A fair assessment of the B1G

[woggy718]

In my constant stalking of news outlets for even the smallest sniff of basketball news to get me through the off season I came across this article.

They have the Boilermakers 5th but clearly state that 2-5 are basically interchangeable. I can see what Loosier fans are excited because given their BIG schedule, I'd be excited too.

http://m.bleacherreport.com/article...-2015-16-big-ten-college-basketball-standings

 

[jimmygoiu]

In my constant stalking of news outlets for even the smallest sniff of basketball news to get me through the off season I came across this article.

They have the Boilermakers 5th but clearly state that 2-5 are basically interchangeable. I can see what Loosier fans are excited because given their BIG schedule, I'd be excited too.

http://m.bleacherreport.com/article...-2015-16-big-ten-college-basketball-standings

When I evaluate the PU roster, I really feel you are a top 3 B1G team, and top 15 nationally. IF a PG surfaces, as JO did last year, PU really has no weakness. The size, depth and shooting are all in place. PU is playing D like they used to. IU does have a favorable schedule, so I see them in the top 4 also. It should be a fun year for both schools. The IU/PU game could be a national event again. I hope IU wins. : )

 

[woggy718]

When I evaluate the PU roster, I really feel you are a top 3 B1G team, and top 15 nationally. IF a PG surfaces, as JO did last year, PU really has no weakness. The size, depth and shooting are all in place. PU is playing D like they used to. IU does have a favorable schedule, so I see them in the top 4 also. It should be a fun year for both schools. The IU/PU game could be a national event again. I hope IU wins. : )

WHAT PLANET ARE YOU FROM?

A sensible IU fan. That's almost like finding a unicorn. Thanks for bringing an honest And intelligent perspective.

 

[BigTimeAt69]

When I evaluate the PU roster, I really feel you are a top 3 B1G team, and top 15 nationally. IF a PG surfaces, as JO did last year, PU really has no weakness. The size, depth and shooting are all in place. PU is playing D like they used to. IU does have a favorable schedule, so I see them in the top 4 also. It should be a fun year for both schools. The IU/PU game could be a national event again. I hope IU wins. : )

You hit the nail on the head. And by all accounts Hill had been extremely impressive and a perfect fit for this team. I even heard he is as good if not a better fit than JO

 

[bnsummers]

You hit the nail on the head. And by all accounts Hill had been extremely impressive and a perfect fit for this team. I even heard he is as good if not a better fit than JO

BT69 just stop (tic). You're making it extremely difficult for me to temper my enthusiasm. Have you been able to watch the team or is this info coming from an internal source?

 

[CRBoiler]

I liked the B1G preview shared by the OP, especially the incorporation of difficulty of schedule. I agree there are several teams that will fight for 2nd through 5th (assuming Maryland is as good as predicted).

However, I think it is a stretch as THIS point in time for the author to say we should expect Bryant to lift IU to the caliber of "fringe national contender". Maybe Bryant is that good, will be able to play big minutes and will avoid typical freshman big challenges like foul trouble, committing excessive turnovers, etc. But there is not enough depth down low on that team, even with Bryant performing well, and there is no indication IU's defense is going to be improved enough to achieve 2nd in the conference. Even with their favorable schedule, I would project them from 5th to 7th.

 

[SIBoiler2]

You hit the nail on the head. And by all accounts Hill had been extremely impressive and a perfect fit for this team. I even heard he is as good if not a better fit than JO

Keep posting crap like this and you'll have to change your name to SNU2!!!

 

[MDS3]

1. Maryland
2. Purdue
3. Indiana
4. Michigan State
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin

--I still think 1-6 are all interchangeable...I cant crown Maryland yet cause they lost their "heart" player with Dez Wells.

 

[BoilerDaddy]

1. Maryland
2. Purdue
3. Indiana
4. Michigan State
5. Michigan
6. Wisconsin

--I still think 1-6 are all interchangeable...I cant crown Maryland yet cause they lost their "heart" player with Dez Wells.

I also thought that Maryland had an awful lot go well last season. They won just about every close game they were in until the postseason. It will be tough to reproduce such results with the pressure of being the prohibitive favorite with a top 5 preseason ranking.

There's no doubt that Maryland is loaded with talent, but they are unproven as a unit with three new projected starters. It won't surprise me if they win the Big Ten title, but it is far less certain than many seem to be projecting at this early stage.

 

[SIBoiler2]

I also thought that Maryland had an awful lot go well last season. They won just about every close game they were in until the postseason. It will be tough to reproduce such results with the pressure of being the prohibitive favorite with a top 5 preseason ranking.

There's no doubt that Maryland is loaded with talent, but they are unproven as a unit with three new projected starters. It won't surprise me if they win the Big Ten title, but it is far less certain than many seem to be projecting at this early stage.

While Maryland may well win the conference I keep thinking of a Nebraska team that we assumed would be good last year coming off their previous year's success and they stunk it up.

 

[pboiler18]

While Maryland may well win the conference I keep thinking of a Nebraska team that we assumed would be good last year coming off their previous year's success and they stunk it up.

That Nebraska team had about half the talent this Maryland team does.

Diamond Stone is the real deal, sulaimon the transfer from Duke is a 15+ppg guy and Trimble is back. They aren't unbeatable but are the most talented team on paper by far.

There will be no 2nd to 12th place slide here.

 

[TwinDegrees2]

I liked the B1G preview shared by the OP, especially the incorporation of difficulty of schedule. I agree there are several teams that will fight for 2nd through 5th (assuming Maryland is as good as predicted).

However, I think it is a stretch as THIS point in time for the author to say we should expect Bryant to lift IU to the caliber of "fringe national contender". Maybe Bryant is that good, will be able to play big minutes and will avoid typical freshman big challenges like foul trouble, committing excessive turnovers, etc. But there is not enough depth down low on that team, even with Bryant performing well, and there is no indication IU's defense is going to be improved enough to achieve 2nd in the conference. Even with their favorable schedule, I would project them from 5th to 7th.

Great post. When I see IU fans ranting about Bryant, I have to make sure I put the coffee cup down, lest I spit it on the monitor. Both he and Swanigan are going to struggle their first year...neither are Kobe nor Labron. The difference I see is that PU has lots of experience in the post to take pressure off Swanigan, where IU has none of that. Sure, they have Troy, but if he can't dunk it, he struggles to hit it. As for IU's vaunted guard play, the others still don't care much for Yogi. I really think Johnson is a huge key to any success IU has this year.

AJ and Haas give Swanigan the opportunity to not have the pressure on him that Bryant comes in carrying. I agree with your IU prediction, but I have them at 7th to 9th.
Maryland, Purdue (one of those two will win the Big
Michigan (they're back for sure)
MSU (Izzo finds a way)
OSU (almost as much pure talent as Maryland/Purdue)
Wisky (Bo will get the rocking chairs and he'll sit in them and watch the Badgers do what they do)
IU, Illinois, Iowa (not necessarily in that order...all with suspect coaching that will cost them games)
Northwestern (may be very good this year, and should make the NCAA's)
Minnesota (this may be Little Slick's last season in snow country)
PSU (Watch for a few upsets as PSU gets better later in the season)
Nebraska (It's show up or move out for Miles)
Rutgers (Good thing they play football)

 

[Boiler149]

Having iu 2nd is a joke but besides that i agree with most of the article

 

[septimusharding]

That Nebraska team had about half the talent this Maryland team does.

Diamond Stone is the real deal, sulaimon the transfer from Duke is a 15+ppg guy and Trimble is back. They aren't unbeatable but are the most talented team on paper by far.

There will be no 2nd to 12th place slide here.

I think you and SIBoiler are both right. There's no way Maryland has a Nebraska-like collapse, but I think there are a lot of unknowns:

1) Who takes Dez Wells place as "the man"? Wells was an experienced guy who played a decent number of minutes (about 25 per game) and ate up a bunch of possessions (over 30%) with decent efficiency. Guys like that who draw the focus of the defense open up things for other players. Losing that kind of player can have a huge ripple effect.

2) How good were they really last year? KenPom's ratings had them as the 5th best team in the Big Ten last year, right below Iowa and right above Purdue. As BoilerDaddy said above, they basically won every close game they were in. They were 6-0 during the Big Ten season in games decided by 5 points or fewer. Winning a lot of close games in a small sample essentially boils down to luck. Had they split those games, they would have been 11-7 in the BIG last season.

3) How much will their new faces contribute? Some of their expected major contributors are new faces in Stone and Sulaimon. While I think we'd all admit that those guys are solid players who we'd love to have (Sulaimon's off-court shenanigins aside), they are new, and accordingly the contributions they'll make next year are much more of an unknown than if they were returning players.

So there's good reason to think that Maryland might have a lower floor next season than some people expect. If they have trouble replacing Wells or integrating their new pieces, or if they don't have the close game magic they had last year, a middle of the pack finish is not out of the question.

 

[blockm2]

my take home about the conference is that it's relatively loaded compared to last season. Wisconsin was a truly elite team last season, but other than them the conference was pretty lackluster with really nobody else consistently in the top 25 all season long.

Next season I expect a much deeper group at the top of the conference and would think we'd see 5-7 ranked teams in any given week.

I understand why Maryland is favored right now, but I'd be hard pressed to bet against any of those top 5-7 teams. It's going to be a dogfight in conference play and 14-4 or 13-5 might be good enough to win it because there are going to be a lot of teams with 11+ wins in Big Ten play.

 

[GregJM24]

GREG'S 2015-16 BIG TEN PROJECTIONS

B10 rank (NCAA seed)
1. Maryland (1)
2. Purdue (1)
3. Michigan State (2)
3. Indiana (3)
5. Iowa (6)
6. Ohio State (6)
7. Wisconsin (7)
8. Michigan (9)
9. Northwestern (NIT)
10. Illinois (NIT)
11. Minnesota
12. Nebraska
13. Penn State
14. Rutgers

 

[Russ Wood]

When talking about Maryland you can't forget former All-ACC player Robert Carter. He's a potential double-double guy who could be All B1G first team. Then there's Jake Layman and their bench has plenty of depth.

 

[*4purdue*]

I think we are extremely under-rated, but we will get our chance on the court. I'm not sure how many teams have the ability to compete with us inside. I don't see any in the B1G.

 

[HoosierfanJM]

Great post. When I see IU fans ranting about Bryant, I have to make sure I put the coffee cup down, lest I spit it on the monitor. Both he and Swanigan are going to struggle their first year...neither are Kobe nor Labron. The difference I see is that PU has lots of experience in the post to take pressure off Swanigan, where IU has none of that. Sure, they have Troy, but if he can't dunk it, he struggles to hit it. As for IU's vaunted guard play, the others still don't care much for Yogi. I really think Johnson is a huge key to any success IU has this year.

AJ and Haas give Swanigan the opportunity to not have the pressure on him that Bryant comes in carrying. I agree with your IU prediction, but I have them at 7th to 9th.
Maryland, Purdue (one of those two will win the Big
Michigan (they're back for sure)
MSU (Izzo finds a way)
OSU (almost as much pure talent as Maryland/Purdue)
Wisky (Bo will get the rocking chairs and he'll sit in them and watch the Badgers do what they do)
IU, Illinois, Iowa (not necessarily in that order...all with suspect coaching that will cost them games)
Northwestern (may be very good this year, and should make the NCAA's)
Minnesota (this may be Little Slick's last season in snow country)
PSU (Watch for a few upsets as PSU gets better later in the season)
Nebraska (It's show up or move out for Miles)
Rutgers (Good thing they play football)

Max Bielfeldt is a high quality, experienced backup (note - I said backup) post in the B1G. He fills an extremely important role for IU, much in the same way that PJ Thompson can fill an important role for Purdue; an experienced, not all that athletic backup at a key position that plays within their capabilities for 10-12 minutes per game.

Bielfeldt will be a key element for IU. Without a major, major injury issue, I cannot see any circumstance whereby IU finishes 7-9th in the B1G; that would mean we did not lose a key player, have far more experience than last year, replaced Perea with Bryant and Bielfeldt, and still regressed?

Both Purdue and IU have a real chance of being top ten teams for a significant portion of the season if the injury bugs don't hit.

 

[BBG]

I think we are extremely under-rated, but we will get our chance on the court. I'm not sure how many teams have the ability to compete with us inside. I don't see any in the B1G.

I actually prefer it that way. Sort takes a little pressure off I would imagine.

 

[septimusharding]

When talking about Maryland you can't forget former All-ACC player Robert Carter. He's a potential double-double guy who could be All B1G first team. Then there's Jake Layman and their bench has plenty of depth.

Good point about Carter (whom I had in fact forgotten), though he too can be filed under the "integrating new faces" problem.

I certainly don't deny that Maryland has a lot of horses. But how they're all going to fit together is the question.

 

[blockm2]

Max Bielfeldt is a high quality, experienced backup (note - I said backup) post in the B1G. He fills an extremely important role for IU, much in the same way that PJ Thompson can fill an important role for Purdue; an experienced, not all that athletic backup at a key position that plays within their capabilities for 10-12 minutes per game.

define "high quality". Bielfeldt showed at Michigan he can successfully play the post against low quality opponents. He also showed himself to be drastically overmatched against quality opponents. He would've been Michigan's 4th string option at center this season. He can help against bad teams, but don't count on him to do much of anything consistently against anybody good.

 

[pboiler18]

define "high quality". Bielfeldt showed at Michigan he can successfully play the post against low quality opponents. He also showed himself to be drastically overmatched against quality opponents. He would've been Michigan's 4th string option at center this season. He can help against bad teams, but don't count on him to do much of anything consistently against anybody good.

This. Big oversell by the IU homer.

He gives IU 5 extra fouls in the post. That's about it. That a young and not so great Ricky Doyel took substantial minutes from him is all you need to know.

 

[*4purdue*]

define "high quality". Bielfeldt showed at Michigan he can successfully play the post against low quality opponents. He also showed himself to be drastically overmatched against quality opponents. He would've been Michigan's 4th string option at center this season. He can help against bad teams, but don't count on him to do much of anything consistently against anybody good.

I was not impressed last year. If UM did not have as many injury's as they had, he would have never seen the floor. Heck they even played the Dakich kid who was a walk on. They reminded me of some of Keady's teams hislast few years. He's a 6'-8" kid that should be playing in the MAC, not the B1G. He's way undersized to play in the B1G. Can't wait to see him try to guard AJ or Haas.

 

[Da_Bull]

This. Big oversell by the IU homer.

He gives IU 5 extra fouls in the post. That's about it. That a young and not so great Ricky Doyel took substantial minutes from him is all you need to know.

Beilfeldt-14.5mpg 5.1pts/g 3.6rb/g
Doyle 18.2mpg 6.1pts/g 3.2rb/g

Pretty similar numbers, Beilfeldt with better per40 numbers. I wouldn't say he took substantial minutes, Beilfeldt only had 4.7mpg the year before. He'll be a solid backup, better than 6'6 Hartman in the post.

 

[blockm2]

Beilfeldt-14.5mpg 5.1pts/g 3.6rb/g
Doyle 18.2mpg 6.1pts/g 3.2rb/g

Pretty similar numbers, Beilfeldt with better per40 numbers. I wouldn't say he took substantial minutes, Beilfeldt only had 4.7mpg the year before. He'll be a solid backup, better than 6'6 Hartman in the post.

Bielfeldt racked up his numbers against the worst opponents. Doyle was decimated by deconditioning from a virus midseason but rebounded by the end of the year to go 6/6 from the field against Kaminsky in the BTT.

Bielfeldt vs KenPom's "tier A" (top 50) opponents had an O-rating of 91.8 and got called for 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes. Vs everybody else (outside top 50) he had an O-rating of 119 and got called for 3.2 fouls per 40 minutes. He can be really good against terrible opponents but will struggle mightily against good teams.

 

[Catfish_ Crazy]

Bielfeldt racked up his numbers against the worst opponents. Doyle was decimated by deconditioning from a virus midseason but rebounded by the end of the year to go 6/6 from the field against Kaminsky in the BTT.

Bielfeldt vs KenPom's "tier A" (top 50) opponents had an O-rating of 91.8 and got called for 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes. Vs everybody else (outside top 50) he had an O-rating of 119 and got called for 3.2 fouls per 40 minutes. He can be really good against terrible opponents but will struggle mightily against good teams.

He is going to be a effing back up.

 

[Da_Bull]

I think you and SIBoiler are both right. There's no way Maryland has a Nebraska-like collapse, but I think there are a lot of unknowns:

1) Who takes Dez Wells place as "the man"? Wells was an experienced guy who played a decent number of minutes (about 25 per game) and ate up a bunch of possessions (over 30%) with decent efficiency. Guys like that who draw the focus of the defense open up things for other players. Losing that kind of player can have a huge ripple effect.

2) How good were they really last year? KenPom's ratings had them as the 5th best team in the Big Ten last year, right below Iowa and right above Purdue. As BoilerDaddy said above, they basically won every close game they were in. They were 6-0 during the Big Ten season in games decided by 5 points or fewer. Winning a lot of close games in a small sample essentially boils down to luck. Had they split those games, they would have been 11-7 in the BIG last season.

3) How much will their new faces contribute? Some of their expected major contributors are new faces in Stone and Sulaimon. While I think we'd all admit that those guys are solid players who we'd love to have (Sulaimon's off-court shenanigins aside), they are new, and accordingly the contributions they'll make next year are much more of an unknown than if they were returning players.

So there's good reason to think that Maryland might have a lower floor next season than some people expect. If they have trouble replacing Wells or integrating their new pieces, or if they don't have the close game magic they had last year, a middle of the pack finish is not out of the question.

Props on this. Maryland is battling still for at least a share of the title but they didn't run away with it like a lot of people thought.

 

[purdue4sure]

Props on this. Maryland is battling still for at least a share of the title but they didn't run away with it like a lot of people thought.

Has there ever been anyone more desperately in need of affirmation?

I'm going to teach my kids that as they go through life, they will have struggles. But keep things in perspective. At least you will always be better off than Da Bull.