Welcome to the third year, first edition of Covering the Tracks. As fans, we are about to experience, arguably, the greatest shift in the college football landscape from one season to another. Last season we saw empty stadiums, shortened schedules, and a reduction in the usual traditions that make college football great. Since, we have seen a landmark decision from the SCOTUS in the Alston case, NIL rights granted to student-athletes, and a return to normalcy in stadium attendance and tradition (This is not to mention the giant shift in perennial power and greed from the SEC with Texas and Oklahoma but that is for another day, I digress). Through all of this, we have continued to see the massive upswing of gambling popularity as it loses the traditional taboo tag it once had. Even today, the NFL, an extremely anti-gambling organization in the past, has partnered with multiple gaming companies as the official betting partners of the NFL. The growth of gambling and the impact it has on NIL opportunities for student-athletes remains to be seen. We have already seen Barstool Sports, now owned by Penn Gaming, endorse student-athletes, which could be seen as a gambling company endorsing student-athletes. How this will unfold going forward is a massive guess. But one thing is for sure, sports gambling is here to stay and it is growing at a rate faster than many believed.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to game time as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Oregon State Beavers.
2020 Season RECAP:
The column finished to 7-5 on the year with with an 0-2 effort after the Nebraska game. Highlight of the year being the accurately predicted 31-24 score against Illinois. This is the second straight year the column has finished positive, and here’s to hoping this occurs in year 3!
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 0-0 ATS, Overs are 0-0. Purdue went 2-4 outright in 2020 with wins against Iowa and Illinois.
Oregon State: 0-0 ATS, Overs are 0-0. Oregon State went 2-5 outright in 2020 with wins against California and an upset of Oregon.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 7:30pm on 9/2/21:
Current spread: Purdue -7 (Opened -6),
1H Spread: Purdue -4, O/U 33
Over/Under: 69 (Opened 62)
Bets: 23% on Purdue, 29% on over
Money: 28% on Purdue, 42% on over
Oregon State O/U: 30.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Purdue O/U: 38.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Jeff Brohm vs. Oregon State: 0-0
· Brohm has never coached against Oregon State. His only game against a PAC-12 opponent came in 2017 when Purdue beat Arizona in the Bowl Game.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -200.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Wisconsin is the current favorite at -115.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at 2.6/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Oregon State:
· Purdue under Brohm is 6-8 ATS as a home favorite. Brohm is almost always a must play as an underdog and a must fade as a favorite. Purdue failed to cover in its last two games as a home favorite, with games against Nebraska and Rutgers. Purdue was 1-2 ATS in 2019 as a home favorite with the sole win coming against Vanderbilt (Purdue was technically an underdog in the massacre of Maryland). While these trends can certainly vary from year to year, the big picture can give an idea of trend success. I use 2019 throughout just because I believe it will be a better indicator than 2020 as we return to more normal conditions.
· Purdue is 2-2 ATS under Brohm in the first game of the season. We have an ATS sandwich here as the Boilers have covered in 2017 (Louisville) and 2020 (Iowa), while failing to cover in 2018 (NW) and 2019 (Nevada). However, last year was the first outright win for Purdue in an opening game under Brohm. Without question the result is different if Purdue plays Iowa later in the season, but maybe that game showed a glimpse of ability (assuming the team does not fall off a mental cliff with a loss).
· In games where Purdue is a home favorite under Brohm, the total has gone over ten out of the last thirteen games. This occurred most recently when the over hit against Rutgers and Nebraska to close out the season.
· Purdue closed the season on an 0-5 ATS run, finishing the year 1-5 ATS. After covering against Iowa, the Boilers failed to cover in its remaining games, although I will certainly entertain the discussion that Minnesota should be graded as a win.
· Oregon State is coached by Jonathan Smith who was hired the same season as Jeff Brohm. Oregon State is 12-7-1 ATS under Smith as an away underdog. They have covered on average by 2.4 points in these spots, however, they have lost these games outright by an average of 14.6 points.
· In opening games under Smith, Oregon State is 0-4 outright. This includes a loss to Colorado State by 31 in 2017, a loss to Ohio State by 46 in 2018, loss to Ok. St. by 16 in 2019, loss to Washington St. by 10 in 2020.
· Oregon State under Smith is 4-5 ATS in non-conference games. Oregon State has certainly played its share of tough non-conference games. Ohio State and Oklahoma State have both been consistent top 25 performers (obviously much higher for O$U). This is commendable for Oregon State. The assumption being Oregon State believes these games will speed up their rebuild. Will that be the case? Coach Smith seems to think so.
· Under Coach Smith, overs are 15-5 in games where Oregon State is an away underdog. The over hits on average by 7.3 points.
· The over is 7-2 in non-conference Oregon State games under Smith.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Body Clocks. Corvallis, Oregon is a cool 34 hour drive from West Lafayette, Indiana. This is approximately 2,238 miles and crosses through multiple time zones. WL is three hours ahead of Corvallis. While this game will be at 7:00PM Eastern (whereas this would only be 4PM in Corvallis), the body clocks of the Oregon State players will need to reacclimate and any little advantage helps.
· Game time temperatures look good for West Lafayette, but there is a concern for rain. Temperature looks to be in the high 60’s, while sunset should occur around 8:10 PM. Any Purdue fan should be all too familiar with Purdue’s struggles under Brohm in rain games (EMU, Illinois). I would hope weather is not a factor, but if the rain decides to show up, hopefully Purdue ball security issue do not show up too.
· For the sophomores and freshmen on the team, this will be their first true college football game. While the talent, speed, and intensity from the opposition was on display last night, it is hard to fully simulate what playing in a packed stadium can do. I am sure nerves for both teams will be a slight factor having fans in the stans. Add in the fact that this is the first game for fans since 2019 and it is a night game, I expect Ross-Ade to be bumping. Alexa, play “Worlds Collide.”
· Brohm vs. The Opening Game. I do not need to bring up the hidden away memories of Northwestern or Nevada, but the Boilers did seemingly take a step forward getting rid of the first game bugaboos. Again, it bears mentioning that last year was so different, you almost need to set aside the season and how it impacted the trends.
· Night Games. Purdue has been Jekyll and Hyde with night games. After dominating Ohio in Brohm’s opening year, and following that performance up with arguably one of the biggest wins in program history against O$U, Purdue struggled in night games getting their doors blown off by TCU. Purdue did not play many night games at home last year, but did lose to NW and Minnesota in night games. Hopefully a return to the mean occurs here.
· Transfers. This year, more than ever, teams could seemingly change overnight with the expansion of the Transfer Portal. For an illustration, look no further than Oregon State bringing in conference foe Sam Noyer to start at QB. Purdue should also see some transfers make an impact, shifting the dynamics for both teams. It will be interesting to see how Vegas has accounted for the transfers, and if they have over or undercompensated.
· “The Big M-O, MO” - Lee Corso via NCAA Football video games. The general atmosphere surrounding Purdue football has been one of negativity as of late, as the program has seemed to have lost all the momentum from the start of the Brohm era. After finishing on a four game losing streak, a lot of fans have expressed pessimistic views towards the team and season. Oregon State won just as many games as Purdue and yet people in Corvallis celebrated the huge success the Beavers had, presumably for beating Oregon. The Oregon State AD called the team way ahead of schedule under Smith. I believe it is pertinent, on a national perception level, to emphasize how different last year goes for this Purdue team if the Minnesota OPI call goes differently. It is no secret that the team collapsed mentally after that game. Horrendous effort ensued against Rutgers and Nebraska, two extremely beatable teams. This is a new year. A reset. That is not the same Purdue team, physically or mentally.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: For a game in a primetime spot on FS1, this game is certainly falling under the radar. This game has not been heavily bet, and if you are not an Oregon State or Purdue fan, it makes sense why. Neither of these teams garner real excitement to an outsider. David Bell and Karlaftis provide NFL future name recognition, but overall, Oregon State has been traditionally bad with Purdue being average at best. With that being said, the numbers right now lead us to a sharp difference leaning toward Purdue -7 and the over. There is a 5% difference on spread, with a 13% difference leaning toward the over. It is worth the caveat that thus far, there is not a lot of sample size, see above. This game will certainly get bet, but on opening weekend with a slate this big, it is not a huge surprise that other games are being more focused on by gamblers.
Trends: The gospel on Purdue under Brohm has held tried and true: Points will be scored, and the Boilers will struggle as a favorite. Brohm has established himself as a fade when a favorite, back as a dog. I am not sure if it is a motivational issue, maybe Brohm motivates better as the underdog, but the numbers do not lie. Oregon State trends do not give much of a picture. The Beavers have been so consistently bad, that the numbers are a bit skewed. Trends certainly suggest over.
Situation: Momentum was discussed above, and Brian has set it already, but this feels like a must win game for Brohm. The hype around the program has cooled, while Oregon State feels like it is headed in the right direction. Public perception also seems down on Purdue, as for Vegas. A 5 win season projection with Oregon State, Connecticut, and Illinois all on schedule is very telling. Week 1 is always where situational spots matter the least given the timing, but I believe the general consensus is more down on Purdue than they should be. I hope so, anyway.
Total Analysis: The trends and money tells me the over is a must play. It feels too good to be true, so I am certainly skeptical, but the amount that number has jumped from opening with the trends and money backing it up, tells me Vegas thinks some points will be scored. Vegas moving the line so significantly tells me sharps took the number early, and they clearly were too susceptible to liability at that number, causing a drastic raise. MY hope is they made it high enough to entice the public to take the under. However, I do have concerns about the 62-69 window of points. If this game ends with 65, that would be very Vegas of Vegas. Oregon State has never had a good defense, and the general notion is Brohm will get back to his aggressive ways on offense, and defense, which may lead to some Oregon State points. While the money indicators are not the strongest given the lack of volume, the money leads us to believe that sharp action is indeed on Purdue, at least early. Sharp action before gametime is normally a telling signal, so be sure to check back closer to game time. Both the total number and spread are interesting because they are both relative football number. Could the whole numbers, as opposed to having a .5 hook, be a sign from Vegas that they are not comfortable fully capping this game? I am sure that is not the case, but the whole numbers present an intriguing case. Last year, I took a leap of faith in game 1 and backed Brohm. Purdue has depth issues, but the talent is there, and by all indications, Purdue will be healthy. Oregon State is traveling an awful long way to play in front of fans for the first time. At the end of the day, I rely on the numbers and the trends. The numbers say Purdue, the trends do not. However, if you isolate the end of 2020, Purdue does still boost a somewhat respectable ATS record at home, even as a favorite. While Oregon State may be trending correctly, I believe a mental reset for a far more talented Purdue team is exactly what it needs to see more of its early 2020 form, and much less of how Purdue ended the season. The public perception of Purdue’s downfall certainly backs the -7.
Prediction: 41-31. Brohm has breached aggressive play all season, let’s see it. Oregon State’s defense has been bad for as long as I can remember, and I refuse to believe Jeff Brohm cannot exploit it with his back against the wall. I do see Oregon State running the ball with some success, so hopefully this is not Rutgers all over again. While Purdue is a favorite, this game feels like a must win where Brohm’s back is against the wall. I expect that for much of the season. If you can find Purdue -6.5, I would certainly ride that book. Same being said for +7.5 if you like the Beavers. I like the over. I am worried how much I like the over. It would be natural for Purdue to come out rusty on offense. Plummer showed me a lot of flashes last year and with his mobility, mixed with David Bell flat out being the best player on the field by some margin, I really expect Purdue to open it up and score some points.
Plays: Purdue -6.5, buy the half point if you can. I would also take the alternate line at -9.5. Over 69, I would probably buy half point down to 68.5, just in case so a 38-31 cashes for you. Shop around for books. While buying points is never a good strategy, there are a lot of question marks in game 1. The indicators, right now, are not strong enough to really highlight an advantage. As always, bet smart, and bet responsibly. It is so easy to get in over your head, especially when gambling on your team. There is no shame in asking for help if you need it. Go Boilers. Have a best bet? Let’s see it below.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: The underdog has covered in 5 of the last 7 for MSU-Northwestern. I feel disgusting for taking them, but I think it has to be MSU +3.5.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -7 against Oregon State meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 7.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -7 or Oregon State +7. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 8 or win. If one bets on the Oregon State spread, OSU would have to win outright or less by less than 7.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Oregon State by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Oregon State has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
For first-timers, Covering the Tracks is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue football game through the lens of the gambling world. Whether you are new to sports gambling or just enjoy reading everything about Purdue football, my hope is this weekly column will provide some sort of entertainment and/or information in anticipation of the Boilers upcoming game. The age-old saying is “Vegas always knows” so even if you are not a gambler, this weekly article hopefully provides you with some insight into how games can be more accurately predicted and previewed by using gambling analysis. All opinions listed throughout the article are my own, and I would advise that you take them with a grain of salt.
If anyone is looking to get into sports gambling, particularly in regards to Purdue, I cannot emphasize the importance of bankroll management and long term success. The biggest mistake new sports gamblers make is failing to properly manage your bankroll. This is a long term game. Do not expect to bat 1.000. Going 60% over an extended period of time is great! Always look for value. I personally take a contrarian approach in my gambling because I believe the public inflates the lines with bias and value is found on the other side. Simple, yet effective. However, there are many different schools of thought and strategies. I encourage you to test them out and find what works. For this article, I will be using my analysis. Indiana offers multiple online books (DraftKings, PointsBet, FanDuel, etc.). I would encourage you to shop around at different books, take advantage of promotions, and find the best possible lines you can. Value betting is crucial. If you have specific questions, feel free to ask!
Covid made last year one of the oddest in college football history (Is anyone surprised IU had a good season while playing all their games in empty stadiums?). While I expect this year to be closer to normal, it would be naïve to expect 100% normalcy. There very well could still be cases where players are held out of games last minute, or teams have to outright forfeit. Make sure you review the rules of whichever Sportsbook you use to see how they grade plays. Waiting till as close to game time as possible is recommended for that reason. Hopefully this is not an issue with Purdue due to their stellar vaccination rates, but you never know. Here is to a full season of Purdue football being back, and Ross-Ade being open.
As always, for those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end. For this week, we look at the 2021 Oregon State Beavers.
2020 Season RECAP:
The column finished to 7-5 on the year with with an 0-2 effort after the Nebraska game. Highlight of the year being the accurately predicted 31-24 score against Illinois. This is the second straight year the column has finished positive, and here’s to hoping this occurs in year 3!
2021 Season ATS Records:
Purdue: 0-0 ATS, Overs are 0-0. Purdue went 2-4 outright in 2020 with wins against Iowa and Illinois.
Oregon State: 0-0 ATS, Overs are 0-0. Oregon State went 2-5 outright in 2020 with wins against California and an upset of Oregon.
Current Betting breakdowns as of 7:30pm on 9/2/21:
Current spread: Purdue -7 (Opened -6),
1H Spread: Purdue -4, O/U 33
Over/Under: 69 (Opened 62)
Bets: 23% on Purdue, 29% on over
Money: 28% on Purdue, 42% on over
Oregon State O/U: 30.5 (Over -110, Under -120)
Purdue O/U: 38.5 (Over -105, Under -125)
Jeff Brohm vs. Oregon State: 0-0
· Brohm has never coached against Oregon State. His only game against a PAC-12 opponent came in 2017 when Purdue beat Arizona in the Bowl Game.
2021 Futures:
New this year I want to address future bets for Purdue. For those unfamiliar, future bets are bets made regarding things like division or conference winner, heisman winner, and national champion. It is fairly self explanatory.
Currently:
To win the Big Ten Title Game: Purdue is 60/1. Ohio State is the current favorite at -200.
To win the Big Ten West Division: Purdue is 25/1. Wisconsin is the current favorite at -115.
To win the National Championship: Purdue is 200/1. Alabama is the current favorite at 2.6/1.
Purdue’s season win total is set at O/U 5 wins. The Over is slightly favored at -125, while under is +105.
Note: David Bell, or any other Purdue player for that matter, is not listed on the Heisman odds. I think this is a coward move by the books, but, I also realize my bias and understand that the Heisman has become more of a team award, and if your team is not good enough, you will not be considered. With that being said, David Bell is the best receiver in the country and deserves odds.
Trend Analysis for Oregon State:
· Purdue under Brohm is 6-8 ATS as a home favorite. Brohm is almost always a must play as an underdog and a must fade as a favorite. Purdue failed to cover in its last two games as a home favorite, with games against Nebraska and Rutgers. Purdue was 1-2 ATS in 2019 as a home favorite with the sole win coming against Vanderbilt (Purdue was technically an underdog in the massacre of Maryland). While these trends can certainly vary from year to year, the big picture can give an idea of trend success. I use 2019 throughout just because I believe it will be a better indicator than 2020 as we return to more normal conditions.
· Purdue is 2-2 ATS under Brohm in the first game of the season. We have an ATS sandwich here as the Boilers have covered in 2017 (Louisville) and 2020 (Iowa), while failing to cover in 2018 (NW) and 2019 (Nevada). However, last year was the first outright win for Purdue in an opening game under Brohm. Without question the result is different if Purdue plays Iowa later in the season, but maybe that game showed a glimpse of ability (assuming the team does not fall off a mental cliff with a loss).
· In games where Purdue is a home favorite under Brohm, the total has gone over ten out of the last thirteen games. This occurred most recently when the over hit against Rutgers and Nebraska to close out the season.
· Purdue closed the season on an 0-5 ATS run, finishing the year 1-5 ATS. After covering against Iowa, the Boilers failed to cover in its remaining games, although I will certainly entertain the discussion that Minnesota should be graded as a win.
· Oregon State is coached by Jonathan Smith who was hired the same season as Jeff Brohm. Oregon State is 12-7-1 ATS under Smith as an away underdog. They have covered on average by 2.4 points in these spots, however, they have lost these games outright by an average of 14.6 points.
· In opening games under Smith, Oregon State is 0-4 outright. This includes a loss to Colorado State by 31 in 2017, a loss to Ohio State by 46 in 2018, loss to Ok. St. by 16 in 2019, loss to Washington St. by 10 in 2020.
· Oregon State under Smith is 4-5 ATS in non-conference games. Oregon State has certainly played its share of tough non-conference games. Ohio State and Oklahoma State have both been consistent top 25 performers (obviously much higher for O$U). This is commendable for Oregon State. The assumption being Oregon State believes these games will speed up their rebuild. Will that be the case? Coach Smith seems to think so.
· Under Coach Smith, overs are 15-5 in games where Oregon State is an away underdog. The over hits on average by 7.3 points.
· The over is 7-2 in non-conference Oregon State games under Smith.
Miscellaneous Factors:
· Body Clocks. Corvallis, Oregon is a cool 34 hour drive from West Lafayette, Indiana. This is approximately 2,238 miles and crosses through multiple time zones. WL is three hours ahead of Corvallis. While this game will be at 7:00PM Eastern (whereas this would only be 4PM in Corvallis), the body clocks of the Oregon State players will need to reacclimate and any little advantage helps.
· Game time temperatures look good for West Lafayette, but there is a concern for rain. Temperature looks to be in the high 60’s, while sunset should occur around 8:10 PM. Any Purdue fan should be all too familiar with Purdue’s struggles under Brohm in rain games (EMU, Illinois). I would hope weather is not a factor, but if the rain decides to show up, hopefully Purdue ball security issue do not show up too.
· For the sophomores and freshmen on the team, this will be their first true college football game. While the talent, speed, and intensity from the opposition was on display last night, it is hard to fully simulate what playing in a packed stadium can do. I am sure nerves for both teams will be a slight factor having fans in the stans. Add in the fact that this is the first game for fans since 2019 and it is a night game, I expect Ross-Ade to be bumping. Alexa, play “Worlds Collide.”
· Brohm vs. The Opening Game. I do not need to bring up the hidden away memories of Northwestern or Nevada, but the Boilers did seemingly take a step forward getting rid of the first game bugaboos. Again, it bears mentioning that last year was so different, you almost need to set aside the season and how it impacted the trends.
· Night Games. Purdue has been Jekyll and Hyde with night games. After dominating Ohio in Brohm’s opening year, and following that performance up with arguably one of the biggest wins in program history against O$U, Purdue struggled in night games getting their doors blown off by TCU. Purdue did not play many night games at home last year, but did lose to NW and Minnesota in night games. Hopefully a return to the mean occurs here.
· Transfers. This year, more than ever, teams could seemingly change overnight with the expansion of the Transfer Portal. For an illustration, look no further than Oregon State bringing in conference foe Sam Noyer to start at QB. Purdue should also see some transfers make an impact, shifting the dynamics for both teams. It will be interesting to see how Vegas has accounted for the transfers, and if they have over or undercompensated.
· “The Big M-O, MO” - Lee Corso via NCAA Football video games. The general atmosphere surrounding Purdue football has been one of negativity as of late, as the program has seemed to have lost all the momentum from the start of the Brohm era. After finishing on a four game losing streak, a lot of fans have expressed pessimistic views towards the team and season. Oregon State won just as many games as Purdue and yet people in Corvallis celebrated the huge success the Beavers had, presumably for beating Oregon. The Oregon State AD called the team way ahead of schedule under Smith. I believe it is pertinent, on a national perception level, to emphasize how different last year goes for this Purdue team if the Minnesota OPI call goes differently. It is no secret that the team collapsed mentally after that game. Horrendous effort ensued against Rutgers and Nebraska, two extremely beatable teams. This is a new year. A reset. That is not the same Purdue team, physically or mentally.
Gambling Analysis:
Numbers: For a game in a primetime spot on FS1, this game is certainly falling under the radar. This game has not been heavily bet, and if you are not an Oregon State or Purdue fan, it makes sense why. Neither of these teams garner real excitement to an outsider. David Bell and Karlaftis provide NFL future name recognition, but overall, Oregon State has been traditionally bad with Purdue being average at best. With that being said, the numbers right now lead us to a sharp difference leaning toward Purdue -7 and the over. There is a 5% difference on spread, with a 13% difference leaning toward the over. It is worth the caveat that thus far, there is not a lot of sample size, see above. This game will certainly get bet, but on opening weekend with a slate this big, it is not a huge surprise that other games are being more focused on by gamblers.
Trends: The gospel on Purdue under Brohm has held tried and true: Points will be scored, and the Boilers will struggle as a favorite. Brohm has established himself as a fade when a favorite, back as a dog. I am not sure if it is a motivational issue, maybe Brohm motivates better as the underdog, but the numbers do not lie. Oregon State trends do not give much of a picture. The Beavers have been so consistently bad, that the numbers are a bit skewed. Trends certainly suggest over.
Situation: Momentum was discussed above, and Brian has set it already, but this feels like a must win game for Brohm. The hype around the program has cooled, while Oregon State feels like it is headed in the right direction. Public perception also seems down on Purdue, as for Vegas. A 5 win season projection with Oregon State, Connecticut, and Illinois all on schedule is very telling. Week 1 is always where situational spots matter the least given the timing, but I believe the general consensus is more down on Purdue than they should be. I hope so, anyway.
Total Analysis: The trends and money tells me the over is a must play. It feels too good to be true, so I am certainly skeptical, but the amount that number has jumped from opening with the trends and money backing it up, tells me Vegas thinks some points will be scored. Vegas moving the line so significantly tells me sharps took the number early, and they clearly were too susceptible to liability at that number, causing a drastic raise. MY hope is they made it high enough to entice the public to take the under. However, I do have concerns about the 62-69 window of points. If this game ends with 65, that would be very Vegas of Vegas. Oregon State has never had a good defense, and the general notion is Brohm will get back to his aggressive ways on offense, and defense, which may lead to some Oregon State points. While the money indicators are not the strongest given the lack of volume, the money leads us to believe that sharp action is indeed on Purdue, at least early. Sharp action before gametime is normally a telling signal, so be sure to check back closer to game time. Both the total number and spread are interesting because they are both relative football number. Could the whole numbers, as opposed to having a .5 hook, be a sign from Vegas that they are not comfortable fully capping this game? I am sure that is not the case, but the whole numbers present an intriguing case. Last year, I took a leap of faith in game 1 and backed Brohm. Purdue has depth issues, but the talent is there, and by all indications, Purdue will be healthy. Oregon State is traveling an awful long way to play in front of fans for the first time. At the end of the day, I rely on the numbers and the trends. The numbers say Purdue, the trends do not. However, if you isolate the end of 2020, Purdue does still boost a somewhat respectable ATS record at home, even as a favorite. While Oregon State may be trending correctly, I believe a mental reset for a far more talented Purdue team is exactly what it needs to see more of its early 2020 form, and much less of how Purdue ended the season. The public perception of Purdue’s downfall certainly backs the -7.
Prediction: 41-31. Brohm has breached aggressive play all season, let’s see it. Oregon State’s defense has been bad for as long as I can remember, and I refuse to believe Jeff Brohm cannot exploit it with his back against the wall. I do see Oregon State running the ball with some success, so hopefully this is not Rutgers all over again. While Purdue is a favorite, this game feels like a must win where Brohm’s back is against the wall. I expect that for much of the season. If you can find Purdue -6.5, I would certainly ride that book. Same being said for +7.5 if you like the Beavers. I like the over. I am worried how much I like the over. It would be natural for Purdue to come out rusty on offense. Plummer showed me a lot of flashes last year and with his mobility, mixed with David Bell flat out being the best player on the field by some margin, I really expect Purdue to open it up and score some points.
Plays: Purdue -6.5, buy the half point if you can. I would also take the alternate line at -9.5. Over 69, I would probably buy half point down to 68.5, just in case so a 38-31 cashes for you. Shop around for books. While buying points is never a good strategy, there are a lot of question marks in game 1. The indicators, right now, are not strong enough to really highlight an advantage. As always, bet smart, and bet responsibly. It is so easy to get in over your head, especially when gambling on your team. There is no shame in asking for help if you need it. Go Boilers. Have a best bet? Let’s see it below.
Bonus. Plug Your Nose and Hit “Place Bet” of the Week: The underdog has covered in 5 of the last 7 for MSU-Northwestern. I feel disgusting for taking them, but I think it has to be MSU +3.5.
Glossary:
The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, Purdue is currently -7 against Oregon State meaning a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 7.
Odds and How to read them: The ability to read odds presents a gambler the insight into how a sportsbook or “Vegas” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bet will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds means that to win $10 dollars, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are positive, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for negative odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneylines odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115 then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.
Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -7 or Oregon State +7. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue would need to win by 8 or win. If one bets on the Oregon State spread, OSU would have to win outright or less by less than 7.
Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats Oregon State by 3, Purdue has won the game, but Oregon State has covered.
Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team just to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.
Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bet that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe less than 49 points will be scored and vice-versa.
Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers that have shown a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.
Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbook use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book are normally -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. This means that to win ten dollars, you would need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.
If there is a definition not listed that you think would be helpful, please let me know.
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