The Good, The Bad and the... Recap of Purdue Basketball

Feb 19, 2020
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I was talking to a friend about Purdue basketball. I summed it up to him in this way. Thought I'd share.


THE GOOD: The 3 year success in the 2016-17, 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons, especially considering:
  • 2016-17 Sweet 16 loss to #1 Kansas in tournament.
  • 2017-18 Sweet 16 loss. Purdue’s center breaking his arm in the previous NCAA tournament game
  • 2018-19 Elite 8 miracle shot by #1 Virginia to tie the game on a shot with .3 remaining and send to OT. Virginia was down by 3 with 5.9 seconds to go.

THE BAD: Check out what the results of the last 3 years has produced along with the 2015-16 season.
  • 2021-22 Sweet 16 loss to a #15 seed when Purdue had a 91% win probability
  • 2020-21 Round 64 loss to a #13 seed (OT) when Purdue had a 74% win probability
  • 2019-20 Probably miss the tournament.
  • 2015-16 Round 64 loss to a #12 seed (2OT). Purdue was up 13 with 3:33 to go!!!

RECAP: The last 6 years (not counting COVID 2019-2020 year)
  • 5 NCAA seeds of #4 or lower; the other seed was a #5
  • 4 Sweet 16 games out of 6 tournaments. 1 Elite 8. 3 NCAA OT games (all losses, 2 of which Purdue should have won in regulation)
  • BIG10 finish 1st twice and top 4 all 6 seasons
  • AP final rank between 10-20 with an average of 13.5
  • A heck of a lot of wins, Purdue has won 26, 27, 30, 26, 29 games in full seasons (2020-21 had shortened year).
  • 156-52 or 75% win percentage
  • If you count the COVID year (2019-2020 not shown), the last 3 years have been disappointing.

So does one complain? Or enjoy the sustained success of the program? That’s the challenge. Expectations have gone up due to the 2016-2019 success and recruiting uptick.

YearWinsLosses
AP
Final
Rank
NCAA SeedNCAA ResultOpp. SeedLost to Team:ScoreComments:
BIG10 Reg Season Finish
2021-22
29​
8​
10​
3​
Sweet 16 Loss
15 seed​
St. Peter's67-64Purdue win probability 91.1% Prioritized offensive over defensive players.
3​
2020-21
18​
10​
20​
4​
Round 64 Loss
13 seed​
North Texas78-69 OTPurdue win probability 74.1%
4​
2018-19
26​
10​
13​
3​
Elite 8 Loss
1 seed​
Virginia80-75 OT*Should have won that game. Virginia had miracle buzzer beater to tie.
1​
2017-18
30​
7​
11​
2​
Sweet 16 Loss
3 seed​
Texas Tech78-65*Center broke his arm in previous game. TT coach is Chris Beard
2​
2016-17
27​
8​
15​
4​
Sweet 16 Loss
1 seed​
Kansas98-6647-40 at half. Got ugly after halftime.
1​
2015-16
26​
9​
12​
5​
Round 64 Loss
12 seed​
Little Rock85-83 2OTPurdue was up 13 with 3:33 to play. LR coach is Chris Beard.
3​
 

BoilerMaker P

True Freshman
Nov 28, 2001
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That’s a solid recap. In reply to your questions at the end of the post, I’d say that the further we have gotten from 1980, the consistently good (maybe even overachieving) regular season success, and with the heartbreak against Virginia, the majority of the Purdue fan base has refocused on wanting to see real postseason success. For some, consistent sweet 16s = success, others want to see that elusive final four appearance and I’d hate to see what some of the fans would be willing to do or give up for a national championship. I understand both point of views, but I’m probably in the camp that I’d trade a couple of down years in the big ten for a final four/national championship any day of the week and twice on Sunday.

I also think the tournament upsets to 12 seeds and higher need to stop. Kentucky’s loss to St. Peter’s broke a streak of UK beating 30 straight double digit seed teams in NCAAT games. So, yeah, upsets happen but they should be rare.
 

FLAG HUNTER

Junior
Oct 2, 2014
2,135
1,820
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Guess it depends what your goals are! Good record during season, make the tournament or go to final four! Just a few of the goals I thought of , there are more of course!
 
Jan 29, 2002
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making it to the Sweet 16 year after year should yield a breakthrough sooner than later to get to the final four

This isn't going to hurt recruiting either, where you can get a top 50 person to be that missing link to get that first national championship for Purdue
 
Dec 20, 2021
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525
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I think if you'd offer any P6 school an average of 26 wins, a 5 seed or higher and two conference titles for the next 6 years, the only ones turning it down are likely UK, Duke, UNC, Kansas and Nova.
 
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BoilerMaker P

True Freshman
Nov 28, 2001
835
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I think if you'd offer any P6 school an average of 26 wins, a 5 seed or higher and two conference titles for the next 6 years, the only ones turning it down are likely UK, Duke, UNC, Kansas and Nova.
But that’s kind of the point, it would make sense that if you were good enough to average 26 wins and 5 seed or higher and win your conference twice in the next 6 years that you would be good enough to break through to the final four in one of those years. Four of the five you suspect would turn it down were in the final four this year and the other one has a national championship and 2 additional final fours in the last 10 years.
 

DAG10

All-American
Nov 2, 2018
5,709
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But that’s kind of the point, it would make sense that if you were good enough to average 26 wins and 5 seed or higher and win your conference twice in the next 6 years that you would be good enough to break through to the final four in one of those years. Four of the five you suspect would turn it down were in the final four this year and the other one has a national championship and 2 additional final fours in the last 10 years.
Bingo...as, while on the surface, that looks enticing...if you throw in that you miss the tournament once, you lose twice in the first round to teams that should have essentially no chance of beating you, then, in a year in which you reached #1 in the polls...your bracket was completely busted, and, you lose to a 15-seed in the Sweet 16...I am in the minority I guess, but, I pass on that...and, I am guessing that more than just UK, Duke, UNC, Kansas and 'Nova do as well.

Right now...Saint Peter's has as many E8 appearances as Purdue/Painter in the last 17 years...circumstances have played some part in that, but, so have some just brutal performances and epic collapses.
 
Feb 19, 2020
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Disagree about the supposed recruiting uptick. We have 4 recruits coming in next year, not one is in the rivals top 100. That’s just going to lead to more of the same(early tournament exits).
Perspective. Top 100 in their respective class? Per 247, which aggregates multiple ratings websites.
- 2020 - 2 in the top 103
- 2021 - 2 more
- 2022 - close to 2 more, rankings are not final
- 2023 - 2 more, rankings are not final

Just want to look at stars? How's this comparison?
From 2013-2019 - (5) 4 stars signed
From 2020-2023 - There's (7) 4 stars.

I'll also throw out there Purdue's all time modern recruiting rankings. These ratings are as of today, mind you the older classes were higher on the list when they signed. The new recruits keep knocking them down.

Everyone under 26th is a 4 star recruit.

2023 - DGL 17th, Top 100 in class
2023 - Colvin 19th, Top 100 in class

2022 - Loyer 18th, Top 100 in class
2022 - Heide 28th, 121st in class. Injuries seem to be holding him back / falling in rating.

2021 - Kaufman 4th, Top 100 in class
2021 - Furst 6th, Top 100 in class

2020 - Ivey 12th, Top 100 in class
2020 - Morton 16th, 103rd in class.
2020 - Edey say what you want. He was a starter by year 2.

2019 - Newman 27th .9348

2018 - Hunter 30th .9282
2018 - Williams 31st .9277

Good things to come. Don't know how true it is but supposedly Waddell was impressing NBA scouts before his ACL.
 
Apr 5, 2022
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Over the last 6 years like you looked at, Purdue should have won 9.05 tournament games based on its seeding according to this data:


In reality, Purdue won 9 games, while really leaving the door open to grabbing some more. I think it's fair to say objectively that Purdue has caught some bad breaks. Haas got injured, and the team lost some 50/50 games like Virginia, North Texas, St. Peters, while really only winning a 50/50 game vs Tennessee.

I think people underestimate how hard it can be to make tournament runs. Virginia has made it out of the first round once in the past 5 seasons. Who knows how differently we would view their program if they didn't come back from a halftime deficit to a 16 seed then win 3 games in a row where they were losing by 3 with less than 10 seconds to go to win the title. I'd certainly trade a championship and first round exits for 4 Sweet 16s regardless.
 

purduepat1969

All-American
Sep 28, 2011
13,816
19,863
113
Over the last 6 years like you looked at, Purdue should have won 9.05 tournament games based on its seeding according to this data:


In reality, Purdue won 9 games, while really leaving the door open to grabbing some more. I think it's fair to say objectively that Purdue has caught some bad breaks. Haas got injured, and the team lost some 50/50 games like Virginia, North Texas, St. Peters, while really only winning a 50/50 game vs Tennessee.

I think people underestimate how hard it can be to make tournament runs. Virginia has made it out of the first round once in the past 5 seasons. Who knows how differently we would view their program if they didn't come back from a halftime deficit to a 16 seed then win 3 games in a row where they were losing by 3 with less than 10 seconds to go to win the title. I'd certainly trade a championship and first round exits for 4 Sweet 16s regardless.
Yes, bad breaks. But Purdue also had ample opportunities that it squandered away in losing to St Peters, North Texas, etc...
 

Wolegib

All-American
May 23, 2013
9,276
5,413
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i can except bad breaks once or twice, but not every single year. other teams have chalk boards and the y talk about past failures and the y don't let them happen again. but not purdue. we do the same thing every single year. I wouldn't be upset at losing if we did so to a top 10 team. But losing to northen texas and st peters and arkansas little rock and a bad cincy team? al we accomplished is getting their coaches a new and better job.
 
Oct 15, 2021
381
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Disagree about the supposed recruiting uptick. We have 4 recruits coming in next year, not one is in the rivals top 100. That’s just going to lead to more of the same(early tournament exits).
In 2019, Nojel Eastern was the only player Purdue had that was a consensus top 100 recruit, and that team was 1 miracle pass away by Virginia from the FF. I think Painter and Purdue will break through to the FF before his time is over.
 

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