If they beat Illinois and win BTT can they get a 2 seed? I don’t think it happens but it is a possibility.
If Purdue runs table?
- Thread starter purduedavie
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They can, but it will also be dependent on what other teams do. They'd be locked into at least a 3 in that scenario with a 2 pretty likely IMO.
Possible, but as boilerzz says, it's dependent on other teams. What if A&M wins the SEC? Iowa State wins the BXII? All those things matter.
Plus, we've seen that on most occasions, winning championship games on Sunday lends very little weight to the proceedings. Unless it's a team that wouldn't get in otherwise. Most of the bracket is well done by then.
Plus, we've seen that on most occasions, winning championship games on Sunday lends very little weight to the proceedings. Unless it's a team that wouldn't get in otherwise. Most of the bracket is well done by then.
If we win out and first game in BTT, maybe….I think it will shake out how teams in other conferences do etc.
Selection committee doesn’t care what happens in the BTT unless it is a bid stealer situation. It is why playing hard doesn’t mean anything.
Selection committee doesn’t care what happens in the BTT unless it is a bid stealer situation. It is why playing hard doesn’t mean anything.
Feels to me like a 3 is still more likely than a 2 in that scenario unless MSU falls off a cliff. MSU seems pretty likely to get a 2 and I'm skeptical that 2 B10 teams will be 2 seeds.
But it's not impossible sure.
I'm not sure there's a big a difference between 2 and 3 as there is btw 3 and 4.
Could be an unlikely scenario where Purdue and Wisconsin are playing for the championship and the winner gets the 2 and the loser gets the 3.
The real wildcard to me between the 2 and the 3 line is St. John's. Great record, winning their conference by multiple games, and they just flat-out look good. But their metrics don't match their record, mostly because the Big East is kinda down as a whole. They have just 3 Q1 wins, compared to our 7. I happen to think winning their league so easily will carry them to a 2, but I seem to be in the minority.
The group of teams that we're talking about, the mid 2-seed through the 5 seeds, are as follows on today's update of the Matrix. Obviously not all the submissions are updated themselves. Starting with overall #7:
2 Michigan St
2 Wisconsin
3 Iowa State
3 St. John's
3 Texas Tech
3 Kentucky
4 Purdue
4 Texas A&M
4 Michigan
4 Arizona
5 Missouri
5 Clemson
5 Maryland
5 Marquette
2 Michigan St
2 Wisconsin
3 Iowa State
3 St. John's
3 Texas Tech
3 Kentucky
4 Purdue
4 Texas A&M
4 Michigan
4 Arizona
5 Missouri
5 Clemson
5 Maryland
5 Marquette
Possible scenario - as they could be on opposite sides of the bracket.
I'm struggling to recall a situation, though, where the committee determined seeding difference like this on the result of the BTT championship game - seems like even in those scenarios, they always just had the bracket set.
If I were forced to wager, I think Purdue ends up a 3-seed. Region? Not based on metrics, but Boilerepherine stupor and a hunch......East. That means it will end up West.
Yep, it's just the nature of conference tourney week for the top conferences. Everyone but the tourney winners will pick up a loss that week. Nearly all of those losses won't be categorically "bad" losses. All of the teams already near you on the S-curve will have similar 30-game resumes. It makes it very hard to create any real separation in one week if it hasn't been established in the prior 18 or so weeks.
Not to be a Debbie Downer, but I think it's going to be very tough to win at Illinois. The Illini seem to be back on the uptick. They'll be at home. They're more desperate than Purdue, and they're a much better rebounding team.
Not saying Purdue can't or won't win. But, I think it's going to be really tough.
Not saying Purdue can't or won't win. But, I think it's going to be really tough.
It will definitely be tough.
IMO neither team is "desperate" since Illinois has righted the ship by beating Iowa and Michigan. Neither team will win the Big Ten and are probably mostly locked in to a fairly narrow seeding range for post season tournaments. Of course both want to win and a Q1 added to the resume is helpful but doesn't rise to the level of desperation.
Even the Senior Night implications probably don't hit as hard in the portal era. Maybe Humrichous walks even though he technically has another season due to the Pavia ruling. KJ is certainly gone as a projected lottery pick but he's a freshman.
The last 2 doesn't necessarily go with the top 1. One of the biggest myths of bracketing. The S-curve doesn't fill the bracket perfectly. Geography and avoiding certain conference matchups play a part.
It's definitely a stretch, but remember some of us (myself included) were surprised when we were a 2 when the released the preview top 16. Lose 4, then win 4? Does that put you back there based on what others do? Doubt it but a chance.
Right now, the 1's are Auburn, Duke and Houston and 1 of Alabama, Tennessee and Florida. I don't think we can catch those 6.
I'd put MSU next and it's going to be hard to catch them. We'd really need them to lose at least 2 of the next 3 and maybe 3 straight to catch them.
But beyond those 7 teams, I'm not sure anyone is significantly in front of us.
- St Johns has a gaudy record but has played the same number of Q1 games as we've won and has played 15 Q3/Q4 games. It would certainly help if Marquette could beat them this weekend and they lose early in the BET.
- Iowa State losing last night certainly narrowed the gap between us
- I'd put Wisconsin and Texas Tech slightly ahead of us right now but not materially.
- Kentucky, Texas A&M and Michigan have comparable resumes
Now, all that said, I put Purdue's chances of beating Illinois and winning the BTT at about 10-15% so....
Humrichous another year?! Wow.
Wouldn’t Riley also be gone to the draft after this year?
Humancherrio might get another year?
I bet Illinois loses Riley and Jucknotsnot to the draft.
They will lose Ty Rodgers and Tre White. Plenty of room to get AJ Storr on that roster.
I’ve read some rumblings that he will most likely be gone. Then again, who knows.
Appreciate making the folks laugh
Win-by-the-three die-by-the-three basketball virtually guarantees no NC.
Thankfully that's not Purdue, which is 182nd nationally in 3PA/FGA.
Illinois has been currently dying by the 3 all year. 30 attempts a game puts them at 4th in the nation. But they only hit 30% of them.
I fully expect them to hit 50% vs Purdue tho 😂
Maryland win keeps alive Purdue's chances to finish as high as second IF the Boilers can win Friday night.
There's still a possibility for a 4-way tie @ 14-6 (Maryland, Purdue, Michigan, and Wisconsin) - seeds would be:
Maryland (2)
Purdue (3)
Michigan (4)
Wisconsin (5)
Need Chi-Boiler to weigh in - think the over under is 3.5 on 3-pt FG's at the shot-clock buzzer or banked.
There was an instance in the past where all of the seeds were determined on Saturday. But 2 big 10 teams were one seed apart. Such as a 2 and a 3 seed. Since both teams were from the same conference and in the title game, and their rankings were equal, the winner of the title game was given the 2 seed and the loser of the title game was given the 3 seed. It may have been a 1 and 2 seed or a 3 and 4 or 5 and 6. I just remember. The projections made were that the two teams were already seeded on Saturday and their rankings committee basically put the winner of the title game in one seed and the loser in the other.
There have also been several tournaments where a big ten team was given a lower seed than their Ken Pom rating would suggest, but a more favorable location for their first two games as sort of a compensation for being seeded lower..
I’ve also seen this happen for Duke and UNC S no matter what their seed is, they find a way to have their first two games close to North Carolina. And Kansas always seems to play in Kansas City. It’s purely coincidence!
There have also been several tournaments where a big ten team was given a lower seed than their Ken Pom rating would suggest, but a more favorable location for their first two games as sort of a compensation for being seeded lower..
I’ve also seen this happen for Duke and UNC S no matter what their seed is, they find a way to have their first two games close to North Carolina. And Kansas always seems to play in Kansas City. It’s purely coincidence!
LOL - Carey Booth is about to dropping 40pts on us going 9/10 free 3 on us 😂
Kidding aside, I will be interested to see how well the Purdue team can keep its poise and execute effectively. On the road against the top half of the conference has not been very consistent, and the only win is at Oregon.
However, they should be in a good place after the players' meeting and two solid games against different opponents to get some confidence. Illinois has been a roller coaster this season, but they definitely can cause some issues on both ends of the floor.
Also, now the unbalanced schedules have a little to do with this, but IIRC, the last time Purdue won at Illinois in consecutive seasons was '11 and '12. This team/core could certainly do it, great challenge and opportunity in front of them.
However, they should be in a good place after the players' meeting and two solid games against different opponents to get some confidence. Illinois has been a roller coaster this season, but they definitely can cause some issues on both ends of the floor.
Also, now the unbalanced schedules have a little to do with this, but IIRC, the last time Purdue won at Illinois in consecutive seasons was '11 and '12. This team/core could certainly do it, great challenge and opportunity in front of them.
For once I agree with Wole. With Wisky, MSU, UM, and Purdue (assuming we beat IL) all tightly packed into the 2/3/4 seed the tourney may have a pretty large seed impact this year on those 4 teams should 2 make the finals. If it's Purdue and either of the other 3 the finals winner could very well get the 2 seed and the other gets the 3. We win out we will have 10 Q1 wins to go with 8 Q2 wins, which will likely put us top 5 in the country in Q1+Q2 wins (Auburn, Houston, another SEC team or 2 are the only ones that 18 wins in within reach).
That said it's a stretch for us to win out. In our 4 game skid, Braeden looked gassed. Playing 3 in a row may be too much after playing almost every minute of the season.
I’m just saying it happened once before. The committee had basically chosen all of their team and top 16 seeds on Saturday. And the two big 10 teams playing each other were basically equal , so they basically gave the winner of the Big10 tournament the higher seed. And they gave the other big 10 team the lower seed. And they said unofficially before the game started that was how it was going to play out.
I’ve also seen Purdue and other schools receive very favorable locations to play at. Didn’t UW get to play at Milwaukee? And didn’t Purdue get some favorable spots like St. Louis , Indy, Louisville and Chicago ?
Looking back, I believe Purdue has received more favorable locations than nonfavorable ones.
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