Taking a look at the size and experience of the Wisconsin Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Purdue’s defense will face a Wisconsin O-line which again is massive and will be one of the larger sized units that Purdue will face this year at 322.4 lbs. which is well above average for B10 teams. While large for the B10 (2nd behind PSU), all of Purdue’s OOC opponents this season also had large OL so Wisconsin’s will actually be the 2nd largest (Missouri) that Purdue will have faced. Louisville (320.2lbs) and Ohio (319.0lbs) also were well above the average B10 team. As mentioned previously, the O-lines for this year’s B10 and OOC opponents are much younger than in years past. Still, Wisconsin comes in at 2.2 years of experience which even this year, is well below the B10 average. One starter (RT) has more than a year of starts with another (LG) having over a full year. Combined, they have 87 collective starts. They’ve also had to shuffle the line around some due to injuries. More on that below.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Larkin, Robinson, Wilson, Ezechukwu) averages about 270.0 lbs, down from the 283.5 lbs average of last year. They will be outweighed by the Wisconsin line by about 52.4 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.75 years, up from last year’s line of 3.2 year average. The size of this group will be well below average for a B10 team but conversely, well above average in terms of experience. As a unit they have decent experience as going into Saturday they have 67 collective starts. Assuming Neal starts again and Robinson moves to the outside to replace Larkin, the size of the line will increase to 287.5lbs, average experience will dip to 3.25 years and the number of starts will be unchanged.
- Purdue’s LBs (McCollum, Bentley, Bailey) come in at 243.3 lbs and are at 3.33 years of experience. That’s up about 1.5 lbs from last year and an additional year in collective experience (Up from 2.33 the last two years). They have a collective 77 starts between them (Counting McCollum’s starts at WKU). Size wise, this group is the largest in the B10 by 10+ lbs per man and above average in terms of experience.
- Purdue’s O-line (Hermanns, Evans, Baron, McCann, Steinmetz) will average 307.0 lbs per man, down by 2.6 lbs from last year’s 309.6 lbs. This puts them slightly below average compared to other B10 programs.They average 2.60 years of experience which is a significant drop from last year (3.6 years). This also places them just below average for the B10 and also for all opponents.Collectively, this group has 79 starts among them.
- At 289.5 lbs, Wisconsin’s D-line is well above the average sized D-Line Purdue will face this year. What’s more impressive is that due to them using a 3-4 formation, for the purposes of this comparison, I’ve added in their largest OLB to the D-Line. They will be also well above average in terms of experience with a 3.75 year average. Only one player has less than a year of starts, DE/OLB Dooley with 7. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by just 17.5lbs per man. As mentioned, they return three starters from last year and have a collective 62 starts between them.
- The Badger LBs also come in well above the average for Purdue’s opponents at 237.3 lbs. They are going to be slightly on the younger side with an average of 3.00 years at the position. They have one clear multi-year starter in TJ Edwards with 30 starts. Outside of him, their other two starters are relatively new this season. Together they have 50 starts.
Vegas predicts Wisconsin by 16.5 points
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 32-16 Wisconsin win
MasseyRatings predicts a 34-17 Wisconsin win
Sagarin predicts an 19.57 point Wisconsin win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 28.25 point Wisconsin win*
*CollegeFootballPoll is the Cosgrove Computer formula for picking winners. So far this year in Purdue’s games it’s picked:
- Louisville by 20.09 points (Purdue lost by 7, computer off by 13 points)
- Ohio by 8.57 points (Purdue won by 23 points. computer off by 31 points)
- Missouri by 7.63 points (Purdue won by 32 points, computer off by 39 points)
- Michigan by 9.16 points (Purdue lost by 19, only game where computer didn’t underplay Purdue)
- Minnesota by 5.74 (Purdue won by 14, computer off by 19.74)
So, take that prediction with a large grain of salt.
After playing three straight “M” teams, they’ll flip that letter upside down and face Wisconsin. As strange as it might seem, basically half way through the season, Purdue controls its own destiny to a B10 Championship. While I don’t think many people give Purdue much of a chance in this game, just last week, Iowa State was a 30 point road underdog to Oklahoma and were able to pull off that upset.
In a lot of ways, Purdue’s playing with House Money right now. Outside of the team and the coaches, there’s no real expectation of a victory on Saturday and regardless of the outcome, Purdue still has a nice roadmap to reach 6+ wins and become bowl eligible for the first time in 5 years. What’s really important, given some winnable games in the weeks following, that Purdue comes out of this game healthy.
Wisconsin, once again, seems to plug in new players into its system and continue to roll along. That plug and play isn’t confined to just players, Wisconsin is now on their 3rd Defensive Coordinator in as many years with Jim Leonhard taking over this season after just a couple of years in the coaching profession. Obviously this is his first Coordinator position and Wisconsin seemingly hasn’t missed a beat (Currently 10th nationally in Total Defense, 9th in Scoring Defense).
What is a bit unusual about Wisconsin this season is that they’ve been getting off to slow starts, at least on the offensive side of the ball. They were tied at halftime with Utah State; Up by 10 at halftime against Florida Atlantic; only scoring a TD and down at halftime to Northwestern; up by just a TD against Nebraska at the half.
Second halves however are a different story where Wisconsin has outscored their opposition 119-21 and 56-14 in the 4th quarter. Nebraska was able to score a defensive TD in the 3rd quarter while Northwestern scored 14 in the 4th quarter to account for all of the 2nd half scoring that Wisconsin has allowed.
It should be noted that Wisconsin’s schedule has been pretty light. They have not yet played a team who’s even remotely in the Top 25. In fact, none of the teams they’ve played received a single vote to be in the Top 25.
As is typical of a Wisconsin team, they like to run the ball. The Badger’s first game starting RB, Shaw, was replaced by a true Freshman, Jonathon Taylor. Taylor, 5’11” 214lbs, is now the leading rusher in the B10 and 4th nationally carrying the ball for 153.4 yards per game. With his career best game last week against Nebraska, where he carried for 249 yards on 25 rushes, he now has two 200 yard rushing games in his brief career and has that rare blend of speed and power. One thing I noted on Taylor’s runs against Nebraska is that he probably gained as many yards due to missed tackles or Nebraska not covering the cutback lanes, as he did by hitting the hole. Purdue is going to have to be technically sound in their tackling and in covering their assignments to eliminate those yards.
As good as they have played so far, Wisconsin is a bit banged up, especially along the O-line. The starting and backup Left Guards are both questionable for Saturday. Against Nebraska, Jason Erdmann (6’6” 337lbs So., 0 starts) replaced them for a half. Also, their left tackle injured an ankle several games ago which has forced him to the sidelines for a period of time in each of the last two games. In his place is a R-Frosh (Cole Van Lanen, 6’5” 307lbs). Normally, when a team experiences injuries along the O-line, especially to the starters on the left side of the line, the offense tends to bog down. Not so with Wisconsin as their O-linemen seem to be like sharks teeth where the replacement is right in position to take over if one is lost. Still, it could be a situation to watch, and or, exploit. Also note, that since Honnibrook is left handed, his “blind side” is going to be flipped to the right side.
With the potent running game, Wisconsin’s passing attack is more than adequate. Taking advantage of play action, the Wisconsin QB, Honnibrook, is able to find wide open receivers, backs and TEs. This shows up in their rankings for while the Passing Offense is only ranked #84 nationally, their Pass Efficiency is ranked 10th. This ranking is largely as a result of two games, Utah State and BYU (something about teams from Utah apparently) where Honnibrook’s passing rating was 197.37 and 277.39 respectively. Against Nebraska, he came back to earth a bit with a 116.42 QB rating.
Unfortunately I don’t have a breakdown of 3rd down conversions but antidotally against Nebraska, Wisconsin had a difficult time with 3rd and 6 yards or more. As mentioned, Honnibrook’s passing seems to be just adequate and it will be interesting to see if he can carry the team if, or when, an opponent is able to slow down Wisconsin’s running game.
One other item to note: Wisconsin is not afraid to run the ball in obvious passing situations and with their line and running backs, have been quite successful doing so at times. In other words, Purdue is going to have to respect the run even when they will be expecting a pass.
Wisconsin does have a very talented TE in Troy Fumagalli however he too has been a bit dinged up lately and has not started the last two games. If he is out Penniston is capable but does not have nearly the experience.
It’s hard to evaluate Wisconsin’s wide receivers as they are so rarely tasked with making plays in critical situations. They’re respectable but play more of a complementary role.
Regarding Purdue:
Purdue will be facing it’s 3rd opponent ranked 16th or higher (one of only 3 schools to do so this season. Clemson & Miss. State) and it’s second Top 10 ranked opponent (at game time), which sets it apart from those other two schools.
Purdue has never faced Wisconsin on October 14th but has won their last 5 road contests on that date. In fact, they are 5-1-2 in road games on that date with the lone loss being to Oberlin in 1893 (0-12).
This will also be Purdue’s first appearance this season on BTN. With the 3:30est kickoff, it continues the streak to 6 games where Purdue’s played “late games”.
As noted above, Purdue will get their 3rd ranked opponent and 2nd Top 10 team this week in Wisconsin. Defensively, Wisconsin is very similar to Michigan in their scheme, formations and how they can disrupt an offense.
Using the Michigan game as a lesson, Purdue was able to move the ball early in the game by utilizing a lot of misdirection and gadget plays. By the 2nd half, however, Michigan was able to generate a sufficient pass rush to eliminate any ability for Purdue to allow those gadget plays to be set up. In fact, they pretty much eliminated the ability for Purdue to allow any play to be run.
Thus, keeping Wisconsin’s defense and off balance enough to keep the QB upright is going to be job #1. It’s been three weeks since the Michigan game and Purdue’s O-line should have a good idea what to now expect in way of scheme. I also believe Coach Brohm should have also gained some knowledge about what this Purdue team can, and cannot do, against that type of defense and plan accordingly.
Getting Jones back against Minnesota was good for Purdue’s running game. While it looked at times he was just a tad rusty and a half-step slow at points, he still brings an element to the field that can’t be matched by Knox, Worship or Langford-Johnson. Fuller is still questionable for Saturday but when he does return and is 100%, it will be interesting to see how both he and Jones are utilized.
While the formations and scheme’s seem to be similar to Michigan, Wisconsin does play it a bit differently. Nebraska was actually able to get a bit of a running game going early in their game utilizing an ‘H” back or a fullback and Purdue could also utilize a second TE or Worship to present a similar formation.
One thing that Wisconsin seems to do different from Michigan is how they blitz. Michigan liked to bring their LBs to blitz whole Wisconsin tends to bring a DB. That may be the Leonhard’s background as a DB coming into play. Coming from their corner or safety position, the blitz often takes a bit longer to get to the QB. That delay might be enough to give Purdue’s QBs time to find an open receiver.
While Wisconsin did not resort to press coverage of Nebraska’s wide outs, some of that could be due to Nebraska’s wide outs of which they have three good ones. Michigan pressured Purdue’s wide outs so if Wisconsin chooses to do the same, it’s going to be a bit of a chess match between Brohm and Leonhard on how Purdue combats that strategy.
Wisconsin also used 3 and 4 man rushes dropping 8 or 7 into coverage. Frequently, those 3 and 4 man rushes were not able to pressure Nebraska’s QB which again gave him time to find open receivers. Even when dropping 7 or 8 into coverage, given enough time, a receiver will come open. Nebraska was able to take advantage of this coverage at least one particular time when they completed a 80 yard pass/run for a TD late in the 1st half.
One last item about Wisconsin’s defense and their DC, Leonhard. Being a 1st year DC and only being a coach for a couple of years, Purdue’s offense should be one of his toughest tests. He has not faced this type of offense up to now so again, if Purdue can get a little traction and keep Wisconsin’s defense on their heels, Leonhard may be hard pressed to anticipate Purdue’s scheme.
It’s typical that incoming JUCOs (at least the ones that Purdue signs) take a full year in the system to really maximize their potential. There are certainly exceptions to that rule but it seems to hold true for the most part.
That said, in the case of Purdue’s JUCO receivers (Wright and Zico), their snaps probably need to go down a bit until they’re better able to produce and, in Wright’s case, hold on to the ball. Whether it’s due to technique or a lingering injury, Wright has fumbled in two consecutive games at key points. For that matter, it would be nice for Holmes (a Grad transfer as opposed to a JUCO) to show up somewhere in Purdue’s offense other than on the side of a milk carton.
As discussed elsewhere, the beneficiary of the JUCO’s reduced number of snaps should be Sparks. He’s simply too athletic and talented to be in a support role. I’m not sure if he’s ready to replace Mahougou or Phillips just yet but needs to be in the regular rotation. Mahougou had a decent game against Minnesota so one could make a case that he’s settled into his role and Phillips is one of the better downfield blockers when he’s not a target so perhaps the starters stay the same. Still, Sparks needs to be on the field more.
One other benefit of getting Sparks into the regular rotation is that it should make it easier to run some gadget plays with him. Unlike last season when Burgess would take the field for a play and all eyes would then be focused on how he was going to get the ball (usually a fly sweep), having Sparks working as a legitimate WR, being targeted and catching passes will keep opposing defenses from keying in on him.
Defensively, Purdue is going to have their work cut out for them trying to stop the running game. Ranked #16 nationally and 1st in the B10, they follow their usual formula of a massive front line, multiple TEs, sometimes a fullback and always, a talented running back.
In their last game against Nebraska, they were able to run for 353 yards and while Taylor got the bulk of the carries and yards, Wisconsin ran their backups nearly as much.
Drilling down a little bit into Wisconsin’s ranking and we find that the teams they have faced have had varied success against the run through the first part of the season. Northwestern is ranked #50; Nebraska 61st; BYU 77th; Florida Atlantic 112th, and; Utah State 100th.
Purdue is currently ranked 66th nationally in rush defense. Arguably, some of that number can be chalked up to the Offense’s lack of 2nd half production against Michigan when Purdue got worn down and also had Bentley and Thineman out the better part of the half for targeting calls and in addition, Minnesota’s running game in the 1st half with those two players out. Minnesota ran for 148 yards in that half compared to just 79 yards in the 2nd half.
In general, Purdue’s defense has been light years better defending the run against running backs (QB’s running have been a different story). I’d expect Coach Holt to have another good game plan devised to continue that trend so I wouldn’t look for Wisconsin’s Taylor to set another career best.
While it hurts to have Larkin a bit dinged up at DE, moving Robinson back out there, especially considering the opponent, may not be the worst thing that could happen. You get a bigger, stronger DE to help hold the edge against Wisconsin’s running game and while you may lose a bit rushing the QB, that is probably the least of Purdue’s concerns this week.
In order to win this game, it’s not brain surgery. Purdue needs to keep their offense on the field as much as possible and move the chains against Wisconsin’s defense, limit Wisconsin’s running game as best as possible and win the turnover battle (preferably not turning the ball over at all). Nebraska played toe to toe with Wisconsin for the better part of three quarters. Purdue needs to do so for all four.
This should be Purdue’s best opportunity to win against Wisconsin in over a decade. As mentioned earlier, Purdue can control their own destiny with a win which would put them far and away ahead of anyone’s reasonably expectations for this season.
Saturday can’t get here soon enough. Let’s play football!
- Purdue’s defense will face a Wisconsin O-line which again is massive and will be one of the larger sized units that Purdue will face this year at 322.4 lbs. which is well above average for B10 teams. While large for the B10 (2nd behind PSU), all of Purdue’s OOC opponents this season also had large OL so Wisconsin’s will actually be the 2nd largest (Missouri) that Purdue will have faced. Louisville (320.2lbs) and Ohio (319.0lbs) also were well above the average B10 team. As mentioned previously, the O-lines for this year’s B10 and OOC opponents are much younger than in years past. Still, Wisconsin comes in at 2.2 years of experience which even this year, is well below the B10 average. One starter (RT) has more than a year of starts with another (LG) having over a full year. Combined, they have 87 collective starts. They’ve also had to shuffle the line around some due to injuries. More on that below.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Larkin, Robinson, Wilson, Ezechukwu) averages about 270.0 lbs, down from the 283.5 lbs average of last year. They will be outweighed by the Wisconsin line by about 52.4 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.75 years, up from last year’s line of 3.2 year average. The size of this group will be well below average for a B10 team but conversely, well above average in terms of experience. As a unit they have decent experience as going into Saturday they have 67 collective starts. Assuming Neal starts again and Robinson moves to the outside to replace Larkin, the size of the line will increase to 287.5lbs, average experience will dip to 3.25 years and the number of starts will be unchanged.
- Purdue’s LBs (McCollum, Bentley, Bailey) come in at 243.3 lbs and are at 3.33 years of experience. That’s up about 1.5 lbs from last year and an additional year in collective experience (Up from 2.33 the last two years). They have a collective 77 starts between them (Counting McCollum’s starts at WKU). Size wise, this group is the largest in the B10 by 10+ lbs per man and above average in terms of experience.
- Purdue’s O-line (Hermanns, Evans, Baron, McCann, Steinmetz) will average 307.0 lbs per man, down by 2.6 lbs from last year’s 309.6 lbs. This puts them slightly below average compared to other B10 programs.They average 2.60 years of experience which is a significant drop from last year (3.6 years). This also places them just below average for the B10 and also for all opponents.Collectively, this group has 79 starts among them.
- At 289.5 lbs, Wisconsin’s D-line is well above the average sized D-Line Purdue will face this year. What’s more impressive is that due to them using a 3-4 formation, for the purposes of this comparison, I’ve added in their largest OLB to the D-Line. They will be also well above average in terms of experience with a 3.75 year average. Only one player has less than a year of starts, DE/OLB Dooley with 7. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by just 17.5lbs per man. As mentioned, they return three starters from last year and have a collective 62 starts between them.
- The Badger LBs also come in well above the average for Purdue’s opponents at 237.3 lbs. They are going to be slightly on the younger side with an average of 3.00 years at the position. They have one clear multi-year starter in TJ Edwards with 30 starts. Outside of him, their other two starters are relatively new this season. Together they have 50 starts.
Vegas predicts Wisconsin by 16.5 points
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 32-16 Wisconsin win
MasseyRatings predicts a 34-17 Wisconsin win
Sagarin predicts an 19.57 point Wisconsin win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 28.25 point Wisconsin win*
*CollegeFootballPoll is the Cosgrove Computer formula for picking winners. So far this year in Purdue’s games it’s picked:
- Louisville by 20.09 points (Purdue lost by 7, computer off by 13 points)
- Ohio by 8.57 points (Purdue won by 23 points. computer off by 31 points)
- Missouri by 7.63 points (Purdue won by 32 points, computer off by 39 points)
- Michigan by 9.16 points (Purdue lost by 19, only game where computer didn’t underplay Purdue)
- Minnesota by 5.74 (Purdue won by 14, computer off by 19.74)
So, take that prediction with a large grain of salt.
After playing three straight “M” teams, they’ll flip that letter upside down and face Wisconsin. As strange as it might seem, basically half way through the season, Purdue controls its own destiny to a B10 Championship. While I don’t think many people give Purdue much of a chance in this game, just last week, Iowa State was a 30 point road underdog to Oklahoma and were able to pull off that upset.
In a lot of ways, Purdue’s playing with House Money right now. Outside of the team and the coaches, there’s no real expectation of a victory on Saturday and regardless of the outcome, Purdue still has a nice roadmap to reach 6+ wins and become bowl eligible for the first time in 5 years. What’s really important, given some winnable games in the weeks following, that Purdue comes out of this game healthy.
Wisconsin, once again, seems to plug in new players into its system and continue to roll along. That plug and play isn’t confined to just players, Wisconsin is now on their 3rd Defensive Coordinator in as many years with Jim Leonhard taking over this season after just a couple of years in the coaching profession. Obviously this is his first Coordinator position and Wisconsin seemingly hasn’t missed a beat (Currently 10th nationally in Total Defense, 9th in Scoring Defense).
What is a bit unusual about Wisconsin this season is that they’ve been getting off to slow starts, at least on the offensive side of the ball. They were tied at halftime with Utah State; Up by 10 at halftime against Florida Atlantic; only scoring a TD and down at halftime to Northwestern; up by just a TD against Nebraska at the half.
Second halves however are a different story where Wisconsin has outscored their opposition 119-21 and 56-14 in the 4th quarter. Nebraska was able to score a defensive TD in the 3rd quarter while Northwestern scored 14 in the 4th quarter to account for all of the 2nd half scoring that Wisconsin has allowed.
It should be noted that Wisconsin’s schedule has been pretty light. They have not yet played a team who’s even remotely in the Top 25. In fact, none of the teams they’ve played received a single vote to be in the Top 25.
As is typical of a Wisconsin team, they like to run the ball. The Badger’s first game starting RB, Shaw, was replaced by a true Freshman, Jonathon Taylor. Taylor, 5’11” 214lbs, is now the leading rusher in the B10 and 4th nationally carrying the ball for 153.4 yards per game. With his career best game last week against Nebraska, where he carried for 249 yards on 25 rushes, he now has two 200 yard rushing games in his brief career and has that rare blend of speed and power. One thing I noted on Taylor’s runs against Nebraska is that he probably gained as many yards due to missed tackles or Nebraska not covering the cutback lanes, as he did by hitting the hole. Purdue is going to have to be technically sound in their tackling and in covering their assignments to eliminate those yards.
As good as they have played so far, Wisconsin is a bit banged up, especially along the O-line. The starting and backup Left Guards are both questionable for Saturday. Against Nebraska, Jason Erdmann (6’6” 337lbs So., 0 starts) replaced them for a half. Also, their left tackle injured an ankle several games ago which has forced him to the sidelines for a period of time in each of the last two games. In his place is a R-Frosh (Cole Van Lanen, 6’5” 307lbs). Normally, when a team experiences injuries along the O-line, especially to the starters on the left side of the line, the offense tends to bog down. Not so with Wisconsin as their O-linemen seem to be like sharks teeth where the replacement is right in position to take over if one is lost. Still, it could be a situation to watch, and or, exploit. Also note, that since Honnibrook is left handed, his “blind side” is going to be flipped to the right side.
With the potent running game, Wisconsin’s passing attack is more than adequate. Taking advantage of play action, the Wisconsin QB, Honnibrook, is able to find wide open receivers, backs and TEs. This shows up in their rankings for while the Passing Offense is only ranked #84 nationally, their Pass Efficiency is ranked 10th. This ranking is largely as a result of two games, Utah State and BYU (something about teams from Utah apparently) where Honnibrook’s passing rating was 197.37 and 277.39 respectively. Against Nebraska, he came back to earth a bit with a 116.42 QB rating.
Unfortunately I don’t have a breakdown of 3rd down conversions but antidotally against Nebraska, Wisconsin had a difficult time with 3rd and 6 yards or more. As mentioned, Honnibrook’s passing seems to be just adequate and it will be interesting to see if he can carry the team if, or when, an opponent is able to slow down Wisconsin’s running game.
One other item to note: Wisconsin is not afraid to run the ball in obvious passing situations and with their line and running backs, have been quite successful doing so at times. In other words, Purdue is going to have to respect the run even when they will be expecting a pass.
Wisconsin does have a very talented TE in Troy Fumagalli however he too has been a bit dinged up lately and has not started the last two games. If he is out Penniston is capable but does not have nearly the experience.
It’s hard to evaluate Wisconsin’s wide receivers as they are so rarely tasked with making plays in critical situations. They’re respectable but play more of a complementary role.
Regarding Purdue:
Purdue will be facing it’s 3rd opponent ranked 16th or higher (one of only 3 schools to do so this season. Clemson & Miss. State) and it’s second Top 10 ranked opponent (at game time), which sets it apart from those other two schools.
Purdue has never faced Wisconsin on October 14th but has won their last 5 road contests on that date. In fact, they are 5-1-2 in road games on that date with the lone loss being to Oberlin in 1893 (0-12).
This will also be Purdue’s first appearance this season on BTN. With the 3:30est kickoff, it continues the streak to 6 games where Purdue’s played “late games”.
As noted above, Purdue will get their 3rd ranked opponent and 2nd Top 10 team this week in Wisconsin. Defensively, Wisconsin is very similar to Michigan in their scheme, formations and how they can disrupt an offense.
Using the Michigan game as a lesson, Purdue was able to move the ball early in the game by utilizing a lot of misdirection and gadget plays. By the 2nd half, however, Michigan was able to generate a sufficient pass rush to eliminate any ability for Purdue to allow those gadget plays to be set up. In fact, they pretty much eliminated the ability for Purdue to allow any play to be run.
Thus, keeping Wisconsin’s defense and off balance enough to keep the QB upright is going to be job #1. It’s been three weeks since the Michigan game and Purdue’s O-line should have a good idea what to now expect in way of scheme. I also believe Coach Brohm should have also gained some knowledge about what this Purdue team can, and cannot do, against that type of defense and plan accordingly.
Getting Jones back against Minnesota was good for Purdue’s running game. While it looked at times he was just a tad rusty and a half-step slow at points, he still brings an element to the field that can’t be matched by Knox, Worship or Langford-Johnson. Fuller is still questionable for Saturday but when he does return and is 100%, it will be interesting to see how both he and Jones are utilized.
While the formations and scheme’s seem to be similar to Michigan, Wisconsin does play it a bit differently. Nebraska was actually able to get a bit of a running game going early in their game utilizing an ‘H” back or a fullback and Purdue could also utilize a second TE or Worship to present a similar formation.
One thing that Wisconsin seems to do different from Michigan is how they blitz. Michigan liked to bring their LBs to blitz whole Wisconsin tends to bring a DB. That may be the Leonhard’s background as a DB coming into play. Coming from their corner or safety position, the blitz often takes a bit longer to get to the QB. That delay might be enough to give Purdue’s QBs time to find an open receiver.
While Wisconsin did not resort to press coverage of Nebraska’s wide outs, some of that could be due to Nebraska’s wide outs of which they have three good ones. Michigan pressured Purdue’s wide outs so if Wisconsin chooses to do the same, it’s going to be a bit of a chess match between Brohm and Leonhard on how Purdue combats that strategy.
Wisconsin also used 3 and 4 man rushes dropping 8 or 7 into coverage. Frequently, those 3 and 4 man rushes were not able to pressure Nebraska’s QB which again gave him time to find open receivers. Even when dropping 7 or 8 into coverage, given enough time, a receiver will come open. Nebraska was able to take advantage of this coverage at least one particular time when they completed a 80 yard pass/run for a TD late in the 1st half.
One last item about Wisconsin’s defense and their DC, Leonhard. Being a 1st year DC and only being a coach for a couple of years, Purdue’s offense should be one of his toughest tests. He has not faced this type of offense up to now so again, if Purdue can get a little traction and keep Wisconsin’s defense on their heels, Leonhard may be hard pressed to anticipate Purdue’s scheme.
It’s typical that incoming JUCOs (at least the ones that Purdue signs) take a full year in the system to really maximize their potential. There are certainly exceptions to that rule but it seems to hold true for the most part.
That said, in the case of Purdue’s JUCO receivers (Wright and Zico), their snaps probably need to go down a bit until they’re better able to produce and, in Wright’s case, hold on to the ball. Whether it’s due to technique or a lingering injury, Wright has fumbled in two consecutive games at key points. For that matter, it would be nice for Holmes (a Grad transfer as opposed to a JUCO) to show up somewhere in Purdue’s offense other than on the side of a milk carton.
As discussed elsewhere, the beneficiary of the JUCO’s reduced number of snaps should be Sparks. He’s simply too athletic and talented to be in a support role. I’m not sure if he’s ready to replace Mahougou or Phillips just yet but needs to be in the regular rotation. Mahougou had a decent game against Minnesota so one could make a case that he’s settled into his role and Phillips is one of the better downfield blockers when he’s not a target so perhaps the starters stay the same. Still, Sparks needs to be on the field more.
One other benefit of getting Sparks into the regular rotation is that it should make it easier to run some gadget plays with him. Unlike last season when Burgess would take the field for a play and all eyes would then be focused on how he was going to get the ball (usually a fly sweep), having Sparks working as a legitimate WR, being targeted and catching passes will keep opposing defenses from keying in on him.
Defensively, Purdue is going to have their work cut out for them trying to stop the running game. Ranked #16 nationally and 1st in the B10, they follow their usual formula of a massive front line, multiple TEs, sometimes a fullback and always, a talented running back.
In their last game against Nebraska, they were able to run for 353 yards and while Taylor got the bulk of the carries and yards, Wisconsin ran their backups nearly as much.
Drilling down a little bit into Wisconsin’s ranking and we find that the teams they have faced have had varied success against the run through the first part of the season. Northwestern is ranked #50; Nebraska 61st; BYU 77th; Florida Atlantic 112th, and; Utah State 100th.
Purdue is currently ranked 66th nationally in rush defense. Arguably, some of that number can be chalked up to the Offense’s lack of 2nd half production against Michigan when Purdue got worn down and also had Bentley and Thineman out the better part of the half for targeting calls and in addition, Minnesota’s running game in the 1st half with those two players out. Minnesota ran for 148 yards in that half compared to just 79 yards in the 2nd half.
In general, Purdue’s defense has been light years better defending the run against running backs (QB’s running have been a different story). I’d expect Coach Holt to have another good game plan devised to continue that trend so I wouldn’t look for Wisconsin’s Taylor to set another career best.
While it hurts to have Larkin a bit dinged up at DE, moving Robinson back out there, especially considering the opponent, may not be the worst thing that could happen. You get a bigger, stronger DE to help hold the edge against Wisconsin’s running game and while you may lose a bit rushing the QB, that is probably the least of Purdue’s concerns this week.
In order to win this game, it’s not brain surgery. Purdue needs to keep their offense on the field as much as possible and move the chains against Wisconsin’s defense, limit Wisconsin’s running game as best as possible and win the turnover battle (preferably not turning the ball over at all). Nebraska played toe to toe with Wisconsin for the better part of three quarters. Purdue needs to do so for all four.
This should be Purdue’s best opportunity to win against Wisconsin in over a decade. As mentioned earlier, Purdue can control their own destiny with a win which would put them far and away ahead of anyone’s reasonably expectations for this season.
Saturday can’t get here soon enough. Let’s play football!
