Greetings from the bowels of Mackey Arena, where Purdue plays its biggest game of the season until its next biggest game of the season, tonight vs. 13th-ranked Illinois.
The Boilermakers win and they're tied for first place in the Big Ten, fully out of the hole that came from a 1-2 conference start. The Boilermakers lose and they're two games back of the Illini.
Enormous game on multiple fronts.
The first meeting between these two teams was one for the ages, the game of the year to this point in the Big Ten, but didn't need to be.
I'm going to keep going back to this ... that game went to double overtime because Purdue only scored 69 points in regulation despite executing offensively at a level that easily could have yielded 75-plus. There's simply no explaining the misses from Trevion Williams, ideal shots he's made 70-plus-percent on, probably, in his career.
Meanwhile, not only did Kofi Cockburn's foul trouble throw Purdue's defensive game plan out the window but also let Illinois trade two-point shots for three-point shots.
Every game is different — so pointing these things out now only matters so much — but those two dynamics, to me, account for what might have been 10-15-point swing if things play out just a little differently.
Purdue barely won that game, but Purdue was the better team, despite being caught with its pants down against a suddenly red-hot Andre Curbelo, who's probably just as likely to be bad tonight as he is that level of good. He's a really streaky player.
People are going to be fixated on Curbelo tonight, but it's Trent Frazier they should be most worried about. That dude is a killer, and if I recall correctly, the last time he played here, he made six threes. He's the guy Purdue has to stop, maybe even more so that Kofi Cockburn, who you'd better believe is coming for Zach Edey's head tonight after Edey worked him over in Champaign.
If I were a Purdue fan, Illinois would scare the hell out of me competitively. They're really good, and their backcourt averages 23.3 years old, reminding of how absurd this COVID year stuff is. College basketball is supposed to be played by kids. Illinois' starting five averages 23 years old.
Illinois' capability to make a ton of threes would scare the hell out of me. I was actually going to write a thinkpiece today on three-point defense, sat down to figure it out and couldn't come up with a coherent opening thought so I scrapped it. But this is the game where Purdue most has to be disruptive at the arc, but also in disrupting the operation that leads to those looks. Gotta be good against the dribble, which Purdue isn't always.
A few more thoughts ...
• I spent some today researching Jaden Ivey's usage lately, because it feels like he's getting more high ball screens to just let him cook. It's been 20 possessions the past two games with him as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which isn't all that much more than his general season standard, but still it feels like he's being leaned on more, as he should be.
If I'm Purdue, I'm spending the bulk of the evening tonight putting Kofi Cockburn in dribble hand-offs and ball screens, to try to get Ivey the corner and Cockburn running around like a chicken — pun intended — with his head cut off. Get him the hell out of rebounding position, for one thing.
Ivey's a markedly better player today than he was just a few weeks ago when these two teams first met, but I'll say this, too: I don't know if this is a game where Purdue can afford for him to go 0-for-6 from three like he did last time out.
• The offensive glass. Don't be surprised if the winner of this column wins the game. It's a strength for both, and in Champaign, Purdue knee-capped Illinois' strength, though playing so many minutes without Cockburn was part of it. But he still had only one offensive rebound in 27 minutes.
• Shoot well and play hard. Duh.
To the first point, Purdue was just 5-of-18 from three against Michigan. I think that was just the fickleness of three-point shooting and an off night from Ivey, but that needs to be a strength for the Boilermakers in games of this magnitude.
Sasha Stefanovic is going to be Public Enemy No. 1 for Illinois tonight, so Purdue's really going to have to work to get him shots, but also might be able to use him as the red herring that gets other people shots.
Calling Mason Gillis.
To the second point, Purdue has long had a history of just steamrolling people in environments like this tonight. It hasn't happened since Big Ten play resumed. Florida State and Iowa were the last times Purdue really curb-stomped someone in Mackey.
I bring this up because Illinois is going to play its you-know-what off tonight. They're built that way, with that sort of player. Purdue could do more in that area, I think.
Anyway, that's what I've got.
Follow along here or on Twitter at @brianneubert
Full coverage to come tonight, in the middle of the night, basically.
The Boilermakers win and they're tied for first place in the Big Ten, fully out of the hole that came from a 1-2 conference start. The Boilermakers lose and they're two games back of the Illini.
Enormous game on multiple fronts.
The first meeting between these two teams was one for the ages, the game of the year to this point in the Big Ten, but didn't need to be.
I'm going to keep going back to this ... that game went to double overtime because Purdue only scored 69 points in regulation despite executing offensively at a level that easily could have yielded 75-plus. There's simply no explaining the misses from Trevion Williams, ideal shots he's made 70-plus-percent on, probably, in his career.
Meanwhile, not only did Kofi Cockburn's foul trouble throw Purdue's defensive game plan out the window but also let Illinois trade two-point shots for three-point shots.
Every game is different — so pointing these things out now only matters so much — but those two dynamics, to me, account for what might have been 10-15-point swing if things play out just a little differently.
Purdue barely won that game, but Purdue was the better team, despite being caught with its pants down against a suddenly red-hot Andre Curbelo, who's probably just as likely to be bad tonight as he is that level of good. He's a really streaky player.
People are going to be fixated on Curbelo tonight, but it's Trent Frazier they should be most worried about. That dude is a killer, and if I recall correctly, the last time he played here, he made six threes. He's the guy Purdue has to stop, maybe even more so that Kofi Cockburn, who you'd better believe is coming for Zach Edey's head tonight after Edey worked him over in Champaign.
If I were a Purdue fan, Illinois would scare the hell out of me competitively. They're really good, and their backcourt averages 23.3 years old, reminding of how absurd this COVID year stuff is. College basketball is supposed to be played by kids. Illinois' starting five averages 23 years old.
Illinois' capability to make a ton of threes would scare the hell out of me. I was actually going to write a thinkpiece today on three-point defense, sat down to figure it out and couldn't come up with a coherent opening thought so I scrapped it. But this is the game where Purdue most has to be disruptive at the arc, but also in disrupting the operation that leads to those looks. Gotta be good against the dribble, which Purdue isn't always.
A few more thoughts ...
• I spent some today researching Jaden Ivey's usage lately, because it feels like he's getting more high ball screens to just let him cook. It's been 20 possessions the past two games with him as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, which isn't all that much more than his general season standard, but still it feels like he's being leaned on more, as he should be.
If I'm Purdue, I'm spending the bulk of the evening tonight putting Kofi Cockburn in dribble hand-offs and ball screens, to try to get Ivey the corner and Cockburn running around like a chicken — pun intended — with his head cut off. Get him the hell out of rebounding position, for one thing.
Ivey's a markedly better player today than he was just a few weeks ago when these two teams first met, but I'll say this, too: I don't know if this is a game where Purdue can afford for him to go 0-for-6 from three like he did last time out.
• The offensive glass. Don't be surprised if the winner of this column wins the game. It's a strength for both, and in Champaign, Purdue knee-capped Illinois' strength, though playing so many minutes without Cockburn was part of it. But he still had only one offensive rebound in 27 minutes.
• Shoot well and play hard. Duh.
To the first point, Purdue was just 5-of-18 from three against Michigan. I think that was just the fickleness of three-point shooting and an off night from Ivey, but that needs to be a strength for the Boilermakers in games of this magnitude.
Sasha Stefanovic is going to be Public Enemy No. 1 for Illinois tonight, so Purdue's really going to have to work to get him shots, but also might be able to use him as the red herring that gets other people shots.
Calling Mason Gillis.
To the second point, Purdue has long had a history of just steamrolling people in environments like this tonight. It hasn't happened since Big Ten play resumed. Florida State and Iowa were the last times Purdue really curb-stomped someone in Mackey.
I bring this up because Illinois is going to play its you-know-what off tonight. They're built that way, with that sort of player. Purdue could do more in that area, I think.
Anyway, that's what I've got.
Follow along here or on Twitter at @brianneubert
Full coverage to come tonight, in the middle of the night, basically.
