This site pulls together dozens of computer margin predictions for CFB games.
You see some summary stats across all predictions, then if you scroll down, they have the detail for each computer. There are 42 of them this week. At the far right, you see they show a probability that the home team covers. Those probabilities range from .37 to .63. And, if you look at the Prediction Avg and Prediction Mean columns, you can see a lot of variation between those and some of the lines.
I threw the details into a spreadsheet and did a small twist on the data to see which games have the most extreme leanings toward one side or another in terms of the percentage of computers predicting a cover. It's actually kind of surprising (to me, anyway) that only 20 of this week's 61 FBS games sit between 40% and 60% picking the home team to cover. Granted, we're still early in the season.
All that said, here are your top picks according to this conglomeration. Point spreads shown are current ones at BetMGM:
Home Favorites
Boise State (-5) vs. Nevada (93% of computers predicting)
Michigan State (-11) vs. Western Kentucky (91%)
Florida Atlantic (-10.5) vs. Florida International (86%)
Purdue (-2.5) vs. Minnesota (86%)
Home Underdogs
UMass (+27) vs. Toledo (86%)
Rutgers (+15.5) vs. Ohio State (86%)
Tulane (+3) vs. East Carolina (81%)
Road Favorites
Texas (-4) at TCU (74%)
Iowa (-3.5) at Maryland (69%)
Memphis (-11) at Temple (64%)
USC (-7.5%) at Colorado (64%)
Road Underdog
Syracuse (+5.5) at Florida State (95%)
Michigan (+2) at Wisconsin (86%)
Louisiana-Monroe (+34.5) at Coastal Carolina (83%)
One major caveat here is that of the 49 computers that have been tracked so far this season, only 4 of them have exceeded the 52.4% ATS needed to break even on point spread bets, and the best is just 54.3%. By the way, that guy has Purdue by 12 this week
College Football Prediction Tracker
www.thepredictiontracker.com
You see some summary stats across all predictions, then if you scroll down, they have the detail for each computer. There are 42 of them this week. At the far right, you see they show a probability that the home team covers. Those probabilities range from .37 to .63. And, if you look at the Prediction Avg and Prediction Mean columns, you can see a lot of variation between those and some of the lines.
I threw the details into a spreadsheet and did a small twist on the data to see which games have the most extreme leanings toward one side or another in terms of the percentage of computers predicting a cover. It's actually kind of surprising (to me, anyway) that only 20 of this week's 61 FBS games sit between 40% and 60% picking the home team to cover. Granted, we're still early in the season.
All that said, here are your top picks according to this conglomeration. Point spreads shown are current ones at BetMGM:
Home Favorites
Boise State (-5) vs. Nevada (93% of computers predicting)
Michigan State (-11) vs. Western Kentucky (91%)
Florida Atlantic (-10.5) vs. Florida International (86%)
Purdue (-2.5) vs. Minnesota (86%)
Home Underdogs
UMass (+27) vs. Toledo (86%)
Rutgers (+15.5) vs. Ohio State (86%)
Tulane (+3) vs. East Carolina (81%)
Road Favorites
Texas (-4) at TCU (74%)
Iowa (-3.5) at Maryland (69%)
Memphis (-11) at Temple (64%)
USC (-7.5%) at Colorado (64%)
Road Underdog
Syracuse (+5.5) at Florida State (95%)
Michigan (+2) at Wisconsin (86%)
Louisiana-Monroe (+34.5) at Coastal Carolina (83%)
One major caveat here is that of the 49 computers that have been tracked so far this season, only 4 of them have exceeded the 52.4% ATS needed to break even on point spread bets, and the best is just 54.3%. By the way, that guy has Purdue by 12 this week
