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Our loose philosophy on this stuff has always been to pass no judgment or yell too loudly about what a young person should ever do with his life with such a big decision at hand, but what we'll do here is just examine some dynamics at play and maybe offer an opinion or two about what might happen.
• Swanigan's message since this draft process has began has been, "If I can get drafted, I'm going to go get drafted," and every indication public and private from him or his camp since then has suggested an NBA jump to very much be his plan, if not sole focus.
Now, understand, too, that sometimes there's a game to be played in terms of buzz-generation, leverage, foundation-building for down the line or whatever else, so sometimes things aren't always what they appear, but we do have every reason to believe that if Swanigan knows - or even thinks - he's getting drafted in a palatable position, he's gone.
Don't know what the definition of "palatable" would be here. This always comes down to what a player is willing to accept.
His answer to that question has been pretty nebulous: He just wants to be in position to help a team, he says. He does not want to go to the D-League and we assume that preference would apply to overseas, as well.
• Swanigan's continued message since his arrival at Purdue on the NBA has been that the NBA will let him know when it's time to go.
That in mind, Jeff Goodman of ESPN just wrote a report polling what we have to assume to be a meaningful number of front-office types and "every single NBA exec" said Swanigan should return to school to give himself a chance for "guaranteed money" next season, and that's code for late first-round or a contract as a second-rounder. (All first-round contracts are guaranteed.)
Be very careful believing what you read in advance of drafts in terms of what people are saying and why they're saying it. It is a big shell game in which franchises have some interest in deceit.
So it is always possible that's what's written in advance of drafts - "Eli Apple can't cook" - flies in the face of what's real. So Swanigan and others like him might be hearing a rosier picture behind closed doors.
With that in mind, here's an interesting read from Jonathan Givony on the diminishing interest among teams to provide anyone any feedback of any meaning, for fear it will be leveraged against them. So the possibility exists that all these players are largely in the dark.
Anyone can tell a player they're taking him, but I was in the room years ago with a player and his family when the team that said it was drafting that player took somebody else instead. It's no fun. And opinions in late May could totally reverse themselves - for better and worse - come June.
So stock is a moving target and the players who would be forsaking the remainder of their college careers have to make that call based on their stock as of this week, with there being reason to believe their information to not necessarily be air-tight. Should they stay in the draft, they have opportunities remaining to help their stock. Or hurt their stock.
Swanigan's stock right now based on public opinion would seem to be second round to undrafted and some analysts have been particularly outspoken about his need to return to school.
Again, sometimes public info isn't truly a reflection of reality, but when there's a consensus, it has to be considered credible, you'd think.
• Swanigan and Co. may consider as well what he is now relative to what he will be a year from now or longer down the line. He has already transformed his body, likely peaked from a growth perspective and may be poised for only incremental skill and athleticism developments from here on out.
Make no mistake: He can absolutely improve a lot of things, but his biggest jumps have probably already been made, when you look at how advanced his game has always been, how powerful he's always been and the complexion of his body.
He can keep trimming down, but how much more can he can go without compromising what's made him what he is? It would seem like 247 pounds with 12.55-percent body are good numbers for a kid who's known as "Biggie" for more reasons than one.
He can keep getting more athletic, but he's never going to be DeAndre Jordan, it's fair to say. He can keep getting quicker and more agile, but he's never going to be Willie Cauley-Stein, it's fair to say.
He can keep working on his shooting, but no one has shot more jumpers on his own time in the past year than this guy. Seriously, we've seen it.
And would his remaining upside best be reached in college or in a full-time basketball environment with access to the best resources known to man, without class or time limitations to worry about? This is something that they do have on their mind, at least to some extent.
Of course, you have to get on a roster to take advantage of that stuff, preferably with a long-term investment, so that's Step 1.
• What's left for him at Purdue? Well, obviously a lot. Swanigan clearly is poised for an outstanding season should be return. He would play all the minutes he can handle between the 4 and 5, get more favorable matchups because of that flexibility at both ends of the floor, have more rebounds to snatch without A.J. Hammons picking them off the higher branches, and he'll benefit from comfort now that the hard part of his move to the 4 is over.
You're reasonably looking at a potential, if not likely, 15-point, 10-board, four-assist player with significantly fewer turnovers and significantly higher shooting percentages.
When determining the best ways to impress the NBA, where would dominating in college fall on that list? Jared Sullinger - the best comp we can think of at the NBA level, though not a perfect one - could have left after a dominant freshman season. He stayed, dominated again, then left as a National Player-of-the-Year candidate. There has to be some value in that.
• Opportunity. Swanigan believes in himself and has every reason to, more so than damn near anyone. He's beaten homelessness and obesity, things that not only would have ruined most any other player's basketball future, but their future, period, and he's accomplished pretty much every major goal he's laid out for himself. He has been an absolutely amazing story and his determination has been a big part of that. People have helped him, but he has helped himself to simply epic lengths.
He's done it with a certain edge about him where if he's not believed in, if he's told he can't do something, that sort of thing might make him more likely to try to than not.
This negative energy about his draft position might - might - set his jaw even more. That's sort of what he's always been.
He is determined and he is stubborn, for better and worse. But he is also very intelligent, so the analytical part of Swanigan and the sort of visceral, emotional being that he is make for an interesting dichotomy and an unpredictable one in cases like this.
(Triple-word score for dichotomy and visceral, by the way.)
• We have a pretty good idea about Swanigan's feelings on the NBA, but what about the NBA's feelings on him? Obviously that was covered earlier, but we did write when this whole process began that this system afforded much greater flexibility for the prospects but also a great chance for franchises to gain baseline evaluations.
Example: When Vincent Edwards works out for the Utah Jazz this weekend, do you think they're looking at him as a guy they might want to draft in a month or a guy they might want to draft in a year or two? It's probably more the latter. Bring in a kid now, gain a baseline evaluation to guide your future evaluations and track their progress that way. It's a hell of a deal for the teams and a good way for them to sift through the field much earlier than they might otherwise.
How much of the NBA's peek into Swanigan is short-term-minded and how much is long-term-minded?
Don't know that.
• Does Swanigan want to be in college in any longer?
Not sure it's as much about not wanting to be in college as much as it wanting to be in the NBA.
Swanigan has always carried himself like a professional and sometimes guys come to college with plans that are difficult to move off of. He did skip over a year of high school, remember, and that was at least in part motivated by a desire to get to the pros faster, while his choice of Purdue for college was obviously driven largely by his desire to play the position that he felt would help his NBA chances most.
And the faster a player gets to the NBA, the faster he gets out of the capped earnings of his three-year rookie contract and starts making serious scratch, if he's good enough to cash in at that time.
Those are all hypotheticals at this point.
Right now, Swanigan has to get drafted or otherwise signed, preferably into a guaranteed-deal situation, and earn his place in the league. At that level, the hard part isn't over, it's just beginning.
What will Swanigan do?
At the start of this, we had solid indications of this being "procedural" and a "no reason not to" situation, then the whole tone of it changed. Maybe the reality didn't change, just the message.
Swanigan and his team are intelligent people, emotional but also pragmatic when need be.
Everything we are told and every signal given off has suggested Swanigan is leaving, almost no matter what.
But there is a lot of business to be kept in mind here and there might be some smokescreen considerations involved here. Keep in mind the way recruiting went down here, where everyone was led to believe one thing before something else happened. Nothing nefarious, just drama.
Now, make no mistake, if Swanigan was a clear guaranteed-contract guy, he is gone. This not an attachment situation with Purdue or any college. That's just how this whole thing has been approached. There are no heartstrings being tugged. This is all business, always has been.
But business is about practical decisions and one would have to think the practicalities of this situation win out. So we'd think that Swanigan would come back to Purdue, probably for one more season.
• To the best of our knowledge, money is no issue here. Swanigan has access to uncommon resources. He has an altitude chamber, for crying out loud. So in terms of urgency to start getting paid, a frequent factor in these decisions, it would seem to apply here.
Also, we're not buying the "Swanigan would rather play in the D-League than at Purdue" story here. Not questioning that someone said that, just wondering if perhaps it was a bit overstated for effect. Much of what we've been told here has been in bold terms. We'll also remind you of the misinformation blitz that surrounded the recruitment.
But to suggest that this guy who's existed most of his basketball career on the biggest stages would rather play in Reno against the Fort Wayne Mad Ants than against national champion Villanova on national TV just does not stand to any measure of reason if you know the player involved.
As a D-League player, Swanigan would make no more than $25,000 per year, potential modest bonuses notwithstanding. And a player who controls his diet the way he'd control a nuclear arsenal has to understand that per-diem truck-stop dinners are probably not ideal for him.
Food is a big deal to Swanigan. He understands where he came from and understands the critical importance of taking care of his body. The Michigan State "personal chef demand" thing was beyond overstated, but he and Roosevelt Barnes did put a great emphasis on dietary and nutritional resources and his access to the right foods and such. You're just not going to get anything close to that in the D-League.
Also, of the D-League, this is a pretty proud individual who thinks very highly of his abilities and has every reason to view himself as better than that.
UPDATE: Swanigan said the following to the Phoenix newspaper: “It’s just, ‘Are you going to take me or not?’ That’s the biggest thing. If not, go back to school, work on my game and get better. It won’t bother me if I have to go back to school and it won’t bother me if I’m the 60th pick.” (BN)
He has used the term "when this process is over" in a way that makes it sound like he's in it for the experience, as he should be, and I'm not sure he'd have requested to be referred to by his full name from here on out around Purdue if he, you know, didn't plan on being at Purdue.
Edwards has worked out for the Celtics and Grizzlies and will be seen by the Jazz Sunday. (BN)
Hasn't happened yet, but Mason said, "I'll commit as soon as I step on campus."
We're assuming his coach's mandate was probably to visit first.
Nothing scheduled yet. (BN)
We have been told from the Florida end that they might still have cap space to free up and Maryland might jump in here, but as of now Purdue is the only school he has visited and it would probably like an answer here sooner rather than later.
We'll see if it gets one, but nothing is imminent from what we understand. (BN)
In the plans for the nearly 22,000-square-foot space, director of sports performance Duane Carlisle will have a room off his office that's specifically for meeting recruits and their parents. There is no such space in the current setup at Mollenkopf, meaning when recruits come to campus and visit the weight room and Carlisle, who is around players more than the coaches themselves, parents and kids squeeze into Carlisle's small office or just stand in the middle of the weight room to chat.
"When we have our junior days, it’s a pretty big group. It’s not the best setup," Carlisle said of the current situation. "(The new spot) is going to be a nice room, with a table and we'll be able to give a video presentation of our performance program. That’s a big deal.
"We’ll be able to put on a really good show for them when they come in." (SC)
But our intel also suggests the first round of formal interviews will begin in the coming weeks, but haven’t happened yet.
We still would think mid- to late July would be a good estimate for a hire to be made. (staff)
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