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Braden’s NBA aspirations

proudopete

proudopete

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Jan 26, 2010
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Does Braden aspire to go to the NBA early?

I know all college players want to make the NBA but, doesn’t it seem like Braden especially wants to leave early and go at the end of this season.

What are the odds? I don’t think he has a chance to be a lottery pick but if he stays on the trajectory that he is on now, I could see teams maybe wanting to use a second round pick on him. The question is, if Braden’s aspirations would cause him to bolt early as a second round pick?
 
proudopete said:
Does Braden aspire to go to the NBA early?

I know all college players want to make the NBA but, doesn’t it seem like Braden especially wants to leave early and go at the end of this season.

What are the odds? I don’t think he has a chance to be a lottery pick but if he stays on the trajectory that he is on now, I could see teams maybe wanting to use a second round pick on him. The question is, if Braden’s aspirations would cause him to bolt early as a second round pick?
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If you leave early, you really want it to be a first round guaranteed contract, because if it isn't then if you don't get picked up out of training camp you've actually probably thrown away some money compared to NIL.

So yeah ANY player should absolutely leave at any time if they are getting first round guarantees. Otherwise, you only leave if you aren't getting NIL and we all know he's getting NIL.

Do I think Braden can play in the NBA? Sure. TJ McConnell exists.

Do I think NBA teams will spend a first round pick on his this year? Highly unlikely. Only takes one though so if definitely put my name in if I were him, because of course you do that. Then if you are told first round, you leave, if not, you stay.
 
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Braden’s draft stock might not be any higher than it will be after this season. NIL $$ and maybe early portal signings for any perceived missing players for a 2026 final four run, would hopefully keep him in WL, but it might not be a given.
 
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DrEss said:
Braden’s draft stock might not be any higher than it will be after this season. NIL $$ and maybe early portal signings for any perceived missing players for a 2026 final four run, would hopefully keep him in WL, but it might not be a given.
Click to expand...
I mean he better hope it is or he's going to have a harder road
 
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proudopete said:
Does Braden aspire to go to the NBA early?

I know all college players want to make the NBA but, doesn’t it seem like Braden especially wants to leave early and go at the end of this season.

What are the odds? I don’t think he has a chance to be a lottery pick but if he stays on the trajectory that he is on now, I could see teams maybe wanting to use a second round pick on him. The question is, if Braden’s aspirations would cause him to bolt early as a second round pick?
Click to expand...
I guarantee you the Pacers are keeping a close eye on him. He would be a perfect fit for that offense.
 
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1.157Mil. Is the minimum salary in the NBA which is close to the top pay overseas excluding China. I don't recall how much he is said to be making but he is the top selling NIL player in D1. Carsen a guard deemed too small for the NBA is making over the NBA minimum while playing less than 1/2 the games. With much less stress and fatigue to his body. And no taxes to be paid. So, the gamble to go early isn't as much a gamble as it once was. I read on another board how much Braden could expect if he enters the portal which could exceed 5mil. that is more likely than a non-guaranteed NBA contract. If you're a coach hired to turn around a program Smith would guarantee success and 5Mil. of someone else's money would be well spent IMO. As a lifelong Purdue fan, it's in our DNA to expect something bad and only one thing could be worse than losing Braden which would be losing Paint. It's always something.
 
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oldboiler52 said:
1.157Mil. Is the minimum salary in the NBA which is close to the top pay overseas excluding China. I don't recall how much he is said to be making but he is the top selling NIL player in D1. Carsen a guard deemed too small for the NBA is making over the NBA minimum while playing less than 1/2 the games. With much less stress and fatigue to his body. And no taxes to be paid. So, the gamble to go early isn't as much a gamble as it once was. I read on another board how much Braden could expect if he enters the portal which could exceed 5mil. that is more likely than a non-guaranteed NBA contract. If you're a coach hired to turn around a program Smith would guarantee success and 5Mil. of someone else's money would be well spent IMO. As a lifelong Purdue fan, it's in our DNA to expect something bad and only one thing could be worse than losing Braden which would be losing Paint. It's always something.
Click to expand...
Excellent post showing the issue NIL can pose. I think Braden would definitly give a home town discount to Purdue but how much I have no idea. If he leaves for another school because they offered him 3 to 4 mil more than Purdue, I will have no ill will toward him at all to get his money.
But my fandom for any major college sports will be shot and I will not support or waste time on games that Purdue cannot financially compete in. And I am not sure how you even stop NIL. Its truly open market. If some crazy booster wants to overpay by 4 to 5 mil for market value, nothing can be done other than provide more incentives.
 
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I don't recall seeing a player develop their game to the extent Smith has. When he was a Sr in high school and Painter was recruiting him, I'd have bet my mortgage that he wouldn't play in the NBA. Hell, I'd have bet that he would barely start at Purdue. Hugely wrong on both accounts.
Smith has figured out his limitations and built his game around those. That step back fade away midrange is deadly and is what will allow him to get his shot off against bigger athletes in the NBA. Very impressed with what he's developed into.
 
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bonefish1 said:
I don't recall seeing a player develop their game to the extent Smith has. When he was a Sr in high school and Painter was recruiting him, I'd have bet my mortgage that he wouldn't play in the NBA. Hell, I'd have bet that he would barely start at Purdue. Hugely wrong on both accounts.
Smith has figured out his limitations and built his game around those. That step back fade away midrange is deadly and is what will allow him to get his shot off against bigger athletes in the NBA. Very impressed with what he's developed into.
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Well stated, Lenny.

That is a testament first and foremost to Braden Smith and all the work he has put in on and off the court.....also to his parents and his high school coach.

Naturally, can't leave out Matt Painter's role in recruiting him and guiding him through as a cornerstone of the program during his time as a Boilermaker. When he puts the finishing touch on figuring out the right timing/moments to truly take over when needed, Purdue will be that much more dangerous.

It's been great to watch the journey.......not over yet......and even better moments ahead - wouldn't bet against it, anyway.
 
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I think the only way he gets to a first round pick this year is to have a Carsen level tourney performance that goes along with a deep run to get as many eyeballs on him as possible. So Elite 8 minimum, stats something like 30/10/6 average would likely be the minimum to wow NBA talent scouts enough to push him to a 1st rounder.

Short of that I think he returns to Purdue. Yes there will be money trying to woo him to head to the portal, but we took pretty good care of Zach to keep him around and I think we can do the same for Braeden. (Edey was between $1-2 MM his senior year was the most common estimates I saw.)
 
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JRKinn said:
I think the only way he gets to a first round pick this year is to have a Carsen level tourney performance that goes along with a deep run to get as many eyeballs on him as possible. So Elite 8 minimum, stats something like 30/10/6 average would likely be the minimum to wow NBA talent scouts enough to push him to a 1st rounder.

Short of that I think he returns to Purdue. Yes there will be money trying to woo him to head to the portal, but we took pretty good care of Zach to keep him around and I think we can do the same for Braeden. (Edey was between $1-2 MM his senior year was the most common estimates I saw.)
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We couldn’t even pay Zach completely what he was worth cuz of his citizenship. But I am pretty sure will pay Braden what he’s worth. And fletch and TKR.
 
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I believe Braden will stay in college.

And in reply to the original post, not all college basketball players have dreams of or want to play in the NBA.

I can think of many who use their scholarship to actually get an education. Caleb Furst comes to mind.

I wonder what Gillis’ future plans are?
 
JRKinn said:
I think the only way he gets to a first round pick this year is to have a Carsen level tourney performance that goes along with a deep run to get as many eyeballs on him as possible. So Elite 8 minimum, stats something like 30/10/6 average would likely be the minimum to wow NBA talent scouts enough to push him to a 1st rounder.

Short of that I think he returns to Purdue. Yes there will be money trying to woo him to head to the portal, but we took pretty good care of Zach to keep him around and I think we can do the same for Braeden. (Edey was between $1-2 MM his senior year was the most common estimates I saw.)
Click to expand...
I don't watch much NBA but I would think that the rebounding numbers for him at the NBA level would be the list of their concern. I don't think he'll be asked to rebound at the next level. Too many 6'9-7'0 guys who do that well.
 
proudopete said:
Does Braden aspire to go to the NBA early?

I know all college players want to make the NBA but, doesn’t it seem like Braden especially wants to leave early and go at the end of this season.

What are the odds? I don’t think he has a chance to be a lottery pick but if he stays on the trajectory that he is on now, I could see teams maybe wanting to use a second round pick on him. The question is, if Braden’s aspirations would cause him to bolt early as a second round pick?
Click to expand...
If you are a jr and going to be a 2nd round pick (low $$) we wouldn't you stay and try to secure a place in the 1st round?
We have NO idea what he thinks about leaving. And if he can be a 1st rounder, you gotta go I think.
Bur if a super senior year puts you in the 1st round, well not much of a decision.
And zero doubt in my mind that he's a 1st NEXT year.
My concern is a team desperate for a distributor takes him this year. (1st}
 
Schmedly_Whiplash said:
If you are a jr and going to be a 2nd round pick (low $$) we wouldn't you stay and try to secure a place in the 1st round?
We have NO idea what he thinks about leaving. And if he can be a 1st rounder, you gotta go I think.
Bur if a super senior year puts you in the 1st round, well not much of a decision.
And zero doubt in my mind that he's a 1st NEXT year.
My concern is a team desperate for a distributor takes him this year. (1st}
Click to expand...
Zach set the standard for staying a late round pick to the lottery they have the same agent. Smith isn't listed in mock drafts much like IU's Balo last year it doesn't make financial sense for him to leave early. Balo's contract was 2X league minimum. TKR is basically the same story and will command huge NIL money the market loves 5th year guys of which he will be at or near the top available. The game has changed off the court. A real possibility we could lose both not only to the NBA but the portal. I wish them both all the best. And I personally wouldn't ask either to stay without maximizing their earnings. Purdue will keep both IMO but, it won't come cheap.
 
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BoilerNGold013 said:
Excellent post showing the issue NIL can pose. I think Braden would definitly give a home town discount to Purdue but how much I have no idea. If he leaves for another school because they offered him 3 to 4 mil more than Purdue, I will have no ill will toward him at all to get his money.
But my fandom for any major college sports will be shot and I will not support or waste time on games that Purdue cannot financially compete in. And I am not sure how you even stop NIL. Its truly open market. If some crazy booster wants to overpay by 4 to 5 mil for market value, nothing can be done other than provide more incentives.
Click to expand...
If Braden leaves prior to a national championship run I will have much ill will. And as much to Purdue for letting him (and a possible NC) melt away. No, Braden is a Boiler by the grace of God. And a Boiler he shall remain. At all costs IMO.
I would pay to see him stay. Anyone else?
 
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Schmedly_Whiplash said:
If Braden leaves prior to a national championship run I will have much ill will. And as much to Purdue for letting him (and a possible NC) melt away. No, Braden is a Boiler by the grace of God. And a Boiler he shall remain. At all costs IMO.
I would pay to see him stay. Anyone else?
Click to expand...
Yeah he is worth 5-6M, if that’s what he wants. And ya pay TKR and Loyer
 
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oldboiler52 said:
1.157Mil. Is the minimum salary in the NBA which is close to the top pay overseas excluding China. I don't recall how much he is said to be making but he is the top selling NIL player in D1. Carsen a guard deemed too small for the NBA is making over the NBA minimum while playing less than 1/2 the games. With much less stress and fatigue to his body. And no taxes to be paid. So, the gamble to go early isn't as much a gamble as it once was. I read on another board how much Braden could expect if he enters the portal which could exceed 5mil. that is more likely than a non-guaranteed NBA contract. If you're a coach hired to turn around a program Smith would guarantee success and 5Mil. of someone else's money would be well spent IMO. As a lifelong Purdue fan, it's in our DNA to expect something bad and only one thing could be worse than losing Braden which would be losing Paint. It's always something.
Click to expand...
Still has to pay taxes as a US Citizen.
 
Schmedly_Whiplash said:
If Braden leaves prior to a national championship run I will have much ill will. And as much to Purdue for letting him (and a possible NC) melt away. No, Braden is a Boiler by the grace of God. And a Boiler he shall remain. At all costs IMO.
I would pay to see him stay. Anyone else?
Click to expand...
I would never have any ill will toward a person trying to most capitalize on their talents if that is what they want out of life. As for having ill will toward Purdue, what does that accomplish? Send letters to the richest alum and be more apart of the NIL rather than having ill will. Let your anger drive for something better.
 
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I believe Purdue basketball players have been well compensated as compared to players on other teams. If Braden decided to stay one last year, I believe he would probably receive as much as he would as an nba second round pick.

A question I will ask. If Braden stays for one last year, rather than going to the NBA a year early, would his draft stock go down or go up?

Looking at the mock drafts, I can’t believe his stock would go down if he stays another year. So what are the negatives for staying? An injury? I can’t believe he would have a down year statistically. Purdue should have another 20+ win season next year. Purdue should be in the dance next year. His NIL money should equal his potential salary.

The only benefit I see in turning pro early is if a team offered him a guaranteed multi year contract much like the one that IU player received.

So what is the downside of Braden returning for another year? Personally, I see none!
 
Braden and TKR leave for more money elsewhere, doesn’t that make Purdue a development program? I wouldn’t like that, and I don’t think we are.
 
To me, there has got to be a value in sticking around, graduating, and finishing your career at Purdue. Is it worth the extra $1 million Smith and TKR might make in the portal? I don't know. But there is an inherent value (monetary and otherwise) in being a Boilermaker for life. I'll cut Mason some slack because 1) Coach Painter asked them to make a decision in April 2023 about playing for the team this year, and 2) Mason would have been in his 6th year here and already has a graduate degree. So, Mason is a Boilermaker for life.

But if Smith and/or TKR leave for the portal next year, do they come back for alumni games, camps, etc.? I'm not sure. But I do know, if they stick around, they will be (and maybe already are) legendary Boilermakers. Again, there is inherent value there, IMO.
 
BoilerNGold013 said:
I would never have any ill will toward a person trying to most capitalize on their talents if that is what they want out of life. As for having ill will toward Purdue, what does that accomplish? Send letters to the richest alum and be more apart of the NIL rather than having ill will. Let your anger drive for something better.
Click to expand...
I would be pissed and that's ok. ;)
To me ill will just means pissed off, not that I want any harm to come to the kid.
 
proudopete said:
Does Braden aspire to go to the NBA early?

I know all college players want to make the NBA but, doesn’t it seem like Braden especially wants to leave early and go at the end of this season.

What are the odds? I don’t think he has a chance to be a lottery pick but if he stays on the trajectory that he is on now, I could see teams maybe wanting to use a second round pick on him. The question is, if Braden’s aspirations would cause him to bolt early as a second round pick?
Click to expand...
I think he could be the next T Jass. Roll up in the cyber truck wearing nerd gear and then cross some playground hoopers over.
 
I believe after today, Braden will stay in college. Big Physical guards seem to give him issues.
 
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