Haven't watched Houston. What are we up against?

[tjreese]

Houston will blitz Smith in the PnR and tag TKR so getting the ball to the wing be the only outlet. I say Braden should pause when this happens and continue to occupy two players as cutters move into the lane where there may be an opening.

Yeah it is going to be real interesting at what point they pick up Trey as a function of the pressure put on Braden. They are quick and I don't think skip passes will get there. Like against most pressure...you want the ball to find the middle of the court and once in the middle any openings are easier to find. Will Purdue revert back to low post play for Trey? Will Purdue if unsuccessful in the high ball screen by Trey still bring Trey 12 feet from the basket and try to get the ball to him so he can drive it. Trey has been effective driving the ball. Will Purdue implement more backscreens than usual? Yes, if they make the short roll difficult players are going to need to move cutting through the lane, coming off screens away from the ball...a regression a bit more to years before because they can't stand in the corners if Purdue can't find them. AGain, I know so very little about Houston at this time other than they are quick, athletic and can shoot and work the boards...along with Sampson being a good D coach

 

[qazplm]

Wondering if we even run pick and roll, seems like a formula for playing into what Houston wants to do.

I think any chance at victory will require an off night from Cryer, an on night from at least two Boilers in addition to Smith and TKR being on (Loyer, Cox, Heide or Colvin), Furst will need to play his best game of the year rebounding and on defense, and turnovers under 10.

That scenario gives us a shot IMO. Basically a low mistakes game. No dumb fouls, no wild turnovers, take your shots, make them make plays.

If we have 15+ turnovers, turn down open 3s, and pickup dumb fouls, it's going to be a sad night indeed.

 

[proudopete]

We absolutely have to take the open shot when it presents itself even if early in the clock. Houston likes to run you into a deep shot clock and force you to take a bad shot. I can see Cox and Harris bringing the ball up court quite a bit and initiating the offense. Run Smith off ball as much as possible to take away their “blitzing” of the ball handler up top.

We can’t let them get comfortable on offense either. Do to them as they do to others and make them speed up as well. They like to have less possessions during the game as it highlights their pressure D even more. Speed them up and keep the ball out of Cyrers hands if possible.

I can see us getting out to a quick start if Paint has a plan to override what they like to do. We are going to shoot a lot from distance and we will do it early even as we try to get TKR going.

If the big 3 have average games then we need a couple of more scorers to show up to get us over the top. Harris, Cox, Heide and Colvin need to be ready to shoot as well as cutting to the basket as often as possible. Back doors should be available so I hope we set screens to get them when we can.

I just hops we can keep it close and then anything can happen as the pressure is all on them.

 

[proudopete]

One other point. We need to draw fouls and not shy away from them. Alabama beat them by shooting 40 some free throws and we can too. We need to make our free throws of course but we have to get them in foul trouble.

 

[tjreese]

So I am wondering if a screen and re-screen might be beneficial or even setting a double screen with the second screen being on either the original defender or the high hedge man, maybe causing a bit more disruption or chaos in their rotation 🤷

I'm very much in favor of screens particularly if teams are in your jock. However, not knowing anything about Houston I can see them doubling on ball screens as was the common approach years ago when D was a bit more physical and so off ball screens "might" work better. I don't think Purdue abandons the high ball screen with Trey unless their counter and quickness pose problems. I'd like to see Purdue go back a bit to some screening down 12' or so above the baseline , but close to the arc with some curls by the person getting screened and slips by the screener. I expect as a best guess with Houston that Purdue needs 1)more off ball screens 2)more slips 3) less dribble and more passing 4) some back screens & back cuts 5) would love to see clear outs for Braden to start the game 6) more driving the ball. I fear bringing two Houston defenders together and overall want Purdue to attack pressure rather than letting Houston speed them up and have them leaning back instead of forward. I think the early minutes are crucial to calm the team and send a signal that Houston's D is not going to turn Purdue over. I say all this and I don't really know Houston but just throw out some things against pressure and such. Course this is all on offense. I don't know how Purdue plays them without knowing more about the players and such...

 

[tjreese]

We absolutely have to take the open shot when it presents itself even if early in the clock. Houston likes to run you into a deep shot clock and force you to take a bad shot. I can see Cox and Harris bringing the ball up court quite a bit and initiating the offense. Run Smith off ball as much as possible to take away their “blitzing” of the ball handler up top.

We can’t let them get comfortable on offense either. Do to them as they do to others and make them speed up as well. They like to have less possessions during the game as it highlights their pressure D even more. Speed them up and keep the ball out of Cyrers hands if possible.

I can see us getting out to a quick start if Paint has a plan to override what they like to do. We are going to shoot a lot from distance and we will do it early even as we try to get TKR going.

If the big 3 have average games then we need a couple of more scorers to show up to get us over the top. Harris, Cox, Heide and Colvin need to be ready to shoot as well as cutting to the basket as often as possible. Back doors should be available so I hope we set screens to get them when we can.

I just hops we can keep it close and then anything can happen as the pressure is all on them.

This is a fine line...push the ball at every chance and try to score when Purdue has a distinct advantage. I imagine Matt tells them to take the open three on a push if there. THAT said I don't think Purdue wants to get up and down the court like a race horse since they have better quickness as a team...AND Purdue forfeits Trey in that scenario and so I think Purdue is selective in how quickly Purdue tries to score. If the dome effects perimeter shooters...Purdue might find some long rebounds to push...as does Houston if both teams are affected...and if so then Trey is still Trey and you just get more creative to get him the ball and where you get him the ball. AGain, these thoughts are with very little viewing and none on their stats and so I could be completely off...

 

[PaBoiler78]

Just from what I've read, they're big, strong, mean and athletic. Sounds very similar to Auburn this year and UConn last year.
Is Smith in for a night?
Will Fletch get any open looks?

 

[tjreese]

I wouldn’t say they are overly tall but they are physical and good rebounding team. We will be battling and need to control as best we can so we limit their second chance points.

Cryer is their leading scorer and he can stuff the stat sheet.

Their 2 primary bigs are Tugler and Roberts and it appears Roberts is the scorer but both are terrible free throw shooters. So we might see some healthily fouling of them to slow their scoring down.

They will pressure Braden hard and force our offense to start closer to half court. We can’t have errant passes and lazy plays because they will capitalize.

Braden needs to lean on Cox and Harris to release pressure and play off ball more. Honestly, that would be a genius thing to disrupt their defensive plan. Having 1/3 of the sets being run/initiated by Cox/Harris instead. Having Braden setting back screens and setting up his teammates that way.

They are riding a pretty long winning streak and those have a funny way of ending…especially when there hasn’t been a ton of competition along the way.

This looks like a good place to add to your comments. I wrote this on the other side to add to another's comments, but paste it here for whatever...

Just to add to your numbers Tony since a concern for Fletch was mentioned. The only concern for Fletch is his individual defense when defending the dribble IMO. His team defense is solid and he helps offensively most of the time with spacing the court, getting his angles, hitting his FTs and making good decisions. Who should he defend is a valid consideration. I’ve seen part of one game as a casual view and certainly don’t claim to be very knowledgeable about them. I did however look at some season numbers of what appears to be the top four offensive players for Houston. Now Houston has more contributions than those 4 on offense, but they are the largest contributors.

The four main offensive players are Cryer (6’1”) who takes 22% of the teams shots and 59% of his shots are behind the arc. He is deadly on FTs for the 3 or so each game (92 total) he takes and contributes less rebounds (78) than the other three (two of which are guards.

Sharp 6’3” takes 14% of the teams shots and 66% of his shots are behind the arc. He is deadly on FTs for the 3 or so each game (106 total) he takes and contributes (100) rebounds which is more than Cryer but less than Uzan.

So almost 2/3s of the shots taken by Cryer and Sharp are behind the arc. What I don’t know is how those shots are generated.

Uzan is the third guard who takes roughly 17% of the teams shots and only 37% of his shots are behind the arc and only gets to the line 58 times, but dominates the assists for 39% of the team’s assists. Apparently he looks to drive the ball and score inside the arc and when he causes help is a willing passer. However, doing all that he only got to the line 58 times where Sharp had 106 and Cryer 92 times.

The other scorer a forward Roberts is 6’8”. He has attempted no 3pt shots and takes roughly 15% of the shots and so they are all inside where he shoots barely over 50%. He is a 62% FT shooter and gets there 93 times or about like Cryer. He gathered 207 boards second only to Tugler a 6’8” F who had 211. The two gather 34% of the boards for the team and Tugler is the more athletic with 46% of the teams blocks and shoots 54% at the FT line. I haven’t really absorbed the above but Uzan is interesting in that he shoots less threes, but rarely gets to the line and generates most of their assists. He must not be getting to the rim, but inside the lane to either shoot a mid range or pass if he pulls help.

(1) Uzan is the tallest at 6’4”. If he doesn’t put pressure at the rim will Fletch guard him to not pick up fouls as well as trying to provide some height as a defender in the lane since he apparently doesn't drive to the rim?

(2)Or does Purdue put Fletch on Sharp or Cryer who shoot almost 2/3s of their shots behind the arc and try to put CJ/Giccari on Uzan and apply pressure on the ball? Course we know Purdue switches a lot, but with Cryer and Sharp shooting mostly behind the arc will Purdue go over on those two and under on Uzan? I think we see #2

 

[Dryfly88]

I know we love the high ball screen with TKR, but I'm telling you, we run that against these guys and they are going to smother Smith. Don't bring an extra defender to him. Space is the key against them. Make them guard large spaces. We have to do a lot of things right to win this one obviously. We are the underdog after all, but one thing is for sure, they will try to disrupt Smith whenever they can. We don't want to help them do that.

 

[Chi-Boiler]

This looks like a good place to add to your comments. I wrote this on the other side to add to another's comments, but paste it here for whatever...

Just to add to your numbers Tony since a concern for Fletch was mentioned. The only concern for Fletch is his individual defense when defending the dribble IMO. His team defense is solid and he helps offensively most of the time with spacing the court, getting his angles, hitting his FTs and making good decisions. Who should he defend is a valid consideration. I’ve seen part of one game as a casual view and certainly don’t claim to be very knowledgeable about them. I did however look at some season numbers of what appears to be the top four offensive players for Houston. Now Houston has more contributions than those 4 on offense, but they are the largest contributors.

The four main offensive players are Cryer (6’1”) who takes 22% of the teams shots and 59% of his shots are behind the arc. He is deadly on FTs for the 3 or so each game (92 total) he takes and contributes less rebounds (78) than the other three (two of which are guards.

Sharp 6’3” takes 14% of the teams shots and 66% of his shots are behind the arc. He is deadly on FTs for the 3 or so each game (106 total) he takes and contributes (100) rebounds which is more than Cryer but less than Uzan.

So almost 2/3s of the shots taken by Cryer and Sharp are behind the arc. What I don’t know is how those shots are generated.

Uzan is the third guard who takes roughly 17% of the teams shots and only 37% of his shots are behind the arc and only gets to the line 58 times, but dominates the assists for 39% of the team’s assists. Apparently he looks to drive the ball and score inside the arc and when he causes help is a willing passer. However, doing all that he only got to the line 58 times where Sharp had 106 and Cryer 92 times.

The other scorer a forward Roberts is 6’8”. He has attempted no 3pt shots and takes roughly 15% of the shots and so they are all inside where he shoots barely over 50%. He is a 62% FT shooter and gets there 93 times or about like Cryer. He gathered 207 boards second only to Tugler a 6’8” F who had 211. The two gather 34% of the boards for the team and Tugler is the more athletic with 46% of the teams blocks and shoots 54% at the FT line. I haven’t really absorbed the above but Uzan is interesting in that he shoots less threes, but rarely gets to the line and generates most of their assists. He must not be getting to the rim, but inside the lane to either shoot a mid range or pass if he pulls help.

(1) Uzan is the tallest at 6’4”. If he doesn’t put pressure at the rim will Fletch guard him to not pick up fouls as well as trying to provide some height as a defender in the lane since he apparently doesn't drive to the rim?

(2)Or does Purdue put Fletch on Sharp or Cryer who shoot almost 2/3s of their shots behind the arc and try to put CJ/Giccari on Uzan and apply pressure on the ball? Course we know Purdue switches a lot, but with Cryer and Sharp shooting mostly behind the arc will Purdue go over on those two and under on Uzan? I think we see #2

I think CJ will start on Uzan since he is now their primary ball-handler. Fletch on Sharp. Braden on Cryer. Obviously we switch a ton but that's how it will start IMO. Not sure about up-front but probably switch back and forth because Roberts can draw so many fouls. Tugler isn't as much of an offensive threat, neither is Francis off the bench.

 

[tjreese]

I know we love the high ball screen with TKR, but I'm telling you, we run that against these guys and they are going to smother Smith. Don't bring an extra defender to him. Space is the key against them. Make them guard large spaces. We have to do a lot of things right to win this one obviously. We are the underdog after all, but one thing is for sure, they will try to disrupt Smith whenever they can. We don't want to help them do that.

your concerns are legit IMO. There are other ways of getting the ball to Trey whether on the blocks or others screening for Braden or nobody around Braden and screens elsewhere. Trey can drive the ball and get to his spot, but I think Trey has to have have his eyes on passing as well. Should Purdue run the Trey ball screen for Braden and I'm sure they are going to and see what Houston does early, but if They play the roll of Trey's as most team and Trey is a passer that corner where the help came is open for a jumper. That said not screening for Braden is a viable thought IMO should Houston eat up the typical Trey ball screen which I'm sure Purdue tests.

 

[ImRonBurgandy?]

Whatever we were doing against Auburn...we probably shouldn't do vs. Houston.

 

[tjreese]

Whatever we were doing against Auburn...we probably shouldn't do vs. Houston.

at least some of that Purdue shouldn't do

 

[ChoiceBeef]

Found this interesting tidbit.

 

[ImRonBurgandy?]

Found this interesting tidbit.

View embedded media

Thanks for sharing. Really hard to win that many in a row in a major conference + tourney. I said earlier in another thread, but as good as Houston's been, I feel like they are also ripe for the picking.