers.

I will be curious to see how much pressure Holt dials up. I don't have them handy, but I read a tweet about Haskins' #s vs pressure/non-pressure. The numbers are pretty staggering. But can we afford to leave Mackey, Major and Blackmon on islands against their playmakers?

Run game will be critical in the first half with forecast of 20mph winds and wet conditions. Some good returns to O-line are good for Buckeyes this week and hope they go with a set TE to help Prince on the outside. We have 2 great backs in Weber (playing injured) and Dobbins. Both have ability to create yards with little running options. On the other side, you have Moore. He is fun to watch and kid and move in space to get those extra yards or break a big run which Ohio State is great at giving up on D. Chase Young is not Bosa but is coming into his own and will become a dominant D. I hope Arnette returns to his safety position this week as he is our best safety and listed questionable. Slants and quick throws kill this D backfield. Hope they adjust. Will be a fun game regardless and glad these 2 teams are playing again. 5 years is too long

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Run game will be critical in the first half with forecast of 20mph winds and wet conditions. Some good returns to O-line are good for Buckeyes this week and hope they go with a set TE to help Prince on the outside. We have 2 great backs in Weber (playing injured) and Dobbins. Both have ability to create yards with little running options. On the other side, you have Moore. He is fun to watch and kid and move in space to get those extra yards or break a big run which Ohio State is great at giving up on D. Chase Young is not Bosa but is coming into his own and will become a dominant D. I hope Arnette returns to his safety position this week as he is our best safety and listed questionable. Slants and quick throws kill this D backfield. Hope they adjust. Will be a fun game regardless and glad these 2 teams are playing again. 5 years is too long

Thanks Drutus.

 

[KentuckyBoiler]

As Drew texted to Joey Elliott a few years ago right before the OSU game back then, go out and shock the world. Hope we can do that again. Wonder if Drew will send something similar to David?

 

[boilers08]

Where is everyone seeing the report of "rain all night"? The forecast I'm looking at shows it will be clear by game time. Windy, yes; rain, no.

 

[boilers08]

I stand corrected. You are correct. When I checked yesterday it said 70% chance rain starting at 7;00pm?

Shows how quickly the forecast can change...so here's hoping it stays put!

 

[KJBBoiler]

Yeah, no rain and the wind dies down to 13mph by 8:00. Looks like it will be cold.

 

[JohnnyDoeBoiler]

Yeah, no rain and the wind dies down to 13mph by 8:00. Looks like it will be cold.

Big choice here: With weather becoming a smaller factor as the game goes on...do you go for the choice of kicking with the wind to start the game and putting OSU against the wind in the first Q or try to play the wind for the second quarter and second half by receiving the kick?

 

[KJBBoiler]

Big choice here: With weather becoming a smaller factor as the game goes on...do you go for the choice of kicking with the wind to start the game and putting OSU against the wind in the first Q or try to play the wind for the second quarter and second half by receiving the kick?

Interesting question, if it really is above 20mph of wind in the first quarter then I would pick to kick and play with the wind at our backs to start. Any advantage you can get to start off is key. We can't do what we did against NW & Mizz and get behind to start.

 

[Pu71indy]

Don't like projected weather report of 70% chance of rain with 16mph winds at kickoff. Reminds me of EMU conditions.

What's scary is that EMU passed very well in these conditions due mainly to a lack of pass rush. We did not but we chose to run the ball a lot more.