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Is there such a thing as "good tournament coach"?

Abugabby

Abugabby

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Jun 1, 2001
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I've never really thought much about it, but if there is such a thing as a good tournament coach, Matt Painter is not one.

This is a not a fire Painter thread. I like our coach and what he represents and I want him at Purdue. But I think there can be little argument that he is not a good tournament coach.

What makes one a good tournament coach? Ability to gameplan, make adjustments, motivate?
 
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screening... fundamentals....

take a look at our game last night...

Excellent screening in the first 15 mins of the game... then we sped up and got sloppy with screening and it compounds a lot or other problems.
 
One thing might be teaching his freshmen point guard the importance of shot selection and tempo so he doesn't repeatedly kill your team in big games against athletic teams: Villanova, Louisville, Minnesota, at Nebraska, and now Kansas.
 
Abugabby said:
I've never really thought much about it, but if there is such a thing as a good tournament coach, Matt Painter is not one.

This is a not a fire Painter thread. I like our coach and what he represents and I want him at Purdue. But I think there can be little argument that he is not a good tournament coach.

What makes one a good tournament coach? Ability to gameplan, make adjustments, motivate?
Click to expand...
I would say Frank Martin is a good tournament Coach. Now 9-4 in the NCAA tournament, 2 Elite Eights in 10 years (5 NCAA appearances) and has never lost in an opening round game. Done it at Kansas State and South Carolina, not exactly places with tradition. Had a star one season with Mike Beasley, cannot recall many of his other players. This guy is a tournament Coach.
 
Roy Williams...took his stars out at the 12 minute mark with a lead around 20 points in the second half, and as soon as Butler showed some life he put them back in to kill their momentum, instead of waiting for the next TV timeout.
 
I'm kinda getting tired of hearing things like this... we had a shot to beat them.

Kansas is not 1992 dram team

Fact is, we crumbled. Very similar to how we crumbled against ND in the crossroads 2 yrs ago.

We started missing shots, Vince had two fouls back 2 back (one was dumb), and started to start trying a little too hard to compensate. Guys started forcing things, trying to make something happen.

This literally falls into kansas' hand.

We were outplayed and outcoached... not outclassed.

We came to play, got really slapped hard by than run to end the first half, then never really responded.


It was a bad matchup for us. I get it. And I know what ppl are saying by we need to get more athletic.

But guys, we'll be fine. We don't necessarily need athletes. It's toughness and discipline we lacked last night. Not the athletes
 
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Jim Valvano was one example of a "good tournament coach", IMO. His teams often went further than their seeding indicated they should.
 
purduefan101 said:
I'm kinda getting tired of hearing things like this... we had a shot to beat them.

Kansas is not 1992 dram team

Fact is, we crumbled. Very similar to how we crumbled against ND in the crossroads 2 yrs ago.

We started missing shots, Vince had two fouls back 2 back (one was dumb), and started to start trying a little too hard to compensate. Guys started forcing things, trying to make something happen.

This literally falls into kansas' hand.

We were outplayed and outcoached... not outclassed.

We came to play, got really slapped hard by than run to end the first half, then never really responded.


It was a bad matchup for us. I get it. And I know what ppl are saying by we need to get more athletic.

But guys, we'll be fine. We don't necessarily need athletes. It's toughness and discipline we lacked last night. Not the athletes
Click to expand...

I would say it's the athletes, too. Arguably Purdue's best one was dismissed from the team halfway through the season. CE is the next best athlete from the 2016-2017 team. He wasn't able to capitalize from it vs. Kansas.
 
Abugabby said:
I've never really thought much about it, but if there is such a thing as a good tournament coach, Matt Painter is not one.

This is a not a fire Painter thread. I like our coach and what he represents and I want him at Purdue. But I think there can be little argument that he is not a good tournament coach.

What makes one a good tournament coach? Ability to gameplan, make adjustments, motivate?
Click to expand...
****************
The key to a good tournament coach is to have enough talent to win enough games to get a decent seed in the tourney while holding back the team and placing them in difficulties that you still win, but are great teaching moments that provide internal struggle and constant competition with enough looking over their shoulder trying to play the right way...until you unleash the reins and play loose (with already internally accepted behaviors) with enough praise that confidence is at a high and the team exceeds the perception by playing like they are capable... :)
 
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i like painter.

he was double digit points behind late in the game and let the KU guards dribble the ball on numerous possessions for several seconds with no PU defender within 5-6 steps from him. a good tournament coach sure wouldn't let them run the clock uncontested while down double digits late. a good tournament coach might have tried a press or something to change the game a little.

whether he has the personnel or not a press would have been at least not giving up. he surrendered
 
spradecki said:
i like painter.

he was double digit points behind late in the game and let the KU guards dribble the ball on numerous possessions for several seconds with no PU defender within 5-6 steps from him. a good tournament coach sure wouldn't let them run the clock uncontested while down double digits late. a good tournament coach might have tried a press or something to change the game a little.

whether he has the personnel or not a press would have been at least not giving up. he surrendered
Click to expand...
Altman, Mack, ex UConn coach.
 
Abugabby said:
I've never really thought much about it, but if there is such a thing as a good tournament coach, Matt Painter is not one.

This is a not a fire Painter thread. I like our coach and what he represents and I want him at Purdue. But I think there can be little argument that he is not a good tournament coach.

What makes one a good tournament coach? Ability to gameplan, make adjustments, motivate?
Click to expand...
Recruiting
 
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Purdue doesn't have a good tournament coach in Painter, but that Purdue's MO. Keady won conference titles and a lot of games, come March, his balls got busted more than a rutting buck.

Painter is a poor man's Keady if you want to know the truth...
 
td75 said:
Purdue doesn't have a good tournament coach in Painter, but that Purdue's MO. Keady won conference titles and a lot of games, come March, his balls got busted more than a rutting buck.

Painter is a poor man's Keady if you want to know the truth...
Click to expand...
Then why can't we get rid of him and try something different.
 
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Abugabby said:
I've never really thought much about it, but if there is such a thing as a good tournament coach, Matt Painter is not one.

This is a not a fire Painter thread. I like our coach and what he represents and I want him at Purdue. But I think there can be little argument that he is not a good tournament coach.

What makes one a good tournament coach? Ability to gameplan, make adjustments, motivate?
Click to expand...
Maybe being able to get past the sweet 16. A good tournament coach in my eyes is a coach that has been to the elite eight or better at least a few times.
 
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ahhculdee said:
Then why can't we get rid of him and try something different.
Click to expand...

If they ever have another season or two under Painter like they did in '12-'13 and '13-'14, I believe the AD (presuming it's still Bobinski when/if this happens) will make a change.
 
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FirstDownB said:
Ironically, Bill Self would not be considered one.
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...and so we are led to believe that basketball changes...that teams learn things others don't know and coaches do things others don't know and now you are successful in hand selected pairings. Perhaps those underachieving teams with much more talent play more to what they could have done the whole year. The tourney is a crapshoot. Jackson gets two fouls in a couple of minutes and Kansas misses some of the same shots and Purdue probably continues to play a much more effective game and doesn't go hog wild in the second half...or TV Ted is a welcomed sight...and who knows what happens :)

Yep...a good coach becomes a bad coach because of amnesia and a bad coach becomes a good coach due to a new brain pill...but those coaches change once a tourney changes...players playing with more urgency and the ability to put out more than they have make no difference... :) It has got to be teh coaches...
 
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BoilerBiker said:
42-18 in the tourney, and has taken kansas, illinois, and even tulsa to an elite 8
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you and ahhculdee indicate this is on the coach. Why do you think it is on the coach instead of players...what does a coach do different or know different that he does a week or two before. You two could be correct, but I'm trying to understand what happens to a coach other than talent differential generally
 
FirstDownB said:
At Kansas. Seven #1 seeds. 2 final fours and 1 national championship.
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oh I agree he could be doing even better at KU than he has

just pointing out his overall is still pretty successful,
especially even taking a non power conf team to 30+ wins and elite 8

I suppose for comparison, r.williams was there for 15 years and had 4 final 4s and 0 titles.

also maybe like other threads mention, seeding is off / inaccurate and plays a small role too ? although not as convinced on that yet
 
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BoilerBiker said:
oh I agree he could be doing even better at KU than he has

just pointing out his overall is still pretty successful,
especially even taking a non power conf team to 30+ wins and elite 8

I suppose for comparison, r.williams was there for 15 years and had 4 final 4s and 0 titles.

also maybe like other threads mention, seeding is off / inaccurate and plays a small role too ? although not as convinced on that yet
Click to expand...
Overall Self has done a very good job. But the OP was specifically about deviations between regular season and tournament performance.

If the expectation is the following:
1 seed: final four
2 seed: elite 8
3, 4 seed: sweet sixteen
5-8 seed: win one
9-16: happy to be there

Self is on the side of rarely exceeding expectations in the tourney. Ole Roy is there too.
 
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Secrefreakintariat said:
Here's my extremely detailed and nuanced take: Painter is an overall excellent coach. In the tournament shit happens. (Am I allowed to say that?)
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more than tha,t an 8 cyl doesn't have to be hitting on all cyl to beat a 4 cyl that has a misfire from time to time...
 
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Heller said:
When you miss shots and turn the ball over, and the other team takes care f the basketball, boxes out, and shoots over or near 50% from three, you will lose by 30 no matter who is coaching.
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I think MBob needs to pay attention more to the Women's team as of now. When we had Curry, she recruited very well and actually had a watchable product.
 
PaBoiler78 said:
I think MBob needs to pay attention more to the Women's team as of now. When we had Curry, she recruited very well and actually had a watchable product.
Click to expand...

While Curry had a wonderful start with the players of the previous coach. Then there were issues with the players and eligibility/academics with the players she recruited. We were in jeopardy of going on probation if she, the staff and player(s) involved had not left the team. I believe the AD had a chance to prevent it but failed. He should have been able to retain Nel Fourtner and Carolyn Peck. They left at the first sign of respect and success from national sources. That tells me the local environment was not acceptable to sustain any of that success. And that transcends over to the men's side as well. But I digress.

I agree that the current AD has more important things on his plate. Men's football and women's basketball are two of those important things.
 
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BoilerBiker said:
this article is 2 years old, so izzo's overall number dipped a bit with last year's big upset.
based on their data through 2015, he was nearly 7 standard deviations above the average.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab...ach-in-modern-ncaa-tournament-history-by-far/
Click to expand...

Edit: forgot link

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tom-izzo-michigan-state-coaching-final-four/

There is a bit updated version of this here. I link it because it includes coaches at the END of the spectrum (read: underperformers). Keady makes the back end of the list as does Bob Knight (over their whole careers). I am guessing this is mostly reflecting the ends of their careers but a more careful anaysis of Keady and Knight might also be interesting.

I went ahead and looked at Painters performance (only with Purdue, so we have excluded one shot when he was at SIU) and the results show that Painter is an "average" coach, according to the 538 metric, up to this point in his career at Purdue.

20p3nsj.png


We get expected wins from the table given in the links from 538. Other than that we can look and see that Painter average win / expected win differential is -0.01 (average score would be 0)
 
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cgnops said:
Edit: forgot link

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tom-izzo-michigan-state-coaching-final-four/

There is a bit updated version of this here. I link it because it includes coaches at the END of the spectrum (read: underperformers). Keady makes the back end of the list as does Bob Knight (over their whole careers). I am guessing this is mostly reflecting the ends of their careers but a more careful anaysis of Keady and Knight might also be interesting.

I went ahead and looked at Painters performance (only with Purdue, so we have excluded one shot when he was at SIU) and the results show that Painter is an "average" coach, according to the 538 metric, up to this point in his career at Purdue.

20p3nsj.png


We get expected wins from the table given in the links from 538. Other than that we can look and see that Painter average win / expected win differential is -0.01 (average score would be 0)
Click to expand...
So, is it safe to say there must be a lot of error in the assumptions or someone is quietly sitting on a lot of money? :)
 
Heller said:
When you miss shots and turn the ball over, and the other team takes care f the basketball, boxes out, and shoots over or near 50% from three, you will lose by 30 no matter who is coaching.
Click to expand...

Guys like Swanigan, VE, and Mathias were boxing out Josh Jackson but Jackson was jumping so high he was essentially jumping over them to get about half of his 12 rebounds in the game.
 
tjreese said:
So, is it safe to say there must be a lot of error in the assumptions or someone is quietly sitting on a lot of money? :)
Click to expand...

My understanding is that the "expected wins for a seed" given by 538 is a statistically derived quantity starting from the expansion to a 64 team field for the tournament.

That said, no idea how useful those metrics would as a predictor w.r.t. results of this years tourney, but it would be interesting if someone had the time to put it together.
 
cgnops said:
My understanding is that the "expected wins for a seed" given by 538 is a statistically derived quantity starting from the expansion to a 64 team field for the tournament.

That said, no idea how useful those metrics would as a predictor w.r.t. results of this years tourney, but it would be interesting if someone had the time to put it together.
Click to expand...
yes understanding the assumptions and model for study would be interesting and maybe if I ever retire I can investigate it as it does sound interesting. My point about someone sitting on money would be if it were very accurate...a lot of money could be made. Still, the probabilities would be interesting and of course when you take any probability of another probability it gets murky. Thanks...
 
tjreese said:
yes understanding the assumptions and model for study would be interesting and maybe if I ever retire I can investigate it as it does sound interesting. My point about someone sitting on money would be if it were very accurate...a lot of money could be made. Still, the probabilities would be interesting and of course when you take any probability of another probability it gets murky. Thanks...
Click to expand...

How so?
 
cgnops said:
Edit: forgot link

https://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/tom-izzo-michigan-state-coaching-final-four/

There is a bit updated version of this here. I link it because it includes coaches at the END of the spectrum (read: underperformers). Keady makes the back end of the list as does Bob Knight (over their whole careers). I am guessing this is mostly reflecting the ends of their careers but a more careful anaysis of Keady and Knight might also be interesting.

I went ahead and looked at Painters performance (only with Purdue, so we have excluded one shot when he was at SIU) and the results show that Painter is an "average" coach, according to the 538 metric, up to this point in his career at Purdue.

20p3nsj.png


We get expected wins from the table given in the links from 538. Other than that we can look and see that Painter average win / expected win differential is -0.01 (average score would be 0)
Click to expand...
So yes Painter has performed somewhat to his seedings. The problem is he never gets good seedings. This years team was good enough to be a 3. Hummel's junior year could of been a 2. Etwaun's senior year could of been a 2. Change those numbers and those statistics aren't impressive at all. Its kind of funny people will compare his performances to his team's seedings yet every year you guys complain how Purdue is under seeded.
 
BoilerFan#35 said:
So yes Painter has performed somewhat to his seedings. The problem is he never gets good seedings. This years team was good enough to be a 3. Hummel's junior year could of been a 2. Etwaun's senior year could of been a 2. Change those numbers and those statistics aren't impressive at all. Its kind of funny people will compare his performances to his team's seedings yet every year you guys complain how Purdue is under seeded.
Click to expand...

First you say CMP has performed to the seedings, then you pick 4 of his 9 tourneys and blame it on being under seeded? Pretty strange interpretation. For example, it is very hard for me to see why our 2011 3-seed should have been a 2-seed, we got handled by VCU in the round of 32 (they had a great tourney that year but a 3 seed should translate to a sweet 16 appearance). The evaluation of "coaching performance" based on seed may be unfair or even utter nonsense, but it is a stastically derived estimate of performance compared to all other NCAA teams. It's impossible to meaningfully talk about performance without numbers to back it up.
 
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