Do Painter Coached teams Perform worse than expected?

[guppy likes purdue]

Luck is the Kenpom stat that differentiates expected record for a team of certain quality verse their actual record as a ratio Purdue is 331st this year at -.117 and by Quality I mean adjusted efficiency

So how does this compare historically over Painters tenure

2019 -.117
2018 +.006
2017 +.016
2016 -.046
2015 -.006
2014 -.042
2013 -.060
2012 -.003
2011 +.007
2010 +.070
2009 -.012
2008 -.023
2007 +.002
2006 -.009


total minus this year -.100 Average -.008
including this year -.217 Average-..015


Note: including this year is a tad off because it should have considerably less weight

What does this mean: Painter has probably dropped 4-5 more games in his career than he should have

More than likely there will be a bit of a return to the mean this year though not out of the realm of possibility that it won't

This doesn't weight more important games either but this was just something quick I wanted to look at and doesn't mean much it looks like Painter teams are probably perform a little worse than they should but ehh.

 

[tenwest]

Luck is the Kenpom stat that differentiates expected record for a team of certain quality verse their actual record as a ratio Purdue is 331st this year at -.117 and by Quality I mean adjusted efficiency

So how does this compare historically over Painters tenure

2019 -.117
2018 +.006
2017 +.016
2016 -.046
2015 -.006
2014 -.042
2013 -.060
2012 -.003
2011 +.007
2010 +.070
2009 -.012
2008 -.023
2007 +.002
2006 -.009


total minus this year -.100 Average -.008
including this year -.217 Average-..015


Note: including this year is a tad off because it should have considerably less weight

What does this mean: Painter has probably dropped 4-5 more games in his career than he should have

More than likely there will be a bit of a return to the mean this year though not out of the realm of possibility that it won't

This doesn't weight more important games either but this was just something quick I wanted to look at and doesn't mean much it looks like Painter teams are probably perform a little worse than they should but ehh.

Geeez. The game of college basketball has sure passed me by. Thats all Greek to me.

 

[BoilerBulldog]

This paints a slightly different picture.

 

[KentuckyBoiler]

This paints a slightly different picture.

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Yeah that cleared it up.

 

[Bay Area Boiler]

This paints a slightly different picture.

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That literally has nothing to do with what the OP said. There’s no way to differentiate the opponent in that graph.

 

[Wolegib]

have you taken into consideration painter's home record before and after the installation of the megatron scoreboard? and also before and after the floor was replaced due to the flooding water damage? and before and after the controversial John Denver concert?

 

[BoilerAndy]

Geeez. The game of college basketball has sure passed me by. Thats all Greek to me.

I thought about this the other day. There are as many things tracked in basketball now as there are in baseball.

 

[Stuffshot]

I thought about this the other day. There are as many things tracked in basketball now as there are in baseball.

Well, yeah, except for about 60-70 years of history.

 

[BoilerBulldog]

That literally has nothing to do with what the OP said. There’s no way to differentiate the opponent in that graph.

Where did I say it did? It simply shows Painter is better than around 2/3 of all college coaches in close games. Close games are won and lost by "luck". There is a commonly accepted definition of "slightly"; I trust you know it.

For example "bad luck" could be your 90% FT shooting All American missing two free throws with the game on the line.

 

[Wolegib]

someone once pointed out missing FTs short at the end of a game is an indicator of a tired player. This would indicate the player is either out of shape or that he has played too many minutes. that would indicate either a bad coach with very bad substitution decisions, or we have no bench players worthy of playing. Which would be an indicator of having a very bad recruiting season or coordinator. which could indicate the talent in the Midwest is just not as good as it used to be. which could indicate the downfall of Sears.

 

[BoilerBulldog]

The point of the OP thread is that we are statistically significantly off where we would expect our performance to be in “like” games from our recent past. To put it another way, Painter could’ve done absolutely zero things differently in those games and KenPom would’ve expected us to win at least 1-2. 95% of D1 schools have had better luck than us so far this year.

My post showed we are also performing well below Painter’s history in close games this year as well. Painter is right with Izzo and Bielein in close games historically but this year has slipped. Add that to the 4th hardest schedule and it’s no wonder we are struggling.

So we either assume something abnormal has happened and this is the new norm. Or we start regressing back to our historical means in both.

Obviously only one option gets us in the tourney this year.

 

[meenie]

Did creams number one iu team that had two lottery picks underachieve? Barely got out of the first round and got killed by the cuse in the sweet sixteen.