Sorry this would have been earlier but I’ve been trying to offload my container of “Dodgers-Champs 2022” merchandise.
Next up for the 2022 season are the Wisconsin Badgers in Camp Randall Stadium. Luckily, it’s not yet Halloween as the sight of the stadium should be enough to scare recent Boiler fans.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Wisconsin Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Unlike prior lines, this year’s version of the Wisconsin O-line won’t be the largest group that Purdue will face in 2022 coming in at 314.4 lbs., in fact, they aren’t even the runner-up. While still above average in the B10, they come in right in the middle of the league as the 7th largest. This will be the second smallest Wisconsin line in the past 10 years, only eclipsed by last year’s 312lb line. Three multi-year starters and one part-time starter return but their experience is very un-Wisconsin-like average of 2.4 years. Their experience ties them (Iowa, Purdue) for youngest in the B10. Collectively, again a very unusual number for Wisconsin, they have only 75 career starts.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Sullivan, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 285.0 lbs, up about 2.5lbs from last year’s. They will be outweighed by the Wisconsin line by about 29.4 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.5 years, up a full year from last year’s line. As a unit they have 81 collective starts with all four starter having double digit starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Fakasiieiki, Douglas, Graham) come in at 228.3 lbs, and are at 4.0 years of experience. With Graham’s return, the number of starts picks back up dramatically and they now have a collective 44 starts between them. Should Walberg start in place of Fakasiieki, the size rises a bit with one fewer start and experience drops a tad. If Brothers replaces Fakasiieiki, it would have the same effect.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Moussa, Holstege, Hartwig, Mbow, Miller) will average 307.0 lbs per man, up by 1.0 lbs from last year’s 306.0 lbs. With Moussa replacing Johnson (who replaced Craig) the average experience drops down to 2.4 years. Collectively, they still have a good number of starts for Purdue with 79. (While the experience is down, this group of linemen may be the most talented group.)
- Wisconsin plays a 3-4 scheme so an adjustment is made by counting their largest LB as part of the D-Line. At 284.75 lbs., they will be about 20lbs heavier than Nebraska’s, but about 12lbs lighter than Maryland’s. With a 3.5 year average of experience, they will above average for the league but about the middle of the pack for teams that Purdue will face this season. Two players are multi-year returning starters with one other having about a year, plus or minus, of starting experience. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 22.25 lbs per man. As mentioned, they’re largely returning starters so they’ll have a good 73 starts between them.
- The Wisconsin LBs will be nearly 20lbs (17 actually) heavier than Nebraska’s and well above average for the B10 but like their D-line is smaller than Maryland’s coming in at an average of 232.3 lbs.. Iowa’s and Illinois’ group will also be larger. Unlike the D-Line, they will be well below average in terms of experience with 2.67 years at the position and have just 29 starts between them. (Again, note that Herbig, Wisconsin’s most experienced LB is counted with the D-Line.
Vegas opened up at Purdue +2. It’s now +2.5 with O/U at 52 (Note: I use VegasInsider for my line info. Other sites may vary)
MasseyRatings predicts a 30-27 Wisconsin win
Sagarin predicts a 1.09 point Purdue win using his “Golden Mean” rating (which is what I use). Note, it’s a 3.23 point spread for Wisconsin using his “Recent” formula.
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 1.95 point Purdue win.
Compughter Ratings predicts a 34-33 Wisconsin win with a 67 point O/U.
CollegeFootballNews predicts a 27-23 Purdue win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue…………………… Wisconsin
QB O’Connell NR………. Mertz 4*
RB Mockobee NR........... Allen 4* (ATH)
WR/FB Rice 4*..........…… Acker 3*
WR Jones 2*….................. Dike 3*
WR Sheffield 3*................ S. Bell 3*
TE Durham 3*.................... Eschenbach NR
LT Moussa 3*..................... Nelson 4*
LG Holstege 2*................ Beach 3*
C Hartwig 4*.................... Tippman 3*
RG Mbow 3*.................... Bortolini 3*
RT Miller 3*…….............. Mahlman 4*
DE Sullivan 3*................... R. Johnson 4*
DT Johnson 3*……………Benton 3*
DT/DE Dean 3*….............. Mullens 3*
DE/LB Jenkins 3*............. Herbig 4*
LB Brothers 3*....……...... Njongmeta 3*
LB Douglas 3* …………. Turner 3*
LB/ROV Graham 3*….…. Goetz 3*
CB Trice 3*.........……...... S. Shaw 3* (UCLA)
CB Taylor 3*.................... Alex Smith 3* (ATH)
FS Allen 3*......…….…..... Latu 3* (Utah)
SS Kane 3*......................... Torchio 2* (Not the best name for a DB, IMO)
(NOTE: The above is going off of Wisconsin’s 2-deep. As reported elsewhere, a number of those players are “hoping to return” or are “game time decisions” so backups (and backup’s backups) may appear on your viewing screen come kickoff)
It’s the second of two back to back games featuring “interim” Head Coaches as Wisconsin parted ways with their 8 year head coach, Paul Chryst, following their loss to Illinois earlier this year and have replaced him with former walk-on DB, Jim Leonhard (Leonhard also was the DC).
While he’s officially the “interim” head coach, my suspicions are that the “interim” tag will be removed at the end of the season after Wisconsin does a (cough) “national search”.
This has been a very “un-Wisconsin-like” season. An early season out of conference home loss to an average at best Washington State team did not bode well for Chryst and the Badgers. Following that up with a another home loss, this time to former HC Bielema and Illinois, seemingly sealed the deal with Chryst prompting the change at the top.
Following their double overtime loss to Michigan State this past weekend, the combined record of the two head coaches is now 3-4. You would have to go back to the 2008 season (Bielema’s 3rd season), when Wisconsin lost four in a row to find a team that sat with four losses after their first seven games.
Wisconsin cited the offense as one of the reasons for the change, although Chryst had brought in a new OC (Bobby Engram) this season to update the offense, at it had worked to some extent. What I find a bit odd is that while the offense did have some struggles, the defense in the two games leading up to the dismissal had given up 86 points. Yet, the new HC was the old DC. Go figure.
For the season, Wisconsin’s Total Offense comes in below average ranked at #77th nationally at just under 400 yards per game (391.1). Broken down, their Rushing Offense is ranked 52nd (170.6ypg) and their Pass Efficiency is ranked a surprising high (for Wisconsin) 21st nationally.
Scoring Offense fares a little better than their Total Offense with a ranking of 58th while Red Zone Offense is better still at 37th.
They have also been good at converting 3rd downs with a ranking of 28th and have a positive Turnover Margin of +0.43/game.
So on the surface their offense, while not at the very top, still seems to pack a punch. So, how to explain a 3-4 start?
I’d first look at competition:
According to Sagarin, the Wisconsin strength of schedule is a respectable #49 (BTW, Purdue’s is #34), but that takes in the entire year's schedule.
A good part of that could be that Wisconsin has played Ohio State, Sagarin’s #1 team, which could help skew the numbers. Looking at the teams Wisconsin has played so far (and their Sagarin ratings) might tell a different story (Note: Sagarin groups 1A and 1AA together in the rankings for a total of 260 teams).
Illinois State – 147
Washington State - 44
New Mexico State - 172
Ohio State - 1
Illinois - 24
Northwestern - 107
Michigan State – 49
So, Wisconsin’s “Best Win” came against #107 Northwestern and their “Worst Loss” came against #49 Michigan State.
The next aspect I’d look to is their offensive line. What used to be the “Biggest Offensive Line in Captivity” is still big, but a number of others are bigger. This year’s version is also one of the youngest lines that Purdue will face in some time. More typical has been a line of 5th year Seniors, perhaps short on starting experience, but long on size and development. Injuries have played as part as well as the Badgers have started 5 different lineups in their 7 games and this week, and their RT (Mahlman) is a game time decision.
Regardless of the cause, the results have not been what we’ve come to expect out of Madison.
(Insert “That’s a Shame” meme here)
It wouldn’t be a Wisconsin offense without a star running back, and this year is no exception as the Badgers rely on a former LB recruit in Braelon Allen to tote the rock most of the time. Allen is averaging nearly 5.7 yards per carry with 8 TDs. Their backup, Mellusi, is not expected to play so Isaac Guerrendo (4.08/ypc on 23 carries) will spell Allen. Coach Leonhard indicated in his press conference that they will try and work the other backs in more to lighten the load on Allen. Having said that, Allen will occasionally take the snap in a Wildcat formation. He even threw for a TD out of that formation against Northwestern.
Graham Mertz was the highest rated QB to sign with Wisconsin out of high school. The former 4* player took over following an injury to Jack Coan in 2019 and has been the starter ever since. He wowed everyone in the opening game of 2020 against Illinois but has largely had disappointing performances thereafter.
As mentioned above, Wisconsin’s Pass Efficiency Ranking is #21. Breaking it down a bit is perhaps more telling:
Against teams ranked 100 and above, Mertz’s QB Rating is a superb 230.49.
Against teams ranked below 100, Mertz’s QB Rating is 116.42
His stats against those higher ranked teams:
- 60 of 107 (56%) for 652 yards (6.09/attempt), 6 TDs against 5 INTs.
His stats against those lower ranked teams:
- 46 of 60 (77%) for 769 yards (12.82/attempt), 9 TDs against 1 INTs.
When Mertz does complete a pass, his main target has been WR Chimere Dike (29 for 487 yards and 5TDs). Dike has speed (Personal best was a 10.85 100m in HS), he is slower than what Purdue just saw in Nebraska’s Palmer (10.39 100m also set in HS). Note: About 1/3 of his season production (10 receptions and 135 yards) came in one game (Northwestern).
I refrain from citing too many other player’s stats as, like with Mertz’s statistics, a lot of Wisconsin’s offensive numbers were racked up against seriously outmatched opponents and, when faced with a defense with a pulse, underperformed.
While I can’t claim to have watched all of Mertz’s games at Wisconsin, in the games I have seen, Mertz generally does not throw the ball downfield and looks for backs out of the backfield, his tight end or flair passes to the wideouts to get them into space. When he has completed downfield passes, they tend to be to wide open receivers. He has the arm to get the ball deep, but I wonder if he has the confidence to get it there accurately, hence the shorter, easier "check down" throws.
Defensively, the Badgers using the “eye test” aren’t up to their normal standards although the rankings are a bit misleading. Total Defense is ranked 25th nationally. Rush Defense is about the same at 27th and Pass Efficiency Defense is, on paper, their weak spot at 52nd.
Scoring Defense drops a bit from their Total Defense and comes in at 33rd while their Red Zone Defense is an excellent 16th nationally.
Mirroring the above rankings, the Wisconsin defense has allowed opponents to pick up 1st downs at a 32.6% clip (and 4th downs at 41.7%) good for a 29th ranking (37th for 4th Downs).
The Badgers have been very good at picking off passes, ranked 3rd Nationally with 11 interceptions. That number is surprising given their lower Pass Efficiency Defensive ranking.
Further to that point, they aren’t giving up a ton of yards through the air (215.9/game) however opposing QBs are completing 60% of their passes. They have also given up 10 TDs through the air (again, offset by the 11 interceptions). So, all in all, no glaring issues but put together, it’s just a bit above average.
One spot that they don’t rank high in this year is in Team Sacks, where they are 93rd nationally, averaging 1.71/game.
They have been on the field more this season. Opponents have run 436 plays from scrimmage on the Badgers this season. At the same time last year, opponents had only run 397, or about 10% less. The sometimes ineffective offense has likely put the Badger defense on the field more than they would have liked and the end result is that they may be getting a bit worn down.
Like the offense, I think the high rankings could be more of a product of their domination over the lesser teams they’ve played.
Just looking at the Rush Defense broken down in the same way we looked at Mertz’s stats:
- Against teams ranked 100 and above, Rush Defense gave up 85 yards/game (2.85/ypc).
- Against teams ranked below 100, Rush Defense gave up 137 yards/game (3.82/ypc)
Their numbers should shake out by the end of the season as they’re set to play (per Sagarin):
#35 Purdue
#38 Maryland
#34 Iowa
#69 Nebraska
#28 Minnesota
Using the same metrics for Purdue’s schedule, the Boilers are set to face:
#33 Wisconsin
#34 Iowa
#24 Illinois
#107 Northwestern
#78 Indiana
Of games played, they’ve faced:
#20 Penn State
#175 Indiana State
#37 Syracuse
#92 Florida Atlantic
#28 Minnesota
#38 Maryland
#69 Nebraska
Thus, nearly all of Purdue’s stats have been garnered from teams below that #100 ranking. May mean something. May mean nothing. Time will tell.
After last week’s performance, Purdue’s offense is ranked 36th nationally,
Rushing Offense moved up to 90th this week while Pass Efficiency is at 63rd. Scoring Offense ranks 40th and Red Zone offense is still a very good 15th Nationally. It’s disappointing that scoring isn’t higher but the fact remains that when they do get close, they continue to convert at a high rate.
Back to the Red Zone; Purdue has gotten the ball into the Red Zone 32 times this season, scoring on 30 with the only misfires coming against FAU when they failed to convert on 4th down and a missed FG last weekend, good for a 93.8% scoring ratio. Their ratio of TDs however has dropped a bit, putting the ball across the end zone on 24 of those 32 times (75.0%).
To compare. Last season, Purdue only scored on 86% of their Red Zone trips and only scored TDs on 27 of their 49 scores (55%). To put a finer point on it, in 2021 Purdue averaged 4.4 points for every trip into the Red Zone. This season, Purdue is averaging 5.78 points per trip. A solid improvement but they need to score more TDs when given the opportunity. Perhaps the emergence of a running game will help.
One area that the O-Line has been pretty good at so far this season is in not allowing Sacks. While down a bit from earlier in the season, Purdue still ranks 45th nationally in Sacks Allowed, giving up about 1.5 per game. Considering O’Connell is more likely to stay in the pocket than scramble, that’s an exceptionally good number. Conversely, Wisconsin is ranked 73rd in that category.
Tackles for Loss also has seen a similar drop but remains very high where Purdue is ranked 11th nationally and where Wisconsin is ranked 53rd.
Purdue’s defense took a hit following last week’s “performance” and is now ranked 40th this week in Total Defense. Purdue’s run defense has continued to perform well holding opposing running backs to no more than 52 yards in a game which has resulted in their #17 ranking in Rush Defense.
Purdue dropped back down to 77th in Pass Defense Efficiency. The two interceptions helped; the two TDs allowed (plus the additional yardage) didn’t.
Scoring Defense has also dropped significantly going back down to 51st however Red Zone Defense is still a good 28th.
Needless to say, and not to beat a dead horse, but Purdue needs to tighten things up on the defensive backfield. Luckily, the cracks were shown without giving up a loss.
In close games (which this should be), Penalties and Turnovers are critical.
Purdue has continued to clean up their Penalties Per Game (54th) and Penalty Yards Per Game (87th) as the season has progressed committing just 2 for 14 yards last Saturday. Obviously in front of a vocal crowd this weekend, avoiding penalties will be critical.
Wisconsin has had their issues with the yellow hankies as well. They are ranked 91st in Penalties Per Game and 106th in Penalty Yards Per Game averaging 9.6 yards per penalty averaging 10.29 yards per penalty.
Purdue won last week’s turnover battle 2 to 1 so found itself at 0.00 in Turnover Margin (Senator Blutarsky would be proud). With more of a ground game emphasis, Wisconsin is slightly better at a 0.43 ratio.
Weather looks to be unseasonably warm on Saturday with temperatures at kickoff in the low 70’s. sunny and a light wind of 10mph and 7% change of precipitation. (Don’t they know it’s late October? That’s scheduled to be warmer than SoCal)
Even with Wisconsin’s poor start this season, expect a full house of some of the worst fans in the B10.
Odd stat of this (and every) week. Purdue is now 4-0 when their first offensive play is a run. They have a 1-2 record when their first play is a pass. Hope Brohm is paying attention and continues the streak. A couple more times and it will be a solid trend.
Purdue’s defense has forced five punts, a turnover (ISU) and allowed a touchdown (MD) on their opponent’s first drive of the game. Purdue has scored a touchdown on their first possession in three games, turned it over on downs in one, punting in two games and last weekend for the first time, turned it over on their opening drive.
Purdue has also scored TDs on three of their drives opening the 2nd half of games. Conversely, they’ve allowed two of the last three teams to score TDs on their opening drive of the 2nd half. Both games were Purdue wins, however.
Purdue is now 10-3 in their last ten games stretching back to last season (and the game against Wisconsin). The breakdown is 5-1 at home, 4-2 on the road and 1-0 at neutral sites.
No sense discussing the “streak”. As far as most of the players go, it’s simply the next game on the schedule. There are around 8 starters who experienced the 2019 game in Madison, hopefully they’ll make it a point to bring a win back to West Lafayette and perhaps start another streak and run off a dozen or so wins in a row as payback.
A Purdue win on Saturday would hang a third home loss on the Badgers, something that hasn't been done since....you guessed it, 2003 and the last time Purdue won in Madison.
With the Illini off and a bye week following, Purdue has an opportunity to be either all alone or tied for 1st place in the West at the start of November. Raise your hand if you predicted that.
Let’s play football!
EDIT: Typo on Massey prediction.
EDIT: Addition of CollegeFootballNews prediction
Next up for the 2022 season are the Wisconsin Badgers in Camp Randall Stadium. Luckily, it’s not yet Halloween as the sight of the stadium should be enough to scare recent Boiler fans.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Wisconsin Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Unlike prior lines, this year’s version of the Wisconsin O-line won’t be the largest group that Purdue will face in 2022 coming in at 314.4 lbs., in fact, they aren’t even the runner-up. While still above average in the B10, they come in right in the middle of the league as the 7th largest. This will be the second smallest Wisconsin line in the past 10 years, only eclipsed by last year’s 312lb line. Three multi-year starters and one part-time starter return but their experience is very un-Wisconsin-like average of 2.4 years. Their experience ties them (Iowa, Purdue) for youngest in the B10. Collectively, again a very unusual number for Wisconsin, they have only 75 career starts.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Sullivan, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 285.0 lbs, up about 2.5lbs from last year’s. They will be outweighed by the Wisconsin line by about 29.4 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.5 years, up a full year from last year’s line. As a unit they have 81 collective starts with all four starter having double digit starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Fakasiieiki, Douglas, Graham) come in at 228.3 lbs, and are at 4.0 years of experience. With Graham’s return, the number of starts picks back up dramatically and they now have a collective 44 starts between them. Should Walberg start in place of Fakasiieki, the size rises a bit with one fewer start and experience drops a tad. If Brothers replaces Fakasiieiki, it would have the same effect.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Moussa, Holstege, Hartwig, Mbow, Miller) will average 307.0 lbs per man, up by 1.0 lbs from last year’s 306.0 lbs. With Moussa replacing Johnson (who replaced Craig) the average experience drops down to 2.4 years. Collectively, they still have a good number of starts for Purdue with 79. (While the experience is down, this group of linemen may be the most talented group.)
- Wisconsin plays a 3-4 scheme so an adjustment is made by counting their largest LB as part of the D-Line. At 284.75 lbs., they will be about 20lbs heavier than Nebraska’s, but about 12lbs lighter than Maryland’s. With a 3.5 year average of experience, they will above average for the league but about the middle of the pack for teams that Purdue will face this season. Two players are multi-year returning starters with one other having about a year, plus or minus, of starting experience. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 22.25 lbs per man. As mentioned, they’re largely returning starters so they’ll have a good 73 starts between them.
- The Wisconsin LBs will be nearly 20lbs (17 actually) heavier than Nebraska’s and well above average for the B10 but like their D-line is smaller than Maryland’s coming in at an average of 232.3 lbs.. Iowa’s and Illinois’ group will also be larger. Unlike the D-Line, they will be well below average in terms of experience with 2.67 years at the position and have just 29 starts between them. (Again, note that Herbig, Wisconsin’s most experienced LB is counted with the D-Line.
Vegas opened up at Purdue +2. It’s now +2.5 with O/U at 52 (Note: I use VegasInsider for my line info. Other sites may vary)
MasseyRatings predicts a 30-27 Wisconsin win
Sagarin predicts a 1.09 point Purdue win using his “Golden Mean” rating (which is what I use). Note, it’s a 3.23 point spread for Wisconsin using his “Recent” formula.
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 1.95 point Purdue win.
Compughter Ratings predicts a 34-33 Wisconsin win with a 67 point O/U.
CollegeFootballNews predicts a 27-23 Purdue win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue…………………… Wisconsin
QB O’Connell NR………. Mertz 4*
RB Mockobee NR........... Allen 4* (ATH)
WR/FB Rice 4*..........…… Acker 3*
WR Jones 2*….................. Dike 3*
WR Sheffield 3*................ S. Bell 3*
TE Durham 3*.................... Eschenbach NR
LT Moussa 3*..................... Nelson 4*
LG Holstege 2*................ Beach 3*
C Hartwig 4*.................... Tippman 3*
RG Mbow 3*.................... Bortolini 3*
RT Miller 3*…….............. Mahlman 4*
DE Sullivan 3*................... R. Johnson 4*
DT Johnson 3*……………Benton 3*
DT/DE Dean 3*….............. Mullens 3*
DE/LB Jenkins 3*............. Herbig 4*
LB Brothers 3*....……...... Njongmeta 3*
LB Douglas 3* …………. Turner 3*
LB/ROV Graham 3*….…. Goetz 3*
CB Trice 3*.........……...... S. Shaw 3* (UCLA)
CB Taylor 3*.................... Alex Smith 3* (ATH)
FS Allen 3*......…….…..... Latu 3* (Utah)
SS Kane 3*......................... Torchio 2* (Not the best name for a DB, IMO)
(NOTE: The above is going off of Wisconsin’s 2-deep. As reported elsewhere, a number of those players are “hoping to return” or are “game time decisions” so backups (and backup’s backups) may appear on your viewing screen come kickoff)
It’s the second of two back to back games featuring “interim” Head Coaches as Wisconsin parted ways with their 8 year head coach, Paul Chryst, following their loss to Illinois earlier this year and have replaced him with former walk-on DB, Jim Leonhard (Leonhard also was the DC).
While he’s officially the “interim” head coach, my suspicions are that the “interim” tag will be removed at the end of the season after Wisconsin does a (cough) “national search”.
This has been a very “un-Wisconsin-like” season. An early season out of conference home loss to an average at best Washington State team did not bode well for Chryst and the Badgers. Following that up with a another home loss, this time to former HC Bielema and Illinois, seemingly sealed the deal with Chryst prompting the change at the top.
Following their double overtime loss to Michigan State this past weekend, the combined record of the two head coaches is now 3-4. You would have to go back to the 2008 season (Bielema’s 3rd season), when Wisconsin lost four in a row to find a team that sat with four losses after their first seven games.
Wisconsin cited the offense as one of the reasons for the change, although Chryst had brought in a new OC (Bobby Engram) this season to update the offense, at it had worked to some extent. What I find a bit odd is that while the offense did have some struggles, the defense in the two games leading up to the dismissal had given up 86 points. Yet, the new HC was the old DC. Go figure.
For the season, Wisconsin’s Total Offense comes in below average ranked at #77th nationally at just under 400 yards per game (391.1). Broken down, their Rushing Offense is ranked 52nd (170.6ypg) and their Pass Efficiency is ranked a surprising high (for Wisconsin) 21st nationally.
Scoring Offense fares a little better than their Total Offense with a ranking of 58th while Red Zone Offense is better still at 37th.
They have also been good at converting 3rd downs with a ranking of 28th and have a positive Turnover Margin of +0.43/game.
So on the surface their offense, while not at the very top, still seems to pack a punch. So, how to explain a 3-4 start?
I’d first look at competition:
According to Sagarin, the Wisconsin strength of schedule is a respectable #49 (BTW, Purdue’s is #34), but that takes in the entire year's schedule.
A good part of that could be that Wisconsin has played Ohio State, Sagarin’s #1 team, which could help skew the numbers. Looking at the teams Wisconsin has played so far (and their Sagarin ratings) might tell a different story (Note: Sagarin groups 1A and 1AA together in the rankings for a total of 260 teams).
Illinois State – 147
Washington State - 44
New Mexico State - 172
Ohio State - 1
Illinois - 24
Northwestern - 107
Michigan State – 49
So, Wisconsin’s “Best Win” came against #107 Northwestern and their “Worst Loss” came against #49 Michigan State.
The next aspect I’d look to is their offensive line. What used to be the “Biggest Offensive Line in Captivity” is still big, but a number of others are bigger. This year’s version is also one of the youngest lines that Purdue will face in some time. More typical has been a line of 5th year Seniors, perhaps short on starting experience, but long on size and development. Injuries have played as part as well as the Badgers have started 5 different lineups in their 7 games and this week, and their RT (Mahlman) is a game time decision.
Regardless of the cause, the results have not been what we’ve come to expect out of Madison.
(Insert “That’s a Shame” meme here)
It wouldn’t be a Wisconsin offense without a star running back, and this year is no exception as the Badgers rely on a former LB recruit in Braelon Allen to tote the rock most of the time. Allen is averaging nearly 5.7 yards per carry with 8 TDs. Their backup, Mellusi, is not expected to play so Isaac Guerrendo (4.08/ypc on 23 carries) will spell Allen. Coach Leonhard indicated in his press conference that they will try and work the other backs in more to lighten the load on Allen. Having said that, Allen will occasionally take the snap in a Wildcat formation. He even threw for a TD out of that formation against Northwestern.
Graham Mertz was the highest rated QB to sign with Wisconsin out of high school. The former 4* player took over following an injury to Jack Coan in 2019 and has been the starter ever since. He wowed everyone in the opening game of 2020 against Illinois but has largely had disappointing performances thereafter.
As mentioned above, Wisconsin’s Pass Efficiency Ranking is #21. Breaking it down a bit is perhaps more telling:
Against teams ranked 100 and above, Mertz’s QB Rating is a superb 230.49.
Against teams ranked below 100, Mertz’s QB Rating is 116.42
His stats against those higher ranked teams:
- 60 of 107 (56%) for 652 yards (6.09/attempt), 6 TDs against 5 INTs.
His stats against those lower ranked teams:
- 46 of 60 (77%) for 769 yards (12.82/attempt), 9 TDs against 1 INTs.
When Mertz does complete a pass, his main target has been WR Chimere Dike (29 for 487 yards and 5TDs). Dike has speed (Personal best was a 10.85 100m in HS), he is slower than what Purdue just saw in Nebraska’s Palmer (10.39 100m also set in HS). Note: About 1/3 of his season production (10 receptions and 135 yards) came in one game (Northwestern).
I refrain from citing too many other player’s stats as, like with Mertz’s statistics, a lot of Wisconsin’s offensive numbers were racked up against seriously outmatched opponents and, when faced with a defense with a pulse, underperformed.
While I can’t claim to have watched all of Mertz’s games at Wisconsin, in the games I have seen, Mertz generally does not throw the ball downfield and looks for backs out of the backfield, his tight end or flair passes to the wideouts to get them into space. When he has completed downfield passes, they tend to be to wide open receivers. He has the arm to get the ball deep, but I wonder if he has the confidence to get it there accurately, hence the shorter, easier "check down" throws.
Defensively, the Badgers using the “eye test” aren’t up to their normal standards although the rankings are a bit misleading. Total Defense is ranked 25th nationally. Rush Defense is about the same at 27th and Pass Efficiency Defense is, on paper, their weak spot at 52nd.
Scoring Defense drops a bit from their Total Defense and comes in at 33rd while their Red Zone Defense is an excellent 16th nationally.
Mirroring the above rankings, the Wisconsin defense has allowed opponents to pick up 1st downs at a 32.6% clip (and 4th downs at 41.7%) good for a 29th ranking (37th for 4th Downs).
The Badgers have been very good at picking off passes, ranked 3rd Nationally with 11 interceptions. That number is surprising given their lower Pass Efficiency Defensive ranking.
Further to that point, they aren’t giving up a ton of yards through the air (215.9/game) however opposing QBs are completing 60% of their passes. They have also given up 10 TDs through the air (again, offset by the 11 interceptions). So, all in all, no glaring issues but put together, it’s just a bit above average.
One spot that they don’t rank high in this year is in Team Sacks, where they are 93rd nationally, averaging 1.71/game.
They have been on the field more this season. Opponents have run 436 plays from scrimmage on the Badgers this season. At the same time last year, opponents had only run 397, or about 10% less. The sometimes ineffective offense has likely put the Badger defense on the field more than they would have liked and the end result is that they may be getting a bit worn down.
Like the offense, I think the high rankings could be more of a product of their domination over the lesser teams they’ve played.
Just looking at the Rush Defense broken down in the same way we looked at Mertz’s stats:
- Against teams ranked 100 and above, Rush Defense gave up 85 yards/game (2.85/ypc).
- Against teams ranked below 100, Rush Defense gave up 137 yards/game (3.82/ypc)
Their numbers should shake out by the end of the season as they’re set to play (per Sagarin):
#35 Purdue
#38 Maryland
#34 Iowa
#69 Nebraska
#28 Minnesota
Using the same metrics for Purdue’s schedule, the Boilers are set to face:
#33 Wisconsin
#34 Iowa
#24 Illinois
#107 Northwestern
#78 Indiana
Of games played, they’ve faced:
#20 Penn State
#175 Indiana State
#37 Syracuse
#92 Florida Atlantic
#28 Minnesota
#38 Maryland
#69 Nebraska
Thus, nearly all of Purdue’s stats have been garnered from teams below that #100 ranking. May mean something. May mean nothing. Time will tell.
After last week’s performance, Purdue’s offense is ranked 36th nationally,
Rushing Offense moved up to 90th this week while Pass Efficiency is at 63rd. Scoring Offense ranks 40th and Red Zone offense is still a very good 15th Nationally. It’s disappointing that scoring isn’t higher but the fact remains that when they do get close, they continue to convert at a high rate.
Back to the Red Zone; Purdue has gotten the ball into the Red Zone 32 times this season, scoring on 30 with the only misfires coming against FAU when they failed to convert on 4th down and a missed FG last weekend, good for a 93.8% scoring ratio. Their ratio of TDs however has dropped a bit, putting the ball across the end zone on 24 of those 32 times (75.0%).
To compare. Last season, Purdue only scored on 86% of their Red Zone trips and only scored TDs on 27 of their 49 scores (55%). To put a finer point on it, in 2021 Purdue averaged 4.4 points for every trip into the Red Zone. This season, Purdue is averaging 5.78 points per trip. A solid improvement but they need to score more TDs when given the opportunity. Perhaps the emergence of a running game will help.
One area that the O-Line has been pretty good at so far this season is in not allowing Sacks. While down a bit from earlier in the season, Purdue still ranks 45th nationally in Sacks Allowed, giving up about 1.5 per game. Considering O’Connell is more likely to stay in the pocket than scramble, that’s an exceptionally good number. Conversely, Wisconsin is ranked 73rd in that category.
Tackles for Loss also has seen a similar drop but remains very high where Purdue is ranked 11th nationally and where Wisconsin is ranked 53rd.
Purdue’s defense took a hit following last week’s “performance” and is now ranked 40th this week in Total Defense. Purdue’s run defense has continued to perform well holding opposing running backs to no more than 52 yards in a game which has resulted in their #17 ranking in Rush Defense.
Purdue dropped back down to 77th in Pass Defense Efficiency. The two interceptions helped; the two TDs allowed (plus the additional yardage) didn’t.
Scoring Defense has also dropped significantly going back down to 51st however Red Zone Defense is still a good 28th.
Needless to say, and not to beat a dead horse, but Purdue needs to tighten things up on the defensive backfield. Luckily, the cracks were shown without giving up a loss.
In close games (which this should be), Penalties and Turnovers are critical.
Purdue has continued to clean up their Penalties Per Game (54th) and Penalty Yards Per Game (87th) as the season has progressed committing just 2 for 14 yards last Saturday. Obviously in front of a vocal crowd this weekend, avoiding penalties will be critical.
Wisconsin has had their issues with the yellow hankies as well. They are ranked 91st in Penalties Per Game and 106th in Penalty Yards Per Game averaging 9.6 yards per penalty averaging 10.29 yards per penalty.
Purdue won last week’s turnover battle 2 to 1 so found itself at 0.00 in Turnover Margin (Senator Blutarsky would be proud). With more of a ground game emphasis, Wisconsin is slightly better at a 0.43 ratio.
Weather looks to be unseasonably warm on Saturday with temperatures at kickoff in the low 70’s. sunny and a light wind of 10mph and 7% change of precipitation. (Don’t they know it’s late October? That’s scheduled to be warmer than SoCal)
Even with Wisconsin’s poor start this season, expect a full house of some of the worst fans in the B10.
Odd stat of this (and every) week. Purdue is now 4-0 when their first offensive play is a run. They have a 1-2 record when their first play is a pass. Hope Brohm is paying attention and continues the streak. A couple more times and it will be a solid trend.
Purdue’s defense has forced five punts, a turnover (ISU) and allowed a touchdown (MD) on their opponent’s first drive of the game. Purdue has scored a touchdown on their first possession in three games, turned it over on downs in one, punting in two games and last weekend for the first time, turned it over on their opening drive.
Purdue has also scored TDs on three of their drives opening the 2nd half of games. Conversely, they’ve allowed two of the last three teams to score TDs on their opening drive of the 2nd half. Both games were Purdue wins, however.
Purdue is now 10-3 in their last ten games stretching back to last season (and the game against Wisconsin). The breakdown is 5-1 at home, 4-2 on the road and 1-0 at neutral sites.
No sense discussing the “streak”. As far as most of the players go, it’s simply the next game on the schedule. There are around 8 starters who experienced the 2019 game in Madison, hopefully they’ll make it a point to bring a win back to West Lafayette and perhaps start another streak and run off a dozen or so wins in a row as payback.
A Purdue win on Saturday would hang a third home loss on the Badgers, something that hasn't been done since....you guessed it, 2003 and the last time Purdue won in Madison.
With the Illini off and a bye week following, Purdue has an opportunity to be either all alone or tied for 1st place in the West at the start of November. Raise your hand if you predicted that.
Let’s play football!
EDIT: Typo on Massey prediction.
EDIT: Addition of CollegeFootballNews prediction
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