Welcome to this week's "BOILING OVER," GoldandBlack.com's weekly Ultimate Ticket information-clearinghouse and analysis column meant for our subscribers and our subscribers only.
We appreciate everyone's cooperation in helping us keep what is sometimes delicate information confined to this message board.
We certainly don't want it to come to this, but if there are problems, subscriptions have and will be canceled over this.
We know there are a lot of blogs out there and a lot of you are on Twitter and other message boards, and we don't want to come off like Darth Vader here, but we would be doing all our subscribers a disservice if weren't proactive about protecting the value of their subscription. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.
Additionally, we address recruiting in-depth and often without filter in this feature and we do it behind a subscription-protected barrier for a reason, in hopes of avoiding situations where our reporting can impact the recruiting process, which can happen occasionally. So again, we appreciate everyone's cooperation very much.
OK, first off, a reminder about our rules here before we get into Caleb Swanigan stuff. We don't want to affect the recruiting process in any way, so this stuff has to stay here. This is for subscribers to this site only. This is an immediate-blacklist situation.
(Note up front: All this info is as of late yesterday morning.)
With that said
We hate doing percentages on recruits, but we'll break character for a moment and say that right now, we think this is a deal where it's 60 percent Cal, 35 percent Purdue, 5 percent Michigan State. But at this time tomorrow for all we know, it could be entirely different between those first two schools.
Bear with us here, because this is going to be long-winded and probably convoluted.
Per sources (obviously, because everything comes from somewhere), this is down to the Golden Bears and Boilermakers, there being a small chance that an unlikely set of circumstances unfolds and puts Michigan State back in the picture.
(Everything is above board here, before your imagination runs wild.)
The details on that latter part are not something we can elaborate on at this time as to not betray confidences but when all is said and done, we can if people are still interested, but the situation is this: Swanigan seems to prefer Cal as of this moment with this being a very fluid situation. The expected - but curiously not yet consummated - commitment of fellow McDonald's All-American Ivan Rabb is the biggest piece of that puzzle.
On an aside: No one seems to know why Rabb, considered a done deal for Cal for some time now, hasn't committed yet. If he's so eager to get other players to join him in Berkeley, he could have just turned the McDonald's festivities into a Cal infomercial. We'll see what happens on that front, but everyone believes he's headed to the Bears and it seems legit, not just artificial, floated "buzz" as sometimes happens.
The Roosevelt Barnes-Cuonzo Martin relationship is not a huge factor.
It was the reason Cal even got a visit in the first place considering the relatively little recruiting Cal did of Swanigan prior to this home stretch, but Barnes is not steering Swanigan to the West Coast. It would obviously make Cal a more palatable option than it would be otherwise, obviously, and Swanigan himself loves Martin. But no one other than Cal is trying to direct Swanigan to Cal.
Far from it.
Purdue's pitch to Swanigan and his inner circle has won over the latter portion of this equation, to the point where the Boilermakers have advocates on all sides of the five-star prospect working on their behalf.
Much has been made of the "business decision" theme of this recruitment and Purdue has laid out in great detail its plan for Swanigan - as it does with every recruit - more so than any other school, and that has resonated profoundly with Barnes and others around Swanigan.
They're sports-savvy people and naturally have the long run in mind here as well, and Purdue's basketball infrastructure right now is a favorable one for Swanigan to play his preferred position, the 4, and be surrounded by seemingly solid complementary personnel.
(If Cal gets Swanigan and Rabb, Rabb is also a 4, so )
It's not uncommon for Purdue to present the best "fit" for a recruit. That doesn't mean it always gets said recruit.
There might be a component to this where this is about Swanigan liking Cal, but also Purdue not being a no-brainer for him. At least as of right now. Again, there are a lot of pro-Purdue voices around him.
You'll recall many years ago a tweet from the then-freshman in which he suggested that if the Boilermakers were to offer, he'd commit. This was years before anyone would offer, Chicago State notwithstanding.
You'll also recall a time last spring when schools were throwing offers at Swanigan like tennis balls, yet Purdue - the school who'd recruited him for years like an offered player and recruited him longest and was the first school to set foot in a gym to see him - notably remained on the sideline.
Those around Swanigan have said that Boilermaker coaches explained that they preferred to lay out their whole spiel in person before extending an offer. There are exceptions when necessary, but this has been standard operating procedure for Purdue with recruits it holds a long-standing relationship with. Purdue wanted him to visit to get his offer. The visit was never made and Purdue wound up offering officially over the phone (we assume) last fall, after dozens of other schools already had. It wasn't until this year - when Swanigan visited for two games - that he came to West Lafayette as a recruit. Understand, too, that a year was cut from the recruiting process by Swanigan's reclassification.
Though it has been rationalized, we're not sure how the "late" offer went over with the player, maybe one of those situations where doing the best work and building the strongest relationship early works against a school. Recruiting is amazing, man. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
How much of a factor this remains, if any, we don't know. Swanigan has dismissed it publicly as an issue for him, but of course that's what he's going to say.
Couple things
• If Swanigan announces Saturday in Portland as he tweeted he would, we'd think that would be good news for Cal, barring an about-face in a short period of time here. If he waits, as Barnes suggested he might in yesterday's Mr. Basketball announcement in the Indianapolis Star, then that would seem like good news for Purdue (or theoretically someone else if the landscape changes again somehow.)
• If you see a pre-announcement announcement by Swanigan that it is down to two schools, that would mean Cal and Purdue and would be good news for both, obviously. Why are we pointing this out? Ask when this is all over.
• We do know there was scheduled to be an in-depth sit-down yesterday with Swanigan and some his closest mentors to pore over this stuff. From everything we have gathered and reported here, Purdue would be reflected very well in those conversations. (No, we have no idea how said discussion went, if it happened at all.)
We believe Matt Painter was supposed to talk to Swanigan yesterday also. We do not know if he did or not.
• A.J. Hammons' status has nothing to do with any of this. Nothing at all. If he comes back, though, it would give Swanigan even more assurance that he'd not play center at Purdue. Point guard is not an issue either.
• C.J. Walker's decommitment in a roundabout way has helped Purdue, believe it or not. A point guard leaving the mix because he didn't want to throw the ball inside can't hurt for the guys the ball is being thrown inside to. Again, funny how things work.
• If Rabb, for whatever reason, goes to Arizona, we can assume that would really hurt Cal. But if Rabb is such a big part of Swanigan's draw to Cal, one would think he wouldn't announce for Cal without knowing for damn certain that Rabb is going to Cal.
(Fellow McDonald's All-American Jaylen Brown is also in this mix, too, but it's a moot point. Cal is not getting Brown.)
That about covers it.
This is a complex situation and one that is very much subject to change. We don't know where he's going or when he's announcing. We do know that Purdue is very much alive here. But "alive" and "getting the kid" are two very different things.
Right now, we'd say Cal, but there are a lot of pro-Purdue forces in play here, time for them to make a difference and a lot of "business" sense in West Lafayette.
Note: For today, we're going to leave "BOILING OVER" at this and maybe come back with more stuff tomorrow. (staff)
Copyright, Boilers, Inc. 2015. All Rights Reserved. Reproducing or using editorial or graphical content, in whole or in part, without permission, is strictly prohibited. E-mail GoldandBlack.com/Boilers, Inc.
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https://purdue.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=892&CID=818514
We appreciate everyone's cooperation in helping us keep what is sometimes delicate information confined to this message board.
We certainly don't want it to come to this, but if there are problems, subscriptions have and will be canceled over this.
We know there are a lot of blogs out there and a lot of you are on Twitter and other message boards, and we don't want to come off like Darth Vader here, but we would be doing all our subscribers a disservice if weren't proactive about protecting the value of their subscription. Thanks in advance for your cooperation.
Additionally, we address recruiting in-depth and often without filter in this feature and we do it behind a subscription-protected barrier for a reason, in hopes of avoiding situations where our reporting can impact the recruiting process, which can happen occasionally. So again, we appreciate everyone's cooperation very much.
(Note up front: All this info is as of late yesterday morning.)
With that said
We hate doing percentages on recruits, but we'll break character for a moment and say that right now, we think this is a deal where it's 60 percent Cal, 35 percent Purdue, 5 percent Michigan State. But at this time tomorrow for all we know, it could be entirely different between those first two schools.
Bear with us here, because this is going to be long-winded and probably convoluted.
Per sources (obviously, because everything comes from somewhere), this is down to the Golden Bears and Boilermakers, there being a small chance that an unlikely set of circumstances unfolds and puts Michigan State back in the picture.
(Everything is above board here, before your imagination runs wild.)
The details on that latter part are not something we can elaborate on at this time as to not betray confidences but when all is said and done, we can if people are still interested, but the situation is this: Swanigan seems to prefer Cal as of this moment with this being a very fluid situation. The expected - but curiously not yet consummated - commitment of fellow McDonald's All-American Ivan Rabb is the biggest piece of that puzzle.
On an aside: No one seems to know why Rabb, considered a done deal for Cal for some time now, hasn't committed yet. If he's so eager to get other players to join him in Berkeley, he could have just turned the McDonald's festivities into a Cal infomercial. We'll see what happens on that front, but everyone believes he's headed to the Bears and it seems legit, not just artificial, floated "buzz" as sometimes happens.
The Roosevelt Barnes-Cuonzo Martin relationship is not a huge factor.
It was the reason Cal even got a visit in the first place considering the relatively little recruiting Cal did of Swanigan prior to this home stretch, but Barnes is not steering Swanigan to the West Coast. It would obviously make Cal a more palatable option than it would be otherwise, obviously, and Swanigan himself loves Martin. But no one other than Cal is trying to direct Swanigan to Cal.
Far from it.
Purdue's pitch to Swanigan and his inner circle has won over the latter portion of this equation, to the point where the Boilermakers have advocates on all sides of the five-star prospect working on their behalf.
Much has been made of the "business decision" theme of this recruitment and Purdue has laid out in great detail its plan for Swanigan - as it does with every recruit - more so than any other school, and that has resonated profoundly with Barnes and others around Swanigan.
They're sports-savvy people and naturally have the long run in mind here as well, and Purdue's basketball infrastructure right now is a favorable one for Swanigan to play his preferred position, the 4, and be surrounded by seemingly solid complementary personnel.
(If Cal gets Swanigan and Rabb, Rabb is also a 4, so )
It's not uncommon for Purdue to present the best "fit" for a recruit. That doesn't mean it always gets said recruit.
There might be a component to this where this is about Swanigan liking Cal, but also Purdue not being a no-brainer for him. At least as of right now. Again, there are a lot of pro-Purdue voices around him.
You'll recall many years ago a tweet from the then-freshman in which he suggested that if the Boilermakers were to offer, he'd commit. This was years before anyone would offer, Chicago State notwithstanding.
You'll also recall a time last spring when schools were throwing offers at Swanigan like tennis balls, yet Purdue - the school who'd recruited him for years like an offered player and recruited him longest and was the first school to set foot in a gym to see him - notably remained on the sideline.
Those around Swanigan have said that Boilermaker coaches explained that they preferred to lay out their whole spiel in person before extending an offer. There are exceptions when necessary, but this has been standard operating procedure for Purdue with recruits it holds a long-standing relationship with. Purdue wanted him to visit to get his offer. The visit was never made and Purdue wound up offering officially over the phone (we assume) last fall, after dozens of other schools already had. It wasn't until this year - when Swanigan visited for two games - that he came to West Lafayette as a recruit. Understand, too, that a year was cut from the recruiting process by Swanigan's reclassification.
Though it has been rationalized, we're not sure how the "late" offer went over with the player, maybe one of those situations where doing the best work and building the strongest relationship early works against a school. Recruiting is amazing, man. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
How much of a factor this remains, if any, we don't know. Swanigan has dismissed it publicly as an issue for him, but of course that's what he's going to say.
Couple things
• If Swanigan announces Saturday in Portland as he tweeted he would, we'd think that would be good news for Cal, barring an about-face in a short period of time here. If he waits, as Barnes suggested he might in yesterday's Mr. Basketball announcement in the Indianapolis Star, then that would seem like good news for Purdue (or theoretically someone else if the landscape changes again somehow.)
• If you see a pre-announcement announcement by Swanigan that it is down to two schools, that would mean Cal and Purdue and would be good news for both, obviously. Why are we pointing this out? Ask when this is all over.
• We do know there was scheduled to be an in-depth sit-down yesterday with Swanigan and some his closest mentors to pore over this stuff. From everything we have gathered and reported here, Purdue would be reflected very well in those conversations. (No, we have no idea how said discussion went, if it happened at all.)
We believe Matt Painter was supposed to talk to Swanigan yesterday also. We do not know if he did or not.
• A.J. Hammons' status has nothing to do with any of this. Nothing at all. If he comes back, though, it would give Swanigan even more assurance that he'd not play center at Purdue. Point guard is not an issue either.
• C.J. Walker's decommitment in a roundabout way has helped Purdue, believe it or not. A point guard leaving the mix because he didn't want to throw the ball inside can't hurt for the guys the ball is being thrown inside to. Again, funny how things work.
• If Rabb, for whatever reason, goes to Arizona, we can assume that would really hurt Cal. But if Rabb is such a big part of Swanigan's draw to Cal, one would think he wouldn't announce for Cal without knowing for damn certain that Rabb is going to Cal.
(Fellow McDonald's All-American Jaylen Brown is also in this mix, too, but it's a moot point. Cal is not getting Brown.)
That about covers it.
This is a complex situation and one that is very much subject to change. We don't know where he's going or when he's announcing. We do know that Purdue is very much alive here. But "alive" and "getting the kid" are two very different things.
Right now, we'd say Cal, but there are a lot of pro-Purdue forces in play here, time for them to make a difference and a lot of "business" sense in West Lafayette.
Note: For today, we're going to leave "BOILING OVER" at this and maybe come back with more stuff tomorrow. (staff)
Copyright, Boilers, Inc. 2015. All Rights Reserved. Reproducing or using editorial or graphical content, in whole or in part, without permission, is strictly prohibited. E-mail GoldandBlack.com/Boilers, Inc.
https://purdue.rivals.com/content.asp?SID=892&CID=818514
