Welcome to the third year, second edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience arguably the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to the next. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since then, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day; I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive unknown. But one thing is for sure: sports gambling is here to stay, and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 UConn Huskies.
Week 1 RECAP:
The Column goes 2-1 as the Boilers cover -7 (Payne Durham, I know you slowed down and thought about taking a knee at the 1 to just kill the clock, but if NIL permits me, I owe you a couple beers for crossing that goal line my man). If you were sitting by me at the game, you heard me begging for Oregon State to go for two and miss so the Boilers could have gotten a clean, ten point victory so the column would have nailed the margin of victory. Nevertheless, we will take the one point difference. The over got some hopes up late, but was virtually dead at halftime thanks to the Boilers obsession with redzone turnovers and The Oregon State QB really just being awful. Brohm’s offense and the rain (or rainy conditions) are still foes. MSU was a nice Friday night rocking chair win as the Spartans stayed in control wire-to-wire.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 1-0 ATS, Overs are 0-1.
UConn: 0-2 ATS, Overs are 1-1. UConn failed to cover as three point favorites versus Holy Cross, losing outright 38-28, over 49.5 hit, and failed to cover as 28 point underdogs against Fresno State, under 63.5 hit.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:30am on 9/10/21:
Current spread: Purdue -34.5 (Opened -27.5),
1H Spread: Purdue -21, O/U 31
Over/Under: 58 (Opened 56)
Bets: 77% on Purdue, 50% on over
Money: 83% on Purdue, 62% on over
UConn O/U: 12 (Currently N/A, numbers based on Vegas projections)
Purdue O/U: 46 (Currently N/A, numbers based on Vegas projections)
Jeff Brohm vs. UConn: 0-0
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -200. As of Week 2, this number is now 80/1. Vegas was extremely impressed with Ohio State, so all odds increased with the exception of Penn State and Iowa.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Wisconsin is the current favorite at -115. As of Week 2, this number is now at 20/1. I personally envisioned this moving a little more with every Big Ten West team losing except Iowa. Wisconsin and Iowa are now tied as favorites at +110.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at 2.6/1. As of Week 2, this number is now 400/1. While it may seem surprising for Purdue to win and the odds get longer, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State all significantly increased their odds.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 2, Purdue is off to the start needed if you are an over backer. You should be almost halfway home after this week.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move but the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for UConn:
· Purdue under Brohm is 3-6 ATS as an away favorite. Brohm is almost always a must play as an underdog and a must fade as a favorite. Purdue failed to cover in its last two games as an away favorite losing to Minnesota outright and failing to cover at Illinois. I will not go into detail about this Minnesota game, as I stated last week, but given that every sportsbook in America graded this bet null due to the most asinine call I have ever seen in sports, I feel it should not be counted. I digress. If you recall correctly, Illinois was a game where people expected Purdue to come in a thump the Illini after the Illini were destroyed on national TV by Wisconsin. Purdue won by 7, but the game certainly felt closer than that. In 2019, Purdue was only an away favorite one time, opening the season by failing to cover at Nevada.
· Purdue is 10-8 ATS under Brohm after a Purdue win. Purdue failed to cover in both of their games last season after wins. Illinois has already been discussed, but the Boilers also failed to cover against Northwestern after beating Illinois. Purdue covers the spread on average by 1.4 points after a win.
· After last week, Purdue is now 8-4 ATS in non-conference games under Jeff Brohm. This trend was put on a hiatus last year with the conference only schedule, so we must revisit 2019. The Boilers failed to cover in two of the three non-conference games. Purdue blew a cover against Nevada, and then proceeded to absolutely steamroll a very bad Vanderbilt team. The following week, under the lights, Purdue played as the nail as the TCU hammer won convincingly. Take out 2019, and Brohm boasts a 7-2 (including 2021) ATS record against non-conference opponents.
· In games where Purdue is an away favorite under Brohm, the total has gone under six out of the last nine games. This occurred most recently when the under successfully cashed against Illinois, while the over hit in the Minnesota game. The over also hit in Purdue’s lone game as an away favorite in 2019 against Nevada.
· UConn is now coached by Lou Spanos. While it is almost impossible to accurately use trends with the first game for an interim coach, I will still use Randy Edsall as the trend. However, take it with a grain of salt. UConn is 6-8 ATS under Edsall as a home underdog. They have failed to cover on average by 6.3 points in these spots and they have lost these games outright by an average of 23.7 points.
· After a Connecticut loss under Edsall, UConn is 10-18 ATS. UConn has lost these games on average by 21.9 points and has failed to cover on average by 3.3 points.
· Overall, UConn was 13-25 ATS in games under Edsall. While ATS does not measure program success, I can comfortably assume that a majority of those games were with UConn as an underdog.
· Under Coach Edsall, overs are 5-9 when UConn is a home favorite.
· The over is 16-12 under Edsall after a loss by the Huskies. The over has on average by 5.3 points.
· Purdue is 0-7 straight up in its last 7 games against Independents. Obviously this statistic is skewed because it is all Notre Dame. However, I thought it was a fun fact and hopefully we have reached the end of this Independent skid.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· The Boilers? In New England? It is certainly a rarity for the Boilers to travel up to the great northeast. Obviously less so after adding Rutgers to the conference, but for many, this is still relatively uncharted territory. As Alan already stated, this will be the first time since 1947 that the Boilers will be playing in NE. While Austin Burton may certainly feel at home (and hopefully gets some blow out playing time!), not sure the Boilers will. The crowd may end up being more Boilers than Huskies. The first true out of conference road game for your freshman and sophomores still presents an interesting test for the Boilers.
· So, what exactly is going on at UConn? Randy Edsall announced a retirement at the end of the season, to which he abruptly cut even shorter a day later. Videos from the game against Holy Cross show a team who had clearly quit. Were there issues in the UConn locker room that remain unknown? If so, there is certainly the chance Edsall’s leaving provides a boost in morale and maybe even in play at UConn. There is no question the talent at UConn is lacking, but this may be an inspired team this week. Lou Spanos has NFL experience, but not sure how much a difference he can make.
· Weather looks to be a non-factor. 72 and partly cloudy in Mansfield, Connecticut Saturday.
· The spread is how many?! Purdue will be a 30+ point favorite on a road game. I cannot remember the last time Purdue was a favorite of this magnitude. The Purdue players have certainly never been expected to win a game by this much, so let’s hope it does not go to the head.
· Look-ahead spot. Speaking of Independents, for the first time since September 13, 2014, Purdue will battle Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the Shillelagh Trophy. While no one on the roster (outside of a potential transfer) has played Notre Dame, I am sure most are educated on the rivalry, let alone the brand name of Notre Dame mixed with the top 10 ranking. It is a massive game. There is definitely some concern the Boilers are overlooking a horrendous UConn team in shambles, with sights set on Touchdown Jesus and Notre Dame.
· Bob Diaco Bowl. Maybe not a factor per se, but we have two programs featured with Bob Diaco fingerprints on it. Purdue’s defensive performance and effort against Oregon State certainly seemed to merit the decision to fire Diaco after a year.
· Redzone Offense. Oftentimes, the difference between hitting an over or an under, or even covering, comes down to redzone efficiency. This is not a wildly hot take, but if you look back at last week, Purdue arguably left at least 12 points on the field. While still short of the over, this would have made it much more interesting. Purdue clearly had its issues last week, while this is fixable, I will be curious to see how Purdue converts in the redzone, especially since the Boilers should have ample chances. (I am still upset about the option fumble near the goaline, loved the play call and I think I could have walked in with a clean pitch).
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Public seems real heavy on the Boilers early. 83% of the money is on the Boilers, while over 70% of bets are on the Boilers. Anytime the ticket number surpasses the 70% threshold, the opposite side has a notoriously good track record in covering. The logic being, if Vegas is THAT vulnerable if Purdue covers, I trust they will have moved the line enough to cover their ass. This strategy certainly has its losses, but over time, fading a public slant that significant has worked fairly well. Of course, UConn may be such a disaster that they surpass all logic and reason, and maybe Vegas just hopes no one will bet the game. The over has a 12% sharp advantage with 50% of bets, but 62% of the money. The concern is, will Purdue be able to score enough? If the over hits, it will rely on Purdue, and specifically, Purdue’s redzone efficiency.
Trends: Tough week for the trends last week as a blind following would have landed you with an 0-2 start to the year. The trends are tough to follow with a new interim coach. Purdue has never been this big of a favorite under Brohm, and anytime it has been a double digit favorite, a majority of time the Boilers have not covered. The under gets a slight edge on the trend line, but the UConn defense is that bad, the Boilers could flirt with hitting the over by themselves. This week, I am personally not putting much stock in the trends. This is a game out of the ordinary for a lot of reasons: Purdue playing in the NE, UConn’s coach leaving midseason and in week 2 (3 for UConn since they played Week 0), etc. If on the fence, the trends may swing, but I will not be relying on much.
Situation: All the situational edge goes to UConn. The only saving grace for Purdue is they did not blow out Oregon State, so there is still a chance the public sees how big the number is and overreacts. The overreaction from public will come significantly more on the UConn news all week. After getting the doors blown off by Fresno, and then losing to an FCS Holy Cross team, there is massive general distrust of UConn in general, and why shouldn’t there be. The coaching leaving certainly does not help. UConn is a walking dumpster fire, and for that reason, you have to believe they have a situational edge since the public sees this, knows it, and will try to back the Boilers on these points.
Total Analysis: This is maybe the hardest game to handicap since I have been writing the column. Purdue has never been this big of a favorite, and they head to the Northeast to take on an interim head coach and the worst division 1 FBS program in the country. Every sense tells me Purdue should win this by 50. I hope that happens. However, the numbers and situational spot, with Purdue looking ahead to Notre Dame and UConn being as big of a publicly perceived dumpster fire as can be, tells me there may be some slight value on the UConn side. Brohm has always struggled as a favorite, especially a big favorite, although it has not happened often. The Nevada game comes to mind frequently where Purdue should have stepped on the throat of an inferior team, and yet, failed to do so. I was pleasantly surprised to see Jeff shift away from his 2020 self to a more aggressive play-calling approach at the end of the Oregon State game, and maybe that will lend some bonus points for the Boilers. It is worth noting that in the event of a blow out, I expect Burton to get some playing time, as I assume he will have family in the area. AOC may get some too. These QBs are still trying to prove they belong, so I would not be shocked to see Purdue keep their foot on the gas a bit. UConn is also starting arguably the worst secondary unit in the country. Plummer, in theory, should put up Heisman numbers Saturday. I do expect Purdue to run the ball, more for a confidence boost than anything. One final note, I do find the difference in total game line versus halftime line particularly interesting here. Clearly, Vegas is banking on Purdue taking a first half lead and then playing backups in the second half. A 21 point spread in the first half to a 34 point spread for a full game is a significant difference.
Prediction: 45-13, Boilers. I feel disgusting taking UConn to cover. This reminds me of the Penn State-Purdue game from 2019 where the Boilers were down 28-0 in the blink of an eye and ended up covering by a half point. Purdue should win this game by a 50 burger, no questions asked. However, given the public perception and Notre Dame on the schedule, I would not be shocked to see the Boilers come out and start a little bit slow. Maybe this is an overgeneralization on my part, but I always feel like a team plays significantly harder the first game under an interim Head Coach, especially if the coach is well liked. While the new UConn coach has no head coaching experience, he has ample NFL coaching experience to use Saturday. I see UConn starting the game with some emotion and fire in the belly. Purdue will need to match the intensity in what should be a quiet and boring atmosphere.
Plays: UConn +34, Over 58. I would heavily consider Purdue first half, especially if you think the subs will come in and Brohm takes a conservative second half approach. Shop around for books. This honestly may be a no-bet game if you are a Purdue fan. This should be a win and a nice tune up for one of the biggest games on the schedule next weekend in South Bend. If Purdue wins by 21+, I think you have to feel pretty good going forward. Would I love to see Purdue win by 50? Of course, and they should, but I am going to defer to the numbers and tell my bias and perception to take a back seat. Full disclosure, there is a 50% chance my heart overtakes my brain and I place a nice big bet on the Boilers Saturday around noon, but I will blame bourbon for that. Go Boilers. Have a best bet? Let’s see it below.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-0): Iowa just steamrolled IU, while Iowa State struggled to beat Northern Iowa, and Iowa State is the favorite? Maybe, just maybe, IU is bad and if you take away the pick sixes, Iowa offense struggled too. The Iowa State defense is legit and Matt Campbell would LOVE to grind this out. I believe, per Chris Fallica, this will be the first time since 2000 that Iowa State is the favorite. This smells like a rat line, and I will not be eating the cheese; give me ISU -4.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against UConn meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or UConn +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the UConn spread, the Huskies would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats UConn by 3, Purdue has won the game, but UConn has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my own analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naive to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to gametime as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 UConn Huskies.
Week 1 RECAP:
The Column goes 2-1 as the Boilers cover -7 (Payne Durham, I know you slowed down and thought about taking a knee at the 1 to just kill the clock, but if NIL permits me, I owe you a couple beers for crossing that goal line my man). If you were sitting by me at the game, you heard me begging for Oregon State to go for two and miss so the Boilers could have gotten a clean, ten point victory so the column would have nailed the margin of victory. Nevertheless, we will take the one point difference. The over got some hopes up late, but was virtually dead at halftime thanks to the Boilers obsession with redzone turnovers and The Oregon State QB really just being awful. Brohm’s offense and the rain (or rainy conditions) are still foes. MSU was a nice Friday night rocking chair win as the Spartans stayed in control wire-to-wire.
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 1-0 ATS, Overs are 0-1.
UConn: 0-2 ATS, Overs are 1-1. UConn failed to cover as three point favorites versus Holy Cross, losing outright 38-28, over 49.5 hit, and failed to cover as 28 point underdogs against Fresno State, under 63.5 hit.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:30am on 9/10/21:
Current spread: Purdue -34.5 (Opened -27.5),
1H Spread: Purdue -21, O/U 31
Over/Under: 58 (Opened 56)
Bets: 77% on Purdue, 50% on over
Money: 83% on Purdue, 62% on over
UConn O/U: 12 (Currently N/A, numbers based on Vegas projections)
Purdue O/U: 46 (Currently N/A, numbers based on Vegas projections)
Jeff Brohm vs. UConn: 0-0
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -200. As of Week 2, this number is now 80/1. Vegas was extremely impressed with Ohio State, so all odds increased with the exception of Penn State and Iowa.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Wisconsin is the current favorite at -115. As of Week 2, this number is now at 20/1. I personally envisioned this moving a little more with every Big Ten West team losing except Iowa. Wisconsin and Iowa are now tied as favorites at +110.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at 2.6/1. As of Week 2, this number is now 400/1. While it may seem surprising for Purdue to win and the odds get longer, Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State all significantly increased their odds.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105. As of Week 2, Purdue is off to the start needed if you are an over backer. You should be almost halfway home after this week.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move but the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for UConn:
· Purdue under Brohm is 3-6 ATS as an away favorite. Brohm is almost always a must play as an underdog and a must fade as a favorite. Purdue failed to cover in its last two games as an away favorite losing to Minnesota outright and failing to cover at Illinois. I will not go into detail about this Minnesota game, as I stated last week, but given that every sportsbook in America graded this bet null due to the most asinine call I have ever seen in sports, I feel it should not be counted. I digress. If you recall correctly, Illinois was a game where people expected Purdue to come in a thump the Illini after the Illini were destroyed on national TV by Wisconsin. Purdue won by 7, but the game certainly felt closer than that. In 2019, Purdue was only an away favorite one time, opening the season by failing to cover at Nevada.
· Purdue is 10-8 ATS under Brohm after a Purdue win. Purdue failed to cover in both of their games last season after wins. Illinois has already been discussed, but the Boilers also failed to cover against Northwestern after beating Illinois. Purdue covers the spread on average by 1.4 points after a win.
· After last week, Purdue is now 8-4 ATS in non-conference games under Jeff Brohm. This trend was put on a hiatus last year with the conference only schedule, so we must revisit 2019. The Boilers failed to cover in two of the three non-conference games. Purdue blew a cover against Nevada, and then proceeded to absolutely steamroll a very bad Vanderbilt team. The following week, under the lights, Purdue played as the nail as the TCU hammer won convincingly. Take out 2019, and Brohm boasts a 7-2 (including 2021) ATS record against non-conference opponents.
· In games where Purdue is an away favorite under Brohm, the total has gone under six out of the last nine games. This occurred most recently when the under successfully cashed against Illinois, while the over hit in the Minnesota game. The over also hit in Purdue’s lone game as an away favorite in 2019 against Nevada.
· UConn is now coached by Lou Spanos. While it is almost impossible to accurately use trends with the first game for an interim coach, I will still use Randy Edsall as the trend. However, take it with a grain of salt. UConn is 6-8 ATS under Edsall as a home underdog. They have failed to cover on average by 6.3 points in these spots and they have lost these games outright by an average of 23.7 points.
· After a Connecticut loss under Edsall, UConn is 10-18 ATS. UConn has lost these games on average by 21.9 points and has failed to cover on average by 3.3 points.
· Overall, UConn was 13-25 ATS in games under Edsall. While ATS does not measure program success, I can comfortably assume that a majority of those games were with UConn as an underdog.
· Under Coach Edsall, overs are 5-9 when UConn is a home favorite.
· The over is 16-12 under Edsall after a loss by the Huskies. The over has on average by 5.3 points.
· Purdue is 0-7 straight up in its last 7 games against Independents. Obviously this statistic is skewed because it is all Notre Dame. However, I thought it was a fun fact and hopefully we have reached the end of this Independent skid.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· The Boilers? In New England? It is certainly a rarity for the Boilers to travel up to the great northeast. Obviously less so after adding Rutgers to the conference, but for many, this is still relatively uncharted territory. As Alan already stated, this will be the first time since 1947 that the Boilers will be playing in NE. While Austin Burton may certainly feel at home (and hopefully gets some blow out playing time!), not sure the Boilers will. The crowd may end up being more Boilers than Huskies. The first true out of conference road game for your freshman and sophomores still presents an interesting test for the Boilers.
· So, what exactly is going on at UConn? Randy Edsall announced a retirement at the end of the season, to which he abruptly cut even shorter a day later. Videos from the game against Holy Cross show a team who had clearly quit. Were there issues in the UConn locker room that remain unknown? If so, there is certainly the chance Edsall’s leaving provides a boost in morale and maybe even in play at UConn. There is no question the talent at UConn is lacking, but this may be an inspired team this week. Lou Spanos has NFL experience, but not sure how much a difference he can make.
· Weather looks to be a non-factor. 72 and partly cloudy in Mansfield, Connecticut Saturday.
· The spread is how many?! Purdue will be a 30+ point favorite on a road game. I cannot remember the last time Purdue was a favorite of this magnitude. The Purdue players have certainly never been expected to win a game by this much, so let’s hope it does not go to the head.
· Look-ahead spot. Speaking of Independents, for the first time since September 13, 2014, Purdue will battle Notre Dame Fighting Irish for the Shillelagh Trophy. While no one on the roster (outside of a potential transfer) has played Notre Dame, I am sure most are educated on the rivalry, let alone the brand name of Notre Dame mixed with the top 10 ranking. It is a massive game. There is definitely some concern the Boilers are overlooking a horrendous UConn team in shambles, with sights set on Touchdown Jesus and Notre Dame.
· Bob Diaco Bowl. Maybe not a factor per se, but we have two programs featured with Bob Diaco fingerprints on it. Purdue’s defensive performance and effort against Oregon State certainly seemed to merit the decision to fire Diaco after a year.
· Redzone Offense. Oftentimes, the difference between hitting an over or an under, or even covering, comes down to redzone efficiency. This is not a wildly hot take, but if you look back at last week, Purdue arguably left at least 12 points on the field. While still short of the over, this would have made it much more interesting. Purdue clearly had its issues last week, while this is fixable, I will be curious to see how Purdue converts in the redzone, especially since the Boilers should have ample chances. (I am still upset about the option fumble near the goaline, loved the play call and I think I could have walked in with a clean pitch).
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: Public seems real heavy on the Boilers early. 83% of the money is on the Boilers, while over 70% of bets are on the Boilers. Anytime the ticket number surpasses the 70% threshold, the opposite side has a notoriously good track record in covering. The logic being, if Vegas is THAT vulnerable if Purdue covers, I trust they will have moved the line enough to cover their ass. This strategy certainly has its losses, but over time, fading a public slant that significant has worked fairly well. Of course, UConn may be such a disaster that they surpass all logic and reason, and maybe Vegas just hopes no one will bet the game. The over has a 12% sharp advantage with 50% of bets, but 62% of the money. The concern is, will Purdue be able to score enough? If the over hits, it will rely on Purdue, and specifically, Purdue’s redzone efficiency.
Trends: Tough week for the trends last week as a blind following would have landed you with an 0-2 start to the year. The trends are tough to follow with a new interim coach. Purdue has never been this big of a favorite under Brohm, and anytime it has been a double digit favorite, a majority of time the Boilers have not covered. The under gets a slight edge on the trend line, but the UConn defense is that bad, the Boilers could flirt with hitting the over by themselves. This week, I am personally not putting much stock in the trends. This is a game out of the ordinary for a lot of reasons: Purdue playing in the NE, UConn’s coach leaving midseason and in week 2 (3 for UConn since they played Week 0), etc. If on the fence, the trends may swing, but I will not be relying on much.
Situation: All the situational edge goes to UConn. The only saving grace for Purdue is they did not blow out Oregon State, so there is still a chance the public sees how big the number is and overreacts. The overreaction from public will come significantly more on the UConn news all week. After getting the doors blown off by Fresno, and then losing to an FCS Holy Cross team, there is massive general distrust of UConn in general, and why shouldn’t there be. The coaching leaving certainly does not help. UConn is a walking dumpster fire, and for that reason, you have to believe they have a situational edge since the public sees this, knows it, and will try to back the Boilers on these points.
Total Analysis: This is maybe the hardest game to handicap since I have been writing the column. Purdue has never been this big of a favorite, and they head to the Northeast to take on an interim head coach and the worst division 1 FBS program in the country. Every sense tells me Purdue should win this by 50. I hope that happens. However, the numbers and situational spot, with Purdue looking ahead to Notre Dame and UConn being as big of a publicly perceived dumpster fire as can be, tells me there may be some slight value on the UConn side. Brohm has always struggled as a favorite, especially a big favorite, although it has not happened often. The Nevada game comes to mind frequently where Purdue should have stepped on the throat of an inferior team, and yet, failed to do so. I was pleasantly surprised to see Jeff shift away from his 2020 self to a more aggressive play-calling approach at the end of the Oregon State game, and maybe that will lend some bonus points for the Boilers. It is worth noting that in the event of a blow out, I expect Burton to get some playing time, as I assume he will have family in the area. AOC may get some too. These QBs are still trying to prove they belong, so I would not be shocked to see Purdue keep their foot on the gas a bit. UConn is also starting arguably the worst secondary unit in the country. Plummer, in theory, should put up Heisman numbers Saturday. I do expect Purdue to run the ball, more for a confidence boost than anything. One final note, I do find the difference in total game line versus halftime line particularly interesting here. Clearly, Vegas is banking on Purdue taking a first half lead and then playing backups in the second half. A 21 point spread in the first half to a 34 point spread for a full game is a significant difference.
Prediction: 45-13, Boilers. I feel disgusting taking UConn to cover. This reminds me of the Penn State-Purdue game from 2019 where the Boilers were down 28-0 in the blink of an eye and ended up covering by a half point. Purdue should win this game by a 50 burger, no questions asked. However, given the public perception and Notre Dame on the schedule, I would not be shocked to see the Boilers come out and start a little bit slow. Maybe this is an overgeneralization on my part, but I always feel like a team plays significantly harder the first game under an interim Head Coach, especially if the coach is well liked. While the new UConn coach has no head coaching experience, he has ample NFL coaching experience to use Saturday. I see UConn starting the game with some emotion and fire in the belly. Purdue will need to match the intensity in what should be a quiet and boring atmosphere.
Plays: UConn +34, Over 58. I would heavily consider Purdue first half, especially if you think the subs will come in and Brohm takes a conservative second half approach. Shop around for books. This honestly may be a no-bet game if you are a Purdue fan. This should be a win and a nice tune up for one of the biggest games on the schedule next weekend in South Bend. If Purdue wins by 21+, I think you have to feel pretty good going forward. Would I love to see Purdue win by 50? Of course, and they should, but I am going to defer to the numbers and tell my bias and perception to take a back seat. Full disclosure, there is a 50% chance my heart overtakes my brain and I place a nice big bet on the Boilers Saturday around noon, but I will blame bourbon for that. Go Boilers. Have a best bet? Let’s see it below.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week (1-0): Iowa just steamrolled IU, while Iowa State struggled to beat Northern Iowa, and Iowa State is the favorite? Maybe, just maybe, IU is bad and if you take away the pick sixes, Iowa offense struggled too. The Iowa State defense is legit and Matt Campbell would LOVE to grind this out. I believe, per Chris Fallica, this will be the first time since 2000 that Iowa State is the favorite. This smells like a rat line, and I will not be eating the cheese; give me ISU -4.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -34 against UConn meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 34.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -34 or UConn +34. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 34 or win. If one bets on the UConn spread, the Huskies would have to win outright or less by less than 34.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats UConn by 3, Purdue has won the game, but UConn has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
