This game to me, has the potential to be either really ugly, or Purdue COULD surprise people and keep it close. Put it this way, I think there are coaches out there who could have Purdue in a decent position late based on the personnel I've seen, and their execution of some flawed coaching ideas.
1. Playing the right chess match. Anatoly Karpov used to seek to make small gains on each move and play for the better endgame. Garry Kasparov would take the better end game, but his style was to blow the game wide open in the middle game. We better play the former, not the latter. While Purdue needs to stay in control, you win against schools like Va Tech, Wisconsin (thinking back to 2000-2003, I can't believe I'm saying that, but whatever) etc. by executing and avoiding mistakes, but attempting to take a shot at the throat. If Purdue is getting surprise 10 yard gains by busting a run where they catch Va Tech and hitting a few passes where Va Tech doesn't think Purdue can hit them, that's a good sign. If you see Appleby and Jones locked together in a prolonged read, that's a bad sign.
2. To that end, you can't compress the middle of the field. What Shoop thinks he does is stretch the field horizontally. What he does can be observed on the first play v. Indiana State. They line up in a three receiver set where the three receivers are spaced wide enough. Then, right before the play, the receiver to the left and slot receiver motion and set up behind the tackles. Well, for one, if you try that run that Purdue tried, have fun when Virginia Tech knocks you into next week. However, the better question is, what if you pass out of that lineup!? You're expecting Appleby to get through reads and get a quick, accurate pass to an open receiver when only one receiver is in position to threaten the back corner of the defense? The defense, in an alignment like this, will compress to the middle. They'll cheat to the middle knowing that the deep pass threat has been cut by 33%. It's a lineup I've seen work for one team (not saying there haven't been others). So, sweet, just go get a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits and Vince Young, basically the team that beat USC in the Rose Bowl, and then that formation is probably fine.
Purdue needs to prove that they can get a 4-5 yard run running Jones or Knox straight up, with much less read option, and then the receivers must space the field and try to work someone open. Their best shot is probably to drive Va Tech's talented corners up field and try to either get a pass coming back or work someone open underneath, but not too far underneath. Against Va Tech, you're always hoping if you stay disciplined yet aggressive, you can catch them losing contain.
3. Appleby! While I'm critical of Shoop, I'm not an absolutist. Appleby has the Cutler issue. Their are generally four things that can doom a physically able passer. a) Lack of preparation (Jeff George), b) Billy the Kid issues/"I CAN throw to Muhsin Muhammad when Hayden clearly didn't bite on the double move" (Rex Grossman), c) getting through reads too slow and getting pummeled instead of hitting your 4th read open (Jay Cutler) and d) accuracy (a LOT of people). Appleby struggles with d, but his real struggle has been c. He must get through his reads quickly. This presumes that Shoop has receivers where they're supposed to be to create an opening, and not where he feels like putting them cause it's a really fun idea. If receivers are where any jamoke would put them with a QB with AA's arm, then there are two bad signs. If he holds the ball and then makes a mistake late, it means he had time to get to his 4th read, but he only could process 2 reads in that tme and therefore panicked and blew it. OR he only gets through 2 reads in that time and gets popped in the face.
4. Virginia Tech's new QB. It's never good to have a QB in there who wasn't the guy who got all of your reps as camp winded down and into the first week. I'm sure Brenden Motley is a talented kid. But you're just hoping their timing is off or there are some bumps in the road. You're hoping if Purdue gets after it and executes, Va Tech hits some speed bumps and is around 17 points in the 4th, so that if you've played a good game in all 3 phases, maybe you get to 21.
If Purdue is going 3 and out, turning the ball over and blowing executions on defense, it won't matter. However, if they have a well timed game and there is pressure on Motley, that could be their opening.
5. Where Purdue chooses to make Virginia Tech beat them. Do they do the wise thing and say to Va Tech, as Marshall said to Purdue... "SHOW US that you can beat us with a pass deep over the top. If you show us, fine. But we'll take the space away underneath and make you beat us deep one on one." It turns out, they got beat deep once, and more than made up for it by taking underneath space away from Purdue all game.
Mark my words. If Purdue chooses to take away the deep corner with TOO MANY DEFENDERS, out of this weird belief that you can get beat underneath all day, and that's better than the embarrassment of that one big play that ends up on Sportscenter... it's going to be a LONG DAY.
However, if Purdue doesn't leave an area the size of the Virginia's open smack in the middle of the field and makes Virginia Tech beat them one on one, well, that's a good sign. It shows you actually believe in those corners that are so touted.
6. Knox and Jones. If Purdue goes to a straight spread, 3 WR look and actually just hands off, those two are going to have to runs that Virginia Tech can easily make into 0-2 yard runs into 2-4 yard runs.
7. One receiver needs to be a complete receiver. We need one guy to prove that he can not only eek out a deep pass or two, but also at the same time be a threat to be an easy outlet for Appleby.
My prediction: I HOPE I'm wrong and that the coaching staff figures it out and the Boilers work out the rest of my list.
Virginia Tech 33
Purdue 16
With more questions than answers. And if Purdue has a perfect storm, this game could easily be worse.
1. Playing the right chess match. Anatoly Karpov used to seek to make small gains on each move and play for the better endgame. Garry Kasparov would take the better end game, but his style was to blow the game wide open in the middle game. We better play the former, not the latter. While Purdue needs to stay in control, you win against schools like Va Tech, Wisconsin (thinking back to 2000-2003, I can't believe I'm saying that, but whatever) etc. by executing and avoiding mistakes, but attempting to take a shot at the throat. If Purdue is getting surprise 10 yard gains by busting a run where they catch Va Tech and hitting a few passes where Va Tech doesn't think Purdue can hit them, that's a good sign. If you see Appleby and Jones locked together in a prolonged read, that's a bad sign.
2. To that end, you can't compress the middle of the field. What Shoop thinks he does is stretch the field horizontally. What he does can be observed on the first play v. Indiana State. They line up in a three receiver set where the three receivers are spaced wide enough. Then, right before the play, the receiver to the left and slot receiver motion and set up behind the tackles. Well, for one, if you try that run that Purdue tried, have fun when Virginia Tech knocks you into next week. However, the better question is, what if you pass out of that lineup!? You're expecting Appleby to get through reads and get a quick, accurate pass to an open receiver when only one receiver is in position to threaten the back corner of the defense? The defense, in an alignment like this, will compress to the middle. They'll cheat to the middle knowing that the deep pass threat has been cut by 33%. It's a lineup I've seen work for one team (not saying there haven't been others). So, sweet, just go get a bunch of 4 and 5 star recruits and Vince Young, basically the team that beat USC in the Rose Bowl, and then that formation is probably fine.
Purdue needs to prove that they can get a 4-5 yard run running Jones or Knox straight up, with much less read option, and then the receivers must space the field and try to work someone open. Their best shot is probably to drive Va Tech's talented corners up field and try to either get a pass coming back or work someone open underneath, but not too far underneath. Against Va Tech, you're always hoping if you stay disciplined yet aggressive, you can catch them losing contain.
3. Appleby! While I'm critical of Shoop, I'm not an absolutist. Appleby has the Cutler issue. Their are generally four things that can doom a physically able passer. a) Lack of preparation (Jeff George), b) Billy the Kid issues/"I CAN throw to Muhsin Muhammad when Hayden clearly didn't bite on the double move" (Rex Grossman), c) getting through reads too slow and getting pummeled instead of hitting your 4th read open (Jay Cutler) and d) accuracy (a LOT of people). Appleby struggles with d, but his real struggle has been c. He must get through his reads quickly. This presumes that Shoop has receivers where they're supposed to be to create an opening, and not where he feels like putting them cause it's a really fun idea. If receivers are where any jamoke would put them with a QB with AA's arm, then there are two bad signs. If he holds the ball and then makes a mistake late, it means he had time to get to his 4th read, but he only could process 2 reads in that tme and therefore panicked and blew it. OR he only gets through 2 reads in that time and gets popped in the face.
4. Virginia Tech's new QB. It's never good to have a QB in there who wasn't the guy who got all of your reps as camp winded down and into the first week. I'm sure Brenden Motley is a talented kid. But you're just hoping their timing is off or there are some bumps in the road. You're hoping if Purdue gets after it and executes, Va Tech hits some speed bumps and is around 17 points in the 4th, so that if you've played a good game in all 3 phases, maybe you get to 21.
If Purdue is going 3 and out, turning the ball over and blowing executions on defense, it won't matter. However, if they have a well timed game and there is pressure on Motley, that could be their opening.
5. Where Purdue chooses to make Virginia Tech beat them. Do they do the wise thing and say to Va Tech, as Marshall said to Purdue... "SHOW US that you can beat us with a pass deep over the top. If you show us, fine. But we'll take the space away underneath and make you beat us deep one on one." It turns out, they got beat deep once, and more than made up for it by taking underneath space away from Purdue all game.
Mark my words. If Purdue chooses to take away the deep corner with TOO MANY DEFENDERS, out of this weird belief that you can get beat underneath all day, and that's better than the embarrassment of that one big play that ends up on Sportscenter... it's going to be a LONG DAY.
However, if Purdue doesn't leave an area the size of the Virginia's open smack in the middle of the field and makes Virginia Tech beat them one on one, well, that's a good sign. It shows you actually believe in those corners that are so touted.
6. Knox and Jones. If Purdue goes to a straight spread, 3 WR look and actually just hands off, those two are going to have to runs that Virginia Tech can easily make into 0-2 yard runs into 2-4 yard runs.
7. One receiver needs to be a complete receiver. We need one guy to prove that he can not only eek out a deep pass or two, but also at the same time be a threat to be an easy outlet for Appleby.
My prediction: I HOPE I'm wrong and that the coaching staff figures it out and the Boilers work out the rest of my list.
Virginia Tech 33
Purdue 16
With more questions than answers. And if Purdue has a perfect storm, this game could easily be worse.
