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The Absurdity of Zach Edey (STATS!)

Apr 5, 2022
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I was scrolling SportsReference the other day and got dragged down this rabbit hole of comparing Edey's prorated stats versus some other really good players over the past 15 years that these stats have been recorded. It's pretty crazy to me to see how much of an outlier he is to any other Center I could find, all while being the youngest and least-recruited of the group. Stats can be misleading, so I'm not saying he's better than all of these guys or anything, but Purdue is lucky to have him for, potentially, 2 more seasons, and I'm interested to see how much his minutes can increase or should increase this year without Trevion but with the option to play 5-out and have more defensive versatility with Furst.

CONTEXT
NameZach EdeyKofi CockburnTrayce Jackson-DavisHunter DickinsonOscar TshiebweLuka GarzaFrank KaminskyDemarcus CousinsTyler Hansbrough
Season202220222022202220222021201520102009
ClassSophomoreJuniorJuniorSophomoreJuniorSeniorSeniorFreshmanSenior
Accolades2nd Team All Big Ten1st Team AA2nd Team All Big Ten2nd Team All Big TenNational POYNational POYNational POY1stTeam AA1st Team AA
Age192221212222211923
HS Rank44046304331118242310

I just picked out the stats that I thought are most relevant to centers, and these were the first 8 really good power conference players I thought to compare him to (that these stats were available for).

GRAPHS


The thing that stands out to me is the Assists. The casual fan that tunes into 1 or 2 games a year might say he's just tall, but he's passing better than all but Kaminsky. And if rebounding were directly correlated 1:1 to height, guys like Tshiebwe and Trevion who are 6'9 or so wouldn't rebound at almost double the rate of someone like Dickinson who is 7'2.
 
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Zach has some pretty insane stats. I like the FG% at 64. His FT% is around 65. Let’s be honest, above 70 would be insane for a man of his size. Kareem was a 72% career shooter and obviously he wasn’t bad.

I think the pro scouts would like him to show a 15 footer or maybe a 3. Zach rebounds really well. He will need to improve in his rim protection and being able to defend the perimeter better, but I think he can has a shot.

A creative NBA coach could use Edey effectively. There are lots of NBA teams that don’t play very big that would have all kinds of problems keeping him out of the paint or off the glass. Certain defensive matchups might hurt him, but I’d like to see him get a chance in a few years.
 
Zach has some pretty insane stats. I like the FG% at 64. His FT% is around 65. Let’s be honest, above 70 would be insane for a man of his size. Kareem was a 72% career shooter and obviously he wasn’t bad.

I think the pro scouts would like him to show a 15 footer or maybe a 3. Zach rebounds really well. He will need to improve in his rim protection and being able to defend the perimeter better, but I think he can has a shot.

A creative NBA coach could use Edey effectively. There are lots of NBA teams that don’t play very big that would have all kinds of problems keeping him out of the paint or off the glass. Certain defensive matchups might hurt him, but I’d like to see him get a chance in a few years.
Obviously I would love to see Zach succeed in the NBA, but for me it's almost impossible to see. I think that's why Painter deserves more credit for building a system that suits his players and gets the most out of them. I can see Edey being on a roster but only playing in extremely unique situations like Boban sort of plays. The NBA has less of a playstyle diversity than college where Purdue can feed the post and other teams almost only shoot 3s.

It will be hard for him to show a jump shot in college because he's so good at getting offensive rebounds and is always posting up. And his defense is obviously the biggest issue (and the thing that is hidden when you look at statistics, as there is no way to track this). Dickinson has a jump shot and still isn't getting any NBA looks. That's why even Jokic can look almost unplayable at times in the playoffs as the back-to-back MVP.

People like to say Painter's lack of NBA success is this big mark on him, but I almost see it as the opposite of that. To me, it's a lot worse to get almost nothing out of someone like Jaren Jackson Jr. who is now a star in the NBA. Edey, Carsen, and Swanigan don't have the right combination of size and quickness to play in today's NBA, and Purdue has put them in a position to have the opportunity to put their foot in the door, and that's all you can do as a college coach.
 
Obviously I would love to see Zach succeed in the NBA, but for me it's almost impossible to see. I think that's why Painter deserves more credit for building a system that suits his players and gets the most out of them. I can see Edey being on a roster but only playing in extremely unique situations like Boban sort of plays. The NBA has less of a playstyle diversity than college where Purdue can feed the post and other teams almost only shoot 3s.

It will be hard for him to show a jump shot in college because he's so good at getting offensive rebounds and is always posting up. And his defense is obviously the biggest issue (and the thing that is hidden when you look at statistics, as there is no way to track this). Dickinson has a jump shot and still isn't getting any NBA looks. That's why even Jokic can look almost unplayable at times in the playoffs as the back-to-back MVP.

People like to say Painter's lack of NBA success is this big mark on him, but I almost see it as the opposite of that. To me, it's a lot worse to get almost nothing out of someone like Jaren Jackson Jr. who is now a star in the NBA. Edey, Carsen, and Swanigan don't have the right combination of size and quickness to play in today's NBA, and Purdue has put them in a position to have the opportunity to put their foot in the door, and that's all you can do as a college coach.
Just my opinion, I don’t think Edey would go early. I doubt a 5th year would happen though. No guarantees the NBA thing will happen, but not completely out of the question.

Edey is unique in college basketball. Very efficient. He’s just going to get better with more experience.
 
I was scrolling SportsReference the other day and got dragged down this rabbit hole of comparing Edey's prorated stats versus some other really good players over the past 15 years that these stats have been recorded. It's pretty crazy to me to see how much of an outlier he is to any other Center I could find, all while being the youngest and least-recruited of the group. Stats can be misleading, so I'm not saying he's better than all of these guys or anything, but Purdue is lucky to have him for, potentially, 2 more seasons, and I'm interested to see how much his minutes can increase or should increase this year without Trevion but with the option to play 5-out and have more defensive versatility with Furst.

CONTEXT
NameZach EdeyKofi CockburnTrayce Jackson-DavisHunter DickinsonOscar TshiebweLuka GarzaFrank KaminskyDemarcus CousinsTyler Hansbrough
Season202220222022202220222021201520102009
ClassSophomoreJuniorJuniorSophomoreJuniorSeniorSeniorFreshmanSenior
Accolades2nd Team All Big Ten1st Team AA2nd Team All Big Ten2nd Team All Big TenNational POYNational POYNational POY1stTeam AA1st Team AA
Age192221212222211923
HS Rank44046304331118242310

I just picked out the stats that I thought are most relevant to centers, and these were the first 8 really good power conference players I thought to compare him to (that these stats were available for).

GRAPHS


The thing that stands out to me is the Assists. The casual fan that tunes into 1 or 2 games a year might say he's just tall, but he's passing better than all but Kaminsky. And if rebounding were directly correlated 1:1 to height, guys like Tshiebwe and Trevion who are 6'9 or so wouldn't rebound at almost double the rate of someone like Dickinson who is 7'2.

Thanks for sharing. It's amazing to Edey is in the same conversation with Kofi, TJD, Tshiebwe, Garza, Kaminsky, Cousins, Hansbrough. That's why I find it absurd that folks keep saying they don't want any more centers like Edey but more mobile ones. I am not against mobile centers, but do you prefer Edey or Haarms? Edey or Jaquil Taylor? Edey or Dowuona? Edey is very mobile for his size. We have a really good one and if there is another Edey, I hope Painter signs him up in a heartbeat.
 
Thanks for sharing. It's amazing to Edey is in the same conversation with Kofi, TJD, Tshiebwe, Garza, Kaminsky, Cousins, Hansbrough. That's why I find it absurd that folks keep saying they don't want any more centers like Edey but more mobile ones. I am not against mobile centers, but do you prefer Edey or Haarms? Edey or Jaquil Taylor? Edey or Dowuona? Edey is very mobile for his size. We have a really good one and if there is another Edey, I hope Painter signs him up in a heartbeat.
Painter would take another Haas or Edey in a heartbeat. Painter can work the offense around a low post threat or someone more mobile. We’ve certainly had some good teams with big guys. I like the team with Edey, hopefully for 2 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t make the tournament both years.
 
Thanks for sharing. It's amazing to Edey is in the same conversation with Kofi, TJD, Tshiebwe, Garza, Kaminsky, Cousins, Hansbrough. That's why I find it absurd that folks keep saying they don't want any more centers like Edey but more mobile ones. I am not against mobile centers, but do you prefer Edey or Haarms? Edey or Jaquil Taylor? Edey or Dowuona? Edey is very mobile for his size. We have a really good one and if there is another Edey, I hope Painter signs him up in a heartbeat.
I would take Edey over all of those other Purdue centers you mentioned! I’m not sure I’d take him over Dickinson and some of the other elite centers on other teams! I have to believe his ceiling is identical to Haas!
 
Thanks for sharing. It's amazing to Edey is in the same conversation with Kofi, TJD, Tshiebwe, Garza, Kaminsky, Cousins, Hansbrough. That's why I find it absurd that folks keep saying they don't want any more centers like Edey but more mobile ones. I am not against mobile centers, but do you prefer Edey or Haarms? Edey or Jaquil Taylor? Edey or Dowuona? Edey is very mobile for his size. We have a really good one and if there is another Edey, I hope Painter signs him up in a heartbeat.
Obviously you take Edey on your team any day, but if you offered me a center who's as good as Edey overall but is more well balanced in terms of having some more defense, ball handling, shooting, etc. I'd take that.

I think there's too many variables with having bigs as your primary offensive options that complicate winning over having a guard-oriented team. You have to first get the ball into the post consistently, bigs will get doubled and harassed if guards can't make plays or shoot, and the game is much more reliant on referees calling fouls consistently. Also, typically, offensive star centers like Edey, Haas, Swanigan, Cockburn, Garza, Kaminsky, etc. are defensive liabilities in certain matchups.
 
I would take Edey over all of those other Purdue centers you mentioned! I’m not sure I’d take him over Dickinson and some of the other elite centers on other teams! I have to believe his ceiling is identical to Haas!
I think Edey is already way ahead of Haas. I'm not sure what Haas did better than Edey outside of maybe turning it over slightly less and being a better free throw shooter. And Edey is still on a rapid development plan after having not played much before Purdue.
 
I think Edey is already way ahead of Haas. I'm not sure what Haas did better than Edey outside of maybe turning it over slightly less and being a better free throw shooter. And Edey is still on a rapid development plan after having not played much before Purdue.
I remember a lot of players who excelled as freshmen and great things were expected of them and they never rose much higher. Eddy’s future will depend on if Painter alllows him to play full time as in 30+ mins a game, Or if Painter decided to platoon him with Furst.

Haas made it to the NBA. That’s actually a pretty high ceiling. Look at Carsen, Garza and Frank the tank. They all made it to the NBA as well. I see Edey becoming a dominant college center. I don’t see his game translating very well to the NBA style of play. Will Edey be better than Tre? I say they are on par!
 
Zach has some pretty insane stats. I like the FG% at 64. His FT% is around 65. Let’s be honest, above 70 would be insane for a man of his size. Kareem was a 72% career shooter and obviously he wasn’t bad.

I think the pro scouts would like him to show a 15 footer or maybe a 3. Zach rebounds really well. He will need to improve in his rim protection and being able to defend the perimeter better, but I think he can has a shot.

A creative NBA coach could use Edey effectively. There are lots of NBA teams that don’t play very big that would have all kinds of problems keeping him out of the paint or off the glass. Certain defensive matchups might hurt him, but I’d like to see him get a chance in a few years.
Zach’s 64% FT for one year or even 67% FT for two years is pretty much ho-hum. There have been many NBA players 7’3” or taller that had career average percent higher than Kareem and much higher than Zach.

Yao Ming 7’6” - 83%
Kristaps Porzingis 7’3” - 82%
Arvydas Sabonis 7’3” - 79%
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 7’3” - 78%
Rick Smits 7’4” - 77%
Boban Marjanuvic 7’4” - 77%
Shaun Bradley 7’6” - 72%

Some near Zach’s 67% average.

Ralph Sampson 7’4” - 66%
Mark Eaton 7’4” - 65%
Gheorghe Muresan 7’7” - 64%
Randy Breuer 7’3” - 63%

And some that were pretty weak FT shooters.

Chuck Nevitt 7’5” - 57%
Shaquille and Wilt were only about 7’1”, both shot poorly in the low 50’s.
 
Painter would take another Haas or Edey in a heartbeat. Painter can work the offense around a low post threat or someone more mobile. We’ve certainly had some good teams with big guys. I like the team with Edey, hopefully for 2 years. I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t make the tournament both years.
Purdue may continue to make the tournament by depending on low post play. But they'll continue to get knocked out by much better guard play. I'm hoping Painter realizes that it's smaller ball that dominates the tournament...
 
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Purdue may continue to make the tournament by depending on low post play. But they'll continue to get knocked out by much better guard play. I'm hoping Painter realizes that it's smaller ball that dominates the tournament...
I would agree. Big men dominate regular season games and weaker opponents! You need elite guards and FT shooting to beat top 10 teams and win in the tournament - especially back to back games on neutral courts!

I worry that Edey will try to change his game and start taking misguided 3 point shots in an effort to impress nba scouts
 
His stats are pretty crazy. They could be even better though. He goes up for a rebound alot with just one hand and loses it a lot. If he uses 2 hands more he would get more rebounds.
 
His stats are pretty crazy. They could be even better though. He goes up for a rebound alot with just one hand and loses it a lot. If he uses 2 hands more he would get more rebounds.
That reminds me of the Michigan State game we lost when Marble held down one of Edey's arms in a textbook hook and hold, but Edey got called for the foul in the last minute. That probably happens a lot more than we realize.
 
That reminds me of the Michigan State game we lost when Marble held down one of Edey's arms in a textbook hook and hold, but Edey got called for the foul in the last minute. That probably happens a lot more than we realize.
It happens alot. Lots of times he isn't being held and only goes up with one arm though.
 
Zach’s 64% FT for one year or even 67% FT for two years is pretty much ho-hum. There have been many NBA players 7’3” or taller that had career average percent higher than Kareem and much higher than Zach.

Yao Ming 7’6” - 83%
Kristaps Porzingis 7’3” - 82%
Arvydas Sabonis 7’3” - 79%
Zydrunas Ilgauskas 7’3” - 78%
Rick Smits 7’4” - 77%
Boban Marjanuvic 7’4” - 77%
Shaun Bradley 7’6” - 72%

Some near Zach’s 67% average.

Ralph Sampson 7’4” - 66%
Mark Eaton 7’4” - 65%
Gheorghe Muresan 7’7” - 64%
Randy Breuer 7’3” - 63%

And some that were pretty weak FT shooters.

Chuck Nevitt 7’5” - 57%
Shaquille and Wilt were only about 7’1”, both shot poorly in the low 50’s.
I wanted his goal to be over 70, which he’s very capable of. I would even say he’s capable of 75% from the FT line at some point.
 
I would agree. Big men dominate regular season games and weaker opponents! You need elite guards and FT shooting to beat top 10 teams and win in the tournament - especially back to back games on neutral courts!

I worry that Edey will try to change his game and start taking misguided 3 point shots in an effort to impress nba scouts
I don’t disagree. I think you need balance from your bigs and your guards. I think our combo next year of Edey and Furst will allow us to play differently. I like the idea of being able to exploit some matchups in very different ways.

I don’t think our guard play will be good enough to get us to the promised land next year. Loyer and Smith will be nice pieces to add to DGL and Colvin. Those 4 guys will be really good together some day IMO. Hopefully Furst and TKR will still be around to make it happen.
 
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That reminds me of the Michigan State game we lost when Marble held down one of Edey's arms in a textbook hook and hold, but Edey got called for the foul in the last minute. That probably happens a lot more than we realize.

Dang, I had forgotten about that until the reminder. Thanks.....haha

Our buddy, DJ, calls it - starting @ about 23:05 of the highlight video....

 
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