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LA Times Analysis of Trump Tax Cuts

It is important to note that we don't even have 18 months of data to work from in regards to the impact of the tax cuts, but the analysis by the CRS does point to a conclusion that anyone who has taken an econ class already knew. Giving money to rich people who don't need it doesn't stimulate anything at the national level. But hey, those people at Verizon or wherever got $1k bonus so it's all good.

The tax cuts and healthcare are going to be, and should be, the main two talking points going into the 2020 debates.
 
Lol... and today I see that the Presidential Medal of Freedom has been awarded to tax policy wonk Art Laffer, author of
“Trumponomics: Inside the America First Plan to Revive Our Economy.”
 
Awful quiet in here for this being one of the few significant pieces of legislation the Trump administration has been able to pass in 2.5 years...
 
Awful quiet in here for this being one of the few significant pieces of legislation the Trump administration has been able to pass in 2.5 years...

Whether it's the tax cuts or relieving government restrictions, no one can dispute the economic numbers.
 
Well, I suppose you could have done the same thing that I did briefly and looked the Congressional Research Service information upon which the LA Times based its assessment to decide. Looks like a pretty accurate assessment to me, but what do I know...
Fyi, the CRS download is available at
https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20190522_R45736_8a1214e903ee2b719e00731791d60f26d75d35f4.pdf
No offense, but reading your posts tends to lead me to a conclusion that's anything anti-Trump is a great thing for you and others who hate the man. Just sayin'.
 
No offense, but reading your posts tends to lead me to a conclusion that's anything anti-Trump is a great thing for you and others who hate the man. Just sayin'.
No offense taken. I think you may have me backwards. My antipathy for the President has to do with him. If his presidency was having great outcomes, I could be very happy for the outcomes and still dislike him. I never have liked his schtick and am appalled by it as President, it's really that simple. Excess self-aggrandizement, non-stop fallacious and misleading statements, apparent misogyny, lack of strategic goals, disinterest in actual problem solving are just not my cup of tea, nor do I believe they lead to a better country.
 
No offense taken. I think you may have me backwards. My antipathy for the President has to do with him. If his presidency was having great outcomes, I could be very happy for the outcomes and still dislike him. I never have liked his schtick and am appalled by it as President, it's really that simple. Excess self-aggrandizement, non-stop fallacious and misleading statements, apparent misogyny, lack of strategic goals, disinterest in actual problem solving are just not my cup of tea, nor do I believe they lead to a better country.
So, Trump has done nothing good? Really.
 
Whether it's the tax cuts or relieving government restrictions, no one can dispute the economic numbers.
Yep, cheap money always looks great in the short term.

Love Trump all you want. A history of loose money should be fresh in the mind of anyone over the age of thirty. Low taxes, low interest rates, no/lax regulation... you should be able to remember what happens. Wear your MAGA hat proudly, but protect your family according to what you have witnessed a few times in your life.
 
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Yep, cheap money always looks great in the short term.

Love Trump all you want. A history of loose money should be fresh in the mind of anyone over the age of thirty. Low taxes, low interest rates, no/lax regulation... you should be able to remember what happens. Wear your MAGA hat proudly, but protect your family according to what you have witnessed a few times in your life.

I guess the surging Trump lead economy doesn't meet your standards because Trump tweets.
Yes, I lived through the Carter years with 20% interest rates and government bail outs. Carter was a good man but an absolute cluster f***k as a president.

Give me low interest rates, low taxes and common sense environmental regulations.
 
I guess the surging Trump lead economy doesn't meet your standards because Trump tweets.
Yes, I lived through the Carter years with 20% interest rates and government bail outs. Carter was a good man but an absolute cluster f***k as a president.

Give me low interest rates, low taxes and common sense environmental regulations.
Things don't happen in a bubble. With any economic measure you're excited about, look at the trend over the few years prior to Trump taking over. You remind me of Sean Hannity, 6 days in to Obama's presidency talking about the Obama economy results with no mention of the crash that he came into, context escapes you.
 
Things don't happen in a bubble. With any economic measure you're excited about, look at the trend over the few years prior to Trump taking over. You remind me of Sean Hannity, 6 days in to Obama's presidency talking about the Obama economy results with no mention of the crash that he came into, context escapes you.

I've posted in the past that the President is partially responsible for the economy. Obama inherited a mess but the economy was waiting to explode and he held it back.
Trump, to his credit did what was needed to get it going. People also compare Obama's job creation data to that of Trump's as a means of showing Obama had the Country on the right track.
A person with a shred of common sense realizes job creation data is miscued after a recession, when job numbers are dismal. Trump's job creation numbers and economic growth have been outstanding for 2+ years.
The work force is the largest in US history.
FYI the economy was terrible under Carter when taxes were high and interest rates were at historic high levels.
Reagan came in and did what Trump did and the economy boomed. Lather rinse repeat.
 
Whether it's the tax cuts or relieving government restrictions, no one can dispute the economic numbers.
Nope. Can't dispute them. CAN, however, dispute the cause. That is, it is a continuation of an economic turnaround that was going to happen regardless of who was elected and in the oval office.
 
I've posted in the past that the President is partially responsible for the economy. Obama inherited a mess but the economy was waiting to explode and he held it back.
Trump, to his credit did what was needed to get it going. People also compare Obama's job creation data to that of Trump's as a means of showing Obama had the Country on the right track.
A person with a shred of common sense realizes job creation data is miscued after a recession, when job numbers are dismal. Trump's job creation numbers and economic growth have been outstanding for 2+ years.
The work force is the largest in US history.
FYI the economy was terrible under Carter when taxes were high and interest rates were at historic high levels.
Reagan came in and did what Trump did and the economy boomed. Lather rinse repeat.
Economic "booms" shouldn't be the aim. Sustained economic growth should be. "Booms" are followed by "busts". While they happen to some degree, the larger the Boom, the larger the corresponding Bust. Some would rather have a more stable economy. I don't care either way - it is what it is.
 
Economic "booms" shouldn't be the aim. Sustained economic growth should be. "Booms" are followed by "busts". While they happen to some degree, the larger the Boom, the larger the corresponding Bust. Some would rather have a more stable economy. I don't care either way - it is what it is.

I was going to continue with that exact thought. Sustained economic growth is the key. I look for the feds to raise interest rates soon to temper inflation. My point being, Obama had every opportunity to get things going and completely failed by implementing policy that didn't work. Cash for clunkers and heavy investment in green energy to name a few.
 
I was going to continue with that exact thought. Sustained economic growth is the key. I look for the feds to raise interest rates soon to temper inflation. My point being, Obama had every opportunity to get things going and completely failed by implementing policy that didn't work. Cash for clunkers and heavy investment in green energy to name a few.
The economy (GDP) was growing steadily and consistently between 1.6% and 2.9% from 2010 to 2016. Trump's first two years in office were 2.2% and 2.9%. So. Come again?
 
The economy (GDP) was growing steadily and consistently between 1.6% and 2.9% from 2010 to 2016. Trump's first two years in office were 2.2% and 2.9%. So. Come again?

Obama's average GDP was 1.5% over 8 years. The last 2 quarters his GDP numbers were 1% and .4%. Trumps first 2 quarters were 1.5% and 2.3%.
Trumps average GDP in his first 2 years is 2.7%.
The economy was not growing under Obama.
You come again.
 
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The economy (GDP) was growing steadily and consistently between 1.6% and 2.9% from 2010 to 2016. Trump's first two years in office were 2.2% and 2.9%. So. Come again?

Obama's average GDP was 1.5% over 8 years. The last 2 quarters his GDP numbers were 1% and .4%. Trumps first 2 quarters were 1.5% and 2.3%.
Trumps average GDP in his first 2 years is 2.7%.
The economy was not growing under Obama.
You come again.

I’m not trying to discount your numbers but let’s keep in mind what kind of economy Obama inherited vs what Trump inherited. I don’t know how folks can so casually dismiss how dismal things were (actually yes I can)
 
Obama inherited a mess but his GDP numbers for his 8 years in office are anything but steady. From quarter to quarter they fluctuate like Indiana's weather.
 
Obama's average GDP was 1.5% over 8 years. The last 2 quarters his GDP numbers were 1% and .4%. Trumps first 2 quarters were 1.5% and 2.3%.
Trumps average GDP in his first 2 years is 2.7%.
The economy was not growing under Obama.
You come again.
I don’t think you understand how those numbers work.

1.5% includes the recession. You’re not even trying to be honest.
 
So do Trump’s. Know why? Because it has nothing to do with the President.

I don't think you understand how 10 trillion dollars in stimulus works to increasing the GDP. Take out the 10 trillion dollars and tell me what Obama's GDP would be?
 
Obamacare anyone? Huge new entitlement program, now somewhat defanged.
Obamacare was effectively a giant government stimulus to the health care industry, that's true. I have no idea how that's reflected in GDP, but it'd be interesting to discern "service based" GDP vs. "product based". I'm sure those numbers are out there, and our economy is becoming ever more service-based.
 
I don't think you understand how 10 trillion dollars in stimulus works to increasing the GDP. Take out the 10 trillion dollars and tell me what Obama's GDP would be?
Weren't Trump's tax cuts similar in terms of stimulus? You understand that the Fed and the President are distinct, right? Fed actions aren't tied to the executive branch... or do you think Obama was the one ordering QE?
 
Yep, cheap money always looks great in the short term.

Love Trump all you want. A history of loose money should be fresh in the mind of anyone over the age of thirty. Low taxes, low interest rates, no/lax regulation... you should be able to remember what happens. Wear your MAGA hat proudly, but protect your family according to what you have witnessed a few times in your life.

I do not disagree with the main point of your post.

Where I disagree or have a different thought is why is just Trump being mentioned or his issue?

Derivatives and CDS type markets were 20% larger in 2014 than they were in 2007. I could not find a link but remember Greenspan talking about this issue and he had it at 30% in same time frame. That included a period of time when both House and Senate along with President were all Democrats. Do not know where the number is now. Not sure if it is even relevant as it is guaranteed the number did not go down. It is the way not just US economy, but world economy works.

https://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/05/13/derivatives-markets-growing-again-with-few-new-protections/

I remember prior to things getting rough in 2007 and 2008, before all heck broke loose, some smaller hedge funds went under, it grew in number, but nobody paid much attention. Fannie and Freddie had their issues, and then in 2008 Lehman Brothers went belly up. Then things got bad.

Here we are today. Granted this is China, but the companies there have defaulted on bonds, others are late paying, and China reimplemented CDS type tools late last fall in order to 'help' these companies.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...nds-are-defaulting-at-a-record-pace-quicktake

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-china-gives-bond-hedging-sellers-the-jitters

Looks to me like we(as in world) are not just going down the path, but are well on its way down the path again. I understand this is China but I also know the world economy is intertwined. The US downturn hurt around the world. This just did not all happen in the course of 2.5 years that Trump has been President.

At this point not sure if there is a fix unless we scrap many of the tools financial institutions use. I do not see any politician doing that because that would lead to some pretty tough times for many.
 
Weren't Trump's tax cuts similar in terms of stimulus? You understand that the Fed and the President are distinct, right? Fed actions aren't tied to the executive branch... or do you think Obama was the one ordering QE?

I exaggerated, the stimulus was more like 750 billion but the additional debt accumulated was 10 trillion.
So with your suggestion that stimulus is the same as tax cuts wouldn't accumulated debt be the same as stimulus?
And yes Obama may not have ordered it but he sure helped the green industries take advantage of his stimulus money.
https://www.capitalism.com/does-government-stimulus-help-the-economy/
 
Obamacare was effectively a giant government stimulus to the health care industry, that's true. I have no idea how that's reflected in GDP, but it'd be interesting to discern "service based" GDP vs. "product based". I'm sure those numbers are out there, and our economy is becoming ever more service-based.
I was referring to more debt from Obamacare, not GDP growth.
 
I was referring to more debt from Obamacare, not GDP growth.
It's really hard to throw stones about increasing the federal debt, regardless of which side of the aisle you're on. Neither party balances a budget; their priorities are just different. You think we should eliminate the entitlement programs, and I agree with some of that. Others think we should reduce defense spending, and I agree with some of that.

Bottom line is that there is WAY too much waste in all of our major expenditures, and no one (except the late John McCain) seems particularly interested in tackling any of it. It's not the debt - it's the waste that will be the financial downfall of this country some time in the future.
 
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It's really hard to throw stones about increasing the federal debt, regardless of which side of the aisle you're on. Neither party balances a budget; their priorities are just different. You think we should eliminate the entitlement programs, and I agree with some of that. Others think we should reduce defense spending, and I agree with some of that.

Bottom line is that there is WAY too much waste in all of our major expenditures, and no one (except the late John McCain) seems particularly interested in tackling any of it. It's not the debt - it's the waste that will be the financial downfall of this country some time in the future.
Agree completely. I just happen to value military expenditures over social programs in many cases, at least moreso than you do.

Either way, this nation is spending itself into oblivion and neither party seems to want to deal with the structural issues and political fallout from making the tough decisions that need to be made to fix the problem.

Adding more social programs like Healthcare For All will not make the problem better. Obamacare certainly hasn’t made the debt situation better.
 
I just happen to value military expenditures over social programs in many cases, at least moreso than you do
I don't think that's true. I think I'm just aware of the waste within DoD and think there's more there that's more easily addressed than there is in the social programs.
 
I don't think that's true. I think I'm just aware of the waste within DoD and think there's more there that's more easily addressed than there is in the social programs.
Along these same lines, I work with infrastructure improvement projects and the lock of common sense and the waste is ridiculous.
I can only imagine what it's like in the Military.
 
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