Welcome to the second year edition of Covering the Tracks. Sports gambling in the United States, and especially in Indiana, has boomed over the past year. In just September of this year, Indiana gamblers wagered roughly $207 million dollars on everything from Korean Baseball (Go Dinos) to the NFL to French Open Tennis. The trajectory of sports gambling is only going to continue upwards with continuing legalization across the country, so I figured KHC could use a bit of gambling coverage to supplement the already fantastic football coverage. Since last year, Michigan, Illinois, and Tennessee have all added legal gambling options. So if you are a reader from one of those states, welcome to the world of legality.
For first timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt. I, as I assume most of you, genuinely did not believe this season would occur, so it is a privilege to speculate on the Boilers this fall (Keep this in mind this year if Purdue loses to *insert bad team of your personal choosing*).
I am by no means an expert, but if anyone is looking to get into sports gambling particularly on Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. Always look for value. I take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public causes inflation of lines and value is found on the other side. Indiana now offers multiple online books. I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid will make this year very challenging. The Big Ten has stricter guidelines than any other conference, so a player contracting the virus is out for a significant chunk of time. Wisconsin’s QB room could not illustrate this point better if I tried. Players may not be ruled out until right before the game and line adjustment could be drastic. I would recommend waiting until as close to gametime as possible to place your wagers. As we saw last week, Rondale became a Friday scratch as did King. It still worked out for the Boilers, but a general rule of thumb, the public tends to overreact to news. If a player is ruled out, expect the public to jump noticeably on the opposite side. For example, after the Rondale news the line moved a half point from Boilers +3 to +3.5. A half point. That is it. And yet, the public jumped on Iowa.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2020 Illinois Fighting Illini.
Week 1 RECAP:
It is always nice to start a season of 2-0 (arguably 3-0 if you hopped on the +160 ML train too). Iowa threw the ball more than I expected, but the new QB made quite a few mistakes. Ultimately the fumbles by Iowa, deep in to drives, really helped the under. AOC gets a ton of credit for his gutsy performance, but his two interceptions really helped the under too. The public jumped on Iowa heavy before the game due to the Brohm/Rondale/King news and the sharps bought back. From a purely betting standpoint, it was almost a no sweat cover as even an Iowa touchdown would have given Purdue the cover. But as a ML holder and a fan, great job Purdue D. This game was a prime example of the importance of line movement prior to gametime. Public hammered and the line stayed strong, Vegas was comfortable with the line set for good reason.
2020 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 1-0 ATS, Overs are 0-1
Illinois: 0-1 ATS, Overs are 1-0
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:30am on 10/30/20:
Current spread: Purdue -7.5 (Opened -5)
Over/Under: 59 (Opened 58)
Bets: 66% on Purdue, 59% on over
Money: 85% on Purdue, 52% on over
Illinois O/U: 25.5 (Over -115, Under -114)
Purdue O/U: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -114)
Smith v. Brohm:
· 2017: 29-10 Purdue wins vs Illinois
· 2018: 46-7 Purdue wins at Illinois
· 2019: 24-6 Purdue loses vs Illinois
· Brohm is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 SU against Smith while Brohm has been at Purdue.
Trend Analysis for Illinois:
· Purdue under Brohm is 10-5 ATS as the away team. Specifically, Purdue is 3-4 ATS under Brohm when an away favorite. Purdue was 0-1 ATS last year as an away favorite after failing to cover against Nevada. Purdue opened as an away favorite against NW last year, but that line closed with NW as the favorite.
· Brohm’s Boilers are 10-6 ATS after a win. Purdue was 3-1 ATS after a win last year covering against Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Iowa while failing to cover against TCU. It is worth noting Purdue was an underdog in all three ATS covers after a win.
· Since Lovie took over in 2016, Illinois is 8-10 ATS as a home underdog. Illinois was 3-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2019.
· Purdue has not lost at Illinois since 2010 when it lost 44-10. For the historians out there, Illinois Nate Scheelhaase torched the Boilers to the tune of 16-20, 195 yards and four touchdowns.
· After a loss under Lovie Smith, Illinois is 13-17 ATS.
· In conference games, Illinois under Smith is 18-19 ATS.
· Since 2016, the over is 10-8 when Illinois is a home underdog.
· Since 2016, the over is 18-12 in Illinois games after a loss.
· Since 2017, the over is 2-5 when Purdue is an away favorite.
· Since 2017, the over is 7-9 in Purdue games after a win.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Covid. This will be here every week. There is no possible way to account for the impact Covid will have week to week. There will be players and coaches that are scratched literally last minute. While Rondale and King were not lost due to COVID, we still saw how unpredictable this season will be. We may very well have zero idea till an hour before the game starts. If you’re a coach, why on Earth would you disclose this earlier than you need to? Do not bet until as close to gametime as feasibly possible.
· 10% chance of precipitation expected in Champaign, Illinois on Saturday. I will comfortably say last year’s Illinois-Purdue game was a top three worst Purdue game I have ever sat through in my life (right up there with the raining loss to EMU) and that game result was very much a result of the rain. Purdue could not stop shooting themselves in the foot as the offense never got going. No rain certainly seems to be a positive.
· Welcome back Coach! Brian Brohm, Mr. 98 overall in NCAA football 2008, called a good enough game to get the Boilers a massive win. I personally thought he was a tad conservative, but a win is a win. With Jeff back calling plays I expect the playbook to open up. The offensive line’s performance last week can give more confidence in Brohm to use some of those long developing plays to take shots and such down the field as well.
· Illinois technically had one more day to prepare for this game than Purdue. Illinois got embarrassed on primetime TV against Wisconsin by 38 last Friday. Does the extra day matter? Probably not, especially given the COVID risk Illinois was bracing for due to Wisconsin’s positive tests. Just worth mentioning that for all technical purposes, Illinois does have a “rest advantage” albeit a very minor one.
· Purdue is very much in a look ahead spot here. After a massive win against Iowa, and Wisconsin potentially on the horizon, a terrible Illinois team is all that stands between Purdue and a Big Ten West showdown. It is crucial the Boilers approach Illinois as they did Iowa.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: The sample size of bets placed are low, but still helpful. I expect this to be the case each week so it is very important to track Sharp and Public action right up until game time. The numbers could drastically change with any piece of information. The numbers right now are kind of what you expect given the results of last week. The public seems very heavy on Purdue early. The line moved almost instantly from 5.5 to 7 and had stayed steady at seven until this morning when it went to 7.5. Almost all the money thus far is on Purdue, hovering around 85%. From a contrarian standpoint, the public buy is certainly a concern.
One caveat worth mentioning is what is known to many as the hook. The hook is the extra half point attached to a football number (Most commonly three or seven). For example, a hook would be Illinois +7.5 or Purdue -6.5 because the hook allows Illinois to cover if Illinois loses by a touchdown or Purdue to cover if it just wins by a touchdown. Vegas will tend to use hooks to entice gamblers to pick a side. The hook is almost like a safety blanket, a little half point that makes you feel all warm and cozy. However, proceed with caution. Vegas is daring you to take the hook and will sometimes bring down the hammer. Purdue moving to -7.5 could potentially be a positive for Purdue because Vegas could be inciting bettors to back Illinois since they will have the security of covering even if they lose by a touchdown. Vegas could very well just be trying to even out the large amount of bets and money on Purdue to limit Vegas’ own liability, or Vegas genuinely is worried about Purdue and is giving the hook to try to salvage liability. Some books have the line creeping to -8, so my gut says this line movement is to level out liability and that Illinois +7.5 should not be discouraged solely because of the hook.
Situationally: This is a bad, bad, bad spot for Purdue. From a situational standpoint maybe the worst spot since the Michigan State game after the Ohio State win. Purdue is coming off a massive win over Iowa to start the season 1-0, without Jeff Brohm and Rondale Moore. Meanwhile, Illinois just got DESTROYED on Friday night against Wisconsin. Graham Mertz looked like a Heisman candidate with his performance. Purdue being only a seven point favorite concerned me, a lot. It felt low given what happened on Friday and Saturday. Generally, if it is too good to be true, it is, and a lot of this has to do with the situational spot. Purdue is probably a tad overvalued, but more so, I think Illinois is extremely undervalued. Do situational spots dictate the game? It depends. Could Purdue still blow Illinois out despite the situational spot? Absolutely. That is what happened in 2018 when Purdue came off a win to destroy Illinois by almost forty (40) points. Regardless, I would proceed cautiously with the concern this line is inflated.
Trends: The trends went out the window in Purdue’s first game as the Boilers put an end to Iowa’s long standing cover streak in games where Iowa was less than a 6 point favorite. Purdue also ended their streak of losing games within seven points. Will the trends start to pick up this week? The trends seem to suggest a slight lean to Purdue as Illinois has generally struggled over the past couple years ATS. However, the general rule of thumb with a Jeff Brohm Purdue team is to ride them as underdogs and fade as favorites. From Purdue’s standpoint, the trends point to the under, while the trends point to an over for Illinois. For me, the trends do not weigh nearly as heavy here as the other two aspects do.
Total Analysis: Purdue strikes me as too good to be true. After what I watched from Illinois on Friday, I would have expected Purdue to come out closer to Purdue -10. The trends are not a surprise. Brohm has generally sustained success against Lovie and Purdue has owned Illinois for the better part of the last decade. Even Darrell Hazell could win at Illinois. Purdue’s offensive line really impressed on Saturday. Iowa had lost a lot of talent on the defensive line, but the O-Line held their own all day against what is still a good Iowa defensive line. Jeff coming back to call plays with this offensive line should hopefully allow for some big plays down the field. Illinois is a transfer heavy program. Maybe it is just going to take their new guys some time to warm up? The Illini had momentum last year for the first time in what seemed like forever. Wisconsin came in against them seeking revenge after the upset last year. Will Purdue do the same? Purdue got a lot of help last week from turnovers. This significantly stimulated the under to hit and helped Purdue close for the win. Turnovers are, to an extent, lucky. It would be foolish to consistently assume a defense is going to secure turnovers week in and week out, but Purdue has to continue to win the turnover battle. AOC looked good, but both those interceptions were his fault. On the other hand, Illinois held the ball for so little time, it is hard to truly get a read on their offense. They ran the ball twenty five (25) times and threw twenty two (22) and did not have much success with either.
Prediction: 31-24 Boilers. The old saying is you should never feel comfortable taking a bet. I do not feel good about taking Illinois. This is very much a brain over heart play. The trends are not strong enough one way to dictate a play. The public and situational spots just go too much in favor of betting on the Illini. Illinois looked so bad, they have to be undervalued to some extent. Purdue got some national attention for the win over Iowa and I am worried about a little bit of a come down as well as Vegas taking advantage of the over value on the Boilers. Illinois’ offense is not good, but I expect a much better showing here as Iowa showed Purdue still has some room for improvement with the run defense. IIllinois is not going to be running and gunning by any stretch, so I still foresee the under hitting just barely. I plan on posting updates on line movement as well as public betting percentages on Twitter @PurdueGambling.
Plays: Illinois +7.5, Under 59. Gross, gross, gross, bets. Call this fan insurance if you wish. But the numbers are the numbers. Purdue rolls into Wisconsin 2-0.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-0, thank you Rutgers): West Virginia -2.5. West Virginia favored? At home? Against Kansas State? Sharps on Neers early.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +3.5 against Maryland meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 3 or 4.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3.5 or Maryland -3.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 3.5 points or win. If one bets on the Maryland spread, Maryland would have to win outright by more than 3.5.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue loses to Maryland by 3, Maryland has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt. I, as I assume most of you, genuinely did not believe this season would occur, so it is a privilege to speculate on the Boilers this fall (Keep this in mind this year if Purdue loses to *insert bad team of your personal choosing*).
I am by no means an expert, but if anyone is looking to get into sports gambling particularly on Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. Always look for value. I take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public causes inflation of lines and value is found on the other side. Indiana now offers multiple online books. I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid will make this year very challenging. The Big Ten has stricter guidelines than any other conference, so a player contracting the virus is out for a significant chunk of time. Wisconsin’s QB room could not illustrate this point better if I tried. Players may not be ruled out until right before the game and line adjustment could be drastic. I would recommend waiting until as close to gametime as possible to place your wagers. As we saw last week, Rondale became a Friday scratch as did King. It still worked out for the Boilers, but a general rule of thumb, the public tends to overreact to news. If a player is ruled out, expect the public to jump noticeably on the opposite side. For example, after the Rondale news the line moved a half point from Boilers +3 to +3.5. A half point. That is it. And yet, the public jumped on Iowa.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2020 Illinois Fighting Illini.
Week 1 RECAP:
It is always nice to start a season of 2-0 (arguably 3-0 if you hopped on the +160 ML train too). Iowa threw the ball more than I expected, but the new QB made quite a few mistakes. Ultimately the fumbles by Iowa, deep in to drives, really helped the under. AOC gets a ton of credit for his gutsy performance, but his two interceptions really helped the under too. The public jumped on Iowa heavy before the game due to the Brohm/Rondale/King news and the sharps bought back. From a purely betting standpoint, it was almost a no sweat cover as even an Iowa touchdown would have given Purdue the cover. But as a ML holder and a fan, great job Purdue D. This game was a prime example of the importance of line movement prior to gametime. Public hammered and the line stayed strong, Vegas was comfortable with the line set for good reason.
2020 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 1-0 ATS, Overs are 0-1
Illinois: 0-1 ATS, Overs are 1-0
Current Betting breakdowns as of 9:30am on 10/30/20:
Current spread: Purdue -7.5 (Opened -5)
Over/Under: 59 (Opened 58)
Bets: 66% on Purdue, 59% on over
Money: 85% on Purdue, 52% on over
Illinois O/U: 25.5 (Over -115, Under -114)
Purdue O/U: 34.5 (Over -115, Under -114)
Smith v. Brohm:
· 2017: 29-10 Purdue wins vs Illinois
· 2018: 46-7 Purdue wins at Illinois
· 2019: 24-6 Purdue loses vs Illinois
· Brohm is 2-1 ATS and 2-1 SU against Smith while Brohm has been at Purdue.
Trend Analysis for Illinois:
· Purdue under Brohm is 10-5 ATS as the away team. Specifically, Purdue is 3-4 ATS under Brohm when an away favorite. Purdue was 0-1 ATS last year as an away favorite after failing to cover against Nevada. Purdue opened as an away favorite against NW last year, but that line closed with NW as the favorite.
· Brohm’s Boilers are 10-6 ATS after a win. Purdue was 3-1 ATS after a win last year covering against Wisconsin, Northwestern, and Iowa while failing to cover against TCU. It is worth noting Purdue was an underdog in all three ATS covers after a win.
· Since Lovie took over in 2016, Illinois is 8-10 ATS as a home underdog. Illinois was 3-0 ATS as a home underdog in 2019.
· Purdue has not lost at Illinois since 2010 when it lost 44-10. For the historians out there, Illinois Nate Scheelhaase torched the Boilers to the tune of 16-20, 195 yards and four touchdowns.
· After a loss under Lovie Smith, Illinois is 13-17 ATS.
· In conference games, Illinois under Smith is 18-19 ATS.
· Since 2016, the over is 10-8 when Illinois is a home underdog.
· Since 2016, the over is 18-12 in Illinois games after a loss.
· Since 2017, the over is 2-5 when Purdue is an away favorite.
· Since 2017, the over is 7-9 in Purdue games after a win.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Covid. This will be here every week. There is no possible way to account for the impact Covid will have week to week. There will be players and coaches that are scratched literally last minute. While Rondale and King were not lost due to COVID, we still saw how unpredictable this season will be. We may very well have zero idea till an hour before the game starts. If you’re a coach, why on Earth would you disclose this earlier than you need to? Do not bet until as close to gametime as feasibly possible.
· 10% chance of precipitation expected in Champaign, Illinois on Saturday. I will comfortably say last year’s Illinois-Purdue game was a top three worst Purdue game I have ever sat through in my life (right up there with the raining loss to EMU) and that game result was very much a result of the rain. Purdue could not stop shooting themselves in the foot as the offense never got going. No rain certainly seems to be a positive.
· Welcome back Coach! Brian Brohm, Mr. 98 overall in NCAA football 2008, called a good enough game to get the Boilers a massive win. I personally thought he was a tad conservative, but a win is a win. With Jeff back calling plays I expect the playbook to open up. The offensive line’s performance last week can give more confidence in Brohm to use some of those long developing plays to take shots and such down the field as well.
· Illinois technically had one more day to prepare for this game than Purdue. Illinois got embarrassed on primetime TV against Wisconsin by 38 last Friday. Does the extra day matter? Probably not, especially given the COVID risk Illinois was bracing for due to Wisconsin’s positive tests. Just worth mentioning that for all technical purposes, Illinois does have a “rest advantage” albeit a very minor one.
· Purdue is very much in a look ahead spot here. After a massive win against Iowa, and Wisconsin potentially on the horizon, a terrible Illinois team is all that stands between Purdue and a Big Ten West showdown. It is crucial the Boilers approach Illinois as they did Iowa.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: The sample size of bets placed are low, but still helpful. I expect this to be the case each week so it is very important to track Sharp and Public action right up until game time. The numbers could drastically change with any piece of information. The numbers right now are kind of what you expect given the results of last week. The public seems very heavy on Purdue early. The line moved almost instantly from 5.5 to 7 and had stayed steady at seven until this morning when it went to 7.5. Almost all the money thus far is on Purdue, hovering around 85%. From a contrarian standpoint, the public buy is certainly a concern.
One caveat worth mentioning is what is known to many as the hook. The hook is the extra half point attached to a football number (Most commonly three or seven). For example, a hook would be Illinois +7.5 or Purdue -6.5 because the hook allows Illinois to cover if Illinois loses by a touchdown or Purdue to cover if it just wins by a touchdown. Vegas will tend to use hooks to entice gamblers to pick a side. The hook is almost like a safety blanket, a little half point that makes you feel all warm and cozy. However, proceed with caution. Vegas is daring you to take the hook and will sometimes bring down the hammer. Purdue moving to -7.5 could potentially be a positive for Purdue because Vegas could be inciting bettors to back Illinois since they will have the security of covering even if they lose by a touchdown. Vegas could very well just be trying to even out the large amount of bets and money on Purdue to limit Vegas’ own liability, or Vegas genuinely is worried about Purdue and is giving the hook to try to salvage liability. Some books have the line creeping to -8, so my gut says this line movement is to level out liability and that Illinois +7.5 should not be discouraged solely because of the hook.
Situationally: This is a bad, bad, bad spot for Purdue. From a situational standpoint maybe the worst spot since the Michigan State game after the Ohio State win. Purdue is coming off a massive win over Iowa to start the season 1-0, without Jeff Brohm and Rondale Moore. Meanwhile, Illinois just got DESTROYED on Friday night against Wisconsin. Graham Mertz looked like a Heisman candidate with his performance. Purdue being only a seven point favorite concerned me, a lot. It felt low given what happened on Friday and Saturday. Generally, if it is too good to be true, it is, and a lot of this has to do with the situational spot. Purdue is probably a tad overvalued, but more so, I think Illinois is extremely undervalued. Do situational spots dictate the game? It depends. Could Purdue still blow Illinois out despite the situational spot? Absolutely. That is what happened in 2018 when Purdue came off a win to destroy Illinois by almost forty (40) points. Regardless, I would proceed cautiously with the concern this line is inflated.
Trends: The trends went out the window in Purdue’s first game as the Boilers put an end to Iowa’s long standing cover streak in games where Iowa was less than a 6 point favorite. Purdue also ended their streak of losing games within seven points. Will the trends start to pick up this week? The trends seem to suggest a slight lean to Purdue as Illinois has generally struggled over the past couple years ATS. However, the general rule of thumb with a Jeff Brohm Purdue team is to ride them as underdogs and fade as favorites. From Purdue’s standpoint, the trends point to the under, while the trends point to an over for Illinois. For me, the trends do not weigh nearly as heavy here as the other two aspects do.
Total Analysis: Purdue strikes me as too good to be true. After what I watched from Illinois on Friday, I would have expected Purdue to come out closer to Purdue -10. The trends are not a surprise. Brohm has generally sustained success against Lovie and Purdue has owned Illinois for the better part of the last decade. Even Darrell Hazell could win at Illinois. Purdue’s offensive line really impressed on Saturday. Iowa had lost a lot of talent on the defensive line, but the O-Line held their own all day against what is still a good Iowa defensive line. Jeff coming back to call plays with this offensive line should hopefully allow for some big plays down the field. Illinois is a transfer heavy program. Maybe it is just going to take their new guys some time to warm up? The Illini had momentum last year for the first time in what seemed like forever. Wisconsin came in against them seeking revenge after the upset last year. Will Purdue do the same? Purdue got a lot of help last week from turnovers. This significantly stimulated the under to hit and helped Purdue close for the win. Turnovers are, to an extent, lucky. It would be foolish to consistently assume a defense is going to secure turnovers week in and week out, but Purdue has to continue to win the turnover battle. AOC looked good, but both those interceptions were his fault. On the other hand, Illinois held the ball for so little time, it is hard to truly get a read on their offense. They ran the ball twenty five (25) times and threw twenty two (22) and did not have much success with either.
Prediction: 31-24 Boilers. The old saying is you should never feel comfortable taking a bet. I do not feel good about taking Illinois. This is very much a brain over heart play. The trends are not strong enough one way to dictate a play. The public and situational spots just go too much in favor of betting on the Illini. Illinois looked so bad, they have to be undervalued to some extent. Purdue got some national attention for the win over Iowa and I am worried about a little bit of a come down as well as Vegas taking advantage of the over value on the Boilers. Illinois’ offense is not good, but I expect a much better showing here as Iowa showed Purdue still has some room for improvement with the run defense. IIllinois is not going to be running and gunning by any stretch, so I still foresee the under hitting just barely. I plan on posting updates on line movement as well as public betting percentages on Twitter @PurdueGambling.
Plays: Illinois +7.5, Under 59. Gross, gross, gross, bets. Call this fan insurance if you wish. But the numbers are the numbers. Purdue rolls into Wisconsin 2-0.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-0, thank you Rutgers): West Virginia -2.5. West Virginia favored? At home? Against Kansas State? Sharps on Neers early.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently +3.5 against Maryland meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to lose by 3 or 4.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue +3.5 or Maryland -3.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to lose by less than 3.5 points or win. If one bets on the Maryland spread, Maryland would have to win outright by more than 3.5.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue loses to Maryland by 3, Maryland has won the game, but Purdue has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
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