In the second of back to back contests away from home, Purdue travels up to Chicago to play in storied Wrigley Field and take on the Northwestern Wildcats. Someone make sure they bring a goat.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Northwestern Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Still waiting for Purdue’s Game Notes to be posted so will edit if necessary once those are publicized).
- After several weeks of facing larger lines, Purdue gets a smaller one as Northwestern comes in averaging 294.2 lbs. They also aren’t as experienced as a number of the teams Purdue’s recently faced (Illinois, Minnesota, MSU) with an average of 2.8 years of experience. Their size puts them well below average for the B10, their experience puts them slightly below average for the B10. Collectively, they will have just 80 starts among them. Their tackles and center are all multi-year starters with the two guards in their first year of starting roles (See below). Of note is that one of the guards (Priebe) left their game on Saturday and was seen on the sideline in a boot. Their center (Gerak) also left the game. Priebe did not appear on their 2-deep being replaced by Dom D’Antonio who’s a tad smaller but the same class and making his first start of his career.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. per man. That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Northwestern line by only 11.7 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 69 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers and PSU. They have a collective 55 starts between them.
- Purdue’s O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 118.
- Northwestern features a four man front scheme along the D-Line. For a traditional front, they still have one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 276.25 lbs, which is below the average in the B10. They also have very good experience as they come in with a 3.75 year average which is well above average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 29.75 lbs per man. Two of the four starters are multi-year starters but they apparently lost their most experienced DE (S. Miller, 42 starts) so starts between them is about average at 72. The replacement, Pooler, is a bit undersized for a DE at 250lbs so the Northwestern front may look more like a 3-4.
- Northwestern’s uses smaller LBs and they are the same size as OSU’s (which uses a DB as a LB) coming in at 225.67 lbs . They are below average sized for the B10. They do have decent experience with 3.33 years at the position which is slightly above the B10 average. Two of the three starters are new this season but Bergin is a multi-year starter so collective starts are still a little light at 53.
VegasInsider predicts Purdue by 11.0 points (Opened up at -12.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-17 Purdue win
Sagarin (Golden) predicts a 8.51 point Purdue win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 11.09 Purdue win.
ESPN FPI predicts a Purdue win probability at 82.5%
CollegeFootball News predicts a 30-17 Purdue win.
Athlon Sports predicts a 28-20 Purdue win (this demonstrates why I no longer buy their CFB yearbook)
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue..........................Northwestern
QB O’Connell NR..........Marty 2*/Hilinski 4* (SCAR)
RB Dorue 3*…...............Hull 2*
WR Wright 4*.................M. Washington 3* (DB)
WR Bell 4*............……..JJ Jefferson 3*
WR Anthrop 3*.............. Robinson Jr. 3* (Kansas)
TE Durham 3*.................Mangieri 3*
LT Long 2*......................Skoronski 4*
LG Witt 2*...................... Priebe 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Gerak 3*
RG Holstege 2*...............Schmidt 3*
RT Miller 3*......................Wiederkehr 3*
DE Jenkins 3*...................Adeawore 3*
DT Johnson 3*……….......Kent 3*
DT Dean 3*........................Meiser 2* (Old Dominion)
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............S. Miller 3*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ McIntyre 3*
LB Douglas 2* …….…........Gallagher 3*
LB Graham 3*...……….…..Bergin NR (DB)
CB Brown 3* (KY)..….........Mitchell 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Hampton 3*
FS Allen 3*......……....…......Azema 3*
SS Grant 4*..........................Joseph 3*
Purdue just visited the B10 Penthouse, now it’s headed to the opposite end of the spectrum as Northwestern is last in the B10 West, tied with Nebraska, at 1-6 (3-7 overall) with their only win over Rutgers earlier this season. FWIW, in their head-to-head, Nebraska ran roughshod over Northwestern in Week 5, winning 56-7.
In years past, Northwestern could always count on a stout defense to carry them through games when their offense wasn’t producing. Following the retirement of long time DC, Mike Hankawitz, following last season and roughly 8 new starters, the defense has been for the most part, less than stout.
Total Defense is ranked 95th nationally and 13th in the B10. Broken down, they are 125th and last in the league against the run but are 40th and 6th in the league in Pass Efficiency Defense. In the all-important Scoring Defense category, they drop to 72nd and 12th in the B10.
Red Zone Defense is a little better than average at 58th nationally and 8th in the B10 and they rank 44th nationally and 7th in the B10 in turnovers gained.
Arguably, the defense has actually improved as the season progressed, but is still not up to previous year’s standards.
As noted above, this group is one of the smaller units around. The front 7 is very light for a B10 team, the LBs are on the shorter side and only 1 DB, a Safety, tops the 6’ mark. Teams being able to run at the Wildcats may be the only thing keeping their Pass Defense respectable.
The flip side is that even with 8 new starters, the defense is an older unit especially the front 7 with 5 of them being Seniors/Grad level players. The DB unit does feature 3 Sophomores to go along with a lone Junior.
The question is whether the drop in productivity was due to the changeover of the Defensive Coordinator (hired from theOakland LA Oakland Las Vegas Raiders), the turnover of personnel or…..
perhaps the Northwestern Offense.
The Wildcats have matched Purdue for using three different QBs this season, but, unlike the Boilers, they’ve actually started all three.
Opening up the year was Clemson transfer and former 5* Hunter Johnson. Johnson was supposed to have been the heir apparent when he transferred and sat our the 2018 season, ready to take over the reins in 2019. Things did not go well and he was replaced. Family issues may have played a role in his poor play.
Of course, IU transfer Peyton Ramsey came in to lead the Wildcats last year, but his eligibility was exhausted and Coach Fitzgerald had to once again look for a starter for the 2021 season. In an unusual move, he publicly named Johnson weeks before the opener, possibly in an effort to bolster Johnson’s confidence. He lasted 2 ½ games. Enter Andrew Matty and he promptly gets hurt (has since returned) and Fitzgerald now turns to South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski. Hilinski didn’t provide the needed spark so once Matty healed up, he became the starter. He’s more in the mold of previous functional Northwestern QBs as he is mobile and presents the option to run the ball both in designated and in scramble situations. The trouble is he’s prone to turnovers (think Adrian Martinez-lite) to the point that he was pulled in their game last week against Wisconsin for Hilinski. There is speculation about which QB (or QBs Purdue may face this week as this week’s depth chart lists and “or”).
Running backs in the B10 West may think of themselves as an endangered species. The depletion of healthy running backs is well known at Wisconsin and Minnesota (and Purdue) but Northwestern also has taken their lumps as last year’s leading rusher, Cam Porter, was lost in Fall Camp. In his sted is Evan Hull who Fitzgerald did call RB 1b (Porter being 1a) in the preseason. He leads the ‘Cats with 791 yards on 127 attempts for a nice 6.2ypc average. Backing him up is Bowling Green transfer, Andrew Clair (252 yards on 46 carries, 5.5ypc).
The WR room also hasn’t been immune to injuries as Bryce Kirtz was lost in game 5. Their leading receiver now is Kansas transfer Robinson with 35 receptions for 489 yards (14.0ypc) Right behind him is Malik Washington with 34 receptions for 426 yards (12.5ypc). Their TE, Mangieri is little used and has just 8 receptions for 50 yards (6.2ypc) and 0 TDs.
This team has cracked 400+ yards of offense just three times this season and only once (402 yards) during B10 play (Rutgers). Over the past four games (Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin) the offense has scored exactly 4 times (they were shutout by Wisconsin, Northwestern’s lone score in that game was a fumble return).
They have amassed 42 “Long Plays” (20+ yards) with 26 coming against conference foes.
However, with all of their difficulties on offense, last week against Wisconsin, the Wildcats took the opening kickoff and marched down the field with impunityin a 19 play 82 yard drive. Only a Marty interception in the end zone kept them from scoring. As a reminder, Purdue had all they could handle against that same Badgers defense.
The one thing that Purdue needs to keep in mind is that, while wildly ineffective throughout much of the season, Northwestern can still put together some drives or break off an explosive play. In other words, they have a “puncher’s chance” in this game.
Defensively, Northwestern has taken that proverbial step backwards from where they have been in recent years. As mentioned, there’s been a new Defensive Coordinator along with 8+/- new starters. Also, as illustrated above, they are for the most part undersized for a B10 team. All of that adds up to some struggles although they have improved as the season has progressed.
Total Defense is ranked 95th nationally and 13th in the league. Broken down, they are 125th and last in Rush Defense while their Pass Efficiency Defense clocks in at 40th and 6th. Scoring Defense is 72nd and 8th, which tells me that they are a bit better holding teams out of the end zone than letting them gain yards. Red Zone Defense bears that up as they are ranked 58th and 8th in that category.
Their sack leaders are DE Adebawore (4.5) and DT Meiser (4.0) with reserve DE Pooler (3.5) right behind (Note: Pooler is scheduled to start in place of Miller at DE).
Northwestern is traditionally a well-disciplined team and this year is no exception. They rank 27th nationally and 6th in the league in both Penalties Per Game (4.3) and Penalty Yardage (48.8 yards). The yards per penalty (11.35) would seem to indicate slightly more 15 yard infractions (Pass Interference, etc.).
Purdue can put away that list of wins against Top 5 programs for the moment as they came crashing back down to early last Saturday, witnessing OSU hitting on all cylinders. Like Purdue was for Iowa and MSU, what OSU could do well was Purdue's Achille's heel. OSU’s cadre of WRs made life difficult for the two CBs that Purdue can put on the field. Trying to cover Olave, Wilson or Smith-Njigba is tough enough for a CB let alone with a Safety (Jefferson). It’s just not a winning matchup, no disrespect to Jefferson.
On the plus side, Purdue scored 31 (can’t believe Bell of all people dropped a TD) which matches Minnesota’s output against the Buckeyes in their opener and just 4 points behind Oregon’s scoring total, with those two games prior to OSU changing their defensive coordinator. Since then, the high water mark of points allowed was Penn State’s 24 points. And Purdue looked pretty comfortable on offense in the process.
At QB, O’Connell had another outstanding game, even in the loss, completing 40 of 52 passes for 390 yards, 4TDs (should have been 5) and 0 interceptions. Another plus: no sacks.
Purdue didn’t run much but ran enough to try and keep OSU honest. It’s a low bar, but Purdue had a good game and was able to gain 98 yards on 19 carries with Horvath, Anthrop and Bell all averaging over 7.0ypc. Only Doerue, 10 carries for 26 yards, was below that figure.
Based on Northwestern’s issues with stopping the run, I’d expect Purdue to look to run early and often and maybe double those numbers this week.
Team wise, Purdue’s Total Offense now ranks 58th nationally and 6th in the B10 (this is up from 72nd nationally just 3 weeks ago). Broken down, Rush Offense is 128th and last in the B10 while Pass Efficiency is 47th and 5th in the B10. Scoring Offense is 90th and 9th while Red Zone Offense is 75th and 6th.
O’Connell is tops in the league in Completion Percentage. Coming in 4th is Jack Plummer. AOC is also 2nd in Completions Per Game.
Bell leads the league in Receiving Yards and Receptions per game (even more amazing when you consider he was out for 1+ games).
Purdue continues to lead the League and rank 3rd in the nation in Fewest Penalties and Penalty Yards per game, averaging 3.9 and 35.6 yards respectively. The 9.12 yards per penalty average would seem to indicate more of the pre-snap (5 yard penalties) as opposed to the major infractions (15 yard penalties).
Defensively, Purdue’s lofty team rankings took a sizable hit following last week’s game. Total Defense is now 49th nationally and 6th in the league. Rush Defense fell to 75th nationally and 12th in the league. Pass Efficiency Defense dropped to 39th and 5th in the league.
Scoring Defense also took a hit, dropping to 41st nationally and 9th in the league. Red Zone Defense benefited from OSU scoring on big plays (e.g. outside the Red Zone) so it didn’t drop as far and now stands at 21st and 4th in the league.
Individually, George Karlaftis is 2nd in the league in Forced Fumbles and in Fumbles Recovered. Cam Allen leads the league in Interceptions.
What might be surprising is that TJ Shefield now ranks 3rd in the B10 and 28th nationally in Punt Return average (7.8 yards).
Perhaps the biggest positive which came out of last Saturday’s game is that it looks like all of the players made it through without major issues. Again, as noted earlier, Northwestern didn’t fare as well playing the Badgers and several of their linemen are reportedly out for that game.
Teams playing the second game of back to back road games often underperform due to the travel involved, the teams being a little less rested and the disruption of routine. So, that doesn’t necessarily bode well for Purdue although one could argue that playing at Wrigley is less of a road game for Purdue and is more of a neutral site.
On the flip side, traditionally, the week after a team has played Wisconsin, they tend to underperform due to the physical nature of Wisconsin’s play (and size) and being somewhat dinged up. That doesn’t necessarily bode well for Northwestern and we've already seen several players completely missing from the 2-deeps, odds are there are a number of others who will be less than 100%.
Northwestern is also now officially out of contention for a bowl game. It’s difficult to predict, but that fact could have an effect on player’s temperament, especially the Seniors, and could also impact personnel decisions by the coaches (e.g. playing reserves and younger players over starters). Players that haven’t been in more than 2 games could also now play without regard for burning their redshirt year.
Northwestern normally plays their home games on real grass as does Purdue, so neither team would seem to have an advantage playing in the friendly confines of Wrigley.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the high 40’s at kickoff. There is a 5% chance of rain. Winds should be light to moderate at 13 mph. For late November in Chicago, that's not too bad.
How 'bout them Boilers! Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Northwestern Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Still waiting for Purdue’s Game Notes to be posted so will edit if necessary once those are publicized).
- After several weeks of facing larger lines, Purdue gets a smaller one as Northwestern comes in averaging 294.2 lbs. They also aren’t as experienced as a number of the teams Purdue’s recently faced (Illinois, Minnesota, MSU) with an average of 2.8 years of experience. Their size puts them well below average for the B10, their experience puts them slightly below average for the B10. Collectively, they will have just 80 starts among them. Their tackles and center are all multi-year starters with the two guards in their first year of starting roles (See below). Of note is that one of the guards (Priebe) left their game on Saturday and was seen on the sideline in a boot. Their center (Gerak) also left the game. Priebe did not appear on their 2-deep being replaced by Dom D’Antonio who’s a tad smaller but the same class and making his first start of his career.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. per man. That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Northwestern line by only 11.7 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 69 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers and PSU. They have a collective 55 starts between them.
- Purdue’s O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Iowa. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 118.
- Northwestern features a four man front scheme along the D-Line. For a traditional front, they still have one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 276.25 lbs, which is below the average in the B10. They also have very good experience as they come in with a 3.75 year average which is well above average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 29.75 lbs per man. Two of the four starters are multi-year starters but they apparently lost their most experienced DE (S. Miller, 42 starts) so starts between them is about average at 72. The replacement, Pooler, is a bit undersized for a DE at 250lbs so the Northwestern front may look more like a 3-4.
- Northwestern’s uses smaller LBs and they are the same size as OSU’s (which uses a DB as a LB) coming in at 225.67 lbs . They are below average sized for the B10. They do have decent experience with 3.33 years at the position which is slightly above the B10 average. Two of the three starters are new this season but Bergin is a multi-year starter so collective starts are still a little light at 53.
VegasInsider predicts Purdue by 11.0 points (Opened up at -12.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-17 Purdue win
Sagarin (Golden) predicts a 8.51 point Purdue win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 11.09 Purdue win.
ESPN FPI predicts a Purdue win probability at 82.5%
CollegeFootball News predicts a 30-17 Purdue win.
Athlon Sports predicts a 28-20 Purdue win (this demonstrates why I no longer buy their CFB yearbook)
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue..........................Northwestern
QB O’Connell NR..........Marty 2*/Hilinski 4* (SCAR)
RB Dorue 3*…...............Hull 2*
WR Wright 4*.................M. Washington 3* (DB)
WR Bell 4*............……..JJ Jefferson 3*
WR Anthrop 3*.............. Robinson Jr. 3* (Kansas)
TE Durham 3*.................Mangieri 3*
LT Long 2*......................Skoronski 4*
LG Witt 2*...................... Priebe 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Gerak 3*
RG Holstege 2*...............Schmidt 3*
RT Miller 3*......................Wiederkehr 3*
DE Jenkins 3*...................Adeawore 3*
DT Johnson 3*……….......Kent 3*
DT Dean 3*........................Meiser 2* (Old Dominion)
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............S. Miller 3*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ McIntyre 3*
LB Douglas 2* …….…........Gallagher 3*
LB Graham 3*...……….…..Bergin NR (DB)
CB Brown 3* (KY)..….........Mitchell 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Hampton 3*
FS Allen 3*......……....…......Azema 3*
SS Grant 4*..........................Joseph 3*
Purdue just visited the B10 Penthouse, now it’s headed to the opposite end of the spectrum as Northwestern is last in the B10 West, tied with Nebraska, at 1-6 (3-7 overall) with their only win over Rutgers earlier this season. FWIW, in their head-to-head, Nebraska ran roughshod over Northwestern in Week 5, winning 56-7.
In years past, Northwestern could always count on a stout defense to carry them through games when their offense wasn’t producing. Following the retirement of long time DC, Mike Hankawitz, following last season and roughly 8 new starters, the defense has been for the most part, less than stout.
Total Defense is ranked 95th nationally and 13th in the B10. Broken down, they are 125th and last in the league against the run but are 40th and 6th in the league in Pass Efficiency Defense. In the all-important Scoring Defense category, they drop to 72nd and 12th in the B10.
Red Zone Defense is a little better than average at 58th nationally and 8th in the B10 and they rank 44th nationally and 7th in the B10 in turnovers gained.
Arguably, the defense has actually improved as the season progressed, but is still not up to previous year’s standards.
As noted above, this group is one of the smaller units around. The front 7 is very light for a B10 team, the LBs are on the shorter side and only 1 DB, a Safety, tops the 6’ mark. Teams being able to run at the Wildcats may be the only thing keeping their Pass Defense respectable.
The flip side is that even with 8 new starters, the defense is an older unit especially the front 7 with 5 of them being Seniors/Grad level players. The DB unit does feature 3 Sophomores to go along with a lone Junior.
The question is whether the drop in productivity was due to the changeover of the Defensive Coordinator (hired from the
perhaps the Northwestern Offense.
The Wildcats have matched Purdue for using three different QBs this season, but, unlike the Boilers, they’ve actually started all three.
Opening up the year was Clemson transfer and former 5* Hunter Johnson. Johnson was supposed to have been the heir apparent when he transferred and sat our the 2018 season, ready to take over the reins in 2019. Things did not go well and he was replaced. Family issues may have played a role in his poor play.
Of course, IU transfer Peyton Ramsey came in to lead the Wildcats last year, but his eligibility was exhausted and Coach Fitzgerald had to once again look for a starter for the 2021 season. In an unusual move, he publicly named Johnson weeks before the opener, possibly in an effort to bolster Johnson’s confidence. He lasted 2 ½ games. Enter Andrew Matty and he promptly gets hurt (has since returned) and Fitzgerald now turns to South Carolina transfer Ryan Hilinski. Hilinski didn’t provide the needed spark so once Matty healed up, he became the starter. He’s more in the mold of previous functional Northwestern QBs as he is mobile and presents the option to run the ball both in designated and in scramble situations. The trouble is he’s prone to turnovers (think Adrian Martinez-lite) to the point that he was pulled in their game last week against Wisconsin for Hilinski. There is speculation about which QB (or QBs Purdue may face this week as this week’s depth chart lists and “or”).
Running backs in the B10 West may think of themselves as an endangered species. The depletion of healthy running backs is well known at Wisconsin and Minnesota (and Purdue) but Northwestern also has taken their lumps as last year’s leading rusher, Cam Porter, was lost in Fall Camp. In his sted is Evan Hull who Fitzgerald did call RB 1b (Porter being 1a) in the preseason. He leads the ‘Cats with 791 yards on 127 attempts for a nice 6.2ypc average. Backing him up is Bowling Green transfer, Andrew Clair (252 yards on 46 carries, 5.5ypc).
The WR room also hasn’t been immune to injuries as Bryce Kirtz was lost in game 5. Their leading receiver now is Kansas transfer Robinson with 35 receptions for 489 yards (14.0ypc) Right behind him is Malik Washington with 34 receptions for 426 yards (12.5ypc). Their TE, Mangieri is little used and has just 8 receptions for 50 yards (6.2ypc) and 0 TDs.
This team has cracked 400+ yards of offense just three times this season and only once (402 yards) during B10 play (Rutgers). Over the past four games (Michigan, Minnesota, Iowa and Wisconsin) the offense has scored exactly 4 times (they were shutout by Wisconsin, Northwestern’s lone score in that game was a fumble return).
They have amassed 42 “Long Plays” (20+ yards) with 26 coming against conference foes.
However, with all of their difficulties on offense, last week against Wisconsin, the Wildcats took the opening kickoff and marched down the field with impunityin a 19 play 82 yard drive. Only a Marty interception in the end zone kept them from scoring. As a reminder, Purdue had all they could handle against that same Badgers defense.
The one thing that Purdue needs to keep in mind is that, while wildly ineffective throughout much of the season, Northwestern can still put together some drives or break off an explosive play. In other words, they have a “puncher’s chance” in this game.
Defensively, Northwestern has taken that proverbial step backwards from where they have been in recent years. As mentioned, there’s been a new Defensive Coordinator along with 8+/- new starters. Also, as illustrated above, they are for the most part undersized for a B10 team. All of that adds up to some struggles although they have improved as the season has progressed.
Total Defense is ranked 95th nationally and 13th in the league. Broken down, they are 125th and last in Rush Defense while their Pass Efficiency Defense clocks in at 40th and 6th. Scoring Defense is 72nd and 8th, which tells me that they are a bit better holding teams out of the end zone than letting them gain yards. Red Zone Defense bears that up as they are ranked 58th and 8th in that category.
Their sack leaders are DE Adebawore (4.5) and DT Meiser (4.0) with reserve DE Pooler (3.5) right behind (Note: Pooler is scheduled to start in place of Miller at DE).
Northwestern is traditionally a well-disciplined team and this year is no exception. They rank 27th nationally and 6th in the league in both Penalties Per Game (4.3) and Penalty Yardage (48.8 yards). The yards per penalty (11.35) would seem to indicate slightly more 15 yard infractions (Pass Interference, etc.).
Purdue can put away that list of wins against Top 5 programs for the moment as they came crashing back down to early last Saturday, witnessing OSU hitting on all cylinders. Like Purdue was for Iowa and MSU, what OSU could do well was Purdue's Achille's heel. OSU’s cadre of WRs made life difficult for the two CBs that Purdue can put on the field. Trying to cover Olave, Wilson or Smith-Njigba is tough enough for a CB let alone with a Safety (Jefferson). It’s just not a winning matchup, no disrespect to Jefferson.
On the plus side, Purdue scored 31 (can’t believe Bell of all people dropped a TD) which matches Minnesota’s output against the Buckeyes in their opener and just 4 points behind Oregon’s scoring total, with those two games prior to OSU changing their defensive coordinator. Since then, the high water mark of points allowed was Penn State’s 24 points. And Purdue looked pretty comfortable on offense in the process.
At QB, O’Connell had another outstanding game, even in the loss, completing 40 of 52 passes for 390 yards, 4TDs (should have been 5) and 0 interceptions. Another plus: no sacks.
Purdue didn’t run much but ran enough to try and keep OSU honest. It’s a low bar, but Purdue had a good game and was able to gain 98 yards on 19 carries with Horvath, Anthrop and Bell all averaging over 7.0ypc. Only Doerue, 10 carries for 26 yards, was below that figure.
Based on Northwestern’s issues with stopping the run, I’d expect Purdue to look to run early and often and maybe double those numbers this week.
Team wise, Purdue’s Total Offense now ranks 58th nationally and 6th in the B10 (this is up from 72nd nationally just 3 weeks ago). Broken down, Rush Offense is 128th and last in the B10 while Pass Efficiency is 47th and 5th in the B10. Scoring Offense is 90th and 9th while Red Zone Offense is 75th and 6th.
O’Connell is tops in the league in Completion Percentage. Coming in 4th is Jack Plummer. AOC is also 2nd in Completions Per Game.
Bell leads the league in Receiving Yards and Receptions per game (even more amazing when you consider he was out for 1+ games).
Purdue continues to lead the League and rank 3rd in the nation in Fewest Penalties and Penalty Yards per game, averaging 3.9 and 35.6 yards respectively. The 9.12 yards per penalty average would seem to indicate more of the pre-snap (5 yard penalties) as opposed to the major infractions (15 yard penalties).
Defensively, Purdue’s lofty team rankings took a sizable hit following last week’s game. Total Defense is now 49th nationally and 6th in the league. Rush Defense fell to 75th nationally and 12th in the league. Pass Efficiency Defense dropped to 39th and 5th in the league.
Scoring Defense also took a hit, dropping to 41st nationally and 9th in the league. Red Zone Defense benefited from OSU scoring on big plays (e.g. outside the Red Zone) so it didn’t drop as far and now stands at 21st and 4th in the league.
Individually, George Karlaftis is 2nd in the league in Forced Fumbles and in Fumbles Recovered. Cam Allen leads the league in Interceptions.
What might be surprising is that TJ Shefield now ranks 3rd in the B10 and 28th nationally in Punt Return average (7.8 yards).
Perhaps the biggest positive which came out of last Saturday’s game is that it looks like all of the players made it through without major issues. Again, as noted earlier, Northwestern didn’t fare as well playing the Badgers and several of their linemen are reportedly out for that game.
Teams playing the second game of back to back road games often underperform due to the travel involved, the teams being a little less rested and the disruption of routine. So, that doesn’t necessarily bode well for Purdue although one could argue that playing at Wrigley is less of a road game for Purdue and is more of a neutral site.
On the flip side, traditionally, the week after a team has played Wisconsin, they tend to underperform due to the physical nature of Wisconsin’s play (and size) and being somewhat dinged up. That doesn’t necessarily bode well for Northwestern and we've already seen several players completely missing from the 2-deeps, odds are there are a number of others who will be less than 100%.
Northwestern is also now officially out of contention for a bowl game. It’s difficult to predict, but that fact could have an effect on player’s temperament, especially the Seniors, and could also impact personnel decisions by the coaches (e.g. playing reserves and younger players over starters). Players that haven’t been in more than 2 games could also now play without regard for burning their redshirt year.
Northwestern normally plays their home games on real grass as does Purdue, so neither team would seem to have an advantage playing in the friendly confines of Wrigley.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be partly cloudy with temperatures in the high 40’s at kickoff. There is a 5% chance of rain. Winds should be light to moderate at 13 mph. For late November in Chicago, that's not too bad.
How 'bout them Boilers! Let’s play football!
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