I’m in a pretty exclusive minority group here, but the Big Ten East being far superior to the West is a myth that needs to be debunked and put to bed. And I say that while also holding the belief that Purdue has the best deal in the Big Ten because of the protected IU crossover. So, understand that my argument is somewhat biased to protect Purdue.
The Claim: The Big Ten East has won all 8 Big Ten titles since the divisions were created. Therefore, the Big Ten East is clearly far superior. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, MSU? Whoa. And the West is Wisconsin, Iowa, and ... Northwestern? Yuck.
The Counterargument: Ohio State is dominant and the rest of the East is riding the coattails and getting credit far beyond what they deserve. One game (The Big Ten Championship Game), especially one whose participants are often decided by crossover opponents, does not define a season or division parity.
Supporting Evidence: Without Ohio State, the Big Ten West holds a 68-62 crossover record. Ohio State is 23-2 in crossover games (and therefore, overall, the East leads 85-70). The other dominant teams?
Michigan State is 10-11 in regular-season crossover games, including 1-3 against Wisconsin and Iowa (only 4 games against the statistically best two teams in the division, combined). In fact, the only teams MSU has a winning crossover record against are Purdue (3-1, including 2-0 in the Hazell years), and Minnesota (1-0). MSU is 0-2 against Illinois (!!), 3-3 against Northwestern, and 2-2 against Nebraska (including a loss to 6-7 Nebraska in MSU's Big Ten Championship and Playoff Berth season). In other words, since divisions, MSU has typically played Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Purdue - 6 of the 9 conference games - against what has been over that time span pretty much the 5 of the bottom 6 programs, and Northwestern, who is at the top or bottom from year-to-year. MSU? They've constantly been receiving credit where credit is NOT due. More on this later.
Penn State is 14-8 against the West, including 2-4 in the last two years, including losses to Illinois (at home) and Nebraska. They have a losing record against the third-best West team since divisions were created, with a 1-2 against Northwestern. They've also lost to the second-best West team, Iowa, two in a row.
Michigan is 16-5, by far the second-best in the East against the West. Yet, they are 4-4 in regular-season games against Wisconsin and Iowa.
Additional Arguments: The East gets 3 cakewalk wins every year with Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland. That's 3 games where they don't have to show their playbook, often can play a lot of guys and avoid injuries. After that, someone has to win the Michigan-Penn State game or MSU-Michigan, etc. Whichever that someone is, that's 4 division wins already. Whatever happens after that, pundits and voters ignore because it's a result against Ohio State or Michigan or MSU or PSU, and a "really good team has to lose." Then, if you happen to get Illinois (unless you're Michigan State) and Nebraska (again, unless you're Michigan State), that's probably two more relatively easy wins.
The West doesn't have the perennial basement dwellers that the East does. Since the East and West, Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland have combined for a total of 2 conference records over .500, and that includes one during the CoVid year, which I personally do not count (no practice, teams and players opting out, coaches missing games, randomly start in October? Cmon!). Those 3 are an incredible 53-150 in conference play, and remember, they all play each other, so 24 of the 53 wins are against each other. Those 3 have finished as the bottom 3 in that division 4 of the 8 years (4 of 7 without CoVid year) and they've been 3 of the bottom 4 in the division 6 of the 8 years (6 of 7 without covid year. Maryland in 2014 is the outlier at 4-4). The 3 have combined for 5 conference wins or fewer in a season 3 times and 7 or fewer conference wins 6 of the 7 non Covid seasons - again that's with 3 guaranteed wins against each other! The 3 teams' season conference win total combined has never been more than that of East division champion in a non-covid year. Again, that's with 3 guaranteed wins every year against each other.
Statistically, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska are the bottom three of the West in that order. Those 3 have combined to go 67-135 in conference play since divisions. All three have beaten Michigan State in that span, Purdue has a win over Ohio State, while Nebraska and Illinois have beaten Penn State. Two of the three (Purdue and Nebraska) have had 6 win conference seasons. None of the bottom three in the east has done this outside the CoVid year. Illinois has won 4 conference games both of the last 2 non-covid seasons. Those 8 wins are 3 more than any of the bottom 3 East teams in the last 2 non-CoVid years.
There aren't the free wins in the West like there are in the East - just ask the East teams who constantly pound IU, Rutgers, and Maryland, but can't get past Illinois, Nebraska, or Purdue (or Minnesota or Northwestern). You have to show a lot every week in the west to win. You have to tax your guys more. That wears on you through a season and come championship time.
Conclusion: The general public is fooled by the myth of a wide talent gap between divisions. Heck, the AP voters are, too. Just like how they voted MSU top 10 last year and left Purdue unranked despite identical records against common opponents, Purdue with better margins against every single one, and the head-to-head smack down. And - if you swap Purdue's non-conference game at Notre Dame for MSU's non-conference game with Youngstown State, they finish with identical records, But hey, Ohio State is in the East, so MSU must have been pretty good! Almost half a conference season of free wins is all but guaranteed for the top of the East, artificially inflating their records and rankings.
It's Ohio State, then everyone else, and if the Buckeyes swapped divisions, suddenly no East team would ever win the conference.
The Claim: The Big Ten East has won all 8 Big Ten titles since the divisions were created. Therefore, the Big Ten East is clearly far superior. Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, MSU? Whoa. And the West is Wisconsin, Iowa, and ... Northwestern? Yuck.
The Counterargument: Ohio State is dominant and the rest of the East is riding the coattails and getting credit far beyond what they deserve. One game (The Big Ten Championship Game), especially one whose participants are often decided by crossover opponents, does not define a season or division parity.
Supporting Evidence: Without Ohio State, the Big Ten West holds a 68-62 crossover record. Ohio State is 23-2 in crossover games (and therefore, overall, the East leads 85-70). The other dominant teams?
Michigan State is 10-11 in regular-season crossover games, including 1-3 against Wisconsin and Iowa (only 4 games against the statistically best two teams in the division, combined). In fact, the only teams MSU has a winning crossover record against are Purdue (3-1, including 2-0 in the Hazell years), and Minnesota (1-0). MSU is 0-2 against Illinois (!!), 3-3 against Northwestern, and 2-2 against Nebraska (including a loss to 6-7 Nebraska in MSU's Big Ten Championship and Playoff Berth season). In other words, since divisions, MSU has typically played Rutgers, Indiana, Maryland, Northwestern, Nebraska, and Purdue - 6 of the 9 conference games - against what has been over that time span pretty much the 5 of the bottom 6 programs, and Northwestern, who is at the top or bottom from year-to-year. MSU? They've constantly been receiving credit where credit is NOT due. More on this later.
Penn State is 14-8 against the West, including 2-4 in the last two years, including losses to Illinois (at home) and Nebraska. They have a losing record against the third-best West team since divisions were created, with a 1-2 against Northwestern. They've also lost to the second-best West team, Iowa, two in a row.
Michigan is 16-5, by far the second-best in the East against the West. Yet, they are 4-4 in regular-season games against Wisconsin and Iowa.
Additional Arguments: The East gets 3 cakewalk wins every year with Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland. That's 3 games where they don't have to show their playbook, often can play a lot of guys and avoid injuries. After that, someone has to win the Michigan-Penn State game or MSU-Michigan, etc. Whichever that someone is, that's 4 division wins already. Whatever happens after that, pundits and voters ignore because it's a result against Ohio State or Michigan or MSU or PSU, and a "really good team has to lose." Then, if you happen to get Illinois (unless you're Michigan State) and Nebraska (again, unless you're Michigan State), that's probably two more relatively easy wins.
The West doesn't have the perennial basement dwellers that the East does. Since the East and West, Indiana, Rutgers, and Maryland have combined for a total of 2 conference records over .500, and that includes one during the CoVid year, which I personally do not count (no practice, teams and players opting out, coaches missing games, randomly start in October? Cmon!). Those 3 are an incredible 53-150 in conference play, and remember, they all play each other, so 24 of the 53 wins are against each other. Those 3 have finished as the bottom 3 in that division 4 of the 8 years (4 of 7 without CoVid year) and they've been 3 of the bottom 4 in the division 6 of the 8 years (6 of 7 without covid year. Maryland in 2014 is the outlier at 4-4). The 3 have combined for 5 conference wins or fewer in a season 3 times and 7 or fewer conference wins 6 of the 7 non Covid seasons - again that's with 3 guaranteed wins against each other! The 3 teams' season conference win total combined has never been more than that of East division champion in a non-covid year. Again, that's with 3 guaranteed wins every year against each other.
Statistically, Illinois, Purdue and Nebraska are the bottom three of the West in that order. Those 3 have combined to go 67-135 in conference play since divisions. All three have beaten Michigan State in that span, Purdue has a win over Ohio State, while Nebraska and Illinois have beaten Penn State. Two of the three (Purdue and Nebraska) have had 6 win conference seasons. None of the bottom three in the east has done this outside the CoVid year. Illinois has won 4 conference games both of the last 2 non-covid seasons. Those 8 wins are 3 more than any of the bottom 3 East teams in the last 2 non-CoVid years.
There aren't the free wins in the West like there are in the East - just ask the East teams who constantly pound IU, Rutgers, and Maryland, but can't get past Illinois, Nebraska, or Purdue (or Minnesota or Northwestern). You have to show a lot every week in the west to win. You have to tax your guys more. That wears on you through a season and come championship time.
Conclusion: The general public is fooled by the myth of a wide talent gap between divisions. Heck, the AP voters are, too. Just like how they voted MSU top 10 last year and left Purdue unranked despite identical records against common opponents, Purdue with better margins against every single one, and the head-to-head smack down. And - if you swap Purdue's non-conference game at Notre Dame for MSU's non-conference game with Youngstown State, they finish with identical records, But hey, Ohio State is in the East, so MSU must have been pretty good! Almost half a conference season of free wins is all but guaranteed for the top of the East, artificially inflating their records and rankings.
It's Ohio State, then everyone else, and if the Buckeyes swapped divisions, suddenly no East team would ever win the conference.
