I try to post this every year before the first game, just an update at where Purdue and the rest of the Big Ten is at in recruiting, since a healthy majority of commitments are made before their senior season and there won't be too much movement from now until signing day. I'll be traveling the rest of the week so let's see if I can crank this out.
Here's Purdue's class as of right now. Jordan Buchanan is not listed due to not having any ratings yet.
Brady Allen and Joe Strickland are the obvious crown jewels of the class, Allen being the 3rd-highest rated QB in the Big Ten and Strickland being the 4th-highest rated D-lineman. Nic Caraway gets a special AA badge for being a US Army All-American bowl commit. Both he and Curtis Deville have moved up a decent amount in recent weeks. Kentrell Marks, Charlie Kenrich, and Roman Pitre are perhaps not being talked about enough.
Of the 14 listed commits above, 7 of them are offensive or defensive linemen. So while the offensive linemen aren't the highest-rated in the Big Ten Purdue could be making up for it in volume. And that's not me blowing smoke, by looking at Big Ten recruiting 2011-2016, about 10% of 3-star recruits wind up being NFL draft picks, while 4-star recruits get drafted at about a 25% rate. So rough math, 5 3-star linemen would be worth about 0.5 NFL draft picks, while 2 4-star recruits would be the equivalent of 0.5 NFL draft picks. There actually is value in loading up at a position even with lower-rated guys, you just got to hit on some of those lower-rated guys.
In terms of regions Purdue is doing really well in the Midwest, ranking 8th in avg stars of Midwest recruits. Purdue ranks 13th in Southern recruiting, hitting Louisiana hard with 3 commits out of the 5 from the South. Louisiana is not exactly a Big Ten hot bed, only Minnesota has another LA recruit at all. In the all-important in-state recruiting Purdue has 2 of the top 3 Big Ten commits in Allen and Strickland. IU has the rest of the top 5 though. Both Purdue and IU are doing a superb job of keeping top talent in-state, it's actually kind of weird to see.
After a clear dip in recruiting in 2021 Purdue seems to be righting the course back to what was becoming "normal" in the Brohm era. Just with significantly less commits than usual, which is a Big Ten trend I'll get into in a bit.
The "green-ness" of the cell is determined by the percentage of recruits that are of at least that rating in the class. As you can see the 14 guys we've recruited so far track more closely with 2020 than 2021.
So where do I rank Purdue?
I have us 8th in Class Points. The metric I actually prefer to use is Adj. Proj. NFL Draft Picks where we rank 10th. And in average rating per player we rank 12th. So if you ask me where Purdue ranks I'd say about 10th.
One thing that might jump out at you though is that almost every Big Ten program has seemed to hit a wall at around 14 commits and then stopped taking players. This is almost certainly due to the new transfer rules and programs are leaving about 10 scholarships open for transfers. (Side effect of the new transfer rules: That's about 140 high school kids each year NOT getting into Big Ten programs. Whoops!)
The Big Ten as a whole is recruiting so much better the last few years. Purdue's 3.515-star average would rank about 10th in most years, but instead is 12th this year. Last year was a record-setter for the conference with a total average of 3.743 stars per player. 2022 is just barely below that at 3.719 stars per player.
Some thoughts on the rest of the Big Ten where I have the same access to data as I do with Purdue:
Here's Purdue's class as of right now. Jordan Buchanan is not listed due to not having any ratings yet.
Brady Allen and Joe Strickland are the obvious crown jewels of the class, Allen being the 3rd-highest rated QB in the Big Ten and Strickland being the 4th-highest rated D-lineman. Nic Caraway gets a special AA badge for being a US Army All-American bowl commit. Both he and Curtis Deville have moved up a decent amount in recent weeks. Kentrell Marks, Charlie Kenrich, and Roman Pitre are perhaps not being talked about enough.
Of the 14 listed commits above, 7 of them are offensive or defensive linemen. So while the offensive linemen aren't the highest-rated in the Big Ten Purdue could be making up for it in volume. And that's not me blowing smoke, by looking at Big Ten recruiting 2011-2016, about 10% of 3-star recruits wind up being NFL draft picks, while 4-star recruits get drafted at about a 25% rate. So rough math, 5 3-star linemen would be worth about 0.5 NFL draft picks, while 2 4-star recruits would be the equivalent of 0.5 NFL draft picks. There actually is value in loading up at a position even with lower-rated guys, you just got to hit on some of those lower-rated guys.
In terms of regions Purdue is doing really well in the Midwest, ranking 8th in avg stars of Midwest recruits. Purdue ranks 13th in Southern recruiting, hitting Louisiana hard with 3 commits out of the 5 from the South. Louisiana is not exactly a Big Ten hot bed, only Minnesota has another LA recruit at all. In the all-important in-state recruiting Purdue has 2 of the top 3 Big Ten commits in Allen and Strickland. IU has the rest of the top 5 though. Both Purdue and IU are doing a superb job of keeping top talent in-state, it's actually kind of weird to see.
After a clear dip in recruiting in 2021 Purdue seems to be righting the course back to what was becoming "normal" in the Brohm era. Just with significantly less commits than usual, which is a Big Ten trend I'll get into in a bit.
The "green-ness" of the cell is determined by the percentage of recruits that are of at least that rating in the class. As you can see the 14 guys we've recruited so far track more closely with 2020 than 2021.
So where do I rank Purdue?
I have us 8th in Class Points. The metric I actually prefer to use is Adj. Proj. NFL Draft Picks where we rank 10th. And in average rating per player we rank 12th. So if you ask me where Purdue ranks I'd say about 10th.
One thing that might jump out at you though is that almost every Big Ten program has seemed to hit a wall at around 14 commits and then stopped taking players. This is almost certainly due to the new transfer rules and programs are leaving about 10 scholarships open for transfers. (Side effect of the new transfer rules: That's about 140 high school kids each year NOT getting into Big Ten programs. Whoops!)
The Big Ten as a whole is recruiting so much better the last few years. Purdue's 3.515-star average would rank about 10th in most years, but instead is 12th this year. Last year was a record-setter for the conference with a total average of 3.743 stars per player. 2022 is just barely below that at 3.719 stars per player.
Some thoughts on the rest of the Big Ten where I have the same access to data as I do with Purdue:
- Penn State - They are the one program that is NOT leaving room for transfers and are instead recruiting as if there were no rule changes at all. This makes sense because from 2015-2020 Penn State did not start a single transfer on their team. It'll be interesting to see how this pays off for them as the rest of the conference is clearly going all-in on transfers. They are having a fine recruiting year, their third best avg rating per player since 2011.
- Ohio State - Nothing to say here. They continue to recruit at a level above everyone else in the Big Ten. They rank below Penn State just by the sheer volume of players Penn State is taking.
- Michigan State - With the fewer amount of players being taken in each class that makes Michigan State having at least 2 more players than most of the rest of the conference matter a lot more (and why I prefer my Proj. Draft Picks stat) but this looking like a solid rebound class for MSU after some lackluster results the last two years. Still a step below the glory days of the Dantonio era, but should help Mel Tucker should he stick around for these guys to become upperclassmen.
- Rutgers - Unlike MSU this is shockingly not a fluke at all, Rutgers is legitimately recruiting extremely well. This is absolutely, far and away the highest avg rating per recruit for Rutgers since their 2012 class... which was also recruited by Greg Schiano. Big Ten schools usually come in and pilfer the top talent in New Jersey, but right now Rutgers has the top 3 Big Ten commits in the state. They are also recruiting really well outside of New Jersey with the #2 Big Ten QB commit coming from Kentucky and a 4-star receiver from Florida. I think Rutgers will struggle a bit this year, but expect a sharp increase from Rutgers in the short term future. One oddity: Only 4 commits are on the defensive side of the ball.
- Indiana - Almost identical numbers and equally shocking, Indiana is also putting together the recruiting class of a lifetime. This one is being aided by close connections however (not that that doesn't count). By far their top-rated commit is Dasan McCullough, the RB coach's son. And they have an AA Bowl commit in Trevell Mullen, the younger brother of Tiawan Mullen their star in the secondary. Both of those commits will play in the secondary and should excel, those are not fluke recruits. IU does seem to be loading up on some higher rated guys with some yellow-orange flags though. Omar Cooper has the injury concerns, so does 4-star RB commit Gi'Bran Payne. And there's the weird situation with DJ Moore where everyone else seemed to pass on him for whatever reason.
- Michigan - UM has two high 4-star commits that are keeping their average up, but they are actually the only two commits they have whose average is about 4.000 stars. That would be their lowest amount in the modern recruiting era. Harbaugh is in win-now mode for sure and I imagine recruits are wondering if he'll actually be coaching there should they commit to him.
- Northwestern - The Wildcats are quietly recruiting at their highest average ever, and it's not like a couple 4-stars are holding everything up. Their floor is much higher than it has been in the past. They are recruiting particularly well on offense, with that average being the highest since the 2014 class that included Clayton Thorson and Justin Jackson who were high 4-stars themselves. I think Northwestern will be a poor man's Wisconsin going forward where they just keep trucking along doing what they're doing and being successful.
- Purdue - Have said a lot on us already, lol.
- Illinois - Usually there is a new coach bump when a school makes a new hire but at least on paper we're not seeing it with Illinois. Lovie Smith was all-in on transfers for years before the rule change so taking only 15 or so guys isn't a new concept for this program. There's a slight increase in the upper half of their recruiting this year, but not by a noteworthy amount imo. Maybe if they follow the Nebraska win with some more victories that will help them recruit.
- Minnesota - Fleck obviously came to Minnesota with all kinds of recruiting hype, the polar opposite of Bert at Illinois. However, that seems to have faded quite a bit with this class. It is the lowest average in the Fleck era (if I'm remembering correctly and Fleck was hired after 2017's signing day) and by a decent margin too. They rank 13th in the Big Ten, having not finished below 10th in the Fleck era. They have one 4-star commit, rating exactly 4.000 stars, and he is also their only commit above 3.8 stars.
- Wisconsin - Perhaps falling down to earth a bit after posting 3 incredible classes in a row, something Wisconsin was never really known for. I've seen Wisconsin fans down on their recruiting this year, but it's worth pointing out that this recruiting class lines up very closely to their 2018 class in the same way Purdue's 2022 class looks like their 2020. And guess what, Wisconsin's been pretty good since then anyway.
- Maryland - They just suffered two recent decommits that dropped them to here, but otherwise looks like the typical Maryland class under Locksley: A couple of super highly-rated skill position players, but almost forgetting about linemen altogether. In fact they have no defensive linemen committed yet, and only have one lower-rated 3-star offensive lineman. To the waiver wire!
- Iowa - I'm assuming this is one of those years where they don't have 25 scholarships available, maybe closer to 15. So on top of that they are leaving room for transfers, so they only have 9 commits which ranks them down here. They are probably the best program at turning 3-star players into NFL Draft picks so I wouldn't write off this class at all, as small as it is.
- Nebraska - Yeah, Nebraska is in what could be a long-term disaster. Scott Frost is a dead man walking and that makes it obviously hard to recruit anyone who has options.
