Efficiency margin ranks by quarter season

[boilerzz]

Purdue has now played 31 games. So, I thought I'd break the long season down into quarters (or close) and look at Purdue's efficiency margin for each. My assumption is the old adage of things never being as good or bad as they seem will play out but let's see.

• Q1 - Purdue went 7-1 to open the season, with a great win over Bama, a reasonable loss at Marquette and a bunch of cupcakes in between.
  • Total Efficiency rank - 17th
  • Offensive Efficiency rank - 6th
  • Defensive Efficiency rank - 79th
• Q2 - Purdue went 5-3 in this stretch, starting just 1-3 with the embarrassing loss to PSU, reasonable loss to a good Texas A&M and understandable loss to a great Auburn.
  • Total Efficiency rank - 24th
  • Offensive Efficiency rank - 23rd
  • Defensive Efficiency rank - 55th
• Q3 - Purdue went 7-1 in this stretch and it was part of the most sustained defensive success Purdue had this season. The only loss during this quartile was the inexplicable home loss to OSU
  • Total Efficiency rank - 7th
  • Offensive Efficiency rank - 7th
  • Defensive Efficiency rank - 18th
• Q4 - Purdue is only 2-5 in the last 7 games, so you'd expect the metrics to fall off a cliff. The offense has held it's own and kept the overall metric higher than some would expect. The defense tho......
  • Total Efficiency rank - 30th
  • Offensive Efficiency rank - 8th
  • Defensive Efficiency rank - 165th
• Overall season - Purdue is 21-10
  • Total Efficiency rank - 13th
  • Offensive Efficiency rank - 7th
  • Defensive Efficiency rank - 51th

 

[boilerzz]

One other thing that I think is really interesting in the numbers is free throw rate rank (or the frequency that Purdue/opponents get to the free throw line) by quartile. Outside of the competition ramping, I'm not sure what's changed in Q4 that cause this wild of a swing from the norm.

Q1 - FT rate - 21st / defensive FT rate - 24th
Q2 - FT rate - 272nd / defensive FT rate - 84th
Q3 - FT rate - 44th / defensive FT rate - 18th
Q4 - FT rate - 338th / defensive FT rate - 323rd

 

[Old Gold n Black]

One other thing that I think is really interesting in the numbers is free throw rate rank (or the frequency that Purdue/opponents get to the free throw line) by quartile. Outside of the competition ramping, I'm not sure what's changed in Q4 that cause this wild of a swing from the norm.

Q1 - FT rate - 21st / defensive FT rate - 24th
Q2 - FT rate - 272nd / defensive FT rate - 84th
Q3 - FT rate - 44th / defensive FT rate - 18th
Q4 - FT rate - 338th / defensive FT rate - 323rd

The league decided it was sick of Purdue? Refs betting on games? The BT conference wanted to ensure more popular big-name teams made the tourney to bring in more $$$?

I mean, what else could this be attributed to? It's not like we turned into a different team.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

The league decided it was sick of Purdue? Refs betting on games? The BT conference wanted to ensure more popular big-name teams made the tourney to bring in more $$$?

I mean, what else could this be attributed to? It's not like we turned into a different team.

One other thing that I think is really interesting in the numbers is free throw rate rank (or the frequency that Purdue/opponents get to the free throw line) by quartile. Outside of the competition ramping, I'm not sure what's changed in Q4 that cause this wild of a swing from the norm.

Q1 - FT rate - 21st / defensive FT rate - 24th
Q2 - FT rate - 272nd / defensive FT rate - 84th
Q3 - FT rate - 44th / defensive FT rate - 18th
Q4 - FT rate - 338th / defensive FT rate - 323rd

I do think a big chunk of it's attributable to the schedule and competition, zz. Purdue can't control that, but the last seven games had the toughest conference road tilts (and better defensive teams), plus throw in a home game against a really good offensive team and a really good defensive team. I think also - pure speculation - but fatigue hits all teams, think it hit Purdue maybe above the average.....which just happens some years, and we saw the stats - Purdue was consistently playing on shorter rest for a good part of the season too, and that may have caught up with them - no excuses, however......just possible explanations for the numbers. JMHO

Painter did mention this disparity slightly after Illinois (when getting asked about it) - saying they've not kept people in front of them, so yeah - Purdue fouls more than it had the last several seasons.....but they maybe weren't getting some calls on the other end - said it seemed like it was only noticeable on the road.....he also said more than once, the officials have a tough job.

Here's a novel approach that won't go anywhere - why not keep crews together so they can work better/more efficiently and have some consistency, whether it's more physical or tight whistle......and maybe not have some of these guys and gals globetrotting among multiple conferences???

I will also say there is a pretty wide dispersion with some of the crews, and I will leave it at that.

Now.....back to regularly scheduled ranting.....

 

[Old Gold n Black]

One other thing that I think is really interesting in the numbers is free throw rate rank (or the frequency that Purdue/opponents get to the free throw line) by quartile. Outside of the competition ramping, I'm not sure what's changed in Q4 that cause this wild of a swing from the norm.

Q1 - FT rate - 21st / defensive FT rate - 24th
Q2 - FT rate - 272nd / defensive FT rate - 84th
Q3 - FT rate - 44th / defensive FT rate - 18th
Q4 - FT rate - 338th / defensive FT rate - 323rd

It would be interesting to see what the relative SOS was for each quarter.

 

[boilerzz]

It would be interesting to see what the relative SOS was for each quarter.

I was going to include that. And then I realized Torvik doesn't post that. And that's the only efficiency margin I've seen that allow you to look at metrics between a date range.

 

[Dryfly88]

I do think a big chunk of it's attributable to the schedule and competition, zz. Purdue can't control that, but the last seven games had the toughest conference road tilts (and better defensive teams), plus throw in a home game against a really good offensive team and a really good defensive team. I think also - pure speculation - but fatigue hits all teams, think it hit Purdue maybe above the average.....which just happens some years, and we saw the stats - Purdue was consistently playing on shorter rest for a good part of the season too, and that may have caught up with them - no excuses, however......just possible explanations for the numbers. JMHO

Painter did mention this disparity slightly after Illinois (when getting asked about it) - saying they've not kept people in front of them, so yeah - Purdue fouls more than it had the last several seasons.....but they maybe weren't getting some calls on the other end - said it seemed like it was only noticeable on the road.....he also said more than once, the officials have a tough job.

Here's a novel approach that won't go anywhere - why not keep crews together so they can work better/more efficiently and have some consistency, whether it's more physical or tight whistle......and maybe not have some of these guys and gals globetrotting among multiple conferences???

I will also say there is a pretty wide dispersion with some of the crews, and I will leave it at that.

Now.....back to regularly scheduled ranting.....

Tex, I really like the idea of crews staying together and making them employees instead of independent contractors doing 6 games in a week in 3 time zones. With all the money being thrown around, that might be some of the best spent dollars by major conferences.

 

[Old Gold n Black]

Tex, I really like the idea of crews staying together and making them employees instead of independent contractors doing 6 games in a week in 3 time zones. With all the money being thrown around, that might be some of the best spent dollars by major conferences.

An obvious gotcha with that arrangement could result in wildly different reffing styles per region. How would teams then respond in the tourney after being "trained" to play a certain way? Which refs get invited to the tournament, and would they stay matched with their season-long peers or get split up? No easy answers here.

 

[Dryfly88]

An obvious gotcha with that arrangement could result in wildly different reffing styles per region. How would teams then respond in the tourney after being "trained" to play a certain way? Which refs get invited to the tournament, and would they stay matched with their season-long peers or get split up? No easy answers here.

I think you're describing exactly what we have now. Wildly different styles in different conferences and not knowing what to expect when you get to the tournament.
Maybe the power conference could get together and "share" the crews. Have reasonable travel schedules and accountability across the major conferences. Grade the crews like they do in the NFL and reward those that score well by making them the tournament crews. Just spit balling, but I think it could work and maybe improve the officiating. Just the travel schedules alone now makes you wonder how they function at all.