SB nation does not have biggie in first round of their NBA mock draft. I have a hunch he stays.
I Bet He Stays.
- Thread starter big10best
- Start date
I would not say SB nation is the final word. All it takes is the word of one team to privately say you are our guy @ #____
SB Nation is just one step above an anonymous message board post.
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I say he goes and well deserved and thank you for being a Boilermaker.
I'm not betting but I think there's a decent chance since they've always said this is a "business deal".
Weaker class next year and they are reworking the rookie contracts in offseason
Weaker class next year and they are reworking the rookie contracts in offseason
I don't think there is any chance he stays because of the risk.
However, if he comes back and is able to get his turnovers under control, Purdue moves back into the top ten unquestionably. He will have depth behind him, which will allow him to be more aggressive on the defensive end. Keeping the entire main compenents from a sweet sixteen team and adding Eastern, Wheeler, Haarms, and Ewing. Wheeler may end up red shirting, but Eastern gives another dimension to the guard play and Haarms/Ewing give the bigs more depth. Not to mention the option of Taylor returning. Would have a shot at a final four.
If he goes, Garrison Brooks is the best realistic option for Purdue to take his place. Will keep us moving forward and he is the athletic rim protector we have needed, but haven't had.
However, if he comes back and is able to get his turnovers under control, Purdue moves back into the top ten unquestionably. He will have depth behind him, which will allow him to be more aggressive on the defensive end. Keeping the entire main compenents from a sweet sixteen team and adding Eastern, Wheeler, Haarms, and Ewing. Wheeler may end up red shirting, but Eastern gives another dimension to the guard play and Haarms/Ewing give the bigs more depth. Not to mention the option of Taylor returning. Would have a shot at a final four.
If he goes, Garrison Brooks is the best realistic option for Purdue to take his place. Will keep us moving forward and he is the athletic rim protector we have needed, but haven't had.
He is a definite redshirt. 99.9% chance. He is in the mold of a Cline and Mathias and there just aren't enough minutes for that as a freshman next year. I left him out because I assumed everybody understood that was automatic.
Biggie was itching to go last year & this year he was an AA. Not only is there a risk of injury, there is a risk he would not perform as well. What if his rebound number drops a half a point & his % from 3 goes down to the low 30's? It is a business decision, I agree, and regardless of draft position predictions there is no way he stays after his performance this past season.
I do believe that he will go. But, I doubt he is looking at staying as being a risk of health. He is an extremely confident kid that probably has no problem in betting on himself. If the data is there showing that the draft/agreements work more in his favor to stay and ride it out, then I could see it. Otherwise, he gone. This will be an upside decision, not a risk management decision.
I said a few months ago that if he enters the draft without an agent, he comes back. I still think he comes back. I also think Purdue would have spent his scholarship by now if they thought he was gone.
Why couldn't Painter et. al. take out an insurance policy on Biggie like Tom is for Miles Bridges? Perhaps since Biggie is projected lower, it would be a cheaper policy.
Yeah but his legal guardian is an agent
One factor not being mentioned that might lead him to stay is that last year he had a chip on his shoulder by not playing at the end of the NCAA game when Purdue lost the game. I think he was really angry about that. I think he wanted to leave but his common sense finally won out. This year there was no question it was his team. I would think that resentment would be gone.
They say weaker class next year but with what I've read it's much more big men focused. It would take a very significant improvement in his jumping and moving to pass up a lot of those 5 stars coming out of high school right now or those who remain in college.
I don't think his 3 point % will drop much although he may shoot a higher volume and still think he will turn in at least 40%. I think his rebounds are almost guaranteed to drop because Purdue will be a better team and he isn't going to be playing the last 10 minutes of the game because we will be up big on quite a few opponents and Painter will want to get the new guys experience when he can. Were he to come back he has to improve his movement and jumping and be ultra efficient. I just don't see him putting up better stats per game but he can greatly improve his efficiency. Right now his performance is trending upwards. Playing the exact same next year which was fantastic for a college player and would likely win him BTPOY and National POY isn't going to improve his draft stock.
How about how bad they lost to Kansas? Talk about a shot to ones ego...Being as competitive Biggie is, could that sting stay with him?
I bet he goes. I don't think his draft stock can get much higher than it is right now. If he stays and his production (while very good) is about the same, his draft stock will be either the same or lower next year (or the year after). He's always said that playing in the NBA is his #1 goal, so why not go ahead and stay in the draft this year?
I think he stays with his Business Plan approach. He did say in an interview last Winter that when he goes in his game needs to be complete. It might be that his defense still needs improve. Also, this year's draft is very very deep. Would he go without a guaranteed contract?
I want some of what you guys are smoking
I think if more than a few NBA guys tell him that if he goes back and works on a few aspects to complete his game more, he could move in to the top 15-20 next season (arguably a weak draft), he may come back to Purdue. He is on track to graduate in three years because of his online class load and his hard work in the classroom, so don't underestimate that in the slightest. The difference between #28 (roughly where he is projected now) and #15 is $1.361 million in the first two years. It would become even larger with the 3rd year option. I am guessing that rookie scale may grow even more with the supposed reworking of the rookie contracts next season in 2018.
If it is truly a business approach and Biggie believes he can better his chances by becoming an AA and B1G POTY again...then the business approach should be to return to Purdue. However, the decision is solely Biggie's and looking at the history of his decisions he has made throughout his young life, I'll venture to say that the decision he makes will be the correct one because the young man hasn't made many wrong ones yet.
This is all wasted hot air chatter.....he is going and we all need to be thankful he choose to be a Boilermaker.
I for one, wish him well and look forward to Taylor, Ewing, Wheeler and Haarms now following in his footsteps and Purdue reloading for once and moving even further towards the goal of a NCAA Championship.
Thank you Biggie and wish you the best in everything you do and remember you're always a Boilermaker so give back and visit often.
Boiler Up!
I for one, wish him well and look forward to Taylor, Ewing, Wheeler and Haarms now following in his footsteps and Purdue reloading for once and moving even further towards the goal of a NCAA Championship.
Thank you Biggie and wish you the best in everything you do and remember you're always a Boilermaker so give back and visit often.
Boiler Up!
I believe he will turn pro! Admittedly next year is a weaker class, but I do not foresee his draft stock will improve very much as NBA teams have a history of drafting unknown projects over known commodities. Yes, he could make more money if drafted higher, however that is offset by turning pro a year earlier and being eligible for his second contract extension a year earlier. In the grand scheme of things getting an NBA contract holds a much higher priority than a college degree. And if he slips in the draft, he has the opportunity to play for a much better team. I would be much happier if I were drafted by the Spurs over the Kings.
He has no chance to get drafted by the Spurs because he is not a foreigner...
However, I get your point. Sac would be his biggest nightmare...
This argument has already been decided. While most of his teammates are in the day to day of being college students and off-season practices/training, Biggie already checked out-literally...doesn't mean he won't finish the semester....wish him the best and hope he remembers to thank BoilerNation whenever he gets an interview!!
I would love to see Dallas grab him and watch him and AJ play together again. I'd actually watch the NBA again if that happened.He has no chance to get drafted by the Spurs because he is not a foreigner...
No, not really. He spent most of the year going back and forth between the Mavs roster and their D league team. A good majority of his playing time was spent with the D league. He did get some good minutes in their last 3 or 4 games when they starting playing all the younger guys. Hopefully he has a good summer and can move himself into the rotation and get maybe 10 to 15 mins a game next season.
To me the key is if MP can sell to Biggie that he, VE and IH will play a minimum of 24 minutes together each game next year. Biggie will play a max of 8 minutes per game at center. Biggie has to show the NBA scouts more drives to the hoop and the ability to guard a quicker player plus be able to be in D position to help out and rebound.
IH may also be tempted to go in the draft. He is a proficient low post scoring machine and will be very valuable to the right team as a back up center. MP will have to estimate 24-28 minutes per game for IH.
VE won't leave unless he needs the money and is content playing overseas. VE has had very good moments, but he has to show that he can consistently play as a SF. He has the tools and while he can play PF, his value professionally is at SF.
The only downside is that DM, CE and PJ have to split 75 minutes. Our incoming freshman may be ready to play 15-20 minutes, but will be limited. RC will be seen more as a sniper coming in at SG or SF at strategic moments, but his playing time will decrease to 12-15 minutes unless he finds a way to get quicker. This also means there will be only significant minutes for one incoming big man or Taylor.
IH may also be tempted to go in the draft. He is a proficient low post scoring machine and will be very valuable to the right team as a back up center. MP will have to estimate 24-28 minutes per game for IH.
VE won't leave unless he needs the money and is content playing overseas. VE has had very good moments, but he has to show that he can consistently play as a SF. He has the tools and while he can play PF, his value professionally is at SF.
The only downside is that DM, CE and PJ have to split 75 minutes. Our incoming freshman may be ready to play 15-20 minutes, but will be limited. RC will be seen more as a sniper coming in at SG or SF at strategic moments, but his playing time will decrease to 12-15 minutes unless he finds a way to get quicker. This also means there will be only significant minutes for one incoming big man or Taylor.
I just think he is going to have a hard time defending in the NBA. He might get some minutes at the 5 if the team goes small. A fast 3, or physical 4 who can shoot is gonna give him fits. Great post btw.
Imagine Biggie trying to guard Dirk, Anthony Davis, or Porzingis....next year. It would be hard to watch and if he thinks of it like that, he would be better served to come back..work on his lateral movements and explosiveness, and become a better on ball/pick and roll/pop defender. If he did come back and showed noticeable improvement in those areas while maintaining close to the numbers he did this season (which he should do), he could easily pop in to the top 20 of the draft next season.
However, I think he would much rather try to improve those things while getting paid for it and working for it on a daily basis while even on a D-League roster.
Is there a player in the league who can actually be effective guarding those guys? They are the stars but not who he would be matched up against at all times and they don't play the entire game. I understand your point about him struggling in having a position to guard but you can't name off players who are almost impossible to guard by anybody as examples.
I believe those figures are from the 2016-17 rookie scale. My understanding of the current rookie contract is that for
'17-'18 Rookies
1st year - #15 - $1.971m - #28 - $1.179m
2nd year - #15 - $2.339m - #28 - $1.399m
3rd year - #15 - $2.734m - #28 - $1.635m
and '18-19 Rookies
1st year - #15 - $2.250m - #28 - $1.346m
2nd year - #15 - $2.636m - #28 - $1.576m
3rd year - #15 - $2.761m - #28 - $1.651m
If signing this year at #28 income for the next 3 years is $4.213m
($1.179m + 1.399m+ 1.635m)
If signing next year at #15 income for the next 3 years is $4.886m
($0 + $2.250m + $2.636m)
So the net differential, while sizeable, is "only" $673,000 AND more importantly if he believes that he will become a long term NBAer, he is one year nearer shedding his rookie contract. From a business side analysis I think your analysis is far less accurate in that it fails to take into account the loss of income for the year he would return and the goal of getting past rookie contract asap. I fully agree with your sentiment that it is his decision and he seems to be getting very good advice so far, and certainly assume that it will continue.
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