Fresh off a huge road win, the now ranked Boilermakers come home to a sold out Ross-Ade crowd and face the Wisconsin Badgers.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Wisconsin Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: A number of teams on this season’s schedule have already factored in the player’s extra year of eligibility. Where possible, I’ve not done so in order to try and get a truer picture of each team’s experience. Thus, my numbers may not always jibe with other sites). Purdue has not released a 2-deep yet (Purdue’s should come out on Thursday) so I have made some educated guesses as to starters.
- Flipping back and forth again between big and small O-Lines, Wisconsin is back on the big side averaging 312.2 lbs. Not as experienced as the Minnesota or Illinois lines, but better than Iowa, they come in with an average of 3.0 years of experience. Collectively, they will have 67 starts among them. Again, nowhere near Minnesota or Illinois, they will be about even with ND’s in that regard. There are two new starters this year while the most experienced player (Bruss at RT with 29 starts) is still questionable having missed their games with Illinois and Army. If Bruss can’t go, his backup, Bortolini, is a redshirt freshman with 2 starts this season.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Wisconsin line by about 29.7 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 49 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Wisconsin and PSU. They have a collective 43 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Wisconsin. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 99. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Wisconsin features a 3-4 scheme and as such, for comparison, we count their larger OLB as a DE. Even counting a LB as a DE, at 287.5 lbs, they are scheduled to be well above the average size of D-lines Purdue will face this season, and 3rd largest (Maryland, Michigan) in the B10. They have very good experience as they come in with a 3.5 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by just 18.5 lbs per man. With three multi-year starters, they’ll have a very good 68 starts between them. This is not Iowa’s line.
- Wisconsin usually has a good set of LBs and this year is no exception and all three are multi-year starters. Like the other two position groups, they are above average sized at 241.3 lbs., which puts them as the largest for teams Purdue will face this season and about 3 McDonald’s ¼ pounders heavier than Minnesota’s LBs. They are right about where the other two units in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position and the collective starts are again good at 51.
Vegas predicts Wisconsin by 3 points (Opened up at -5.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 21-17 Purdue win
Sagarin predicts a 0.47 point Purdue win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 0.39 point Wisconsin win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Wisconsin
QB O’Connell NR..........Mertz 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Mellusi 3* (Clemson)
WR/FB Wright 4*..........J. Chenal NR
WR Bell 4*.........……….Davis 4*
WR Sheffield 3*............ Pryor 3*
TE Durham 3*.................Ferguson 3*
LT Long 2*......................Beach 3*
LG Witt 2*...................... Seltzner NR
C Hartwig 4*................... Tippmann 3*
RG Holstege 2*............... J Nelson 4*
RT Miller 3*.....................Bruss 3*/Bortolini 3*
DE Mitchell 3*..................Henningsen NR (OL)
DT Johnson 3*………..….Benton 3*
DT Dean 3*…....................Mullens 3*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............Burks 4*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Sanborn 4*
LB Douglas 2* ………........L. Chenal 3*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Herbig 4*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..…........Hicks 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................C. Williams 3* (ATH)
FS Allen 3*......………........S. Nelson 3* (ATH)
SS Grant 4*..........................Wilder 3* (Houston)
The script has flipped a bit this year as Wisconsin comes into their game with Purdue sporting a worse record of the two and it’s the Boilermakers, not the Badgers, who have the number next to their name.
This matchup was canceled last season primarily due to a Covid outbreak among the Wisconsin players but my unfounded suspicion is that it was the Badger’s missing key skill players, primarily QBs, that prompted the shutdown of athletic activities in Madison. You may recall that starting QB, Jack Coan (now at Notre Dame) had broken his foot prior to the season and was unavailable. Backup, Graham Mertz, and his backup, 3rd stringer Chase Wolf, were quarantined so had Wisconsin chosen to play (they didn’t meet the B10 standard for “automatic cancelation”) they would have had to trot out their 4th string QB for the game. Their games against Purdue and Nebraska did not take place.
Thus, it’s a little different than most years to point out the changes from year to year. As mentioned, their previous starter at QB has moved on and Graham Mertz is behind center. Mertz arrived in Madison as Wisconsin’s highest rated QB recruit of all time and was lauded for his performance in the Army All-American game following his high school career.
The 2020 season for Mertz got off to a rousing success being nearly perfect in their opening game against Illinois where he threw for 248 yards and 5 TDs to 0 Interceptions on 20 of 21 pass attempts. Considerable praise was heaped on Mertz following that game with “Heisman” and “All-American” part of the chatter. It was a wonderful performance, but it was against Illinois.
I’m not a scout but, after breaking down Mertz’ throws and tendencies in that game, it appeared that the bulk of his throws were easy checkdowns to his running backs and tight end. The only deep throws that were completed were to receivers running wide open against blown Illinois coverage.
That theme has continued and I believe opponent’s DC’s have caught on for since that initial game last year, Mertz is completing just 56.3% of his passes for 157 yards per game and has 12 interceptions to just 6 touchdowns (a 1:2 ratio).
Making matters worse is that Wisconsin’s wide outs aren’t at the same level as a number of other B10 teams. There’s no Autman-Bell or Olave to keep opposing DCs up at night as evidenced by Wisconsin’s leading receiver being their Tight End, Ferguson, with 20 receptions for 179 yards (29.8ypg). The two starting wideouts, Davis and Pryor, have caught 18 and 17 passes for 241 and 216 yards respectfully. Not helping matters is backup WR Devin Chandler just went “Rico” and put his name in the transfer portal. He had no receptions this season but had seen some offensive snaps. More importantly, he was the Badger’s #1 punt returner. Having a backup there could be key.
Average to poor QB play isn’t anything new in Madison. It’s rare for Badger QBs to be much more than game managers and simply rely heavily on their running game. The trouble is that there is no Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon, Ron Dayne, etc. to carry the ball this season. There still is talent at the running back position, but it doesn’t appear to have someone “special” like so many of those teams have had year in and year out.
Toting the rock now is Clemson transfer, Chez Mellusi. Having started all 6 games, he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has three TDs to his name. He’s already had nearly as many rushing attempts this year as he had in two years at Clemson. The upcoming star however might be Freshman, Braelon Allen. After not getting a touch in their loss to Penn State to open the season, he’s had 18 and 16 carries the past two weeks and has cracked the 100 yard mark in each of those games. For the season, he’s averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
With Mertz’s game having some limitations, Wisconsin is relying even more heavily on their running game. Expect that to continue on Saturday since….
The QB may change; the running backs may change, but; the Offensive Line is pretty much the same year in and year out…massive. Coach Tiller once described the Wisconsin line as “the biggest line in captivity” and it is still the case. No longer the largest (Minnesota), they still are on the upper end of the (truck) scale. And while their yards per rush attempt (4.5) is good, with their issues in the passing game, it’s allowed some teams to crowd the box and limit that aspect of their offense.
With all of the issues with the offense, Wisconsin has still managed to win three games, largely due to their defense.
For the season, Wisconsin has the #2 ranked Total Defense in the country and is #3 in Rushing Defense (even after playing Army). They also come in ranked #20th in Pass Efficiency Defense and #26 in Scoring Defense (their offense shares some of that blame).
Unlike Iowa who has feasted on turnovers, Wisconsin’s defense has just 4 for the season (14th in conference/124th nationally). Coupled with the number of turnovers the offense has coughed up, Wisconsin is dead last (130th) in the NCAA in Turnover Margin.
While their D-Line and LBs are quite good, the fact that some of their opponents haven’t thrown the ball much may play into their below average number of sacks and TFLs (10th and 9th in conference/70th and 75th nationally).
Again, the raw passing yards allowed is tops in the conference and 8th nationally but they have faced teams with Passing Offenses ranked: #31 Notre Dame, #35 PSU, #56 Eastern Michigan, #103 Michigan, #122 Illinois, #129 Army. Not a collection of high powered passing attacks.
At some point, the lack of Offensive production has to wear down the defense and I believe that is evident in the points they’ve given up this season. Only two teams (ND and Michigan) have scored on the Badgers in the first half of their games (23 points total). However, Wisconsin has given up 93 points in the second half of those games, getting outscored by nearly a 2:1 margin (53 points).
Regarding injuries, Wisconsin seems to be a little banged up. The only starter listed as questionable is the previously mentioned RT but I suspect Wisconsin’s defense might be having their issues too. The Badgers got a bye early in the season (Week 3) so Saturday will be their 5th game in a row after facing ND, Michigan, Illinois and Army. The first three of those all have good sized O-Lines and probably banged on the Badger defense pretty good. They then faced Army who ran the ball 50 times and Black Knight’s triple-option attack forces everyone on defense to be active on each play. No one got a play off last week. So, it will be curious to see if Wisconsin’s defense can answer the Bell (pun intended).
From all reports, Purdue should have basically the same lineup against Wisconsin as they did against Iowa. Not getting any additional players back (Horvath in particular) but also apparently not losing any players either (a welcome relief).
For at least one game, QB O’Connell avoided the turnover bug as for the first time this year, he came away without any turnovers (fumbles or interceptions). His accuracy was what we’ve come to expect (75%) and, as a result, Purdue was able to march up and down the field on Iowa, not by completing any deep balls, but moving the chains with the intermediate game.
I somewhat doubt, Wisconsin will play a similar style this Saturday.
Wisconsin has shown they can shut down running offenses but it will be important for Purdue to at least give the semblance of a running game, very similar to how they manufactured a running game against Iowa. We could see the three-headed QB monster again but I’d expect Brohm to have Plummer or Burton pass more when they are in to keep Wisconsin on their toes.
Luckily, given Wisconsin’s ability to shut down the run game, it’s a good thing that Purdue likes to throw the ball coming in with the 10th best Passing Offense nationally.
Wisconsin is unlikely to play as much zone as Iowa and will look to blitz O’Connell and try and force turnovers. If the O-Line can hold up like they did against Iowa, it should give O’Connell time to pick apart the Wisconsin pass defense. One note about Wisconsin’s back 7, they aren’t that tall as a group. The LBs all are listed at 6’2” and two of the DB’s are listed at 5’10” with only the Free Safety (6’2”) and one of the CB’s (6’0”) topping the 6’ mark. Like against Iowa, Purdue’s tall receivers should have an edge on 50/50 balls.
Speaking of the O-Line and the job they did, one aspect of their play which I haven’t seen brought up was that they had no pre-snap penalties and just a single holding call (Long in 3rd Quarter and Purdue converted anyway) in the game. Contrast that to Iowa’s game with PSU where PSU’s line had numerous false starts due to the crowd noise putting PSU even further in a hole. Playing on the road in the B10 is hard as it is, no sense in making it harder on the offense, and the O-Line did their part.
One thing we haven’t seem much of all season from Purdue have been the “gadget plays”. This week might be the right time to spring some on an unsuspecting and active Badger defense.
Purdue’s much maligned defense (and deservedly so) of recent years is a thing of past so far. While one shouldn’t be completely surprised given the new DC’s record at Marshall last season (tops in the nation in Scoring Offense), but we also saw Diaco turn around Louisiana Tech in his one season there, so people probably had a reason to be somewhat skeptical.
But, halfway through the season, there’s Purdue siting in the Top 5 nationally in Scoring Defense (right behind PSU). What’s more, they’re 3rd in the Nation in Red Zone Defense (right behind PSU again). And, if that’s not enough, they’re 5th in 4th Down Conversion Defense (PSU not listed), 5th in Pass Efficiency Defense and 6th in First Downs allowed. Not so lofty of a category is 3rd Down Conversion Defense where they rank 45th. Put that altogether and Purdue sports a Top 10 Total Defense for the first half of the season. (How many bets could you have won in August with that factoid?)
As mentioned, Wisconsin is going to run, run and run some more. Purdue’s Rush Defense is a respectable 30th nationally but has given up some big yardage to ND, Illinois and Minnesota so watch how Purdue chooses to play Wisconsin’s running game as that may tip the balance of the game.
One thing going in Purdue’s favor should be the presence of G. Karlaftkis. Obviously a beast in passing situations, it’s likely that Wisconsin will have to use their TE or a RB to double team him, and, while that may take George out of the play, it should impact Wisconsin’s passing game (TE is leading receiver) and running game (may not be able to play freshman as much due to blocking responsibilities). Again, with Wisconsin’s RT questionable, George may get triple teamed like we saw ND do when their tackles were young and inexperienced. Great players can impact the game in a lot of different ways.
After going through five games with just two takeaways, Purdue erupted for four against the Hawkeyes. The last time Purdue’s defense forced four turnovers was in game #2 last year against Illinois (2 fumble recoveries, 2 INTS). Prior to that, Purdue turned this same Wisconsin team over four times in the 2019 game (3 fumble recoveries, 1 INT) but was only able to turn those into 7 points.
All in all, Saturday will be a big test for Purdue. Try to get the 17 year monkey off of their back; keep some momentum going off of the big Iowa win; stay in the hunt for the B10 West championship, and; get one win away from bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018.
The recipe for success probably isn’t too complicated. Don’t turn the ball over and stop the run. Easier said than done but there it is.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the high-50’s at kickoff. Winds should be light at 5mph. Showers are expected in the evening but everyone should be at Harry’s by then.
Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Wisconsin Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: A number of teams on this season’s schedule have already factored in the player’s extra year of eligibility. Where possible, I’ve not done so in order to try and get a truer picture of each team’s experience. Thus, my numbers may not always jibe with other sites). Purdue has not released a 2-deep yet (Purdue’s should come out on Thursday) so I have made some educated guesses as to starters.
- Flipping back and forth again between big and small O-Lines, Wisconsin is back on the big side averaging 312.2 lbs. Not as experienced as the Minnesota or Illinois lines, but better than Iowa, they come in with an average of 3.0 years of experience. Collectively, they will have 67 starts among them. Again, nowhere near Minnesota or Illinois, they will be about even with ND’s in that regard. There are two new starters this year while the most experienced player (Bruss at RT with 29 starts) is still questionable having missed their games with Illinois and Army. If Bruss can’t go, his backup, Bortolini, is a redshirt freshman with 2 starts this season.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Wisconsin line by about 29.7 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 49 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Wisconsin and PSU. They have a collective 43 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Wisconsin. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 99. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Wisconsin features a 3-4 scheme and as such, for comparison, we count their larger OLB as a DE. Even counting a LB as a DE, at 287.5 lbs, they are scheduled to be well above the average size of D-lines Purdue will face this season, and 3rd largest (Maryland, Michigan) in the B10. They have very good experience as they come in with a 3.5 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by just 18.5 lbs per man. With three multi-year starters, they’ll have a very good 68 starts between them. This is not Iowa’s line.
- Wisconsin usually has a good set of LBs and this year is no exception and all three are multi-year starters. Like the other two position groups, they are above average sized at 241.3 lbs., which puts them as the largest for teams Purdue will face this season and about 3 McDonald’s ¼ pounders heavier than Minnesota’s LBs. They are right about where the other two units in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position and the collective starts are again good at 51.
Vegas predicts Wisconsin by 3 points (Opened up at -5.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 21-17 Purdue win
Sagarin predicts a 0.47 point Purdue win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 0.39 point Wisconsin win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Wisconsin
QB O’Connell NR..........Mertz 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Mellusi 3* (Clemson)
WR/FB Wright 4*..........J. Chenal NR
WR Bell 4*.........……….Davis 4*
WR Sheffield 3*............ Pryor 3*
TE Durham 3*.................Ferguson 3*
LT Long 2*......................Beach 3*
LG Witt 2*...................... Seltzner NR
C Hartwig 4*................... Tippmann 3*
RG Holstege 2*............... J Nelson 4*
RT Miller 3*.....................Bruss 3*/Bortolini 3*
DE Mitchell 3*..................Henningsen NR (OL)
DT Johnson 3*………..….Benton 3*
DT Dean 3*…....................Mullens 3*
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............Burks 4*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Sanborn 4*
LB Douglas 2* ………........L. Chenal 3*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Herbig 4*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..…........Hicks 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................C. Williams 3* (ATH)
FS Allen 3*......………........S. Nelson 3* (ATH)
SS Grant 4*..........................Wilder 3* (Houston)
The script has flipped a bit this year as Wisconsin comes into their game with Purdue sporting a worse record of the two and it’s the Boilermakers, not the Badgers, who have the number next to their name.
This matchup was canceled last season primarily due to a Covid outbreak among the Wisconsin players but my unfounded suspicion is that it was the Badger’s missing key skill players, primarily QBs, that prompted the shutdown of athletic activities in Madison. You may recall that starting QB, Jack Coan (now at Notre Dame) had broken his foot prior to the season and was unavailable. Backup, Graham Mertz, and his backup, 3rd stringer Chase Wolf, were quarantined so had Wisconsin chosen to play (they didn’t meet the B10 standard for “automatic cancelation”) they would have had to trot out their 4th string QB for the game. Their games against Purdue and Nebraska did not take place.
Thus, it’s a little different than most years to point out the changes from year to year. As mentioned, their previous starter at QB has moved on and Graham Mertz is behind center. Mertz arrived in Madison as Wisconsin’s highest rated QB recruit of all time and was lauded for his performance in the Army All-American game following his high school career.
The 2020 season for Mertz got off to a rousing success being nearly perfect in their opening game against Illinois where he threw for 248 yards and 5 TDs to 0 Interceptions on 20 of 21 pass attempts. Considerable praise was heaped on Mertz following that game with “Heisman” and “All-American” part of the chatter. It was a wonderful performance, but it was against Illinois.
I’m not a scout but, after breaking down Mertz’ throws and tendencies in that game, it appeared that the bulk of his throws were easy checkdowns to his running backs and tight end. The only deep throws that were completed were to receivers running wide open against blown Illinois coverage.
That theme has continued and I believe opponent’s DC’s have caught on for since that initial game last year, Mertz is completing just 56.3% of his passes for 157 yards per game and has 12 interceptions to just 6 touchdowns (a 1:2 ratio).
Making matters worse is that Wisconsin’s wide outs aren’t at the same level as a number of other B10 teams. There’s no Autman-Bell or Olave to keep opposing DCs up at night as evidenced by Wisconsin’s leading receiver being their Tight End, Ferguson, with 20 receptions for 179 yards (29.8ypg). The two starting wideouts, Davis and Pryor, have caught 18 and 17 passes for 241 and 216 yards respectfully. Not helping matters is backup WR Devin Chandler just went “Rico” and put his name in the transfer portal. He had no receptions this season but had seen some offensive snaps. More importantly, he was the Badger’s #1 punt returner. Having a backup there could be key.
Average to poor QB play isn’t anything new in Madison. It’s rare for Badger QBs to be much more than game managers and simply rely heavily on their running game. The trouble is that there is no Jonathan Taylor, Melvin Gordon, Ron Dayne, etc. to carry the ball this season. There still is talent at the running back position, but it doesn’t appear to have someone “special” like so many of those teams have had year in and year out.
Toting the rock now is Clemson transfer, Chez Mellusi. Having started all 6 games, he’s averaging 4.8 yards per carry and has three TDs to his name. He’s already had nearly as many rushing attempts this year as he had in two years at Clemson. The upcoming star however might be Freshman, Braelon Allen. After not getting a touch in their loss to Penn State to open the season, he’s had 18 and 16 carries the past two weeks and has cracked the 100 yard mark in each of those games. For the season, he’s averaging 6.3 yards per carry.
With Mertz’s game having some limitations, Wisconsin is relying even more heavily on their running game. Expect that to continue on Saturday since….
The QB may change; the running backs may change, but; the Offensive Line is pretty much the same year in and year out…massive. Coach Tiller once described the Wisconsin line as “the biggest line in captivity” and it is still the case. No longer the largest (Minnesota), they still are on the upper end of the (truck) scale. And while their yards per rush attempt (4.5) is good, with their issues in the passing game, it’s allowed some teams to crowd the box and limit that aspect of their offense.
With all of the issues with the offense, Wisconsin has still managed to win three games, largely due to their defense.
For the season, Wisconsin has the #2 ranked Total Defense in the country and is #3 in Rushing Defense (even after playing Army). They also come in ranked #20th in Pass Efficiency Defense and #26 in Scoring Defense (their offense shares some of that blame).
Unlike Iowa who has feasted on turnovers, Wisconsin’s defense has just 4 for the season (14th in conference/124th nationally). Coupled with the number of turnovers the offense has coughed up, Wisconsin is dead last (130th) in the NCAA in Turnover Margin.
While their D-Line and LBs are quite good, the fact that some of their opponents haven’t thrown the ball much may play into their below average number of sacks and TFLs (10th and 9th in conference/70th and 75th nationally).
Again, the raw passing yards allowed is tops in the conference and 8th nationally but they have faced teams with Passing Offenses ranked: #31 Notre Dame, #35 PSU, #56 Eastern Michigan, #103 Michigan, #122 Illinois, #129 Army. Not a collection of high powered passing attacks.
At some point, the lack of Offensive production has to wear down the defense and I believe that is evident in the points they’ve given up this season. Only two teams (ND and Michigan) have scored on the Badgers in the first half of their games (23 points total). However, Wisconsin has given up 93 points in the second half of those games, getting outscored by nearly a 2:1 margin (53 points).
Regarding injuries, Wisconsin seems to be a little banged up. The only starter listed as questionable is the previously mentioned RT but I suspect Wisconsin’s defense might be having their issues too. The Badgers got a bye early in the season (Week 3) so Saturday will be their 5th game in a row after facing ND, Michigan, Illinois and Army. The first three of those all have good sized O-Lines and probably banged on the Badger defense pretty good. They then faced Army who ran the ball 50 times and Black Knight’s triple-option attack forces everyone on defense to be active on each play. No one got a play off last week. So, it will be curious to see if Wisconsin’s defense can answer the Bell (pun intended).
From all reports, Purdue should have basically the same lineup against Wisconsin as they did against Iowa. Not getting any additional players back (Horvath in particular) but also apparently not losing any players either (a welcome relief).
For at least one game, QB O’Connell avoided the turnover bug as for the first time this year, he came away without any turnovers (fumbles or interceptions). His accuracy was what we’ve come to expect (75%) and, as a result, Purdue was able to march up and down the field on Iowa, not by completing any deep balls, but moving the chains with the intermediate game.
I somewhat doubt, Wisconsin will play a similar style this Saturday.
Wisconsin has shown they can shut down running offenses but it will be important for Purdue to at least give the semblance of a running game, very similar to how they manufactured a running game against Iowa. We could see the three-headed QB monster again but I’d expect Brohm to have Plummer or Burton pass more when they are in to keep Wisconsin on their toes.
Luckily, given Wisconsin’s ability to shut down the run game, it’s a good thing that Purdue likes to throw the ball coming in with the 10th best Passing Offense nationally.
Wisconsin is unlikely to play as much zone as Iowa and will look to blitz O’Connell and try and force turnovers. If the O-Line can hold up like they did against Iowa, it should give O’Connell time to pick apart the Wisconsin pass defense. One note about Wisconsin’s back 7, they aren’t that tall as a group. The LBs all are listed at 6’2” and two of the DB’s are listed at 5’10” with only the Free Safety (6’2”) and one of the CB’s (6’0”) topping the 6’ mark. Like against Iowa, Purdue’s tall receivers should have an edge on 50/50 balls.
Speaking of the O-Line and the job they did, one aspect of their play which I haven’t seen brought up was that they had no pre-snap penalties and just a single holding call (Long in 3rd Quarter and Purdue converted anyway) in the game. Contrast that to Iowa’s game with PSU where PSU’s line had numerous false starts due to the crowd noise putting PSU even further in a hole. Playing on the road in the B10 is hard as it is, no sense in making it harder on the offense, and the O-Line did their part.
One thing we haven’t seem much of all season from Purdue have been the “gadget plays”. This week might be the right time to spring some on an unsuspecting and active Badger defense.
Purdue’s much maligned defense (and deservedly so) of recent years is a thing of past so far. While one shouldn’t be completely surprised given the new DC’s record at Marshall last season (tops in the nation in Scoring Offense), but we also saw Diaco turn around Louisiana Tech in his one season there, so people probably had a reason to be somewhat skeptical.
But, halfway through the season, there’s Purdue siting in the Top 5 nationally in Scoring Defense (right behind PSU). What’s more, they’re 3rd in the Nation in Red Zone Defense (right behind PSU again). And, if that’s not enough, they’re 5th in 4th Down Conversion Defense (PSU not listed), 5th in Pass Efficiency Defense and 6th in First Downs allowed. Not so lofty of a category is 3rd Down Conversion Defense where they rank 45th. Put that altogether and Purdue sports a Top 10 Total Defense for the first half of the season. (How many bets could you have won in August with that factoid?)
As mentioned, Wisconsin is going to run, run and run some more. Purdue’s Rush Defense is a respectable 30th nationally but has given up some big yardage to ND, Illinois and Minnesota so watch how Purdue chooses to play Wisconsin’s running game as that may tip the balance of the game.
One thing going in Purdue’s favor should be the presence of G. Karlaftkis. Obviously a beast in passing situations, it’s likely that Wisconsin will have to use their TE or a RB to double team him, and, while that may take George out of the play, it should impact Wisconsin’s passing game (TE is leading receiver) and running game (may not be able to play freshman as much due to blocking responsibilities). Again, with Wisconsin’s RT questionable, George may get triple teamed like we saw ND do when their tackles were young and inexperienced. Great players can impact the game in a lot of different ways.
After going through five games with just two takeaways, Purdue erupted for four against the Hawkeyes. The last time Purdue’s defense forced four turnovers was in game #2 last year against Illinois (2 fumble recoveries, 2 INTS). Prior to that, Purdue turned this same Wisconsin team over four times in the 2019 game (3 fumble recoveries, 1 INT) but was only able to turn those into 7 points.
All in all, Saturday will be a big test for Purdue. Try to get the 17 year monkey off of their back; keep some momentum going off of the big Iowa win; stay in the hunt for the B10 West championship, and; get one win away from bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018.
The recipe for success probably isn’t too complicated. Don’t turn the ball over and stop the run. Easier said than done but there it is.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the high-50’s at kickoff. Winds should be light at 5mph. Showers are expected in the evening but everyone should be at Harry’s by then.
Let’s play football!
