One wonders if there's not some value to using the BTT to give Braden some rest and work in Cox for backup PG minutes and give Heide and Colvin some extended run to build up some confidence for the tournament.
Big Ten Tournament Seeding
- Thread starter Travis Miller
- Start date
Purdue actually seems to have landed a pretty favorable BTT pathway. We need to play some and get right and keep the foot on the gas against anyone we face!Welp - in the Corn Battle Royale, Iowa prevails over Nebraska (83-68) and knocks them out of the BTT field. Cornhuskers with a meltdown down the stretch, dropped six of seven and torpedoed any NCAA tournament hopes.
Looks like Purdue will get the winner of #14 (USC) v. #11 (Rutgers/Minnesota - the winner of today's regular season finale, currently tied at 50 with 6 minutes to go).
Update/Edit - Rutgers wins in OT over Minnesota, so the field/seeds are set. Oregon game with Washington won't affect seeding.
Courtesy of bball.notnothing.net
Purdue will make it to sunday and fight valiently for a half vs state before being out toughed and losing by double digits
Not sure state will get there and I don’t trust state in the actual NCAAT. But then again, I wouldn’t be shocked if no big ten teams make the second weekend. I don’t trust anyone in our conf 😂
I like our chances against either Rutgers or USC. I think we catch Michigan and see a replay of what happened in Mackey. I think if we make it to Saturday, that will be a rock fight
So last year against NW when the ball was centered above the arc Purdue pulled players away from their man where the space they were covering was an attempt to decrease Boo Buie's effectiveness of getting downhill while trying to defend his perimeter shot as well. That only took place against NW if I recall correctly. This year another different adjustment to man a few games ago took place to attempt to contain the dribble without being hurt by the three ball IMO. The adjustment also allowed a bit more gambling by a player (generally Braden) to try to get a turnover. We don't see only a double on the 5 man by Purdues 4, but now see more digs and scrapes than Purdue generally did by perimeter players...many times Braden. We also see that by loading up towards the ball that 1 Purdue player generally has two weakside players he generally must defend...close enough to close out on a skip pass on one of them with enough that another pass to the other opponent is covered in time by another Purdue player in rotation. Some teams it has worked well and teams like Illinois it wasn't as effective since the weakside players were ball watching without having their head on a swivel as Illinois just shot 6'8" riley though the lane in front of the weakside players ball watching resulting in some very good looks and baskets by Riley off a pass into the lane.
As we all know, Purdue has little to no rim protection and the ability to compensate a bit is limited due to depth inside to gamble and teams know that. The three main contributors have to be on the court as we all know. Any team that has an inside and outside threat are a problem where Purdue tries to compensate for one area and loses another IMO. Offense's that are not spread Purdue I think is generally fine. Offenses that are spread make it harder to contain the dribble due to perimeter threat. Purdue can gamble a lot of different ways to try to take something away, but Purdue knows it now is more vulnerable in other areas. I'm unsure Purdue's D can be fixed this year and only hope the gambles it takes work out which it has if you consider the games Purdue could have won and didn't. That said I share the belief with others that several games in the BTT will be tough without more rest for players than what has taken place the previous games.
You must not have watched MSU play much the last 2-3 weeks. They are blasting opposing teams. Their guards are outstanding, get tons of scoring inside, play very good D. Best chance for a Big 10 team to make the final 4. If they win the BTT, a 1 seed over Fla simply by being regular season and BTT champs.
I have seen them play. And it’s against the big ten. That’s why I don’t trust them.
What’s their best win? It was North Carolina for quite some time and uhhh they aren’t good.
MSU is built to win the big ten but not really for March. And wouldn’t say they’re the best chance for a F4 and I guess they could be a 1 seed….but I’d say Florida and Bama are better than them.
But we will see
Their best win isn't close to UNC. Wins at Illinois, Michigan and Maryland are much better wins. You are using your current angst to cloud your opinion of the B1G, which is still considered the 2nd best conference this year.
Meant non conf big ten for the best win.
Michigan are frauds. They have a negative point differential and somehow finished second in the league.
Wisconsin and Oregon are decent, could see them going to second weekend.
UCLA has the defense but at times are very stagnant on offense.
Purdue and Illinois have talent to get to E8,
but which team will show up?
Maryland has a chance for the second weekend but their lack of bench play may come to bite them.
IU has the talent but they can’t shoot and still have woody as coach.
🤷♂
Quick, now do every conference not named the SEC. Hell, do the SEC. We've reached the point where nearly everyone has question marks and no one is invincible. That's what makes the NCAAT the greatest sporting event in the world.
After we get one win under our belt, sure. But we can't risk losing to either USC or Rutgers. That would certainly drop us to a 5-seed, and we need to avoid that at all costs. Talk about a death knell for our post season hopes...
I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. I don't see much of a difference between a 4 and a 5. Sure you get a 13 instead of a 12, and 12s win more than 13s. Sure. But there are going to be very good teams on both seed-lines this year, so I don't think it matters much. Drake, UC San Diego, Lipscomb, Liberty, Yale, McNeese. Teams like that could be either one.
I can understand the lack of trust and can follow this from the likely match-ups after the first round - similar tale for Purdue.
Call me crazy, but if we're booking best chances - I'd say it's one of Wisconsin or UCLA (sleeper Illinois if they can get off the 8/9 line) based upon their ability to deal with certain match-ups better and multiple options with iso/dribble drive.
That said - any of them could get upset early. Not saying Michigan State couldn't get that far, but chances are they have a game like they did in Los Angeles this year where they dropped both games to some teams that could handle what they were trying to dish out and fed it back to them. A lot of the Big Ten teams couldn't do that or weren't disciplined enough to do it.
Not discounting Izzo's ability, so I wouldn't be surprised either way.
IF Purdue got to the second weekend, that would be a successful tournament/season to me in a lot of ways based upon all that's transpired over the course. Doesn't mean it eliminates disappointment, those are two distinct measures.
I will see myself to the door....good day.
Might have meant non-conf, ZZ, but agree with you that those are the most impressive/best wins for MSU. Still have them on the #2-line.
# 4 seed - 5% (2 champs) of champs have come from this line (since 64 team field came in)
#5 seed - 0% of champs
I don't have data on the 1st game only but would guess #4 seed is better by more than 5% over #5 seed.
Not saying this is "death knell" as previous poster, but it is something.
The dreaded 5/12 matchup, Dry - some years it hasn't been as prominent. The 12-seeds are often pretty darn good mid-majors.
Probably don't have to remind folks of the 2016 tourney where Purdue fell in that spot - amidst torrential waves of Boilerepherine.
I was basing my opinion on how poorly the 5-seed has historically fared against the 12-seed. In fact (at least on the surface) it looks like the expected win percentage in the first two rounds is on par with a 6-seed. Chance for early tournament success drops off significantly below a 4-seed. You see something differently? I mean, I'm not a statistician so I could be totally off.
History of records by seed (per 3/19/2024)
Yeah, I have a propensity to bounce wildly between British reserve and American hyperbole. Can't help myself.
But "death knell" sounds cool, no? Que up AC/DC's Hells Bells...
You're definitely correct in the stats. But I guess I don't look at it from the standpoint of this next game making all the difference. If we're a 5-seed it won't be purely because of this next game and if we lose to a 12 then we just weren't very good. We can just as easily lose as a 4 because of the talent at the 12-13 seeds. It's all about matchups and playing well.
You will want to avoid the 11/12 lines. Likely where teams like VCU/UC San Diego, Gonzaga, Drake will be sitting. Though Drake could be a 10.
I guess to rephrase, there's nothing magical about being less likely to win as a 5 vs a 4. It's because you weren't good enough in the first place.
