if the ACC collapses, then ND to the B1G makes the most sense. Culturally, the SEC doesn't make sense. In the next TV contract, I wouldn't be surprised the B1G, the SEC and Big 12 are realigned to get to 24 or so teams. FSU seems to want in the big ten, UNC has been a long target for the big ten. Add Stanford, a Texas team, Virginia or VT and Georgia Tech. That would give the big ten a pretty solid footprint across the country.
Interesting take on potential BT members #19 & #20 (TAMU and ND)
- Thread starter Tommaker
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aren't colorado's recent TV number similar to IU's eastern division numbers? Colorado is benefiting from coach Prime. When he leaves, won't the TV numbers drop? It's a good program, but it's going to the big 12. The B1G will get a better team than colorado in the next round of conference elimination.
What about one of the AZ schools - seems like Phoenix is a bigger market?
Who said ND will go to either B1G or SEC? They may stay independent or go to B12 with what is expected of the rest of the best of the ACC. Only way I see B1G taking ND is defensively to avoid them going to SEC, but I agree culturally that doesn’t make sense.
who said? nobody. Look at the NBC contracts. They include ND (for a long time) and recently included the big ten - do you think this was a coincidence? TV contracts are leading this conference realignment. ESPN/ABC = SEC. FOX/NBC = Big Ten and Big12. Things can change, but as of right now, Disney is spinning it's wheels.
Only a homer would think the big ten negotiated with nbc to align with Notre dame.
Understand tv contracts are leading the realignment. But B1G is more aligned with Fox than NBC especially with BTN deal and also includes CBS. I don’t think ESPN/ABC will feel like they need ND. And I don’t think ND will generate nearly the NEW viewers that the networks need to pay more towards B1G that FSU would bring. I would even suggest UNC would have a better chance of getting in B1G than ND. Oregon and Washington opened up a whole new region of the country and get big ratings and even they sucked ip their pride and took partial payments from B1G. I don’t see ND doing that. In fact I could see them staying independent since the new 12 team playoff format doesn’t cut them out and I think they can still get good money on their own. I think it would also be different if the B1G was getting ready to negotiate a new contract but we are locked in for a while.
I don't think any TV contract would allow ND to be independent. They have arbitrarily joined the ACC already. Their contract with NBC is below the B1G average. NBC aint dumb. Fox aint dumb.
They just extended it through 2029 within the last year with nbc. The only way nd is getting out of the acc if there is an implosion which only seems feasible if the courts rule for FSU which seems very unlikely or the contract ends after the 2026/2027 season which seems possible. I assume there is language for either side to figure out reworking it if the acc implodes. If it does and the SEC does not take ND I don’t see the B1G taking them either. That’s all I’m saying. The B12 payout will be much smaller and I would expect ND’s ego would get in they way and they would try to keep their nbc contract. That will depend on other teams willing to schedule them which I don’t see why they wouldn’t.
2029 is the end date for the big ten cbs/fox/nbc contract. ND will join the big ten then.
I have no doubt nbc and maybe even nd aligned those dates as the B1G is a huge part of nbcs programming. Completely speculative after that but there is no indication nd will be a part of big ten after that and the only thing up in air is ESPN and whether they renew the acc agreement. You are wrong about B12 above, they are aligned with ESPN and Fox and not NBC. It’s becoming more apparent Fox is shifting to B1G especially as it picks up more Friday night games. So espn/abc who is already in bed with SEC and only way I see them killing their deal with acc is if there is some sort of negotiated arrangement where top acc teams go to B12 or SEC. I think espn knows they will lose FSU regardless. Again all speciation but I think ESPN controls everything otherwise we are waiting until 2036 or the very remote chance the courts rule for fsu.
Also cbs is losing our right now… I figure they will pony up more to get FSU here and could care less about ND. Don’t forget nbc up until recently had little interest in college football except ND and I don’t see them throwing much more money into the pot to expand.
lots of bla bla there. Does ND fit the big ten or SEC? They fit the big ten. They will join the big ten over the SEC. Those are the final 2.
True but they also have to balance the books. If I am not mistaken we already have schools in the B1G that are not AAU certified!
If TEXAS A&M had ideas of leaving the SEC because of their expansion they did not exercise the blackball right regarding the addition of Texas and Oklahoma, so while anything is possible I will believe it when I see it when A&M leaves the SEC.
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This isn't "all-time". What does it take to get that into your head? This is 2024 with Colorado in a new conference, the Pac-12 is dead and the Big Ten expanded and realigned. And now for the TV ratings on the Colorado-Nebraska game last Saturday.
It's even better than I predicted. It is officially the most-watched Big Ten Saturday Night game since the series debuted last season.
NBC announces record-breaking TV ratings for Colorado-Nebraska game
Nebraska's win over Colorado broke viewership records for NBC on Saturday night.
saturdaytradition.com
The ADs will only present to the Presidents schools that will increase the media revenue share that each school gets.
The B1G doesn’t care about 1-2 years of ratings due to a novelty act like Prime.This isn't "all-time". What does it take to get that into your head? This is 2024 with Colorado in a new conference, the Pac-12 is dead and the Big Ten expanded and realigned. And now for the TV ratings on the Colorado-Nebraska game last Saturday.
It's even better than I predicted. It is officially the most-watched Big Ten Saturday Night game since the series debuted last season.
NBC announces record-breaking TV ratings for Colorado-Nebraska game
Nebraska's win over Colorado broke viewership records for NBC on Saturday night.
The Big Ten cares about state flagships, AAU, location in large TV market (e.g., Rutgers, Maryland), classic rivalries and getting into all four time zones.
Only if that school has a long track record of big TV ratings. Which Colorado doesn’t.
The media landscape has changed since they added Rutgers and Maryland. That was forever ago.
The networks were willing to add enough money to the pot for UCLA and USC that it increased each schools media revenue share.
That simply isn’t the case for Colorado, or they would have already taken them.
Now, if Prime actually builds a sustained top 10 program there, then sure maybe they add them down the road. I highly doubt that happens.
Read your own words: “Only if that school has a long track record of big TV ratings.”
Next post: “The media landscape has changed since they added Rutgers and Maryland. That was forever ago."
You contradict yourself!
B1G’s criteria for entry has changed over the last decade. Colorado might have qualified 10 years ago. They don’t now. As everyone in the world understands, except for you.
So please tell us which Big Ten criteria for entry have changed. State flagship? AAU? Large TV market?
And there is this from former ND AD Jack Swarbrick: “When you’re going to Tallahassee and you start with a bus trip to Midway [Airport], then you connect once along the way before you get there, and then you’re on a bus trying to get to campus, it’s probably 18, 16 hours you’ve been travelling. That’s tough to be a pre-med major or finance major and do that. We’re always looking for ways to make the scheduling easier. But it’s media, CFP and our Olympic sports.”
College Football TV Ratings: Top 10 most-watched games of Week 2
Texas at Michigan averaged 9.35 million viewers last weekend, unseating USC-LSU as the most-watched game of the college football season.
As everyone else here has already figured out, they are looking for schools that can increase the per school media revenue share.
I asked you to tell us tell us which Big Ten criteria for entry have changed. You are incapable of answering that question. Your response of "they are looking for schools that can increase the per school media revenue share" is nonsense. There are multiple criteria and ther always have been. Are you trying to say that Flagship, AAU, hometown media market, etc, are all ignored?
Your comment is absurd. There are numerous criteria about which the Big Ten presidents use to decide new conference members, and everyone here is familiar with them. You are flailing to dignify a debate that you have already lost. Just stifle.
No he’s right it’s a different metric. I it’s Maryland and Rutgers they were requiring cable companies to make all sports packages pick up BTN do every single cable subscriber in NYC and Baltimore/DC metro with sports package had to pay for BTN. Cable subscriptions are down more than 30% in last 4 years and it’s expected to get much worse with streaming and sports fans it’s believed to be much worse as many sports fans choose now to stream. Now fans can be selective so you tv markers are much less important.
Only if the ACC folds by then. In addition to the Grant of Rights that the ACC has all of ND's television rights but football and hockey until 2032, ND in an effort to bolster the ACC's image signed an iron clad agreement that IF/WHEN ND joins a conference it MUST BE the ACC. There is no buyout clause on that contract, and no wiggle room. Last summer (2023) ND hired two different large lawfirms to try and find them a legal way to leave the ACC for the Big Ten. ND absolutely HATES not being the biggest bread winner in college football, and having hitched their wagon to a sinking conference they are desperate to find any way out. Big Ten is first choice because ND also wants in on teh 2-3 billion dollars the Big Ten academic consortium hands out, but the SEC would be the fall back. The Big 12 is not in play for ND or the top 4-5 ACC schools. CU has begged for Big Ten membership for decades, just like Iowa St, Missouri, and Louisville. None of them add enough to be considered for membership. Also its the state population that matters most for the cable deal, not the city/regional market in most cases. Maryland and Rutgers were exceptions because being in small states their locality market crossed into larger markets like DC and NYC. Outside of Denver, the rest of Colorado is not that populous an CU would not bring in enough to cover what they would make as a full member. That is why they are in the B12 this year and NOT the Big Ten. If the BT had shown them any reciprical interest CU would have crawled through a mile of broken glass to join, but they were not invited or accepted last year, last decade, or last century, what makes you think they would be given any consideration now?
BT shopping list from the ACC if it blows up:
ND
UNC
UVA
UMiami
GaTech if one of the first four doesn't fall into line.
Clemson and FSU are not big considerations for the Big Ten because of their lack of academic rigor and research potential.
The SEC went behind TxA&Ms back and voted to admit OU and Tx before telling A&M about it, presenting it as fait accompli. TxA&M might leave if they got the right deal which would mean the BT would have to pony up for about half A&Ms exit fee from the SEC which would be in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
Agree on this for the most part. ESPN is ready to fold their contract given the contention. FSU has applied for AAU membership and is a bigger football TV option than Miami. I'd hope the big ten takes Ga Tech - they have good following and being in one of the largest markets in the country doesn't hurt. I wouldn't be surprised by a team from TX and / or Stanford joining the field. Stanford doesn't fit the SEC or Big12.
Stanford only got into the ACC by agreeing to draw no income from them, the BT could have had Stanford same as CU this last go around, but even at ZERO shares, Stanford does not add enough to warrant a seat at the BT table. UCLA and USC wrap up the entirety of the state of California for the BT, so they add zero eyeballs, they draw less spectators then a dead horse draws flies, and their research arm is not that great. Miami is a much better fit academically and is a top 20 med school with a huge research grant package. They add more dollars to the pot, and are a better conference citizen than whiney assed FSU. FSU has football, and little else. The Big Ten looks for more than just a football team with a half assed school attached to it.
Stanford is in the top 10 of university research ranking and expenditures. Any conference concerned with academic qualities would take Stanford. Being in the San Fran area, they add that TV market and balance on the west coast. B1G needs a Florida team. Miami doesn't even sell out their stadium - they are like IU when OSU isn't in town. They are now in the AAU, but FSU has applied as well. This is about football TV coverage though - fox/ peacock/cbs are spending billions on football rights so I'd give the edge to FSU.
None of the other stuff matters if the school doesn’t increase the per school media revenue share. And Colorado doesn’t, which is why they have been passed over multiple times.
The Big Ten turned down Stanford's offer to join without taking any payout from the conference last year. There is less than zero chance Stanford gets a full offer to join. USC by the BT cable agreement brings ALL of California, including the SF Bay area. Stanford has about as good a chance of getting into the Big Ten as Ball State does.......
Granted, but you're saying for that reason alone the Big Ten would ignore that FSU is not a state flagship, not AAU, not an academic star, has no cultural ties or rivals, and all Olympic sports teams will spend 16-18 hours traveling to a logistically remote outlier.
