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Allow unbridled optimism?

mathboy said:
SInce my post was the concern of many on here, let me re-post it with some improvements to ensure I am not misunderstood:

I agree with lbode - about keeping our expectations realistic. Not about people getting expectations out of line and getting pissed at the coach. Our expectations need to be realistic. We have a talented team, but we do not have real power players. Most of the talent on the team is of relatively the same level - this is an important point. Our players are about level in capability, and will have roughly the same ceiling. They are good players, and some are good-to-great players. Don't start thinking they are world beaters and Final Four material. Yes, if they play together at a high level of team work, and Swany proves to be the star we think he might be, and they get lucky, very lucky...

Just to temper the thinking, let's just look in the BIG - important paragraph. A number of teams are looking like us, poised for great success this year. Arguably, Maryland has as strong a front court as we do, and probably a better backcourt on paper. Trimble and the Duke transfer could make a tremendous pair. Both UM and IU can claim as talented a back court as we will field, and MSU might have the best balance of front and back court talent as any team in the BIG. When predicting how this team will do, you must recognise the strength of our competition

All that should not take away our enthusiasm for our team, but we need to recognise the challenges they face and be excited we are in position to meet and over come those challenges. - Most important part of my perspective. The BIG is going to be an even fight every night. It won't be like sailing the Bismark into a fleet of wooden sailing ships and blasting away. There will rarely be a one-sided game in the BIG this year. Even the weakest of teams will get a victory or two. The difference between the bottom and the top of the BIG is very slight. I'm just glad we are sitting near the top at the start.
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I agree with most of what you are saying, but where I disagree is that I expect Hammons to be a "power player" this season, especially on the defensive end of the court. AJ will give Purdue a big advantage at center over all, but a handful, of opponents.

What I am less sure of is whether Swanigan will also be a "power player", but I think that he has a chance to be one.
 
BoilerDaddy said:
I agree with most of what you are saying, but where I disagree is that I expect Hammons to be a "power player" this season, especially on the defensive end of the court. AJ will give Purdue a big advantage at center over all, but a handful, of opponents.

What I am less sure of is whether Swanigan will also be a "power player", but I think that he has a chance to be one.
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Boy I hope you are right. I just think back to the MSU game where that scrub backup center started to dominate AJ in the second half. He banged AJ right out of the paint, and stopped our offensive flow. I recall the announcer went nuts as this was going down. It was like AJ got intimidated. He can't let that happen again. He will face at least 3 good centers in the BIG this year, some a couple times.

Oh, and he will have to content with that all-world Bryant guy at IU (SIC) who will be petrolling the paint, preventing anyone from scoring layups or dunks.

:cool:
 
I understand the caution and not wanting to get too optimistic. All of us that have been fans for decades have been through many disappointments. But for me part of the excitement of being a fan is the months leading up to the season not just the actual season. It's reading about the recruits and how the summer training is going for the team ( I got excited about mile times)!! It's the anticipation of the first game either on TV or being at Mackey. It's all part of being a fan. This team has a lot to be excited about. Whether it turns out great, good or a disappointment will be played out over the coming months. I plan to enjoy every bit of it including being really optimistic for something special this year. I ordered the mini-plan this morning and can't wait for 11/18 to get here!! Boiler Up and enjoy the season!!
 
mathboy said:
Boy I hope you are right. I just think back to the MSU game where that scrub backup center started to dominate AJ in the second half. He banged AJ right out of the paint, and stopped our offensive flow. I recall the announcer went nuts as this was going down. It was like AJ got intimidated. He can't let that happen again. He will face at least 3 good centers in the BIG this year, some a couple times.

Oh, and he will have to content with that all-world Bryant guy at IU (SIC) who will be petrolling the paint, preventing anyone from scoring layups or dunks.

:cool:
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Yes. The MSU game was rough, but what made it so surprising is that AJ had been very consistent for a couple of months, up unto that game. This is in contrast to AJ's sophomore year, when we never knew which player would show up. I think that the MSU game will serve as an important lesson for AJ. He was clearly the most talented big man on the floor, but he was out hustled by a player who came right at him with something to prove. I don't see AJ's progression (in terms of consistency) suddenly halting now.

I think that the three main complaints about AJ thus far have been his motor, his body, and his indecisiveness. I think that his motor has improved dramatically and he has made great strides with his body and conditioning every year. I think that his decision making and decisiveness were also much better as a junior than they were when he was a sophomore. Now that he is a senior and has been the focus of defenses for 3 years, I think that we'll see an AJ who isn't surprised by much and who quickly makes the correct decision at the highest rate in his career.

Finally, I believe that playing with Swanigan will help AJ. Having another force in the paint for the defense to worry about will take some of the opposition's focus off of Hammons. Swanigan's passing and feel for the game should help Hammons get some easier points and playing together, the two should always have a physical advantage inside.
 
Would you agree that if you eliminated all of Purdue's weaknesses from last year that they would be the favorite to make the Final Four? Kentucky & Duke both had their guts ripped out this offseason via early NBA departures, so it's impossible for them to improve every weakness when so many more were created. It wouldn't matter much if a team like Northern Iowa improved every weakness, because there's just not much talent at their core. The ceiling is too low for them. But Purdue's ceiling is astronomically high. We are talking about NINE Top 150 recruits, including a McDonald's All-American, on the roster, after all. I believe Purdue has fixed every weakness this offseason. The MAIN weaknesses of 2014, at least. Here are what I viewed as the biggest weaknesses of 2014 (in order) and how Purdue fixed them:

1.) Inability to Break the Press: Purdue's top 2 point guards last year were the now-departed Octeus & Scott. The problem with this was that both players were natural shooting guards shoehorned into the role of point guard. Let me illustrate: In the Feb. 7 game at Minnesota, Purdue held a 4-point halftime lead. In the 2nd half, Minny slapped on a mean press. Octeus started the 2nd half at point. Turnover, committed foul, rushed shot. Minnesota went on a run. Bryson comes in to relieve Octeus. Turnover, committed foul, rushed shot. Minnesota continues the run. All told, it was a crushing 21-2 run. As soon as 3rd string point guard P.J. Thompson, a true point guard, came in, Purdue went on a 10-2 run and clawed back into the game, ultimately losing by 4.

Octeus could dunk & rebound, sure. But he couldn't do fundamental point guard tasks like break a press or set up his teammates. It's very clear to see that when you look at his stats prior to Purdue. His last season at Colorado State, he averaged 2.7 assists per 40 minutes, a paltry number for a point. His replacement this year, Johnny Hill, another true point guard, averaged double that last season at 5.4 assists per 40. That's not a fluke either, as he averaged 4.8 the year before in a different system with a different set of teammates.

Purdue's top 3 point guards this year are all true point guards. The press will be a non-issue.

2.) Shooting: The fact that Purdue shot 4-26 from 3 against UC and still lost by just a single point in overtime is a testament to how good they were at defense and rebounding. Purdue won't be challenging the Belmonts of the world at 3-point production in 2014. But they will be significantly improved.

Kendall & Dakota weren't healthy last offseason or during the season. Still, Kendall flirted with a very healthy 40% 3-point rate and should have no problem climbing into the mid-40% this year if his health holds up. Dakota shot 48% from 3 his senior year of high school. You can expect a slight drop off with any player moving from high school to college. But dropping all the way down to 32% doesn't make much sense. With better health, conditioning, and experience, Dakota should bridge that gap a little and climb closer to 40%. Don't sleep on Basil, either. He rose from a dismal 8% 3-point mark as a Freshman to a not-as-horrific 19% as a Sophomore. With another offseason of hard work, it's not impossible that he makes another big jump to a respectable 30-33%.

Plus, Raphael is taking 500+ shots a day to improve his professional resume. That can't hurt his chances of finally eclipsing 30% from behind the arc. Last but not least, there's Cline, who's only the best 3-point shooting Freshman in the country. Shooting will no longer be an Achilles' heel.

3.) AJ Was Too Slow: In the 2nd half of Purdue's late-season blowout loss to Wisconsin, Kaminsky dominated AJ. Dominated in the sense that AJ not only couldn't get a shot off without getting blocked, but also couldn't hold the ball without it getting knocked away.

The fact that Kaminski graduated helps. That leaves very few centers with his defensive presence left in college, and those are mostly guys out West like Tarczewski and Karnowski. But it wouldn't really be fixing a weakness unless AJ improved. After spending an entire month with NBA guys in the offseason to specifically work on being able to survive in the quicker pace of pro ball, AJ at least put in the effort to correct his biggest flaw. I think it'll pay big dividends when he faces off with Karnowski in the Final Four.

There you have it. Purdue is correcting all of their major weaknesses from 2014. Does that guarantee a spot in the Final Four? No. But it makes it ok to go into every single game expecting the Boilers to win. Because they can. Bring on the Turtle.
 
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Maybe I'm overthinking this, but I'm starting to believe this is the best year for Purdue to be peaking. All of the top incoming Freshman & transfers are being funneled to Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, & LSU. What do all those teams have in common? They all lost multiple early entrants to the NBA draft. That's on top of losing any transfers or seniors who graduated. Louisville, for instance, is now missing SEVEN big-time players who helped them start 11-0 last year, before they lost to undefeated Kentucky, who is also now missing SEVEN big-time players. Iowa State, who could've been untouchable, first lost their head coach Hoiberg, which caused them to miss out on big-time transfer Bielfeldt & big-time recruit Diallo. Which means while they haven't necessarily been weakened from a team that earned a #3 seed last year, they also haven't gotten much better.

The goal in March is to avoid the super teams that you have very little chance to beat. Michigan State managed that feat all the way until the Final Four last year. Two of the main super teams, maybe THE two main super teams this year, are Maryland & Indiana. Since they're in the B1G, Purdue most likely wouldn't face them until the Elite 8 at the earliest. Purdue's strength, plus the lack of strength of the other major teams, makes the dream of seeing my 1st Boiler Final Four all that more realistic.
 
FinallyABoilerFinal4 said:
Maybe I'm overthinking this, but I'm starting to believe this is the best year for Purdue to be peaking. All of the top incoming Freshman & transfers are being funneled to Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, & LSU. What do all those teams have in common? They all lost multiple early entrants to the NBA draft. That's on top of losing any transfers or seniors who graduated. Louisville, for instance, is now missing SEVEN big-time players who helped them start 11-0 last year, before they lost to undefeated Kentucky, who is also now missing SEVEN big-time players. Iowa State, who could've been untouchable, first lost their head coach Hoiberg, which caused them to miss out on big-time transfer Bielfeldt & big-time recruit Diallo. Which means while they haven't necessarily been weakened from a team that earned a #3 seed last year, they also haven't gotten much better.

The goal in March is to avoid the super teams that you have very little chance to beat. Michigan State managed that feat all the way until the Final Four last year. Two of the main super teams, maybe THE two main super teams this year, are Maryland & Indiana. Since they're in the B1G, Purdue most likely wouldn't face them until the Elite 8 at the earliest. Purdue's strength, plus the lack of strength of the other major teams, makes the dream of seeing my 1st Boiler Final Four all that more realistic.
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If IU is a super team, Purdue is either a super team or very close to one. IU has a very talented starting 5, but Purdue has a really talented starting 5 as well, with better depth.
 
BoilerDaddy said:
If IU is a super team, Purdue is either a super team or very close to one. IU has a very talented starting 5, but Purdue has a really talented starting 5 as well, with better depth.
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IU = no depth, no defense, and no floor coach. Virtually the same team we dominated, except they lost their upperclass 4 star center and his backup, and replaced him with a 5 star freshman and a UM scrub center. Super team?

Hummmm... 4 posts in and FInally thinks IU is a superteam? Boy that's a head scratcher. The rest of his post I buy into, and I think it is an interesting and fresh thought about the up coming season.

:cool:
 
mathboy said:
IU = no depth, no defense, and no floor coach. Virtually the same team we dominated, except they lost their upperclass 4 star center and his backup, and replaced him with a 5 star freshman and a UM scrub center. Super team?

Hummmm... 4 posts in and FInally thinks IU is a superteam? Boy that's a head scratcher. The rest of his post I buy into, and I think it is an interesting and fresh thought about the up coming season.

:cool:
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Technically Bryant is a 4 star freshman:

http://sports.yahoo.com/bwi/basketball/recruiting/player-Thomas-Bryant-139190
 
Only If at Purdue is the Guard play. Both the point guard and Shooting guards will determine how well and how far into the tournament the Boilers go.
Hammons, Haas, Davis are proven players. Swanigan looks to be good. It is the role of the two guard positions that are unknown, unproven and potentially the Purdue achilles heel. When the Boilermaker guards and shooting forwards consistently play well, then Purdue will be on the path to FF.
 
Bryant was a 4* according to ESPN, Rivals, and Scout. Maybe some other obscure rankings had him higher, but according to the main stream guys, he's a 4*.
 
It's amazing that Purdue managed to finish 3rd in the B1G last year with only one Senior and 3 upperclassmen total in the rotation. You'll see how much of a difference it makes in Purdue's efficiency this year now that they're rolling with three Senior starters and a healthy 5 upperclassmen.
 
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The stars are aligning when Purdue has such an abundance of experienced talent that they only need to rely on one true freshman. The stars are REALLY aligning when that one true freshman they're forced to rely on is a Mr. Basketball/FIBA Gold medalist/McDonald's All-American.
 
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FinallyABoilerFinal4 said:
You want something solid to be optimistic about? Something that you can hold in your hand? Purdue's recent troubles, two non-Tournament seasons & one 1st round exit, can all be tied to youth. You can get by with youth if you're talking about 5-star guys. But 3-star & 4-star guys typically need a couple seasons to grow. Let's look at the number of upperclassmen, specifically, upperclassmen that were/are good enough to earn a spot in the rotation, that Purdue has had in recent seasons:

2012 - 4
2013 - 4
2014 - 3
2015 - 5
2016 - 7 (assuming no jumpers or transfers)
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Those numbers mean little without comparison to other programs around the conference and the Big Ten. For example Michigan in those 5 seasons would've gone 3, 2, 2, 3, 4 and they've not had many 5 star recruits in that time frame (Irvin and GR3 were the only Rivals 5 star recruits) to get by on.

College basketball is a very young sport for the most part. A team dominated by upper classmen is rare, and for many teams can mean they just have guys that weren't good enough to go pro sooner. So while you'd always like kids to stay on campus and keep developing, it's rare to get the really good ones to do so. So you get stuck needing kids that are talented enough to win big, but then they go pro early and you need even more to replace them. Every now and then you get a situation like Wisconsin last year where you have late bloomers like Kaminsky combined with elite younger talent like Dekker that they got to stay for 3 years and throw in the 6th year guy Gasser and some talented youngsters like Hayes and Koenig and it all comes together in the perfect storm. But that's pretty rare and hard to plan and even harder to sustain and now with massive turnover Wisconsin is looking at a big step back (relatively speaking) in the conference pecking order.

Just gotta get the best talent you can and coach them up as fast as possible so they get better and attract the eye of even more recruits.
 
blockm2 said:
Those numbers mean little without comparison to other programs around the conference and the Big Ten. For example Michigan in those 5 seasons would've gone 3, 2, 2, 3, 4 and they've not had many 5 star recruits in that time frame (Irvin and GR3 were the only Rivals 5 star recruits) to get by on.

College basketball is a very young sport for the most part. A team dominated by upper classmen is rare, and for many teams can mean they just have guys that weren't good enough to go pro sooner. So while you'd always like kids to stay on campus and keep developing, it's rare to get the really good ones to do so. So you get stuck needing kids that are talented enough to win big, but then they go pro early and you need even more to replace them. Every now and then you get a situation like Wisconsin last year where you have late bloomers like Kaminsky combined with elite younger talent like Dekker that they got to stay for 3 years and throw in the 6th year guy Gasser and some talented youngsters like Hayes and Koenig and it all comes together in the perfect storm. But that's pretty rare and hard to plan and even harder to sustain and now with massive turnover Wisconsin is looking at a big step back (relatively speaking) in the conference pecking order.

Just gotta get the best talent you can and coach them up as fast as possible so they get better and attract the eye of even more recruits.
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I think you're missing the point. Purdue has been young, but Purdue is getting old. Maturity matters,especially with a system coach like Matt Painter who relies so heavily on his players reading and staying on the same page. Michigan has nothing to do with it.
 
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FinallyABoilerFinal4 said:
Maybe I'm overthinking this, but I'm starting to believe this is the best year for Purdue to be peaking. All of the top incoming Freshman & transfers are being funneled to Arizona, Duke, Kentucky, Louisville, & LSU. What do all those teams have in common? They all lost multiple early entrants to the NBA draft. That's on top of losing any transfers or seniors who graduated. Louisville, for instance, is now missing SEVEN big-time players who helped them start 11-0 last year, before they lost to undefeated Kentucky, who is also now missing SEVEN big-time players. Iowa State, who could've been untouchable, first lost their head coach Hoiberg, which caused them to miss out on big-time transfer Bielfeldt & big-time recruit Diallo. Which means while they haven't necessarily been weakened from a team that earned a #3 seed last year, they also haven't gotten much better.

The goal in March is to avoid the super teams that you have very little chance to beat. Michigan State managed that feat all the way until the Final Four last year. Two of the main super teams, maybe THE two main super teams this year, are Maryland & Indiana. Since they're in the B1G, Purdue most likely wouldn't face them until the Elite 8 at the earliest. Purdue's strength, plus the lack of strength of the other major teams, makes the dream of seeing my 1st Boiler Final Four all that more realistic.
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Troll outed.

iu is a "super team that you have very little chance to beat"?
 
I labeled IU as a super team because of 3 factors. The 1st is that the Hoosiers, probably through some scheme or connection, sent 3 players to the extremely exclusive Adidas Nations camp this summer. Those 3 worked together in a live game against an all-star squad that featured guys like National POTY-candidate Wiltjer, Wayne Selden, & Monte Morris and came out on top. That requires some serious skill. Plus, they added a McDonald's All-American. History has shown them to be immediate difference makers. Lastly, there's Bielfeldt. He had 6 different games during B1G play last year where he had at least 7 points & 7 rebounds.
 
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FinallyABoilerFinal4 said:
For those questioning my logic about labeling IU as the 2nd most super team in the country & Bielfeldt as a big-time transfer, we're both right. I wasn't overly confident making either of those claims, so they are a bit flimsy compared to my usual rock-solid points. But, in my defense, like all my claims, there is evidence behind them.

I labeled IU as a super team because of 3 factors. The 1st is that the Hoosiers, probably through some scheme or connection, sent 3 players to the extremely exclusive Adidas Nations camp this summer. Those 3 worked together in a live game against an all-star squad that featured guys like National POTY-candidate Wiltjer, Wayne Selden, & Monte Morris and came out on top. That requires some serious skill. Plus, they added a McDonald's All-American. History has shown them to be immediate difference makers. Lastly, there's Bielfeldt. It's hard to judge his ability, given his inconsistent minutes. But he does have a career rebounds-per-40 average. In comparison, Kaminsky's He had 6 different games during B1G play last year where he had at least 7 points & 7 rebounds. Those are grown man numbers considering he wasn't getting consistent minutes in a guard-oriented system. I also read somewhere that his calves are enormous. There's potential for him to be a dominant low-post presence.

It'll be a good win. Hopefully in front of the GameDay crew like someone else on this board suggested.
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There's no doubt that IU has talent. Ferrell, Johnson, Blackman, Williams, and Bryant give them a starting 5 that is among the most talented in college basketball. Their bench isn't deep, but has a lot of skill and experience.

That said, I think that most Purdue fans would much rather have to go through IU to get to the Final Four than MSU.
 
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Purdue's projected 2nd unit alone this year will include four former Top 150 recruits. They have the raw talent. Purdue's 9th man off the bench will be Basil Smotherman. He's a 6'6" Junior wing who contributed 2 points, 2 rebounds, and a steal in his 1st Tournament action last year against a very talented Cincinnati squad. He's Tournament ready.
 
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punaj said:
I feel like we are being SNU'd.
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Doubtful.
This guy has shown the ability to do research and draw his own conclusions.
If we are talking about a game of horse. IU is one of the most talented.
When it comes to both ends of the floor and basketball IQ, they are no where near the top 2.
 
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proudopete said:
Doubtful.
This guy has shown the ability to do research and draw his own conclusions.
If we are talking about a game of horse. IU is one of the most talented.
When it comes to both ends of the floor and basketball IQ, they are no where near the top 2.
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I'm thinking it is Snu, also. He's very long winded and doesn't make much sense = Snu.
 
GodFamilyCountryPurdue said:
I'm thinking it is Snu, also. He's very long winded and doesn't make much sense = Snu.
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It could be. But Snu speaks in absolutes with nothing to back it up except his first hand observations.
He also would have already started calling those who disagreed with him names and said that they were homers.
 
FinallyABoilerFinal4 said:
You might not be considering Vince Edward's defense one of Purdue's biggest weaknesses last year. But video evidence suggests it was. Vince surrendered the buzzer-beating layup that allowed Cincinnati to tie the Tournament game at the end of regulation. He also surrendered a crucial layup in overtime.

Vince's problem was that he wasn't quite big enough to guard frontcourt players effectively & not quite quick enough to guard backcourt players effectively. The addition of Swanigan & Taylor this year means that Vince won't be asked to guard frontcourt players too frequently. So improving his defense against lightning quick guards and wings was essential. As Fate would have it, Vince was invited to the FIBA U19 tryouts. There he faced off against some of the most lightning quick kids in the country. His main goal was to focus on shutting these kids down. He only had a couple days to work on this before the 1st cuts were made. But Vince made the 1st cut and got another week to perfect his defense.

Couple that experience with the yoga Purdue is practicing to improve flexibility, and it's not a stretch to say Vince could be challenging Raph & AJ for B1G Defensive POTY.

I've shown you that Purdue lost nothing in the offseason, gained much, and on top of that has corrected at least 4 of their biggest weaknesses with the returning players. Believe in Boiler Basketball 2015.
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Thanks for the laughs. You trying to be a Boiler fan is as funny as Robin Williams on Golf. Your analysis is just, well, precious. ROTFLMFAO
 
proudopete said:
It could be. But Snu speaks in absolutes with nothing to back it up except his first hand observations.
He also would have already started calling those who disagreed with him names and said that they were homers.
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Only reason I say that is that I thought I remembered SNU coming off as pretty non-biased with well thought out posts at first, and then it went all downhill after that.
 
punaj said:
Only reason I say that is that I thought I remembered SNU coming off as pretty non-biased with well thought out posts at first, and then it went all downhill after that.
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I'm pretty sure this is the "Ibuildfurnaces" guy. Same posting style but trying not to flame quite so much so he doesn't get banned. Won't last though.
 
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Heller said:
I'm pretty sure this is the "Ibuildfurnaces" guy. Same posting style but trying not to flame quite so much so he doesn't get banned. Won't last though.
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Plus in his post he used the word "their" to describe something about Purdue, yet insinuates he is a Purdue fan.... no real Purdue fan would make such a mistake
 
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punaj said:
Only reason I say that is that I thought I remembered SNU coming off as pretty non-biased with well thought out posts at first, and then it went all downhill after that.
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Yeah, I'm not even sure what or who he is arguing about/with now. Is he trying to persuade us to like Purdue?
 
GodFamilyCountryPurdue said:
Yeah, I'm not even sure what or who he is arguing about/with now. Is he trying to persuade us to like Purdue?
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He is obviously a troll.
Smarter then Snu however.
No Purdue fan would call Max a top transfer however.
Why would belien let a player of that ability with four years in the system go if he was that good?
He wouldn't.
 
If most of your players from the previous season graduated or transferred, they wouldn't have a chance to improve their %. But Purdue has 6 guards/forwards that played significant minutes last year coming back. With the work they're putting in this offseason, any one of them could make the jump that Hayes & Dekker made for Wisconsin last year.
 
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