This was all set off when Nebraska joined the B1G in 2011. Nebraska was fed up with the Texas focused direction of the conference and the B1G was looking to add a 12th team to get a conference championship game.
1) When Nebraska left for the B1G in 2011, the Pac12 could have had Texas, Texas Tech, OU, and OSU, but the deal fell through when the Pac12 refused to allow Texas to keep revenue from the Longhorn Network. If those schools joined the Pac12, the Longhorn Network probably remains a bust, they are all folded into the Pac16 now and things may have stabilized with the B12 being this quasi P5 conference as it will be existing. Hindsight being 20/20, that would have been a significant boon for the Pac12 and they should have accepted that deal. The SoCal/Oregon/Texas/OU rivalries and in flux of recruiting territory would have lifted all boats.
2) Then the following year in 2012, with PSU sniffing around the ACC due to it's geographic affinity for the ACC, the B1G added Rutgers and Maryland, (coming aboard in 2014) both increasing revenue across the board and giving PSU two east coast programs. There was a very real threat PSU was leaving at the time.
In that one year (2011-2012), what I think you would have seen is the following and probably no other fallout that we have seen:
Pac16:
Texas
Texas Tech
OU
OSU
Arizona
ASU
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal
Oregon
OSU
Washington
WSU
Utah
Colorado
B1G (with 12):
OSU
IU
Purdue
UM
MSU
IL
NW
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
Kansas
SEC (with its current 14):
UK
Vandy
UT
UGA
USC
FL
Bama
Auburn
Ole Miss
MSU
LSU
A&M (this was a fait accompli, they wanted to get to the SEC, and would not have remained).
Mizzou (they needed to add an additional team and would not have raided the ACC at the time).
Arkansas
ACC (no Louisville or ND, adds PSU to be 14):
BC
Clemson
Duke
FSU
GT
Miami
UNC
NC State
Pitt
Syracuse
UVA
VT
Wake
PSU
B12 basically dissolves into a Group of 6 conferences with the remaining members of:
Baylor
ISU
KSU
as KU would have gone B1G
OU Pac16
OSU Pac16
UT Pac16
TT Pac16
They would have picked up TCU and WVU like they did, probably taken Louisville instead of going ACC, and been a weakened conference.
There would have been basically 4 major conferences:
B1G with 12 (PSU leaving and adding KU)
ACC with 14 (adding PSU, Pitt, and Syracuse)
SEC with 14 (as currently constructed)
Pac16 with 16 (adding UT, TT, OU, and OSU)
ND remains fully independent in football and has scheduling opportunities similar to what they currently have.
In that scenario, one can make the argument the SEC would be top dog with the three remaining conferences playing second fiddle. The B1G certainly would be in a much different space than it currently is.
Anyways, it is fascinating to look back on those years in 2011-2012 that have led us to where we are today. The two decisions highlighted above I think are the two biggest factors in where we currently are.
1) When Nebraska left for the B1G in 2011, the Pac12 could have had Texas, Texas Tech, OU, and OSU, but the deal fell through when the Pac12 refused to allow Texas to keep revenue from the Longhorn Network. If those schools joined the Pac12, the Longhorn Network probably remains a bust, they are all folded into the Pac16 now and things may have stabilized with the B12 being this quasi P5 conference as it will be existing. Hindsight being 20/20, that would have been a significant boon for the Pac12 and they should have accepted that deal. The SoCal/Oregon/Texas/OU rivalries and in flux of recruiting territory would have lifted all boats.
2) Then the following year in 2012, with PSU sniffing around the ACC due to it's geographic affinity for the ACC, the B1G added Rutgers and Maryland, (coming aboard in 2014) both increasing revenue across the board and giving PSU two east coast programs. There was a very real threat PSU was leaving at the time.
In that one year (2011-2012), what I think you would have seen is the following and probably no other fallout that we have seen:
Pac16:
Texas
Texas Tech
OU
OSU
Arizona
ASU
USC
UCLA
Stanford
Cal
Oregon
OSU
Washington
WSU
Utah
Colorado
B1G (with 12):
OSU
IU
Purdue
UM
MSU
IL
NW
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Iowa
Nebraska
Kansas
SEC (with its current 14):
UK
Vandy
UT
UGA
USC
FL
Bama
Auburn
Ole Miss
MSU
LSU
A&M (this was a fait accompli, they wanted to get to the SEC, and would not have remained).
Mizzou (they needed to add an additional team and would not have raided the ACC at the time).
Arkansas
ACC (no Louisville or ND, adds PSU to be 14):
BC
Clemson
Duke
FSU
GT
Miami
UNC
NC State
Pitt
Syracuse
UVA
VT
Wake
PSU
B12 basically dissolves into a Group of 6 conferences with the remaining members of:
Baylor
ISU
KSU
as KU would have gone B1G
OU Pac16
OSU Pac16
UT Pac16
TT Pac16
They would have picked up TCU and WVU like they did, probably taken Louisville instead of going ACC, and been a weakened conference.
There would have been basically 4 major conferences:
B1G with 12 (PSU leaving and adding KU)
ACC with 14 (adding PSU, Pitt, and Syracuse)
SEC with 14 (as currently constructed)
Pac16 with 16 (adding UT, TT, OU, and OSU)
ND remains fully independent in football and has scheduling opportunities similar to what they currently have.
In that scenario, one can make the argument the SEC would be top dog with the three remaining conferences playing second fiddle. The B1G certainly would be in a much different space than it currently is.
Anyways, it is fascinating to look back on those years in 2011-2012 that have led us to where we are today. The two decisions highlighted above I think are the two biggest factors in where we currently are.
