Back in Ross-Ade, the Boilermakers find themselves in, for them, an enviable position facing a team ranked in the Top 5, Michigan State.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Michigan State Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. Purdue has released a 2-deep (first time in quite a while) so I have used those projected starters.
- Purdue will face, once again, a larger O-Line as Michigan State comes in averaging 315.0 lbs. To boot, they come in as one of the more experienced lines Purdue will face with an average of 3.8 years of experience (Right between Minnesota and Illinois). Their size puts them slightly above average for the B10, their experience puts them well above average for the B10. Collectively, they will have a very good 126 starts among them. Again, now quite where Minnesota or Illinois are, they will be ahead of any other of Purdue’s opponents. They essentially feature all three-year starters this year with no one player having fewer than 18 starts.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Michigan State line by about 32.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 61 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers and PSU. They have a collective 49 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Michigan State. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 108. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season. If Long can’t go and Cam Craig takes his place, the experience drops to 2.60 years but the size goes up by 2lbs to 308.0.
- Michigan State features a four man front scheme along the D-Line. For a traditional front, they still have one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 266.25 lbs, which is well below average in the B10. They do have decent experience as they come in with a 3.00 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 29.75 lbs per man. They have just a single true multi-year starter and while they still have a decent number of starts between them at 72, over half of those are by a single player (Panasiuk-38). Panasiuk’s status for Saturday is unclear as he suffered an injury in the 2nd half of their game against Michigan and did not return.
- Michigan State’s uses a Nickle back as one of their LBs but still come in at a decent 226.7 lbs . Like the DL, they are below average sized for the B10. They are also the youngest of the three units in terms of experience with 2.33 years at the position but has essentially only 1 multi-year starter so the collective starts are a very light at 29.
VegasInsider predicts Michigan State by 3.0 points (Opened up at -2.5 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-23 Michigan State win
Sagarin predicts a 2.15 point Michigan State win (his ‘Recent” ratings has MSU by 0.01 points)
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 3.72 point Purdue win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Michigan State
QB O’Connell NR..........Thorne 3*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Walker III 2* (Wake Forest)
WR Wright 4*.................Reed
WR Bell 4*............……….Nailor 3*
WR/TE Anthrop 3*........ Mosley 3*/Hunt NR
TE Durham 3*.................Heyward 3* (ATH)
LT Long 2*......................Horst NR (Arkansas State)
LG Witt 2*...................... Duplain 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Allen 2* (2016 Class)
RG Holstege 2*............... Jarvis 4*
RT Miller 3*.....................Arcuri 3* (2016 Class)
DE Jenkins 3*...................Panasiuk 3*
DT Johnson 3*……….....….Slade 3*
DT Dean 3*........................Barrow 3*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............Beesley*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Crouch 4* (Tennessee)
LB Douglas 2* …….…........Haladay 3*
LB/N Graham 3*...…….…..Snow 3*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..….........Williams 4* (Alabama)
CB Mackey 3*.....................Henderson 4*
FS Allen 3*......……....…........Grose 3*
SS Grant 4*..........................Kimbrough 4* (Florida)
Michigan State (aka University of Rico) comes into Saturday’s game fresh off a stunning comeback win against arch in-state rival Michigan, finds themselves #3 is the initial College Football Playoff rankings for 2021/22.
Absolutely abysmal in 2020 under 1st year coach Mel Tucker (although they did beat Michigan last year), most pundits picked the Spartans to be at the bottom of the B10 East standings this season.
In what should be considered the new “blueprint” for new coaches wanting to flip their program quickly, Tucker welcomed 41 new players to the Spartan roster during the off season, including 21 transfers, now immediately eligible. They’ve also taken advantage of the 2020 “mulligan” and have 9 Super Seniors on their roster. Room for those incoming players was made when 27 players off the 2020 roster entered their names in the transfer portal and left the program.
Compounding MSU’s issues last year were the fact that Tucker was hired late in the cycle as former coach, Mark Dantonio “retired” one day prior to the February signing date. Covid canceled Spring practice and made contact between the players and coaching staff difficult and limited development, the results of which manifested itself on the field.
Fast forward to the 2021 season and, with the influx of talent, chopping some dead wood out of the program and the coaches having an entire offseason with which to implement their schemes and “coach up” the team, you now see a 8-0 team with eyes focused on the winning the B10 as well as a College Playoff spot.
However, even though they are unbeaten, MSU hasn’t exactly blown the doors off their opponents this year. Opening the season on the road with a double digit win against Northwestern was a positive, until people realized just how bad Northwestern was going to be this season. Following a game against FCS Youngstown State, they traveled to a ranked (at the time) Miami team and won handily. Miami is currently a .500 club in the weak ACC. They eked out a 3 point OT win at Nebraska after not picking up a first down in the 2nd half of that game. They did manage back to back double digit wins against Western Kentucky and Rutgers but struggled to beat IU 20-15 scoring only a single offensive TD. Even last week against Michigan, they found themselves down 30-14 late in the 3nd quarter only to outscore UM 23-3 the remainder of the game, needing two 2-point conversions for the 3 point margin of victory.
In short, MSU has been playing on the brink of disaster but, to their credit, have continued to come out on the winning side. The question is how much longer can they keep pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat?
The star of the show is Wake Forest transfer running back, Kenneth Walker III. Going from a 2* recruit and backup at Wake (who’s also unbeaten this season) to Heisman front running in a single season is quite the accomplishment. A combination of speed and size, stopping him (containing him) will be Purdue’s #1 goal. This season, he’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry and 14 TDs. What’s also impressive is that in his 175 carries, he’s only lost 39 yards for a net of 1,194 through his 8 games (149.3/ypg).
MSU has tried to stay a bit balanced but they have only passed the ball less than 1/3 of their snaps from center. Their starter, Thorne, is completing 61.5% of those passes for 15 TDs and only 6 INTs. He averages 237.1 yards per game and has a 153.9 efficiency rating. His 8.9 yards per attempt and will use the play-action pass to complete downfield throws.
His favorite targets are Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor with 33 and 31 receptions respectively. The two are also pretty close in yardage (642 vs 587) and Average Yards per Reception (19.5 vs 18.9). These are MSU’s two deep threats although Nailor did leave the Michigan game with a cast/wrap around his hand so his status is questionable.
Statistically, the MSU offense is good but not close to being a juggernaut. Total Offense comes in ranked 34th nationally and 4th in the conference. Scoring Offense is a bit better at 29th nationally and 3rd in the conference. As much as Walker runs however, MSU is lower than one would expect only ranked 32nd nationally and 6th in the conference. While Thorne hasn’t thrown for a lot of yards, his personal efficiency rating cited above shows through as their Team Passing Efficiency is ranked 28th nationally and 3rd in the league.
Defensively, the younger players on that side of the ball have had a little more trouble. Total Defense is ranked 103rd nationally and 14th in the B10. Scoring Defense is much, much better at 29th (same as Scoring Offense) nationally but 9th in the league, which demonstrates the number of good defenses in the B10. Pass Efficiency Defense is a good 33rd nationally and 6th in the conference.
It’s difficult to reconcile the disparity between their Total Defense and Scoring Defense numbers with teams seemingly racking up a lot of yards but failing to score. You generally attribute this to a good Turnovers Gained number but, while it is good at 29th nationally and 2nd in conference, it doesn’t seem to be enough to account for the disparity. The other category you tend to look at in these cases is Red Zone Defense, and surprisingly, it’s below average at 76th nationally and 12th in the league. This one is a bit of a head scratcher which I don’t have an immediate explanation.
A tidbit about MSU's coaching staff: Two former Purdue assistants are currently on staff. Ross Els who served as DH2's DC on the 2016 team and Ted Gilmore who coached wide receivers under Tiller in 2001 and 2002.
For the second time this season, Purdue went on the road during the conference season as an underdog and came away with a (mostly) dominating win. Their running game showed a pulse and benefited from scheme (using Anthrop in the backfield) and personnel (Horvath returning). AOC was the “good” AOC, Purdue avoided any turnovers and forced the Cornhuskers into making critical mistakes of their own.
They now face another Top 5 team and have a chance to do something that they haven’t done since the 1960 season; beat two Top 5 teams in a single season while being unranked themselves. Here’s the list I compiled of the upsets by year:
1947 - #5 Illinois 14-7
1950 - #1 ND 28-14
1953 - #2 MSU 6-0
1957 - #1 MSU 20-13
1958 - #5 MSU 14-6
1960 - #3 OSU 24-21
1960 - #1 Minnesota 23-14
1961 - #5 Iowa 9-0
1964 - #5 Michigan 21-20
1970 - #3 Stanford 26-14
1974 - #2 ND 31-20
1976 - #1 Michigan 16-14
1984 - #2 OSU 28-23
2018 - #2 OSU 49-20
2021 - #2 Iowa 24-7
This time of year, every team has their share of nicks and dings when it comes to player’s health. From all reports, there don’t seem to be any additional injuries coming out of last week’s games. Just a matter of some players need to ease their way through the week and hopefully, OT Long returns (although Craig seemed to perform well in his place).
Having Horvath back, even in a limited capacity, helped Purdue crack the century mark on the ground for just the second time this season and first during conference play and probably shelved the three-headed QB hydra for the time being.
Nebraska’s defense isn't Wisconsin’s so WR Bell got back to being himself with 9 catches for 74 yards but a good day was turned in by all of the receivers with six players having at least 4 receptions or 20+ yards receiving (or both) on the day. Nebraska didn’t allow anything deep, but allowed a lot underneath as AOC finished with over a 75% completion rate.
Of course, Purdue’s defense was the real story, shutting down Nebraska until a late score in the second half. Purdue picked off Martinez four times in the game which was more than double the number he had thrown in their first 8 games. For his efforts, Jalen Graham was named B10 POW on defense. One of his two interceptions of course went for Purdue's first score of the day.
Statistically, Purdue is somewhat a mirror image of Michigan State. The Boilermaker Total Offense is ranked 79th nationally and 6th in the B10. Broken down, their Rushing Offense is near the bottom of 1A at 128th and last in the league. On the other hand, their Passing Offense is ranked 16th nationally and is #3 in the B10. Scoring Offense drops down again and is ranked 103rd nationally and 10th in the league. The offense’s troubles extend to the Red Zone where they’re also ranked 103rd nationally and 10th in the league. Passing Efficiency is a very average 68th nationally and 7th in the league.
Defense, like it is with MSU, is a different story. Total Defense has dropped a bit from recent weeks but is still high, ranked at #17 nationally and 5th in the B10. Scoring Defense is even better at 10th nationally and 4th in the B10. Breaking it down, Rush Defense comes back to earth a bit as it’s ranked 54th nationally and 9th in the B10. Pass Efficiency Defense is very good ranked at #8 nationally and 3rd in the league.
One item which I have been impressed with is how Purdue has performed in hostile environments (ND, Iowa, Nebraska) and been able to avoid those offensive pre-snap penalties which so often kill drives or defensive penalties which keep them on the field. I don’t have the exact breakdown of pre-snap infractions but Purdue as a whole has done quite well in that area. Purdue is ranked 4th in the nation and tops in the B10 in Penalties Per Game averaging just 4 and 8th in the nation and again, tops in the B10 in Fewest Penalty Yards/Game with 37.5 per game. Add in that this is not some Senior-laden team chock full of players who’ve been through the battles and those numbers are even more impressive.
Like Iowa when Purdue played them, Michigan State is coming off a huge emotional win. Perhaps even more so as it was their in-state rival. Even with Tucker’s pronouncement that this won’t be a trap game for MSU (and rattling off Purdue’s wins over Top 5 programs in his press conference), it’s hard to keep “up” week after week. Unlike the Iowa game, Purdue gets to play this one at home.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the mid 50’s at kickoff. Winds should be light at 10-12 mph. Perfect day for agame upset.
Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Michigan State Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. Purdue has released a 2-deep (first time in quite a while) so I have used those projected starters.
- Purdue will face, once again, a larger O-Line as Michigan State comes in averaging 315.0 lbs. To boot, they come in as one of the more experienced lines Purdue will face with an average of 3.8 years of experience (Right between Minnesota and Illinois). Their size puts them slightly above average for the B10, their experience puts them well above average for the B10. Collectively, they will have a very good 126 starts among them. Again, now quite where Minnesota or Illinois are, they will be ahead of any other of Purdue’s opponents. They essentially feature all three-year starters this year with no one player having fewer than 18 starts.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Michigan State line by about 32.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 61 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers and PSU. They have a collective 49 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Michigan State. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 108. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season. If Long can’t go and Cam Craig takes his place, the experience drops to 2.60 years but the size goes up by 2lbs to 308.0.
- Michigan State features a four man front scheme along the D-Line. For a traditional front, they still have one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 266.25 lbs, which is well below average in the B10. They do have decent experience as they come in with a 3.00 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 29.75 lbs per man. They have just a single true multi-year starter and while they still have a decent number of starts between them at 72, over half of those are by a single player (Panasiuk-38). Panasiuk’s status for Saturday is unclear as he suffered an injury in the 2nd half of their game against Michigan and did not return.
- Michigan State’s uses a Nickle back as one of their LBs but still come in at a decent 226.7 lbs . Like the DL, they are below average sized for the B10. They are also the youngest of the three units in terms of experience with 2.33 years at the position but has essentially only 1 multi-year starter so the collective starts are a very light at 29.
VegasInsider predicts Michigan State by 3.0 points (Opened up at -2.5 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-23 Michigan State win
Sagarin predicts a 2.15 point Michigan State win (his ‘Recent” ratings has MSU by 0.01 points)
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 3.72 point Purdue win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Michigan State
QB O’Connell NR..........Thorne 3*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Walker III 2* (Wake Forest)
WR Wright 4*.................Reed
WR Bell 4*............……….Nailor 3*
WR/TE Anthrop 3*........ Mosley 3*/Hunt NR
TE Durham 3*.................Heyward 3* (ATH)
LT Long 2*......................Horst NR (Arkansas State)
LG Witt 2*...................... Duplain 3*
C Hartwig 4*................... Allen 2* (2016 Class)
RG Holstege 2*............... Jarvis 4*
RT Miller 3*.....................Arcuri 3* (2016 Class)
DE Jenkins 3*...................Panasiuk 3*
DT Johnson 3*……….....….Slade 3*
DT Dean 3*........................Barrow 3*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............Beesley*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Crouch 4* (Tennessee)
LB Douglas 2* …….…........Haladay 3*
LB/N Graham 3*...…….…..Snow 3*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..….........Williams 4* (Alabama)
CB Mackey 3*.....................Henderson 4*
FS Allen 3*......……....…........Grose 3*
SS Grant 4*..........................Kimbrough 4* (Florida)
Michigan State (aka University of Rico) comes into Saturday’s game fresh off a stunning comeback win against arch in-state rival Michigan, finds themselves #3 is the initial College Football Playoff rankings for 2021/22.
Absolutely abysmal in 2020 under 1st year coach Mel Tucker (although they did beat Michigan last year), most pundits picked the Spartans to be at the bottom of the B10 East standings this season.
In what should be considered the new “blueprint” for new coaches wanting to flip their program quickly, Tucker welcomed 41 new players to the Spartan roster during the off season, including 21 transfers, now immediately eligible. They’ve also taken advantage of the 2020 “mulligan” and have 9 Super Seniors on their roster. Room for those incoming players was made when 27 players off the 2020 roster entered their names in the transfer portal and left the program.
Compounding MSU’s issues last year were the fact that Tucker was hired late in the cycle as former coach, Mark Dantonio “retired” one day prior to the February signing date. Covid canceled Spring practice and made contact between the players and coaching staff difficult and limited development, the results of which manifested itself on the field.
Fast forward to the 2021 season and, with the influx of talent, chopping some dead wood out of the program and the coaches having an entire offseason with which to implement their schemes and “coach up” the team, you now see a 8-0 team with eyes focused on the winning the B10 as well as a College Playoff spot.
However, even though they are unbeaten, MSU hasn’t exactly blown the doors off their opponents this year. Opening the season on the road with a double digit win against Northwestern was a positive, until people realized just how bad Northwestern was going to be this season. Following a game against FCS Youngstown State, they traveled to a ranked (at the time) Miami team and won handily. Miami is currently a .500 club in the weak ACC. They eked out a 3 point OT win at Nebraska after not picking up a first down in the 2nd half of that game. They did manage back to back double digit wins against Western Kentucky and Rutgers but struggled to beat IU 20-15 scoring only a single offensive TD. Even last week against Michigan, they found themselves down 30-14 late in the 3nd quarter only to outscore UM 23-3 the remainder of the game, needing two 2-point conversions for the 3 point margin of victory.
In short, MSU has been playing on the brink of disaster but, to their credit, have continued to come out on the winning side. The question is how much longer can they keep pulling the proverbial rabbit out of the hat?
The star of the show is Wake Forest transfer running back, Kenneth Walker III. Going from a 2* recruit and backup at Wake (who’s also unbeaten this season) to Heisman front running in a single season is quite the accomplishment. A combination of speed and size, stopping him (containing him) will be Purdue’s #1 goal. This season, he’s averaging 6.8 yards per carry and 14 TDs. What’s also impressive is that in his 175 carries, he’s only lost 39 yards for a net of 1,194 through his 8 games (149.3/ypg).
MSU has tried to stay a bit balanced but they have only passed the ball less than 1/3 of their snaps from center. Their starter, Thorne, is completing 61.5% of those passes for 15 TDs and only 6 INTs. He averages 237.1 yards per game and has a 153.9 efficiency rating. His 8.9 yards per attempt and will use the play-action pass to complete downfield throws.
His favorite targets are Jayden Reed and Jalen Nailor with 33 and 31 receptions respectively. The two are also pretty close in yardage (642 vs 587) and Average Yards per Reception (19.5 vs 18.9). These are MSU’s two deep threats although Nailor did leave the Michigan game with a cast/wrap around his hand so his status is questionable.
Statistically, the MSU offense is good but not close to being a juggernaut. Total Offense comes in ranked 34th nationally and 4th in the conference. Scoring Offense is a bit better at 29th nationally and 3rd in the conference. As much as Walker runs however, MSU is lower than one would expect only ranked 32nd nationally and 6th in the conference. While Thorne hasn’t thrown for a lot of yards, his personal efficiency rating cited above shows through as their Team Passing Efficiency is ranked 28th nationally and 3rd in the league.
Defensively, the younger players on that side of the ball have had a little more trouble. Total Defense is ranked 103rd nationally and 14th in the B10. Scoring Defense is much, much better at 29th (same as Scoring Offense) nationally but 9th in the league, which demonstrates the number of good defenses in the B10. Pass Efficiency Defense is a good 33rd nationally and 6th in the conference.
It’s difficult to reconcile the disparity between their Total Defense and Scoring Defense numbers with teams seemingly racking up a lot of yards but failing to score. You generally attribute this to a good Turnovers Gained number but, while it is good at 29th nationally and 2nd in conference, it doesn’t seem to be enough to account for the disparity. The other category you tend to look at in these cases is Red Zone Defense, and surprisingly, it’s below average at 76th nationally and 12th in the league. This one is a bit of a head scratcher which I don’t have an immediate explanation.
A tidbit about MSU's coaching staff: Two former Purdue assistants are currently on staff. Ross Els who served as DH2's DC on the 2016 team and Ted Gilmore who coached wide receivers under Tiller in 2001 and 2002.
For the second time this season, Purdue went on the road during the conference season as an underdog and came away with a (mostly) dominating win. Their running game showed a pulse and benefited from scheme (using Anthrop in the backfield) and personnel (Horvath returning). AOC was the “good” AOC, Purdue avoided any turnovers and forced the Cornhuskers into making critical mistakes of their own.
They now face another Top 5 team and have a chance to do something that they haven’t done since the 1960 season; beat two Top 5 teams in a single season while being unranked themselves. Here’s the list I compiled of the upsets by year:
1947 - #5 Illinois 14-7
1950 - #1 ND 28-14
1953 - #2 MSU 6-0
1957 - #1 MSU 20-13
1958 - #5 MSU 14-6
1960 - #3 OSU 24-21
1960 - #1 Minnesota 23-14
1961 - #5 Iowa 9-0
1964 - #5 Michigan 21-20
1970 - #3 Stanford 26-14
1974 - #2 ND 31-20
1976 - #1 Michigan 16-14
1984 - #2 OSU 28-23
2018 - #2 OSU 49-20
2021 - #2 Iowa 24-7
This time of year, every team has their share of nicks and dings when it comes to player’s health. From all reports, there don’t seem to be any additional injuries coming out of last week’s games. Just a matter of some players need to ease their way through the week and hopefully, OT Long returns (although Craig seemed to perform well in his place).
Having Horvath back, even in a limited capacity, helped Purdue crack the century mark on the ground for just the second time this season and first during conference play and probably shelved the three-headed QB hydra for the time being.
Nebraska’s defense isn't Wisconsin’s so WR Bell got back to being himself with 9 catches for 74 yards but a good day was turned in by all of the receivers with six players having at least 4 receptions or 20+ yards receiving (or both) on the day. Nebraska didn’t allow anything deep, but allowed a lot underneath as AOC finished with over a 75% completion rate.
Of course, Purdue’s defense was the real story, shutting down Nebraska until a late score in the second half. Purdue picked off Martinez four times in the game which was more than double the number he had thrown in their first 8 games. For his efforts, Jalen Graham was named B10 POW on defense. One of his two interceptions of course went for Purdue's first score of the day.
Statistically, Purdue is somewhat a mirror image of Michigan State. The Boilermaker Total Offense is ranked 79th nationally and 6th in the B10. Broken down, their Rushing Offense is near the bottom of 1A at 128th and last in the league. On the other hand, their Passing Offense is ranked 16th nationally and is #3 in the B10. Scoring Offense drops down again and is ranked 103rd nationally and 10th in the league. The offense’s troubles extend to the Red Zone where they’re also ranked 103rd nationally and 10th in the league. Passing Efficiency is a very average 68th nationally and 7th in the league.
Defense, like it is with MSU, is a different story. Total Defense has dropped a bit from recent weeks but is still high, ranked at #17 nationally and 5th in the B10. Scoring Defense is even better at 10th nationally and 4th in the B10. Breaking it down, Rush Defense comes back to earth a bit as it’s ranked 54th nationally and 9th in the B10. Pass Efficiency Defense is very good ranked at #8 nationally and 3rd in the league.
One item which I have been impressed with is how Purdue has performed in hostile environments (ND, Iowa, Nebraska) and been able to avoid those offensive pre-snap penalties which so often kill drives or defensive penalties which keep them on the field. I don’t have the exact breakdown of pre-snap infractions but Purdue as a whole has done quite well in that area. Purdue is ranked 4th in the nation and tops in the B10 in Penalties Per Game averaging just 4 and 8th in the nation and again, tops in the B10 in Fewest Penalty Yards/Game with 37.5 per game. Add in that this is not some Senior-laden team chock full of players who’ve been through the battles and those numbers are even more impressive.
Like Iowa when Purdue played them, Michigan State is coming off a huge emotional win. Perhaps even more so as it was their in-state rival. Even with Tucker’s pronouncement that this won’t be a trap game for MSU (and rattling off Purdue’s wins over Top 5 programs in his press conference), it’s hard to keep “up” week after week. Unlike the Iowa game, Purdue gets to play this one at home.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the mid 50’s at kickoff. Winds should be light at 10-12 mph. Perfect day for a
Let’s play football!
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