ysis? The smalls & quick's vs size and which coach has to counter-punch the other on substitution match up's makes this game more intriguing from a coaching chess-match standpoint.
Here's my main keys:
1. Free throws
We almost certainly know Purdue is going to suck at the foul line and IU is going to shoot twice as many as the good guys do. This has been the case with every Purdue conf game this year except for either Mich or Minn, forget which (I think it was the Mich game) where Purdue randomly was red-hot from the line and shot like 24 of 28, with RayDay going 11 for 11 or so.
So advantage IU.
2. Turnovers
Will Purdue have a lot of turnovers? Most games they have had double digits, and there is a tremendous drop in PG play when Jon Octeus comes out, but then they had only 6 vs Iowa the other day. If Purdue has 10 to 12-ish or more, I think IU will gain a serious advantage, even if they match Purdue, turnover for turnover, since IU has a superior transition game. So many of Purdue turnover margin swings are based on if AJ is having a good or bad footwork game. It doesn't even seem that he gets frustrated and then things snowball, to me it's almost more if he came mentally engaged that day which decides if he is going to be limited by foul trouble, or have a barrage of travels and get the ball repeatedly slapped away with his soft hands.
My guess is advantage IU, but this is a big key swing stat for me.
3. Tons of size vs no size
Purdue has the on-paper ability to dominate down low, and you'd think the only thing that could derail that is if the ref's screw Haas, as too many ref crews still appear to not know how to handle a player of his girth; when he comes in at least one member of the zebra crew is seemingly just waiting for him to pivot into a flopper so they can call the offensive foul on him. So you'd think Purdue will dominate down low and Haas and Hammons will combine for 35 and 20, but all-too-often. The Purdue big's unfortunately seem to play to the level of their competition, Hammons has admitted as much in a couple of sound bits. They should have completely dominated Gardner-Webb and Illinois, and guard play was the only reason we had a chance in either game. On the flipside, the Boiler bigs probably looked their best at Wisc, and fairly decent vs MD, even though both opponents had some size. Kaminsky should have been their toughest match up of the year and if it wasn't for a dominate day at the foul line, Haas/Hammons completely outplayed him and instead lost a chance to keep it close late because they couldn't make a FT or 3.
So advantage should be to Purdue, but this is a big crapshoot to me as Purdue's big's are often inexplicable invisible.
4. Three pointers
Unless this is the random game where Stephens hit's 5 or 6 in the 2nd half after a forgettable first half (it's happened 4 times this year I believe), or maybe Davis hits 3 again, of Edwards/Mathias randomly combine for 6, IU will make more 3's than Purdue, a lot more, probably 4 times more. If IU is on and hit's 10 or more, or if they are just hot early and can lead Purdue by 15 in the first half, IU will surely end up with the W.
Likely big advantage IU
Given the above, while my heart says IU will go 3-19 from deep and Hammons goes for 30, 15 and 7 as Crean has a minor convulsion from a diet Coke overdose.....I tend to agree with GBI's pick and come to the conclusion IU would win this game 7 or 8 out of 10 times it was played, at this moment. I'm saying close with 10 minutes and then IU pulls it out 77-69, closing out things at the line like MD, IL and Wisc did.
This post was edited on 1/28 10:51 AM by JHetfield99
Here's my main keys:
1. Free throws
We almost certainly know Purdue is going to suck at the foul line and IU is going to shoot twice as many as the good guys do. This has been the case with every Purdue conf game this year except for either Mich or Minn, forget which (I think it was the Mich game) where Purdue randomly was red-hot from the line and shot like 24 of 28, with RayDay going 11 for 11 or so.
So advantage IU.
2. Turnovers
Will Purdue have a lot of turnovers? Most games they have had double digits, and there is a tremendous drop in PG play when Jon Octeus comes out, but then they had only 6 vs Iowa the other day. If Purdue has 10 to 12-ish or more, I think IU will gain a serious advantage, even if they match Purdue, turnover for turnover, since IU has a superior transition game. So many of Purdue turnover margin swings are based on if AJ is having a good or bad footwork game. It doesn't even seem that he gets frustrated and then things snowball, to me it's almost more if he came mentally engaged that day which decides if he is going to be limited by foul trouble, or have a barrage of travels and get the ball repeatedly slapped away with his soft hands.
My guess is advantage IU, but this is a big key swing stat for me.
3. Tons of size vs no size
Purdue has the on-paper ability to dominate down low, and you'd think the only thing that could derail that is if the ref's screw Haas, as too many ref crews still appear to not know how to handle a player of his girth; when he comes in at least one member of the zebra crew is seemingly just waiting for him to pivot into a flopper so they can call the offensive foul on him. So you'd think Purdue will dominate down low and Haas and Hammons will combine for 35 and 20, but all-too-often. The Purdue big's unfortunately seem to play to the level of their competition, Hammons has admitted as much in a couple of sound bits. They should have completely dominated Gardner-Webb and Illinois, and guard play was the only reason we had a chance in either game. On the flipside, the Boiler bigs probably looked their best at Wisc, and fairly decent vs MD, even though both opponents had some size. Kaminsky should have been their toughest match up of the year and if it wasn't for a dominate day at the foul line, Haas/Hammons completely outplayed him and instead lost a chance to keep it close late because they couldn't make a FT or 3.
So advantage should be to Purdue, but this is a big crapshoot to me as Purdue's big's are often inexplicable invisible.
4. Three pointers
Unless this is the random game where Stephens hit's 5 or 6 in the 2nd half after a forgettable first half (it's happened 4 times this year I believe), or maybe Davis hits 3 again, of Edwards/Mathias randomly combine for 6, IU will make more 3's than Purdue, a lot more, probably 4 times more. If IU is on and hit's 10 or more, or if they are just hot early and can lead Purdue by 15 in the first half, IU will surely end up with the W.
Likely big advantage IU
Given the above, while my heart says IU will go 3-19 from deep and Hammons goes for 30, 15 and 7 as Crean has a minor convulsion from a diet Coke overdose.....I tend to agree with GBI's pick and come to the conclusion IU would win this game 7 or 8 out of 10 times it was played, at this moment. I'm saying close with 10 minutes and then IU pulls it out 77-69, closing out things at the line like MD, IL and Wisc did.
This post was edited on 1/28 10:51 AM by JHetfield99
