Is Michigan a top 3 team in Big Ten ?
- Thread starter BubbaJ75
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Michigan has not been very good on the road. I guess we can say they're the Syracuse of the Big 10.
I agree with nags, wait, call a doctor for me. They are playing well at home of late and they do present a matchup problem for many teams with the euro style bigs. But if we play to our capability the whole game instead just in parts of the second half none of this discussion is happening.
They definitely under achieve big time on the road! They did play a pretty good half of a game at UCLA in December! Although I wouldn't mind getting another shot at them, I wouldn't want to face them in the NCAAs. I think the 3 teams with the best chance for success in the tournament are Purdue, Minnesota and Michigan. Based on recent play, I expect both Wisconsin and Maryland to have early exits. I hope I am wrong, because I always want the Big Ten to do good in the tournament, but that's how I see it.
I basically agree with the KenPom rankings of the conference members...
#1 Purdue
#2 Wisconsin
#3 Michigan
#4 Minnesota
#5 Northwestern
#6 Maryland
Maryland is just not that good. Winning a bunch of really close games is mostly luck and not skill that will carry forward. They also have 5 losses against teams ranked below #70 in KenPom which is not that good (conversely Michigan's worst opponent to lose to was in OT on road @ #71 Iowa).
#1 Purdue
#2 Wisconsin
#3 Michigan
#4 Minnesota
#5 Northwestern
#6 Maryland
Maryland is just not that good. Winning a bunch of really close games is mostly luck and not skill that will carry forward. They also have 5 losses against teams ranked below #70 in KenPom which is not that good (conversely Michigan's worst opponent to lose to was in OT on road @ #71 Iowa).
I'd go with us, Minnesota, and Michigan. Still think we're the best team but we did lose to those two. Wisconsin and Maryland have fallen off lately.
That's bold, but I can't exactly argue. Minnesota is on fire right now, and they're the only team to beat the league leader on the road.
If you look at the season as a whole, I agree, but right now I'd put Minnesota and Michigan ahead of Wisconsin and MSU in the top 5.
I think Michigan wins against most teams if they get a fast start. If that had been a one point game mid way through the first half, I think we would have been able to grind them down a little more, draw some fouls, and win. I think their bench (or lack thereof) is their weakness. When they jump out to a 15 point lead they have enough fire power to coast against almost anyone.
Oh, and it helps to make a closely guarded, falling down, circus 3 pointer as the shot clock expires with 2 minutes to go in a two possession game.
Oh, and it helps to make a closely guarded, falling down, circus 3 pointer as the shot clock expires with 2 minutes to go in a two possession game.
Maryland not playing well lately is true but winning as many close games as they have (not just this season but the previous two seasons as well: i.e. every season they've played in the B1G) is not luck. 'Melo Trimble being on all of those teams is not a coincidence. He knows how to draw fouls and more times than not, he closes out close games by making his FT's.
We don't have to put every team that beats us up on a pedestal. Michigan played a good game at home in a near must win situation for them. They have struggled in plenty of other games and are a fairly flawed team defensively and in the post. When a team is hitting 3's at a super high rate like they did they look unbeatable but reality is that's not how they play every game. We are the best team in the Big 10 and the next 4 or 5 are all about equal and it just varies from night to night who is on and who is off and how they matchup against their opponents.
Between Trolls and flip floppers I don't know why I even come to this place . Purdue has won 9-11 and Michigan is insane at home this year.
They have the longest win streak in the B1G, beat us at home and are playing better than anyone right now.
I wouldn't call a team that shoots >38% on 3s for the season that goes 11-26 (42%) in a single game as "hitting 3s at a super high rate". It's basically an average shooting performance, especially if you consider that many of the looks were open. If they had made 1 fewer 3 pointer, they would have been perfectly at their season average for 3 pt %.
And in fact, that shooting performance is not just close to season average, it's also fairly typical. Michigan does have 10 losses this season, but in only 2 of those games did they make <34% of their 3 pt attempts and they have 2 losses where they hit at least 50%.
Purdue's problem wasn't that Michigan made 42% of their 3 point shots, it was that they allowed 26 attempts of which many were wide open looks. Also didn't help that Michigan was 19-29 inside the arc with plenty of dunks and layups as they scrambled to try to cover the perimeter.
Purdue has a strong defensive team this year. Definitely better than Michigan on that end by a good amount. I just think Michigan's offense is a particularly bad matchup for their defense and it exploits Swanigan and Haas and their relative inability to credibly defend 20 feet from the basket.
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kenpom sagarin bpi
Minnesota. 30 30 39
Purdue. 12 11 11
You guys keep on talking. Purdue is 23-6 tomorrow night they are going to secure a share of the big ten championship (minimum) and a #1 seed in BTT. Moan moan moan
Minnesota. 30 30 39
Purdue. 12 11 11
You guys keep on talking. Purdue is 23-6 tomorrow night they are going to secure a share of the big ten championship (minimum) and a #1 seed in BTT. Moan moan moan
I refer you to KenPom's discussion of the Terrapins success in "close games" and what that means. If it's a team trait that carries weight going forward, then teams like Houston-Baptist which is even better in "close games" must have much more clutch ability than Maryland.
Looking at the final score of games in hindsight to determine which teams are best in "close games" is the wrong approach IMHO. Some games end up a 3 point game because a team had a 15 point lead and let the other team score some points in the last minute to make it that close. Does that team that almost blew the 15 point lead get credit for how good they were in a "close game"? Or is it not very impressive that they almost blew it?
It would be far more instructive to look at how team's performed in say, games tied with a minute or two to play and see what their W/L record would be. Far more meaningful than just picking an arbitrary cutoff of final score no matter how it got there. Maryland wouldn't look quite so spiffy in that scenario.
And also, let's look at exactly who some of these teams are that Maryland has beaten by 6 or fewer points (listed with their KenPom rank): #302 American, #60 Georgetown, #121 Towson, #94 Richmond, #37 Kansas State, #19 Oklahoma State, #49 Indiana, #62 Illinois, #71 Iowa, and #65 Ohio State. Basically 2 wins over good opponents (OK State and K State) and some nailbiters with some really bad teams. Heck, it's not like they've even been spectacular in conference play in those scenarios. They are 4-3 in Big Ten play in games decided by 6 or fewer points (1-2 in games decided by 5 points or less).
Not at all. I'm very happy we have a chance for a BTC tomorrow. The question was, who are the best teams right now (forget the record)? IMO that they are playing the best ball right now. I hope I'm wrong & we win the BTT, but if I had to place money on it, they would have to be right there with us as the favorite.
Yeah well I remember those exact same words from you when Swanigan decommited from msu. " I hope I'm wrong " but it's all good. I see it completely differently as do most experts that's all
At home. They will be a first round exit in the NCAA tourney. As will NW and Minnesota.
I don't remember that...Like most, I had no idea and was suprised he decomitted from MSU. But if you say it happened... I'll take your word.
Technically hitting 11 3's per game at over 40% is a very high rate and would rank them very high compared to the rest of the country. Pur/UM have made nearly the same number of 3's this season with Purdue shooting a few % points better and Purdue is considered to be a very good 3 point shooting team and top 5 in %. And they connected on a very high rate in the first half which is what basically put Purdue away just like in the IU and MSU home games in where UM shot well from outside and won big and looked very good doing so. Purdue's problem against teams like Michigan absolutely relates to giving open 3's much more so than the easy looks inside which I believe is a result of poor on ball defense/switching. Didn't see the first 10 minutes of the game so I can't speak for that part but the rest I did and going into it I knew that if Purdue didn't establish post play inside and get Wagner in foul trouble he would be an issue and that's exactly what happened. I guess I didn't state it in this thread but UM is a bad match up for Purdue because of Wilson/Wagner's abilities to play away from the basket.
I never stated UM was a bad team and I would certainly include them in the next 4 to 5 teams after Purdue but I still fully believe Purdue is the best team in the BT with their ability to beat teams in multiple ways and just overall ability. Michigan's best BT road win is @IU and in normal years that would be a very good win but this year it is not.
My point is that Michigan is a team that always shoots a lot of 3s and makes them at a high percentage. They rank 13th nationally in % of points from made 3s. It wasn't some lucky outburst to go 11/26. It was basically normal for them considering the open looks they got.
You should also note that in my earlier post in this thread I said I agreed with the KenPom rankings that call Purdue the best team in the conference (followed by Wisconsin and Michigan).
For the record... I said "I hope your right...", not "I hope I'm wrong..."
I'm fully aware that Michigan always shoots lots of 3's and has done so going back plenty of years. I certainly didn't claim they were lucky to shoot that. Although to say they always make them at a high percentage is off. Last 2 years they shot 38% and 35% for the season which is far from a high percentage. UM played above all their averages in fg%, 3 pt% and ft%. Had Purdue played it's average or basically normal game they win even with UM playing about average. So in short UM played better than they typically do and Purdue played worse than they typically do.
For the record... I said "I hope your right...", not "I hope I'm wrong..."
Lol ok you got me there , I knew I remembered us having some sort of discussion. Look this team is flawed but damn good. I think a lot of us do indeed fall off the cliff a little after a loss
I think they are third right now barely ahead of Minny. Maryland has dropped off badly and Northwestern is in danger of losing their tourney spot. MSU isn't good but Izzo will probably work his magic.
Not sure how anyone can have UM in the top 3. They have 1 road win all year & lost to Minny. Just because we laid an egg against them doesn't make them top 3.
Actually two...they won at IU AND Rutgers. ha
Their last two games are @ NW and @ Nebraska.
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