3 months ago today we lost to Minnesota at home, leading to Brohm getting ranked near the top of national Hot Seat lists. Purdue fans were mocking his "offensive genius" tag, lamenting how pathetic it is that we could be in Year 5 with a "below-average Big Ten QB" in AOC leading us, "walk-on starters" at QB and RB, and the consensus seemed to be that we would struggle to win 6 games and quality for a bowl. An extension for Brohm would have been unpopular at the time; most conversation about his contract was centered around calculating exactly how big his buyout would be after the season.
Fast forward to the present, and an extension for Brohm seems to be a foregone conclusion. The only questions being asked are: for how long, and how much?
The opinion of the majority has swayed violently in the last 90 days. Did what happened in those 90 days really teach us something about Brohm that we didn't know? Or were people's evaluations overly reactionary in the first half of the season and just as shortsighted today?
Brohm's first five seasons could be summed up as follows:
2017: 7-6 - Miracle coaching job that exceeded what anyone thought was possible. We went from being blown out most games to being competitive in nearly every game. Our decade-long tackling affliction was cured overnight. Only inconsistent quarterbacking play and lack of high-end playmakers at the skill positions held up back from an even better season.
2018: 6-7 - Similar to 2017, the staff maximized returns from our thin roster, we beat Ohio State badly, and even a horrific loss to Auburn couldn't dampen enthusiasm. Recruiting was trending at a level we hadn't seen since the early 2000s.
2019: 4-8 - Myriad injuries to key players left us playing the youngest roster in college football. We had a bad season in terms of W/L that most forgave, though some were grumbling about how Brohm was paid at a Top 10 level, despite a sub-.500 record. Recruiting continued to look good, and the future felt very bright.
2020: 2-4 - A promising start fizzled out after AOC's injury, and our defense looked lost under Diaco. Fan belief in Brohm the coach was eroding, perhaps unfairly as we were again very young and suffered key injuries on both sides of the ball. Of concern, our recruiting class fell off the Top 25-level we enjoyed the previous two seasons.
2021: 9-4 - Brohm had loud detractors all offseason, for a variety of reasons. His fiery demeanor suddenly turned austere, as he fed the media nothing but platitudinous crumbs in interviews. People were openly questioning his mental health and hunger. Recruiting was again trending downward, outside of Brady Allen and Joe Strickland. Then, despite our 3-1 start, it had become clear (to most) that Brohm had chosen the wrong starting QB for the 3rd time in five seasons. Theories were floated that Allen may decommit. After the loss to Minnesota, confidence in Brohm as a coach and recruiter were at all time lows.
Overlooked, AOC's 371 yards in heavy rain presaged what was to come. "Yes, he can move the ball, but he is a turnover machine, and he can't punch it into the end zone," was a popular refrain.
A nearly perfect performance against Iowa the next week opened some eyes, and AOC went on to finish the regular season with 19 TDs and 3 INTs after that Minnesota loss, converting former haters into cheerleaders championing him as a Heisman favorite in 2022. Any remaining doubts about whether he was partially a creation of David Bell were squashed when he threw for the 4th most yards in a single-game in Purdue history and put up 48 points in the upset over Tennessee without his top two wide receivers.
How does this heavily play into a discussion about Jeff Brohm's contract situation? If AOC did not exist, we likely would have finished this season with 4-5 wins, and Brohm would be sitting atop the hot seat rankings all offseason. There would be no talk of an extension.
With all of that context, what is a fair measure of Brohm's tenure so far and where he stands with an eye towards the future?
He walked into a truly sorry program in 2017, made it respectable right away (maybe 10% of hires could have done that), logged two of our best recruiting classes of the last 30 years in his 2nd and 3rd season (maybe 10% of hires could have done that), and led us to a 9-4 season 5 years later. It was an extremely challenging situation, and he has elevated us into the upper-mid echelon of the Big Ten off the back of those 2018-2019 recruiting classes and AOC. Maybe 10-15% of hires we could have made would have been as successful as he has been. And we are going into next year with a real possibility to win 8-10 games.
So why shouldn't we rush to mint him with an extension and raise? There are a few clear reasons:
1) AOC - Again, if AOC were not hiding in plain sight, Brohm's coaching career would be in serious trouble today.
2) Recruiting - The 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes helped sprinkle stardust throughout our offense (Bell, Wright) and defense (GK, Grant, Graham) and elevated our ceiling; per Rivals, we added 10 4-stars in those two classes. Since those classes, we have rarely beat out top teams for commits. Per Rivals, we added just three 4-stars in 2021-2022. This is a major red flag. As much as there was great hype and expectation around the 2019-2020 classes, there should now be louder concern around the dropoff since. If Brady Allen develops into a QB at the level of AOC, his supporting class will likely be weaker.
3) What do we have to gain? - Largely lost in the celebration of Brohm committing to an extension in 2018 was the fact that the contract he signed made it quite easy for him to move on in the future. We seem to have some competent leadership in the athletic department, but they took a major L when the extension was both 100% fully guaranteed and did not contain a more painful buyout if Brohm was hired away. Upon signing in 2019, Brohm would have owed $3.75 million to buyout his contract with Purdue and go somewhere else (less than he would have owed had he left throughout 2018!)- a sum that would represent neither a deterrent to another school signing him away or a lozenge to remedy the pain of seeing him hired away.
In contrast, PJ Fleck's new contract signed this year pays him less per year than Brohm, is only 65% guaranteed, and has a buyout that starts at $10 million if Fleck wants to go elsewhere. Minnesota's AD negotiated a better deal across the board.
________________________
Overall, Brohm performance since his hiring has been well above the mean considering where the program was when he took the job. But due to the falloff in recruiting and the context around our turnaround this season, the jury is still out on whether he can sustain 8+ win seasons (a requisite target when you're being paid like he is) beyond next season. He has the coaching chops, but can he reestablish the talent pipeline?
Given the precedent established by his last contract, extending him would likely not strengthen our position were another school to come in and try to hire him away. It would only increase our downside if the recruiting continued trending down in the future and we had to make a change. Shrewd businessmen don't commit an extra $10 million+ guaranteed money out of goodwill.
A better strategy would be to wait and see how he is able to capitalize on the new momentum in the program this summer. What type of recruiting results can he deliver now that he can market a winner, has proven he can develop top-100 talent into early draft picks, and has definitively proven he can implement his high-powered offense in the Big Ten? Rickie Collins is a very good start.
If he is able to put together a Top-25 recruiting class this summer, then we can confidently extend him after this coming season, assuming it ends in 7+ wins.
If he does not, and our next class ends up in the 35+ range again, then it may be wise to let him auction his services to the highest bidder, as another 7-year deal on improved terms would look likely to prove a painful and expensive mistake after the remaining talent from the 2019-2020 classes drains out of the program.
Fast forward to the present, and an extension for Brohm seems to be a foregone conclusion. The only questions being asked are: for how long, and how much?
The opinion of the majority has swayed violently in the last 90 days. Did what happened in those 90 days really teach us something about Brohm that we didn't know? Or were people's evaluations overly reactionary in the first half of the season and just as shortsighted today?
Brohm's first five seasons could be summed up as follows:
2017: 7-6 - Miracle coaching job that exceeded what anyone thought was possible. We went from being blown out most games to being competitive in nearly every game. Our decade-long tackling affliction was cured overnight. Only inconsistent quarterbacking play and lack of high-end playmakers at the skill positions held up back from an even better season.
2018: 6-7 - Similar to 2017, the staff maximized returns from our thin roster, we beat Ohio State badly, and even a horrific loss to Auburn couldn't dampen enthusiasm. Recruiting was trending at a level we hadn't seen since the early 2000s.
2019: 4-8 - Myriad injuries to key players left us playing the youngest roster in college football. We had a bad season in terms of W/L that most forgave, though some were grumbling about how Brohm was paid at a Top 10 level, despite a sub-.500 record. Recruiting continued to look good, and the future felt very bright.
2020: 2-4 - A promising start fizzled out after AOC's injury, and our defense looked lost under Diaco. Fan belief in Brohm the coach was eroding, perhaps unfairly as we were again very young and suffered key injuries on both sides of the ball. Of concern, our recruiting class fell off the Top 25-level we enjoyed the previous two seasons.
2021: 9-4 - Brohm had loud detractors all offseason, for a variety of reasons. His fiery demeanor suddenly turned austere, as he fed the media nothing but platitudinous crumbs in interviews. People were openly questioning his mental health and hunger. Recruiting was again trending downward, outside of Brady Allen and Joe Strickland. Then, despite our 3-1 start, it had become clear (to most) that Brohm had chosen the wrong starting QB for the 3rd time in five seasons. Theories were floated that Allen may decommit. After the loss to Minnesota, confidence in Brohm as a coach and recruiter were at all time lows.
Overlooked, AOC's 371 yards in heavy rain presaged what was to come. "Yes, he can move the ball, but he is a turnover machine, and he can't punch it into the end zone," was a popular refrain.
A nearly perfect performance against Iowa the next week opened some eyes, and AOC went on to finish the regular season with 19 TDs and 3 INTs after that Minnesota loss, converting former haters into cheerleaders championing him as a Heisman favorite in 2022. Any remaining doubts about whether he was partially a creation of David Bell were squashed when he threw for the 4th most yards in a single-game in Purdue history and put up 48 points in the upset over Tennessee without his top two wide receivers.
How does this heavily play into a discussion about Jeff Brohm's contract situation? If AOC did not exist, we likely would have finished this season with 4-5 wins, and Brohm would be sitting atop the hot seat rankings all offseason. There would be no talk of an extension.
With all of that context, what is a fair measure of Brohm's tenure so far and where he stands with an eye towards the future?
He walked into a truly sorry program in 2017, made it respectable right away (maybe 10% of hires could have done that), logged two of our best recruiting classes of the last 30 years in his 2nd and 3rd season (maybe 10% of hires could have done that), and led us to a 9-4 season 5 years later. It was an extremely challenging situation, and he has elevated us into the upper-mid echelon of the Big Ten off the back of those 2018-2019 recruiting classes and AOC. Maybe 10-15% of hires we could have made would have been as successful as he has been. And we are going into next year with a real possibility to win 8-10 games.
So why shouldn't we rush to mint him with an extension and raise? There are a few clear reasons:
1) AOC - Again, if AOC were not hiding in plain sight, Brohm's coaching career would be in serious trouble today.
2) Recruiting - The 2019 and 2020 recruiting classes helped sprinkle stardust throughout our offense (Bell, Wright) and defense (GK, Grant, Graham) and elevated our ceiling; per Rivals, we added 10 4-stars in those two classes. Since those classes, we have rarely beat out top teams for commits. Per Rivals, we added just three 4-stars in 2021-2022. This is a major red flag. As much as there was great hype and expectation around the 2019-2020 classes, there should now be louder concern around the dropoff since. If Brady Allen develops into a QB at the level of AOC, his supporting class will likely be weaker.
3) What do we have to gain? - Largely lost in the celebration of Brohm committing to an extension in 2018 was the fact that the contract he signed made it quite easy for him to move on in the future. We seem to have some competent leadership in the athletic department, but they took a major L when the extension was both 100% fully guaranteed and did not contain a more painful buyout if Brohm was hired away. Upon signing in 2019, Brohm would have owed $3.75 million to buyout his contract with Purdue and go somewhere else (less than he would have owed had he left throughout 2018!)- a sum that would represent neither a deterrent to another school signing him away or a lozenge to remedy the pain of seeing him hired away.
In contrast, PJ Fleck's new contract signed this year pays him less per year than Brohm, is only 65% guaranteed, and has a buyout that starts at $10 million if Fleck wants to go elsewhere. Minnesota's AD negotiated a better deal across the board.
________________________
Overall, Brohm performance since his hiring has been well above the mean considering where the program was when he took the job. But due to the falloff in recruiting and the context around our turnaround this season, the jury is still out on whether he can sustain 8+ win seasons (a requisite target when you're being paid like he is) beyond next season. He has the coaching chops, but can he reestablish the talent pipeline?
Given the precedent established by his last contract, extending him would likely not strengthen our position were another school to come in and try to hire him away. It would only increase our downside if the recruiting continued trending down in the future and we had to make a change. Shrewd businessmen don't commit an extra $10 million+ guaranteed money out of goodwill.
A better strategy would be to wait and see how he is able to capitalize on the new momentum in the program this summer. What type of recruiting results can he deliver now that he can market a winner, has proven he can develop top-100 talent into early draft picks, and has definitively proven he can implement his high-powered offense in the Big Ten? Rickie Collins is a very good start.
If he is able to put together a Top-25 recruiting class this summer, then we can confidently extend him after this coming season, assuming it ends in 7+ wins.
If he does not, and our next class ends up in the 35+ range again, then it may be wise to let him auction his services to the highest bidder, as another 7-year deal on improved terms would look likely to prove a painful and expensive mistake after the remaining talent from the 2019-2020 classes drains out of the program.
