I'm bored at work during the night shift (where literally nothing is happening) so I'm running through the scenarios to help us decide who we should be rooting for the final week of the regular season.
Quick Run-Down:
- If the season ended now, we'd have the fifth seed, but that it is extremely fluid because:
- There is a four-way tie for third-place in terms of conference win/loss. The multi-team tie-breaking scenario is also really fluid, but in a two-way tie we only beat out Iowa.
- This four-team log-jam completely determines our seeding, along (and especially) with the Illinois game on Saturday.
- At this point Purdue can get anything from a three-seed to a six-seed.
- If Purdue does not get a second-round bye, it would be guaranteed a team seeded 11-14. These teams would be Rutgers, Penn State, and Nebraska for sure. Northwestern would likely be the 11th seed (who are playing well lately) but could be Minnesota or even Michigan if Northwestern wins at Iowa.
Michigan State's final game: @IU
Iowa's final game: Northwestern
Purdue's final game: Illinois
Ohio State's final game: Wisconsin
SCENARIOS WHERE WE BEAT ILLINOIS[/B]
At best, third seed. At worst, fifth seed.
To get the third seed:
- Michigan State loses, Ohio State loses
To get the fourth seed:
- Michigan State loses, Ohio State wins
- Michigan State wins, Ohio State loses
A better way of reading this: Either MSU or OSU loses. If both do we're the third seed.
To get the fifth seed:
- Michigan State wins, Ohio State wins
Making sense of it all: I'm going to go on a limb and say OSU loses to Wisconsin. In which case we'll be guaranteed the fourth seed and rooting for IU (*vomit*) for the third seed. Honestly, MSU losing to IU in Bloomington and OSU losing to Wisconsin is not completely out of the question, so beating Illinois very well could get us the three seed.
If Purdue is the third seed, the sixth seed (who is next in line if they win) would be Ohio State. If you're with me in the don't-want-to-play-D'Angelo-Russell camp, I don't like this. So maybe a four seed would be better? If Purdue is the fourth or fifth seed, our third-round opponent would be any of the other three that are currently tied.
SCENARIOS WHERE WE LOSE TO ILLINOIS[/B]
At best, fifth seed. At worst, sixth seed.
To get the fifth seed:
- Iowa loses
To get the sixth seed:
- Iowa wins
Purdue would play a 11-14 seed first in any scenario here, probably getting a meaningless BTT win. Purdue would then need to beat either a three-seed or four-seed which really could be any of the three times we're tied with right now. We'd have to win that game, then Wisconsin and/or Maryland to make the NCAA tourney IMO. BTFU on Saturday.
Order To Root For:
1. Indiana over Michigan State
2. Wisconsin over Ohio State
3. Northwestern over Iowa (though this would be a doomsday scenario for us anyway)
And of course, Purdue above all else.
This post was edited on 3/5 4:15 AM by amarcott
This post was edited on 3/5 6:22 PM by amarcott
Quick Run-Down:
- If the season ended now, we'd have the fifth seed, but that it is extremely fluid because:
- There is a four-way tie for third-place in terms of conference win/loss. The multi-team tie-breaking scenario is also really fluid, but in a two-way tie we only beat out Iowa.
- This four-team log-jam completely determines our seeding, along (and especially) with the Illinois game on Saturday.
- At this point Purdue can get anything from a three-seed to a six-seed.
- If Purdue does not get a second-round bye, it would be guaranteed a team seeded 11-14. These teams would be Rutgers, Penn State, and Nebraska for sure. Northwestern would likely be the 11th seed (who are playing well lately) but could be Minnesota or even Michigan if Northwestern wins at Iowa.
Michigan State's final game: @IU
Iowa's final game: Northwestern
Purdue's final game: Illinois
Ohio State's final game: Wisconsin
SCENARIOS WHERE WE BEAT ILLINOIS[/B]
At best, third seed. At worst, fifth seed.
To get the third seed:
- Michigan State loses, Ohio State loses
To get the fourth seed:
- Michigan State loses, Ohio State wins
- Michigan State wins, Ohio State loses
A better way of reading this: Either MSU or OSU loses. If both do we're the third seed.
To get the fifth seed:
- Michigan State wins, Ohio State wins
Making sense of it all: I'm going to go on a limb and say OSU loses to Wisconsin. In which case we'll be guaranteed the fourth seed and rooting for IU (*vomit*) for the third seed. Honestly, MSU losing to IU in Bloomington and OSU losing to Wisconsin is not completely out of the question, so beating Illinois very well could get us the three seed.
If Purdue is the third seed, the sixth seed (who is next in line if they win) would be Ohio State. If you're with me in the don't-want-to-play-D'Angelo-Russell camp, I don't like this. So maybe a four seed would be better? If Purdue is the fourth or fifth seed, our third-round opponent would be any of the other three that are currently tied.
SCENARIOS WHERE WE LOSE TO ILLINOIS[/B]
At best, fifth seed. At worst, sixth seed.
To get the fifth seed:
- Iowa loses
To get the sixth seed:
- Iowa wins
Purdue would play a 11-14 seed first in any scenario here, probably getting a meaningless BTT win. Purdue would then need to beat either a three-seed or four-seed which really could be any of the three times we're tied with right now. We'd have to win that game, then Wisconsin and/or Maryland to make the NCAA tourney IMO. BTFU on Saturday.
Order To Root For:
1. Indiana over Michigan State
2. Wisconsin over Ohio State
3. Northwestern over Iowa (though this would be a doomsday scenario for us anyway)
And of course, Purdue above all else.
This post was edited on 3/5 4:15 AM by amarcott
This post was edited on 3/5 6:22 PM by amarcott
