Let's keep this simple, and just focus in on IU and UM for the moment. We can leave Purdue initially, so you don't get confused and start calling things "homer". You seem to justify your position based a lot on what others say, but I think that is a flawed approach, especially in a basketball forum such as this. You need to make your own judgments, and I can understand if your judgments are different than mine. I prize independent thinking and rarely find it among those who parrot what the talking heads say.
UM finished 9th in the conference, losing most of their BIG games. They finished up losing 8 of 11 games at the end of the year. That is not playing well at the end of the year. I don't know where you get that opinion you stated as your lead argument on this matter. They had some kids "step up" because somebody gets the basketball and has to shoot it. The kids playing weren't terrible by any means, but they weren't great either. They might return as much as IU or Purdue, but they return a 9th place team, so WTF? Furthermore, I don't mean to imply they can't contend or improve next year. They might, but nothing has shown me they can. I just don't buy the hype for them. There is nothing to justify a top tier prediction, except that UM fans buy a lot of junk that says UM is great. Trust me on this, they are some of the neediest fans of any BIG team.
As for IU, you got to be kidding me, right? You ask me why I discount your 5-star while promoting mine? Well, I didn't do either. Did I mention Purdue's 5-star recruit, even once in my post? I think you have a dialog going in your head, and responded to that. I just contend that IU does not return a team that can be a contender. I don't disrespect your 5-star. I just don't think he'll make the impact you imagine.
Let's break this down. Purdue finishes in 3rd place, and returns almost the same team this year, but adds a 5-star center. Maryland, UW, MSU, & OSU all add 5-star players. IU returns a 7th place team and adds a 5-star player.
What makes you think your 5-star player is going to boost you over all the teams in front of you next year who recruited as well or better than IU did? Again, I am not buying the hype. IU has not shown me anything to think they will be a second tier contender next year.
Please re-watch the two Purdue-IU games from last year and you will quickly see the difference in the teams. It goes deeper than what shows on the score board. In the second game there were some great heroics by some of the IU players, but even that can't overcome fundamental problems with the way the IU team plays basketball. You return that same team. Adding a freshman center, and removing HMP in either of those game would not have changed the outcome, and the defeats would have been worse. You will note, so far my contention about these games does not require any puffery about Purdue's incoming freshmen class, the two best basketball players in the state of Indiana. I just don't see how IU or UM can be placed in the same level as MSU, Purdue and MU. Heck, given OSU's spectacular recruiting, I would place them ahead of IU for next year, if we were just going on rankings of individual players.
By the way, I see that like many of your basketball players, you confuse Meth with Math.