A look at the contenders' remaining schedule

[boilerzz]

Yesterday's Northwestern win at Wisconsin certainly shook up the opinion that Wisconsin had a stranglehold on the Big Ten title. As it stands now, there are four teams vying for a Big Ten title:

Wisconsin - 10-2
Purdue - 9-3
Maryland - 9-3
Northwestern - 8-4

A look at their remaining schedules:

Wisconsin:

• 3 home, 3 away
• @ Michigan, Maryland, @ OSU, @ MSU, Iowa, Minnesota
• Combined Big Ten record - 39-35

Purdue:

• 3 home, 3 away
• Rutgers, MSU, @ PSU, @ Michigan, Indiana, @ Northwestern
• Combined Big Ten record - 34-41

Maryland:

• 3 home, 3 away
• @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, @ Rutgers, MSU
• Combined Big Ten record - 39-35

Northwestern:

• 4 home, 2 away
• Maryland, Rutgers, @ Illinois, @ Indiana, Michigan, Purdue
• Combined Big Ten record - 35-40

Purdue and Northwestern have the schedule advantage down the stretch; Purdue by virtue of the easiest schedule and only one contender remaining and Northwestern by virtue of having four home games and getting both Maryland and Purdue at home.

Wisconsin is 10-0 against teams with sub-.500 B1G records and 0-2 against teams with .500 or better records. They now play 4 of their final 6 games against the latter group and it could be five if Iowa wins home games against Illinois and IU prior to playing Maryland and Wisky.

Maryland has been odd this year, losing 3 home games already but going 6-1 on the road this season. With games at Northwestern and Wisconsin coming up, we'll see if they can continue that trend.

If Michigan and/or Maryland can knock off Wisky this week, it could set up for a wild finish. Frankly, looking at that schedule, I could easily envision a scenario whereby the Purdue game at Northwestern is an opportunity for Northwestern to grab a share of their first Big Ten championship in 84 years.

 

[TC4THREE]

This week will be particularly interesting with Maryland visiting both Northwestern and Wisconsin and Wisconsin also making the trip to Michigan. Those 3 games will tell us a ton.

From a team perspective, they just need to handle their business. 3 slip ups already have us backed into a corner. Can't afford another one if they hope to emerge with a conference championship.

 

[samcboiler]

Yesterday's Northwestern win at Wisconsin certainly shook up the opinion that Wisconsin had a stranglehold on the Big Ten title. As it stands now, there are four teams vying for a Big Ten title:

Wisconsin - 10-2
Purdue - 9-3
Maryland - 9-3
Northwestern - 8-4

A look at their remaining schedules:

Wisconsin:

• 3 home, 3 away
• @ Michigan, Maryland, @ OSU, @ MSU, Iowa, Minnesota
• Combined Big Ten record - 39-35

Purdue:

• 3 home, 3 away
• Rutgers, MSU, @ PSU, @ Michigan, Indiana, @ Northwestern
• Combined Big Ten record - 34-41

Maryland:

• 3 home, 3 away
• @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, @ Rutgers, MSU
• Combined Big Ten record - 39-35

Northwestern:

• 4 home, 2 away
• Maryland, Rutgers, @ Illinois, @ Indiana, Michigan, Purdue
• Combined Big Ten record - 35-40

Purdue and Northwestern have the schedule advantage down the stretch; Purdue by virtue of the easiest schedule and only one contender remaining and Northwestern by virtue of having four home games and getting both Maryland and Purdue at home.

Wisconsin is 10-0 against teams with sub-.500 B1G records and 0-2 against teams with .500 or better records. They now play 4 of their final 6 games against the latter group and it could be five if Iowa wins home games against Illinois and IU prior to playing Maryland and Wisky.

Maryland has been odd this year, losing 3 home games already but going 6-1 on the road this season. With games at Northwestern and Wisconsin coming up, we'll see if they can continue that trend.

If Michigan and/or Maryland can knock off Wisky this week, it could set up for a wild finish. Frankly, looking at that schedule, I could easily envision a scenario whereby the Purdue game at Northwestern is an opportunity for Northwestern to grab a share of their first Big Ten championship in 84 years.

Nice assessment. My only concern is (@ PSU, @ Michigan). We definitely have a chance, however I don't care much about Big Ten titles anymore. Lets just continue to play well, WIN, not worry so much about others and go into the NCAA Tournament and so some serious damage... Go Boilers!

 

[Boiler Wolf]

Nice assessment. My only concern is (@ PSU, @ Michigan). We definitely have a chance, however I don't care much about Big Ten titles anymore. Lets just continue to play well, WIN, not worry so much about others and go into the NCAA Tournament and so some serious damage... Go Boilers!

Agreed with the thought that winning the BIG regular season means we played well, gives us a higher seed, and gives us confidence and momentum in the Big Dance.

 

[TC4THREE]

hahahahah ya'll think you're contenders?!?!?!?! GET A GRIP DUM DUMS!!

This is a thread about contenders. You do not belong in it.

 

[TC4THREE]

well then how do you explain ya'll being in here?!?!?

We can still win the conference. Not even sure you can make the tournament at this point.

 

[SIBoiler2]

well then how do you explain ya'll being in here?!?!?

Over your latest case of the CLAP already???

 

[delish1]

Nice assessment. My only concern is (@ PSU, @ Michigan). We definitely have a chance, however I don't care much about Big Ten titles anymore. Lets just continue to play well, WIN, not worry so much about others and go into the NCAA Tournament and so some serious damage... Go Boilers!

I still would love to see a Big Ten title and with Wisconsin looking vulnerable the past couple weeks, it's back in the cards. A 4-loss share is back on the table, if Purdue can somehow run the table, I think it wins outright. It may not lead to a great seed in the tournament, but any season that ends with a Big Ten title is a good one. Plus, I think nationally Purdue is seen as the best team in the conference so Purdue with a title (or maybe two with the BIG tourney) would get a top 3 seed IMO.

I would think it would also build confidence in the team, the players aren't going to care if the conference is perceived as down. They are going to feel like Big Ten champs. That can only help in the tourney. It also helps to build momentum for the program.

I'm past the point of being able to manage my expectations with this team ...

 

[FirstDownB]

I think 4 losses will be enough for at least a share.

Could be a decisive week for the Badgers. Winning @UM and home vs. the Terps would offset the loss to NW.

 

[atmafola]

Maryland and Badgers both drop at least 1 this week

 

[rgarlitz]

I agree with TC --- Purdue MUST protect its home court this week.

 

[Chuchumutha]

Nice assessment. My only concern is (@ PSU, @ Michigan). We definitely have a chance, however I don't care much about Big Ten titles anymore. Lets just continue to play well, WIN, not worry so much about others and go into the NCAA Tournament and so some serious damage... Go Boilers!

Not worried about @NW? You should be.

 

[BoilerGal74]

I'm worried about Northwestern....historically Evanston has been our kryptonite-and that was when they were really not very good.

 

[njm8845]

Yesterday's Northwestern win at Wisconsin certainly shook up the opinion that Wisconsin had a stranglehold on the Big Ten title. As it stands now, there are four teams vying for a Big Ten title:

Wisconsin - 10-2
Purdue - 9-3
Maryland - 9-3
Northwestern - 8-4

A look at their remaining schedules:

Wisconsin:

• 3 home, 3 away
• @ Michigan, Maryland, @ OSU, @ MSU, Iowa, Minnesota
• Combined Big Ten record - 39-35

Purdue:

• 3 home, 3 away
• Rutgers, MSU, @ PSU, @ Michigan, Indiana, @ Northwestern
• Combined Big Ten record - 34-41

Maryland:

• 3 home, 3 away
• @ Northwestern, @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, @ Rutgers, MSU
• Combined Big Ten record - 39-35

Northwestern:

• 4 home, 2 away
• Maryland, Rutgers, @ Illinois, @ Indiana, Michigan, Purdue
• Combined Big Ten record - 35-40

Purdue and Northwestern have the schedule advantage down the stretch; Purdue by virtue of the easiest schedule and only one contender remaining and Northwestern by virtue of having four home games and getting both Maryland and Purdue at home.

Wisconsin is 10-0 against teams with sub-.500 B1G records and 0-2 against teams with .500 or better records. They now play 4 of their final 6 games against the latter group and it could be five if Iowa wins home games against Illinois and IU prior to playing Maryland and Wisky.

Maryland has been odd this year, losing 3 home games already but going 6-1 on the road this season. With games at Northwestern and Wisconsin coming up, we'll see if they can continue that trend.

If Michigan and/or Maryland can knock off Wisky this week, it could set up for a wild finish. Frankly, looking at that schedule, I could easily envision a scenario whereby the Purdue game at Northwestern is an opportunity for Northwestern to grab a share of their first Big Ten championship in 84 years.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say Purdue has the easiest schedule based on overall record of remaining opponents. You have to factor in where the game is being played, if there are any key players out, etc. You can find info online that has probability outcomes of each game. That should be the basis for determining "easiest schedule".

 

[BoilerStation]

I'd say its a tossup between Purdue and NW for easiest remaining schedule. Might go to us for the fact that we are a better team than NW and who I consider to be top 2 in the BT if not the best team. So essentially we don't have to play one of the top 2 teams while they do.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Not worried about @NW? You should be.

 

[boilerzz]

I'm not sure it's accurate to say Purdue has the easiest schedule based on overall record of remaining opponents. You have to factor in where the game is being played, if there are any key players out, etc. You can find info online that has probability outcomes of each game. That should be the basis for determining "easiest schedule".

I did consider where the games were being played. Key players being out would require the foresight to know who will be out (When does Lindsey return?).

Here's another method. Per KenPom, the % chance each team wins out:

Purdue - 15.6% ("favored" in all 6)
Wisconsin - 10.1% ("favored" in 5 of 6)
Northwestern - 4.5% ("favored" in 4 of 6)
Maryland - 1.7% ("favored" in 4 of 6)

 

[Zaphod_B]

Nice assessment. My only concern is (@ PSU, @ Michigan).

I personally wouldn't overlook Indiana, either. I know they're in an shambles right now, but I've seen Purdue/IU spoil each others seasons too many times..

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I did consider where the games were being played. Key players being out would require the foresight to know who will be out (When does Lindsey return?).

Here's another method. Per KenPom, the % chance each team wins out:

Purdue - 15.6% ("favored" in all 6)
Wisconsin - 10.1% ("favored" in 5 of 6)
Northwestern - 4.5% ("favored" in 4 of 6)
Maryland - 1.7% ("favored" in 4 of 6)

No specified or publicized/scheduled return for Lindsey, but most expect him back by that last regular season game with Purdue. Granted, the longer he's out, the more likely he'll be somewhat rusty if he returns. Regardless, that's going to be a difficult game for the Boilers.

I'd still give the edge to Wisconsin, but it's nice for the Boilers to at least get within striking distance.

 

[Boiler Wolf]

At this stage of the game Kenpom has us ending up 14-4, Wisky 14-4, Maryland 12-6, NW 12-6.

 

[BoilerStation]

If we tie Wisconsin in overall record is it a split title or are we the outright winners due to us winning the head to head game? I know we will be the #1 seed in BTT but unsure on the other part.

 

[boilernuke]

No specified or publicized/scheduled return for Lindsey, but most expect him back by that last regular season game with Purdue. Granted, the longer he's out, the more likely he'll be somewhat rusty if he returns. Regardless, that's going to be a difficult game for the Boilers.

I'd still give the edge to Wisconsin, but it's nice for the Boilers to at least get within striking distance.

Does he have mono? My daughter had it and could not play sports for 2 months. Plus for 8 months after, she would have a few spells of tiredness and would catch colds easily. Hope Lindsey can recover quickly. I think it's a day-to-day thing and I believe there could be an issue with the spleen if recovery is rushed.

 

[TC4THREE]

If we tie Wisconsin in overall record is it a split title or are we the outright winners due to us winning the head to head game? I know we will be the #1 seed in BTT but unsure on the other part.

I believe both teams are considered champions if they tie in the standings. I believe tiebreakers are used only for BTT seeding.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

I believe both teams are considered champions if they tie in the standings. I believe tiebreakers are used only for BTT seeding.

Yes....only for seeding purposes in the BTT.

 

[BoilerInChiTown]

If we tie Wisconsin in overall record is it a split title or are we the outright winners due to us winning the head to head game? I know we will be the #1 seed in BTT but unsure on the other part.

Co-champions, but we get to be #1 seed.
B1G titles are nice (more like regional titles), but everyone else think of you based on how you do in the NCAA tournament.
You probably could say that's our biggest problem when it comes to recruiting the top talents and national recognition.

 

[Boiler Wolf]

Does he have mono? My daughter had it and could not play sports for 2 months. Plus for 8 months after, she would have a few spells of tiredness and would catch colds easily. Hope Lindsey can recover quickly. I think it's a day-to-day thing and I believe there could be an issue with the spleen if recovery is rushed.

Yes, it is mono. And according to the Chicago Trib, there are rumors he could return against MD, which is really early. Even if he doesn't return until our game, that's barely over a month since he was diagnosed. That is about the shortest amount of time possible to come back.

 

[Purdue Grad in Texas]

Does he have mono? My daughter had it and could not play sports for 2 months. Plus for 8 months after, she would have a few spells of tiredness and would catch colds easily. Hope Lindsey can recover quickly. I think it's a day-to-day thing and I believe there could be an issue with the spleen if recovery is rushed.

Yes. He last played at the end of January against Indiana.

 

[BoilerStation]

Getting that win against Wisconsin was huge for them and gives them some extra time to make sure he is ready to come back without being rushed.