I did a quick inquiry into Brees and NFL records. It is quite possible that Brees' NFL records will be generational such that they will last 20-30 years. This is not a perfect assessment, but it's a way to check who could be on track to break Brees' eventual NFL records.
My assumptions, projections, and conclusions:
1. My assumptions:
a. Every active QB on the NFL record list plays to age 41, and I averaged the last three years of passing yds, completions, and passing TDs. Of note, I did not include Aaron Rodgers' 2017 numbers from his injury year. I assumed that Tom Brady plays one more year.
b. Active QBs on the NFL record list are Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers.
2. QBs that surface in the projection as candidates to challenge the NFL records for passing yards, completions, and passing TDs at age 41:
a. Drew Brees (39): 80053 yds; 7078 completions; 510 passing TDs.
b. Matt Ryan (33): 79037 yds; 6622 completions; 468 passing TDs.
c. Aaron Rodgers (34): 68804 yds; 5729 completions; 565 passing TDs.
3. Some conclusions:
a. Brees will greatly extend the passing yards and completions NFL records (obviously). Brees will need to see more passing TDs than his last 3 years average, or, play longer than 41, to break Manning's passing TD record (539).
b. If Matt Ryan (age 33) stays on track and plays to age 41, he is projected to be close to Brees' passing yards and completions records.
c. If Aaron Rodgers (age 34) stays on track and plays to age 41, he will break Manning's or Brees' passing TD record. Rodgers' 2014-2016 TD pace was hot (36; cp. to Brees' average at 34).
d. Obviously, it is not likely that Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers continue at the same pace as the last three years, and injury free through age 41. The history with Drew Brees' numbers is that they have slightly declined over time.
I think that Drew will clearly be the NFL record-holder for passing yards and completions for years to come, and it is possible that he could hold the passing TD record as well.
My assumptions, projections, and conclusions:
1. My assumptions:
a. Every active QB on the NFL record list plays to age 41, and I averaged the last three years of passing yds, completions, and passing TDs. Of note, I did not include Aaron Rodgers' 2017 numbers from his injury year. I assumed that Tom Brady plays one more year.
b. Active QBs on the NFL record list are Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers, Matt Ryan, and Aaron Rodgers.
2. QBs that surface in the projection as candidates to challenge the NFL records for passing yards, completions, and passing TDs at age 41:
a. Drew Brees (39): 80053 yds; 7078 completions; 510 passing TDs.
b. Matt Ryan (33): 79037 yds; 6622 completions; 468 passing TDs.
c. Aaron Rodgers (34): 68804 yds; 5729 completions; 565 passing TDs.
3. Some conclusions:
a. Brees will greatly extend the passing yards and completions NFL records (obviously). Brees will need to see more passing TDs than his last 3 years average, or, play longer than 41, to break Manning's passing TD record (539).
b. If Matt Ryan (age 33) stays on track and plays to age 41, he is projected to be close to Brees' passing yards and completions records.
c. If Aaron Rodgers (age 34) stays on track and plays to age 41, he will break Manning's or Brees' passing TD record. Rodgers' 2014-2016 TD pace was hot (36; cp. to Brees' average at 34).
d. Obviously, it is not likely that Matt Ryan and Aaron Rodgers continue at the same pace as the last three years, and injury free through age 41. The history with Drew Brees' numbers is that they have slightly declined over time.
I think that Drew will clearly be the NFL record-holder for passing yards and completions for years to come, and it is possible that he could hold the passing TD record as well.
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