2017-2018 too early team & player predictions

[nagemj02]

I know it's too early to do this since next season's roster isn't finalized, but just for fun anyway, with the players we expect to see returning or incoming, what are your predictions for them and the team as a whole (statistically or otherwise: try to at least be somewhat realistic, if possible) next season?

There are many ways to go with this (choose which ever way you want; ex: who you believe might fill the assistant coaching vacancy) but I'm just going to start with the basic team/player PPG breakdown predictions:


Returning Scholarship Players:

1. F Vince Edwards (Sr.)

2016-2017 average: 12.6 PPG

2017-2018 prediction: 14 PPG


2. C Isaac Haas (Sr.)

2016-2017 average: 12.6 PPG

2017-2018 prediction: 13.5 PPG


3. G Carsen Edwards (So.)

2016-2017 average: 10.3 PPG

2017-2018 prediction: 12.5 PPG (more efficient in getting this output)


4. SG Dakota Mathias (Sr.)

2016-2017 average: 9.7 PPG

2017-2018 prediction: 10 PPG


5. G P.J. Thompson (Sr.)

2016-2017 average: 7.4 PPG

2017-2018 prediction: 8 PPG


6. SG Ryan Cline (Jr.)

2016-2017 average: 5.4 PPG

2017-2018 prediction: 5 PPG


7. C/PF Jacquil Taylor (RS So. or RS Jr.?)

2015-2016 average: 2 PPG

2017-2018 prediction: 2.5 PPG


Newcomers:

1. G/SF Nojel Eastern (Fr.)

2017-2018 prediction: 7 PPG


2. F Aaron Wheeler (Fr.)

2017-2018 prediction: 4 PPG


3. F Eden Ewing (Jr.)

2017-2018 prediction: 2.5 PPG


4. PF/C Matt Haarms (Fr.)

2017-2018 prediction: 1 PPG


5. SG Sasha Stefanovic (Fr.)

2017-2018 prediction: redshirt or go to prep school for a year


Final Tally:

1. V. Edwards: 14 PPG
2. Haas: 13.5 PPG
3. C. Edwards: 12.5 PPG
4. Mathias: 10 PPG
5. Thompson: 8 PPG
6. Eastern: 7 PPG
7. Cline: 5 PPG
8. Wheeler: 4 PPG
9. Taylor: 2.5 PPG
10. Ewing: 2.5 PPG
11. Haarms: 1 PPG


Team: 80 PPG

Boiler Up

 

[Boiler Buck]

If those are B1G averages and we score 80 points/game in the B1G we will be alright.

 

[BoilerStation]

I could see us leading the big ten in scoring and averaging 80 to 83 a game.

 

[Boiler Buck]

I could see us leading the big ten in scoring and averaging 80 to 83 a game.

Excellent.... With the D we usually play that would be a good outcome.

 

[BoilerStation]

Don't really see any big jumps as far as increases in scoring go but I also don't think we see a drop off from anybody. Maybe PJ. Haas goes up a point or 2, same for CE. Mathias, Cline and Vince hold steady and the 5 or 6 newcomers are able to average a combined what Biggie and Spike did at the very least.

 

[daisyrail1619]

Taylor is still UNKNOWN, and Wheeler is not fully ready, he may RS, Ewing will backup for Vince. Sasha is 99% RS. Haarms will be more productive that that. Eastern will eventually start if he's consistent. At this point, I think Painter still doesn't have an idea what Biggie is thinking since he guards himself so well from everything. Ad HC Painter has to make sub choices by pursuing bigs. Painter is not confident with Biggie leaving or not at all. I want Biggie to be more clear with his choice so that Painter can target someone he likes harder instead of hunting bigs at this time of the year makes everything so not sure. The worst case scenario, we won't get anyone later on, Biggie stays in draft, Taylor not healthy next season. Be prepared!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[nagemj02]

If those are B1G averages and we score 80 points/game in the B1G we will be alright.

I think it's a possibility. Purdue has averaged 80 and 78 PPG, respectively, in each of the past two seasons. With an assumption that most of the core players are returning (with the exception of Albrecht and most likely Swanigan), along with adding several newcomers, the offensive attack should still be stout.

 

[Purdue0034]

I think the OP is pretty close, with one exception, I expect Eastern to be averaging in double figures and really contributing right out of the gate!

 

[nagemj02]

I think the OP is pretty close, with one exception, I expect Eastern to be averaging in double figures and really contributing right out of the gate!

Those are high expectations for him. I know he does a good job of getting to the rim but for me, I just have to see how well he can score in other ways before believing that he will be a 10+ PPG scorer as a freshman. This summer's World University Games should be the first time we can get a better gauge on that.

 

[BoilerInChiTown]

We will be fine in scoring, but our biggest weakest will be our rebounding without Biggie and if we don't have another PF/C coming in especially after Haas & VE in 18/19 season.

Last year we average 37.7 rebound/gm with Biggie and ranked 6th (surprising, I know) in the B1G.

Team 16/17: Rebounds = 37.7; Team 17/18: Proj. Reb. (24.1 returning + 11 new = 35.1 total)
Biggie: 12.5, Haas: 7
Haas: 5, VE: 6
VE: 4.9, DM: 4
DM: 3.9, CE: 3
CE: 2.6, PJ: 2.1
PJ: 2.1, RC: 2
RC: 2, Haarms: 2.5 (He will play less if Taylor plays more)
Rest: 4.7, Eastern: 2.5
Wheeler: 2
Ewing: 3
Taylor: 1 (If he plays, Haarms will play less...)

I hope our newcomers do better, but this would put us 12th out of 14th B1G teams...This would worried me the MOST.

Stats from 16/17:

REB OFFENSE G REB AVG./G
1. Rutgers 33 1319 40.0
2. Minnesota 34 1341 39.4
3. Indiana 34 1326 39.0
4. Nebraska 30 1161 38.7
5. Iowa 34 1305 38.4
6. Purdue 35 1319 37.7
7. Ohio State 32 1192 37.3
8. Wisconsin 37 1376 37.2
9. Michigan State 35 1275 36.4
10. Northwestern 36 1304 36.2
11. Maryland 33 1172 35.5
12. Penn State 33 1169 35.4
13. Illinois 35 1217 34.8
14. Michigan 37 1082 29.2​

 

[ChoiceBeef]

Taylor is still UNKNOWN, and Wheeler is not fully ready, he may RS, Ewing will backup for Vince. Sasha is 99% RS. Haarms will be more productive that that. Eastern will eventually start if he's consistent. At this point, I think Painter still doesn't have an idea what Biggie is thinking since he guards himself so well from everything. Ad HC Painter has to make sub choices by pursuing bigs. Painter is not confident with Biggie leaving or not at all. I want Biggie to be more clear with his choice so that Painter can target someone he likes harder instead of hunting bigs at this time of the year makes everything so not sure. The worst case scenario, we won't get anyone later on, Biggie stays in draft, Taylor not healthy next season. Be prepared!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is there truth to Wheeler Red Shirting? Or is that pure speculation?

 

[nagemj02]

Based off of their posting style, I would venture a guess that it's speculation. Stefanovic is the only newcomer I can imagine redshirting.

 

[Wolegib]

Wheeler redshirting is pure speculation by this board's posters it would be a total waste. I don't care if Brian Cardinal redshirted. We need Wheeler to play.

 

[LionBulldog83]

Wheeler is now a 4* on Scout's Final Rankings which came out today (#27th ranked SF in the country). Why would he need to redshirt at Purdue? Definitely pure speculation by some posters on this board. Now, as a legitimate 4* with Scout -- which has the toughest evaluators -- can we now put to rest this "redshirt" speculation?

 

[Boiler Buck]

Wheeler plays. If he can D it up, he will play and score more than the OP says. But D is the limiting factor here.

 

[ChoiceBeef]

Wheeler is now a 4* on Scout's Final Rankings which came out today (#27th ranked SF in the country). Why would he need to redshirt at Purdue? Definitely pure speculation by some posters on this board. Now, as a legitimate 4* with Scout -- which has the toughest evaluators -- can we now put to rest this "redshirt" speculation?

If I have learned one thing from this board - nothing can ever be laid to rest.

 

[LionBulldog83]

Boiler Buck, have you seen Wheeler play in person? Where did you hear than he cannot play D? Certainly, MP will have his own approach to team/individual defensive schemes. But the idea that Wheeler is not a strong defender is pure fiction. I have watched enough live games as a fan of the New England Prep Basketball league, and Wheeler was one of the stronger defensive players on his 33-0 NEPSAC Championship team.

 

[tjreese]

We will be fine in scoring, but our biggest weakest will be our rebounding without Biggie and if we don't have another PF/C coming in especially after Haas & VE in 18/19 season.

Last year we average 37.7 rebound/gm with Biggie and ranked 6th (surprising, I know) in the B1G.

Team 16/17: Rebounds = 37.7; Team 17/18: Proj. Reb. (24.1 returning + 11 new = 35.1 total)
Biggie: 12.5, Haas: 7
Haas: 5, VE: 6
VE: 4.9, DM: 4
DM: 3.9, CE: 3
CE: 2.6, PJ: 2.1
PJ: 2.1, RC: 2
RC: 2, Haarms: 2.5 (He will play less if Taylor plays more)
Rest: 4.7, Eastern: 2.5
Wheeler: 2
Ewing: 3
Taylor: 1 (If he plays, Haarms will play less...)

I hope our newcomers do better, but this would put us 12th out of 14th B1G teams...This would worried me the MOST.

Stats from 16/17:

REB OFFENSE G REB AVG./G
1. Rutgers 33 1319 40.0
2. Minnesota 34 1341 39.4
3. Indiana 34 1326 39.0
4. Nebraska 30 1161 38.7
5. Iowa 34 1305 38.4
6. Purdue 35 1319 37.7
7. Ohio State 32 1192 37.3
8. Wisconsin 37 1376 37.2
9. Michigan State 35 1275 36.4
10. Northwestern 36 1304 36.2
11. Maryland 33 1172 35.5
12. Penn State 33 1169 35.4
13. Illinois 35 1217 34.8
14. Michigan 37 1082 29.2​

in fairness there were a few times that other Purdue players got out of the way so Biggie could get his, but generally I am concerned about board work. Haas is a little slow to go get them. Vince is outside a lot and harder to get the many boards. I think the guards have to help big time this year which can make you more vulnerable to 3's off the boards. Rebounding might be "a" main reason Eastern gets a lot of minutes...course it is unknown about Haam, Ewing and Wheeler..but the board work will need to be by committee it appears to me at this time. Then again, it can be improved on theoffensive end by not missing!

 

[tjreese]

If I have learned one thing from this board - nothing can ever be laid to rest.

did I tell you about the hidden advantages of a zone?

 

[boilerzz]

Boiler Buck, have you seen Wheeler play in person? Where did you hear than he cannot play D? Certainly, MP will have his own approach to team/individual defensive schemes. But the idea that Wheeler is not a strong defender is pure fiction. I have watched enough live games as a fan of the New England Prep Basketball league, and Wheeler was one of the stronger defensive players on his 33-0 NEPSAC Championship team.

Not Buck but I'll share my thoughts. Wheeler definitely has the physical tools to be a plus defender. But that tends to be the most difficult transition for incoming freshmen. Coach Painter puts a priority on players understanding and executing the team defensive principles.

From what I've seen of Wheeler, he may be a little too reliant on his athleticism early (much as Carsen Edwards was this year) and that is more difficult to rely on at the high major D1 level.

 

[BuilderBob6]

Still have to make the math work.
We have six guys coming back that will definitely play minutes, most of them significant minutes. As it stands now it looks like Ewing is going to play........and everyone agrees Eastern is going to get some time whether it be backing up the 1 or at the 3. That's 8 players, not including the possibility of Taylor or another 5.
All of us are intrigued by what Wheeler can bring to the team, but rankings mean little when they get on the floor. The staff will have to see how he adjusts to the college game.
The one thing we do know is that we will have a full roster......... minutes will be tough to come by for the young guys. They will have to be earned.

 

[Boiler Buck]

Boiler Buck, have you seen Wheeler play in person? Where did you hear than he cannot play D? Certainly, MP will have his own approach to team/individual defensive schemes. But the idea that Wheeler is not a strong defender is pure fiction. I have watched enough live games as a fan of the New England Prep Basketball league, and Wheeler was one of the stronger defensive players on his 33-0 NEPSAC Championship team.

Never said that he couldn't play D. Just a general comment I have on ALL freshmen. They as a group often have trouble playing D @ a Purdue level...and that becomes a limiting factor for PT. Simply don't play until they do @ Purdue. I remember Ryne Smith who was a disaster on D as a frosh....for example.

I have alot of confidence on Wheeler and was saying that he will score more than 4 ppg by far if he can play D @ a Purdue level.

Hope that is more clear.

 

[StickPurdue]

Still have to make the math work.
We have six guys coming back that will definitely play minutes, most of them significant minutes. As it stands now it looks like Ewing is going to play........and everyone agrees Eastern is going to get some time whether it be backing up the 1 or at the 3. That's 8 players, not including the possibility of Taylor or another 5.
All of us are intrigued by what Wheeler can bring to the team, but rankings mean little when they get on the floor. The staff will have to see how he adjusts to the college game.
The one thing we do know is that we will have a full roster......... minutes will be tough to come by for the young guys. They will have to be earned.

Agreed. You wouldn't want to redshirt Ewing, because he was brought in to play immediately (even though he was the signing I was least excited about). Wheeler could use some weight. If he adds it and can contribute on the defensive end, he will want to play immediately, or run the risk of transferring. Taylor is the biggest question mark. He will likely be competing for Ewing for time. Haarms will likely have a limited/nonexistent roll next year. Pj and Cline will likely lose minutes to Eastern. If we don't get an immediate impact player like Garrison Brooks, there will still be minutes for Wheeler to have as a backup to Vince/Dakota. I do not think Wheeler red shirting would a good thing, but it could happen just because of a lack of minutes. If wheeler impresses early, which he should, I imagine he finds his way onto the court.

 

[GS Thomas]

Haas will bump his scoring average considerably.

 

[Wolegib]

Next year will be an interesting year to see if Painter goes back to his tried and true method of having the offense focus and feed the big man. That method became very predictable and easy to defend against with a sagging zone. and we would have a lot of passes inside intercepted.

or if Painter re-invents the wheel and lets his guards bomb away and create their own shots and allowing Haas to get his points off put backs and rebounds.

Looking at three years of recruiting - the two previous , and the upcoming one, Painter appears to be changing his team make-up, and maybe it's style.

two years ago, his lone HS recruit was C Edwards. he tried to get a big man, but settled for a grad transfer Guard. this past year, he tried for JJJ and several other big men. But ultimately Eastern was his top player signed. And looking at his targets for 2018, the best ones are all guards. is it possible we are going to see a shift in styles? and our guards are going to lead the way?

 

[BuilderBob6]

Next year will be an interesting year to see if Painter goes back to his tried and true method of having the offense focus and feed the big man. That method became very predictable and easy to defend against with a sagging zone. and we would have a lot of passes inside intercepted.

or if Painter re-invents the wheel and lets his guards bomb away and create their own shots and allowing Haas to get his points off put backs and rebounds.

Looking at three years of recruiting - the two previous , and the upcoming one, Painter appears to be changing his team make-up, and maybe it's style.

two years ago, his lone HS recruit was C Edwards. he tried to get a big man, but settled for a grad transfer Guard. this past year, he tried for JJJ and several other big men. But ultimately Eastern was his top player signed. And looking at his targets for 2018, the best ones are all guards. is it possible we are going to see a shift in styles? and our guards are going to lead the way?

Painter will play to his strengths. IMO more balance between inside and out without Biggie. More penetration with Eastern and Mathias/Cline still expanding their games......and of course Carsen, who should be better with his decision making. Still will be a team who shoots a lot of threes......less from inside out and more from penetration and kickout. Probably go back to more of his traditional motion. Also think we will try to run more off misses, I see Painter wanting to do more of that.
Kind of see this year as a transition to a different offense next year when we could see big changes with our more athletic team.

 

[tjreese]

Agreed. You wouldn't want to redshirt Ewing, because he was brought in to play immediately (even though he was the signing I was least excited about). Wheeler could use some weight. If he adds it and can contribute on the defensive end, he will want to play immediately, or run the risk of transferring. Taylor is the biggest question mark. He will likely be competing for Ewing for time. Haarms will likely have a limited/nonexistent roll next year. Pj and Cline will likely lose minutes to Eastern. If we don't get an immediate impact player like Garrison Brooks, there will still be minutes for Wheeler to have as a backup to Vince/Dakota. I do not think Wheeler red shirting would a good thing, but it could happen just because of a lack of minutes. If wheeler impresses early, which he should, I imagine he finds his way onto the court.

What I don't understand is how so many believe that Haams will not be a contributor. I say that not having an idea what he will do and have not seen him in any kind or practice or competitive situation. He is 7'2" and skilled and could be a huge match up problem. If others have personal insight...I understand...but we are taling 7'2" skilled player that has some agility and can move a bit...in the game today where perimeter movement is not hindered much...

 

[tjreese]

Next year will be an interesting year to see if Painter goes back to his tried and true method of having the offense focus and feed the big man. That method became very predictable and easy to defend against with a sagging zone. and we would have a lot of passes inside intercepted.

or if Painter re-invents the wheel and lets his guards bomb away and create their own shots and allowing Haas to get his points off put backs and rebounds. ?

If there is nobody open inside and you are open on the outside...just hit the shot...don't make a bad pass. Basketball is a simple game. If you have the ability to get the ball deep, just don't make a bad pass. It really is about reading what is there. Now, I just don't see Haas getting any putbacks outside of missed layups. He is not quick enough to go get the ball...especially with any remotely long board. Purdue is what it is...use the strengths

 

[buffboiler]

Haarms will likely have a limited/nonexistent roll next year.

This, I think, is a flawed statement. He is not a tall stick standing around for rocks to come his way. From limited videos available, he looked pretty good. Wasn't there a post about him weighing around 230 lbs? He will have his minutes, at least 10 mpg.

Just my 2 cents.

 

[StickPurdue]

This, I think, is a flawed statement. He is not a tall stick standing around for rocks to come his way. From limited videos available, he looked pretty good. Wasn't there a post about him weighing around 230 lbs? He will have his minutes, at least 10 mpg.

Just my 2 cents.

I like Haarms a lot, but if we sign a player like Brooks, there just won't be available minutes. He is already going to have to battle Ewing and Taylor for minutes and it looks like Painter is looking for another Big to replace Biggie. If Biggie comes back, his roll will shrink even further. It isn't a nock on Haarms at all. It is just looking at minutes available. I think Painter signed Ewing as a juco to play right away, which is why I think he would get the nod. Taylor has been learning the system for years, so he also would have an advantage. Brooks is a rim protector and would skip to the front of the line. After Haas is gone, I think as it stands right now, Haarms is the future and the future is bright.

 

[nagemj02]

I always like to see Purdue have a deep roster. It ramps up the competition for PT to a very high level. The players that A. have the best practice habits B. play the best defense and C. produce (net positive plays) in games will be the ones that get the most minutes. Or I should say, the ones that can do all three of those things well will get more than their fair share of minutes.

If it ends up where players that played more MPG last year play less MPG this coming season, so be it. This is Purdue's best shot at a deep tourney run for the next 2 or 3 years, so any hurt feelings that may come along have to put be put aside for the greater good of the team. We want to see the Boilers beat the blue-bloods or any other top teams in the NCAA Tournament. To be the best, they'll have to beat the best at some point next season.

 

[proudopete]

I always like to see Purdue have a deep roster. It ramps up the competition for PT to a very high level. The players that A. have the best practice habits B. play the best defense and C. produce (net positive plays) in games will be the ones that get the most minutes. Or I should say, the ones that can do all three of those things well will get more than their fair share of minutes.

If it ends up where players that played more MPG last year play less MPG this coming season, so be it. This is Purdue's best shot at a deep tourney run for the next 2 or 3 years, so any hurt feelings that may come along have to put be put aside for the greater good of the team. We want to see the Boilers beat the blue-bloods or any other top teams in the NCAA Tournament. To be the best, they'll have to beat the best at some point next season.

Please, never change.

 

[nagemj02]

Please, never change.

I know it's sarcasm from you (and boilerzz) but don't worry. I will continue to think independently with no reservations about possibly "upsetting the apple cart" or not being a part of "the group mentality" with some of my thoughts and opinions. I try to aim for the truth, whether or not it's something flattering or unflattering about the men's basketball program.

 

[boilerzz]

I try to aim for the truth, whether or not it's something flattering or unflattering about the men's basketball prog

Truth is a very interesting word choice.