Taking a look at the size and experience of the Virginia Tech lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents.
- Purdue’s defense will face a Virginia Tech O-line which, after ISU’s, will be more typical of units that Purdue will face this year coming in at 298.6 lbs. This is about 5 lbs per man smaller than the average B10 line and about 6 lbs smaller than Purdue’s average opponent this season. They also come in as one of the lesser experienced groups at 2.8 years of experience. Again, this is below average compared to a B10 line. Two full year and two part time starters return from last year. One of the full year starters has switched from RT to LT this season. The VaTech line will have 52 collective starts as a unit.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Panfil, Replogle, Watson, Miles) averages about 267.8 lbs, down about 7lbs from the 275 lbs average from last year. They will be outweighed by the VaTech line by about 30.8 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.00 years, identical to last year’s line when two Seniors started at DE. The size of this group will be below average for a B10 team and also slightly below average in terms of experience. As a unit they are very untested as going into Saturday they have 27 collective starts. When Henley is playing the size and experience level will increase to the point where they would be just slightly below average for a B10 team. If Robinson starts in place of Miles, the numbers will change to 271.3 lbs, the experience stays the same and the number of starts would drop to 25.
- This season Purdue is listing the Linebackers as a normal three LB set. Purdue’s LBs (Ezechukwu, Bentley, Herman) come in at 245.3 lbs but only 2.33 years of experience. That’s up over 3.0 lbs from last year and the collective experience is the same as the start of last year when Sean Robinson started in the middle. Though young, they have a collective 33 starts between them. Size wise, this group is one of the largest in the B10 but experience wise, they fall on the other side of the ledger and are tied for the youngest in the B10 (Nebraska, Minnesota).
- Purdue’s O-line (Hedelin, King, Kugler, Roos, Cermin) will average 302.0 lbs per man, down by 2.8 lbs from last year’s 304.8 lbs. This places them slightly below average in the B10. They average 3.40 years of experience which is (finally) slightly above average for the B10 where in prior years they have been one of the youngest lines in the B10. Collectively, this group has 90 starts among them. Kugler has the lion’s share (32) of those starts by himself. The start totals also don’t include Hedelin’s while he was a JUCO. If Patterson starts in place of Henley again this week, the figures will adjust to 311.4 lbs per man and 2.8 years of experience. Those numbers would place this unit within a couple of cheeseburgers from the largest in the B10 (Wisconsin 312.3, MSU 311.8) but would drop them below average in terms of experience.
- At 255.0lbs, Virginia Tech’s D-line will be one of the smaller D-Lines Purdue is scheduled to face this year. They in essence use a 3-4 scheme but identify their 4th LB as a Defensive End. They will be well above average in terms of experience however with a 3.75 year average. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 47.0lbs per man. They return four starters from last year and have a collective 88 starts between them. In other words, they are a very experienced and unconventional group. One of the DEs had to leave the field on Saturday (ironically hurt on the same play as their MLB) but no word on him not being available against Purdue.
- The VaTech LBs comes in also on the smaller side at 225.0 lbs. and are well below average for teams Purdue will face this year. They do have decent experience with an average of 3.00 years at the position which puts them slightly above average compared to a B10 team and to any of Purdue’s opponents. Together they have 19 starts with one starters returning from last season. So, while they have good experience in terms of years in the program, they have not accumulated that many starts. Also note that VaTech opens up in a Nickel formation quite a bit which pulls one of those LBs off of the field. Reports on Monday indicated that VaTech’s starting MLB, Andrew Motuapuaka, is out for the Purdue game and could be replaced with a true freshman. The above figures account for that expected replacement. If they don’t go with the frosh, their other options are to move a backup OLB or two walk-ons. (It’s unfortunate their MLB is out as I wanted to listen to the ESPN announcers try to pronounce his name. If they had trouble with Replogle, what would they do with Motuapuaka)
In a mini-version of the B10/ACC challenge for football going on this week (Northwestern-Duke, Illinois-UNC, Nebraska-Miami, Iowa-Pitt), Purdue gets their own formidable ACC opponent in the friendly confines of Ross-Ade stadium. While Purdue may have put all of their eggs in one basket for the Marshall game, from what I can tell, they’ve been preparing for this game from the onset of the season, at least offensively. Now that both teams played last Saturday, they each will have a full week to prepare for this game. VaTech of course will be playing their first game of the season on the road.
Sagarin is predicting a 11.42 point Purdue loss
Vegas opened up with Purdue a 5.5 point underdog
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 17-27 Purdue loss
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 11.7 point Purdue loss
MasseyRatings predicts a 17-24 Purdue loss
CollegeFootballNews and ESPN predictions won’t come out until late this week
Purdue got back on the winning side of the ledger and, regardless of the opponent; a win is a win and can only help to boost the confidence of the team who most assuredly was shaken following the Marshall game. VaTech comes to town, wounded but still very dangerous. While this isn’t the same VaTech team that was in the national championship conversation not that long ago, they are still a talented team, a team that is favored and a team that probably would be the “best” win by Purdue since Hazell took over the program in 2013.
In some ways, playing Indiana State last week might have been a blessing in that, now with the injury to VaTech’s QB, they both give similar looks and concepts on both sides of the ball. While the talent level will be ratcheted up, having a QB more apt to run than to throw and facing a defense who’s main goal is to shoot gaps and get pressure on the QB was probably good practice for the VaTech team coming in this week.
Against ISU, Purdue again showed they could throw the long ball. Appleby’s three 50+ yard TD passes put him in some rarified company. The fact that he did that all in the 1st half was even more remarkable. His stat line of 12-18, 3 TDs and 234 yards worked out to a QB rating of 230.86 and might have been one of the best half’s of football since Orton’s 1st half surgical dissection of Ball State in 2004.
While you can’t completely overlook the 4 interceptions at Marshall (On 3 of which Appleby was hit while throwing), Appleby for the most part has been accurate and making the plays that are there to be made. As opposed to a number of throws into tight coverage against Marshall, I counted just one against ISU. Hopefully, that is a sign of maturation and more game experience. Needless to say, it will be imperative that he continues his strong play this season and not try and force the ball where it doesn’t belong.
Going hand in hand with the passing game, Purdue has also been running the ball well (most of the time). The play which stands out from Saturday in which they didn’t run well was the 4th and 2 play where Knox was stood up for a loss and failed to convert. Watching that play again, it appeared that something just wasn’t right with the execution, or ISU simply called a perfect defensive stunt. As it was, all of the O-line blocked to the right while Knox ran to the left, right into two unblocked ISU defenders. Again, something tells me that wasn’t exactly how the play was drawn up.
That miscue aside, Knox again showed good balance and power in his runs. He unfortunately also showed the ability to be loose with the ball. The one positive is that his two fumbles (one on special teams) didn’t affect the outcome of the game and became teaching moments. The fact that Purdue has a very capable back in Jones right behind (or ahead of) Knox should keep Knox focused on what he needs to do to stay on the field. Based on what we read of his dedication and competitive nature in the offseason, I’ll be surprised if he fumbles again this season.
One aspect of playing running back where both Knox and Jones will have to improve, and improve quickly, is picking up the blitz. ISU was able to bring a cornerback on a blitz and sack Appleby. I can see a RB getting overwhelmed by a defensive lineman or a linebacker, but they should be able to hold their own against a DB. That fact will not be lost on VaTech’s defense.
One trend from the Marshall game that the defense was able to continue was turning the other team over. In addition to the three turnovers they garnered against Marshall, they were able to turn ISU over three times as well (2 Interceptions, 1 fumble recovery). As mentioned last week, Purdue’s defense only got 3+ turnovers once last season (Nebraska) and once in 2012 (Illinois) so it doesn’t happen very often. The fact that they’ve gone back to back games with 3+ is a big positive. If they can keep this up in weeks to come, it should bode well for the Boilers.
One more note on Turnovers Gained, I’ve checked back as far as 2008 and Purdue hasn’t had back to back games when they’ve turned their opponent over 3+ times. In 2008, they came close a couple of times however. They got Oregon for 4 turnovers followed by CMU with 2 turnovers and later in the season got Michigan State for 4 turnovers followed by Iowa with 2 turnovers and then IU with 3 turnovers.
Against VaTech, they’ll face a team with a QB more accustomed to running with the ball than he is throwing. In their game against Furman the VaTech QB, Motley, started off fairly slow and many of his early passes were delivered late and off target. Against a more talented opponent a few of them would have likely resulted in interceptions. To his credit, he did come out in the 3rd quarter and complete 9 of his 10 passes so between half time adjustments and him becoming more comfortable in his passing, he did show he’s capable of operating the VaTech offense in a similar fashion to how it was originally designed before Brewer hurt his shoulder. VaTech’s backup, a true frosh, also saw action and while he should eventually develop into a good QB, he’s not close yet.
Saturday was Motely’s first start so you’d expect there would be some jitters when he took the field. This Saturday will present a bit more difficult of a challenge in that he’ll be starting for the first time on the road. Hopefully, the Boilermaker crowd will be large enough and vocal enough to keep him uncomfortable.
Against Furman, he was only able to lead VaTech to a single score in the 1st half (a pick six accounted for the other Hokie score) but they exploded in the 3rd quarter to take command of the ball game.
Because of Motley’s running ability, the Purdue defense will need to be disciplined in defending the option and stay in their rush lanes and not allow him to step up and scramble for big yards should pass plays break down. Normally, I would expect VaTech to use their QB often in running situations but seeing as they’ve already lost their starter, they may limit Motley’s running plays to reduce the risk of him getting injured. Still, it’s a quandary, as VaTech’s offense isn’t nearly as effective without Motley running the ball.
VaTech has liked to bring in a change of pace QB and run a Wildcat set. Prior to Motley taking over the starting role, he was the change of pace QB, now look for the 3rd stringer, Durkin (6-4, 222 R-Fr), to take over in that role. Also waiting in the wings is true frosh Dwayne Lawson, a 6'6" wunderkind who was expected to redshirt this season. That redshirt went by the wayside last Saturday as he took over for Motley early when Motley lost his helmet and had to leave for a play. He entered the game late in mop up duty as well finishing 3 of 7 for 51 yards and matching that total on the ground as well. With his "shirt" burned, look for him to enter the game if Motley has difficulty.
If this were Old-Goldilocks and the Three QB’s from Purdue’s perspective, Marshall’s QB was too big, ISU’s QB was too small. VaTech’s QB might be just right. Not as big as Birdsong and not as elusive as Adam, Purdue might just have an easier time containing Motley.
VaTech doesn’t have a running back that is far and away their bell-cow, but has a stable of very good backs, not the least of which is Travon McMillian who’s actually had trouble getting snaps working out of the RB position. He reeled off a 63 yard run to open up the 2nd half against Furman while lined up as a slot back executing a jet sweep to near perfection. Their named starter is J.C. Coleman, a 5’6” 187lb Senior (and we though Knox was short).
You’ll also get a number of different looks from the Hokies as they’ll use both a fullback and a double tight end at times. Purdue needs to be prepared for just about everything except the wishbone.
To say Purdue’s offense is going to be tested on Saturday is an understatement. Last season, VaTech finished 21st nationally in Total Defense (Iowa by comparison finished 22nd) and returns about 7 starters from last season’s team. While undersized, they are quick to the ball and thrive on creating pressure at the point of attack, often employing the old Bear “46” defense putting 8 men in the box.
What Purdue must do is not get itself in 3rd and long situations as that’s when VaTech really lets loose with pressure, often resulting in sacks, hurried passes and/or interceptions. Also look for Purdue to adjust the gaps in their O-line (tighten them) and/or keep Knox/Jones in to block more often than sending them out into the pattern. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Purdue try and move the pocket via a roll out to get Appleby some easy throws.
Easier said than done, but Purdue may be well equipped to get the job done. With a size advantage along the line, they may be able to open enough of a hole to run between the tackles with their RBs. Another way to combat the 46 defense is to have the QB run the ball. So far, Appleby has shown good decision making when running the read-option and is big enough that he’ll actually outweigh the VaTech LB’s, one of the DE’s and the DB’s.
Another way to combat the pressure is to get the ball to the outside quickly via bubble screens, speed option and perhaps the jet sweep. Furman was actually able to gain considerable yardage against VaTech using a combination of those plays. The key is being able to sustain the drives. Furman invariably took penalties or losses to put them in throwing downs which snuffed out most of their drives. So far, Purdue’s offense has been relatively clean in pre-snap penalties, and penalties in general, so that will have to continue on Saturday. One note on Furman and their offensive line: unlike ISU and their massive O-line which averaged 330lbs per man, Furman’s O-line averaged just 280lbs per man. Yet, that undersized line was frequently able to open up running lanes for Furman.
I believe Purdue has also been getting ready for VaTech’s defense since the start of the season based on certain formations and/or pre-snap movements I’ve noticed Purdue has used so far in the first two games. I suspect this Saturday, they unleash some of those plays they have in store to at least keep VaTech honest.
If they can keep VaTech honest, stay in front of the chains and slow down any kind of rush/penetration, they should get some opportunities to go deep. VaTech’s CBs are both good and have good size. One’s a senior while the other’s a Sophomore so there is good experience there as well. Both Safeties however are relatively new and that could be VaTech’s weak point.
I’d like to see Purdue utilize Herdman more often as a primary receiver. He’s shown the ability to catch the passes which have been thrown to him so far (at least by my recollection) and would make a good “safety valve” especially this week when Purdue should expect pressure and have the need to make some quick, safe throws.
One area Purdue certainly needs to clean up is their Special Teams and more precisely, their kicking game. Both kickers are now Seniors but are having Freshman-like performances. Kickoffs out of bounds; shanked punts; and missed field goals from makeable distances all have hurt in some way or another. As both kickers have performed much better in the past, you have to think the issues could be simply mental and perhaps can be easily corrected. Purdue will need every point they can get and need to keep their opponents from getting the ball in good field position.
On the subject of Special Teams, Virginia Tech has long been known as a team which blocks a lot of kicks. In fact, they’ve blocked 134 kicks in Frank Beemer’s tenure (348 games). Of those 66 were punts, 40 were field goals and 28 were PATs. However, their current reputation may be built on results from a decade ago and not applicable to the current team. In the last 5 full years, they’ve blocked just 9 kicks. Purdue doesn’t keep stats on their blocked kicks (or at least publish those stats) but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar, if not greater, number of blocks over that same period of time. For that matter, Kawann Short had 8 by himself from 2009-2012.
It could be teams catching up to their schemes or it could just be the law of averages catching up to them but Virginia Tech simplyisn’t blocking the same number of kicks as they were accustomed to doing back in the mid-90’s to early 2000’s. (Hope I didn’t jinx Purdue) Bud Foster, the Defensive Coordinator has been reportedly responsible for Special Teams since 1993 so much of the credit needs to go to him, but conversely, the lack of blocks lately then needs to fall at his feet as well.
One other observation and this is about VaTech’s head coach, Frank Beamer. He had major throat surgery in late December and he’s visibly different in appearance this year. He appears to be extremely worn out and gaunt and you have to believe that between his health and the Hokies not performing on the field the way they have in the past has taken its toll on the coach.
While it may have no impact on this Saturday’s game, you might expect him to delegate more responsibilities to his assistant coaches and/or not put in as many hours for preparation as he might have in the past. If so, there may be a situation this season where VaTech loses a game they should have won, in part, due to that inability to go 110% like most coaches do during the season.
After watching VaTech against OSU and again against Furman, this still looks to be an average ACC team, perhaps now more so as they’ve had to go to their backup QB. I can’t help but equate this team to being very similar to Minnesota in terms of talent level and how they play. VaTech may want to bring a bit more pressure on defense but can be exploited by the right schemes. At the end of the day, probably more talented than Purdue top to bottom but, then again, the most talented team doesn’t always win.
Since Frank Beamer took over the VaTech program (1987), VaTech has only played 4 games further west of West Lafayette (Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Tulane). In those four, they are 2-2 and gave up an average of 27.25 points per game. Their best game was against TAMU in 2002 when they won 13-3. Their worst game was against Tulane in 1987 losing 57-38.
Last season, VaTech had a very up and down season and while there were some injuries which took their toll, they can’t explain scoring 3 points, in Overtime no less, to a Wake Forest team that finished 3-9 with their only other wins against Gardner-Webb and Army.
Purdue has to play a clean game and cannot lose the turnover battle but this is a game they should be capable of winning. One of these days, they’ll figure out how to close out a game and win. Hopefully it will be this week.
So far this season, Purdue has taken on an offensive identity of run between the tackles and take shots down field. While it might seem counter-intuitive to go right at VaTech, it might be the best option for Purdue, playing to their strengths and negating VaTech’s speed along the line. It’s possible that if Purdue can establish a strong running game that they’ll stay out of those long 3rd down plays where VaTech can bring their pressure.
Just remember, you can spell “I gin the vicar” from Virgina Tech. Don’t know exactly why that would be important but Saturday can’t get here soon enough!
- Purdue’s defense will face a Virginia Tech O-line which, after ISU’s, will be more typical of units that Purdue will face this year coming in at 298.6 lbs. This is about 5 lbs per man smaller than the average B10 line and about 6 lbs smaller than Purdue’s average opponent this season. They also come in as one of the lesser experienced groups at 2.8 years of experience. Again, this is below average compared to a B10 line. Two full year and two part time starters return from last year. One of the full year starters has switched from RT to LT this season. The VaTech line will have 52 collective starts as a unit.
- This year’s Purdue’s D-Line (Panfil, Replogle, Watson, Miles) averages about 267.8 lbs, down about 7lbs from the 275 lbs average from last year. They will be outweighed by the VaTech line by about 30.8 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.00 years, identical to last year’s line when two Seniors started at DE. The size of this group will be below average for a B10 team and also slightly below average in terms of experience. As a unit they are very untested as going into Saturday they have 27 collective starts. When Henley is playing the size and experience level will increase to the point where they would be just slightly below average for a B10 team. If Robinson starts in place of Miles, the numbers will change to 271.3 lbs, the experience stays the same and the number of starts would drop to 25.
- This season Purdue is listing the Linebackers as a normal three LB set. Purdue’s LBs (Ezechukwu, Bentley, Herman) come in at 245.3 lbs but only 2.33 years of experience. That’s up over 3.0 lbs from last year and the collective experience is the same as the start of last year when Sean Robinson started in the middle. Though young, they have a collective 33 starts between them. Size wise, this group is one of the largest in the B10 but experience wise, they fall on the other side of the ledger and are tied for the youngest in the B10 (Nebraska, Minnesota).
- Purdue’s O-line (Hedelin, King, Kugler, Roos, Cermin) will average 302.0 lbs per man, down by 2.8 lbs from last year’s 304.8 lbs. This places them slightly below average in the B10. They average 3.40 years of experience which is (finally) slightly above average for the B10 where in prior years they have been one of the youngest lines in the B10. Collectively, this group has 90 starts among them. Kugler has the lion’s share (32) of those starts by himself. The start totals also don’t include Hedelin’s while he was a JUCO. If Patterson starts in place of Henley again this week, the figures will adjust to 311.4 lbs per man and 2.8 years of experience. Those numbers would place this unit within a couple of cheeseburgers from the largest in the B10 (Wisconsin 312.3, MSU 311.8) but would drop them below average in terms of experience.
- At 255.0lbs, Virginia Tech’s D-line will be one of the smaller D-Lines Purdue is scheduled to face this year. They in essence use a 3-4 scheme but identify their 4th LB as a Defensive End. They will be well above average in terms of experience however with a 3.75 year average. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 47.0lbs per man. They return four starters from last year and have a collective 88 starts between them. In other words, they are a very experienced and unconventional group. One of the DEs had to leave the field on Saturday (ironically hurt on the same play as their MLB) but no word on him not being available against Purdue.
- The VaTech LBs comes in also on the smaller side at 225.0 lbs. and are well below average for teams Purdue will face this year. They do have decent experience with an average of 3.00 years at the position which puts them slightly above average compared to a B10 team and to any of Purdue’s opponents. Together they have 19 starts with one starters returning from last season. So, while they have good experience in terms of years in the program, they have not accumulated that many starts. Also note that VaTech opens up in a Nickel formation quite a bit which pulls one of those LBs off of the field. Reports on Monday indicated that VaTech’s starting MLB, Andrew Motuapuaka, is out for the Purdue game and could be replaced with a true freshman. The above figures account for that expected replacement. If they don’t go with the frosh, their other options are to move a backup OLB or two walk-ons. (It’s unfortunate their MLB is out as I wanted to listen to the ESPN announcers try to pronounce his name. If they had trouble with Replogle, what would they do with Motuapuaka)
In a mini-version of the B10/ACC challenge for football going on this week (Northwestern-Duke, Illinois-UNC, Nebraska-Miami, Iowa-Pitt), Purdue gets their own formidable ACC opponent in the friendly confines of Ross-Ade stadium. While Purdue may have put all of their eggs in one basket for the Marshall game, from what I can tell, they’ve been preparing for this game from the onset of the season, at least offensively. Now that both teams played last Saturday, they each will have a full week to prepare for this game. VaTech of course will be playing their first game of the season on the road.
Sagarin is predicting a 11.42 point Purdue loss
Vegas opened up with Purdue a 5.5 point underdog
Compughter Ratings.com predicts a 17-27 Purdue loss
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 11.7 point Purdue loss
MasseyRatings predicts a 17-24 Purdue loss
CollegeFootballNews and ESPN predictions won’t come out until late this week
Purdue got back on the winning side of the ledger and, regardless of the opponent; a win is a win and can only help to boost the confidence of the team who most assuredly was shaken following the Marshall game. VaTech comes to town, wounded but still very dangerous. While this isn’t the same VaTech team that was in the national championship conversation not that long ago, they are still a talented team, a team that is favored and a team that probably would be the “best” win by Purdue since Hazell took over the program in 2013.
In some ways, playing Indiana State last week might have been a blessing in that, now with the injury to VaTech’s QB, they both give similar looks and concepts on both sides of the ball. While the talent level will be ratcheted up, having a QB more apt to run than to throw and facing a defense who’s main goal is to shoot gaps and get pressure on the QB was probably good practice for the VaTech team coming in this week.
Against ISU, Purdue again showed they could throw the long ball. Appleby’s three 50+ yard TD passes put him in some rarified company. The fact that he did that all in the 1st half was even more remarkable. His stat line of 12-18, 3 TDs and 234 yards worked out to a QB rating of 230.86 and might have been one of the best half’s of football since Orton’s 1st half surgical dissection of Ball State in 2004.
While you can’t completely overlook the 4 interceptions at Marshall (On 3 of which Appleby was hit while throwing), Appleby for the most part has been accurate and making the plays that are there to be made. As opposed to a number of throws into tight coverage against Marshall, I counted just one against ISU. Hopefully, that is a sign of maturation and more game experience. Needless to say, it will be imperative that he continues his strong play this season and not try and force the ball where it doesn’t belong.
Going hand in hand with the passing game, Purdue has also been running the ball well (most of the time). The play which stands out from Saturday in which they didn’t run well was the 4th and 2 play where Knox was stood up for a loss and failed to convert. Watching that play again, it appeared that something just wasn’t right with the execution, or ISU simply called a perfect defensive stunt. As it was, all of the O-line blocked to the right while Knox ran to the left, right into two unblocked ISU defenders. Again, something tells me that wasn’t exactly how the play was drawn up.
That miscue aside, Knox again showed good balance and power in his runs. He unfortunately also showed the ability to be loose with the ball. The one positive is that his two fumbles (one on special teams) didn’t affect the outcome of the game and became teaching moments. The fact that Purdue has a very capable back in Jones right behind (or ahead of) Knox should keep Knox focused on what he needs to do to stay on the field. Based on what we read of his dedication and competitive nature in the offseason, I’ll be surprised if he fumbles again this season.
One aspect of playing running back where both Knox and Jones will have to improve, and improve quickly, is picking up the blitz. ISU was able to bring a cornerback on a blitz and sack Appleby. I can see a RB getting overwhelmed by a defensive lineman or a linebacker, but they should be able to hold their own against a DB. That fact will not be lost on VaTech’s defense.
One trend from the Marshall game that the defense was able to continue was turning the other team over. In addition to the three turnovers they garnered against Marshall, they were able to turn ISU over three times as well (2 Interceptions, 1 fumble recovery). As mentioned last week, Purdue’s defense only got 3+ turnovers once last season (Nebraska) and once in 2012 (Illinois) so it doesn’t happen very often. The fact that they’ve gone back to back games with 3+ is a big positive. If they can keep this up in weeks to come, it should bode well for the Boilers.
One more note on Turnovers Gained, I’ve checked back as far as 2008 and Purdue hasn’t had back to back games when they’ve turned their opponent over 3+ times. In 2008, they came close a couple of times however. They got Oregon for 4 turnovers followed by CMU with 2 turnovers and later in the season got Michigan State for 4 turnovers followed by Iowa with 2 turnovers and then IU with 3 turnovers.
Against VaTech, they’ll face a team with a QB more accustomed to running with the ball than he is throwing. In their game against Furman the VaTech QB, Motley, started off fairly slow and many of his early passes were delivered late and off target. Against a more talented opponent a few of them would have likely resulted in interceptions. To his credit, he did come out in the 3rd quarter and complete 9 of his 10 passes so between half time adjustments and him becoming more comfortable in his passing, he did show he’s capable of operating the VaTech offense in a similar fashion to how it was originally designed before Brewer hurt his shoulder. VaTech’s backup, a true frosh, also saw action and while he should eventually develop into a good QB, he’s not close yet.
Saturday was Motely’s first start so you’d expect there would be some jitters when he took the field. This Saturday will present a bit more difficult of a challenge in that he’ll be starting for the first time on the road. Hopefully, the Boilermaker crowd will be large enough and vocal enough to keep him uncomfortable.
Against Furman, he was only able to lead VaTech to a single score in the 1st half (a pick six accounted for the other Hokie score) but they exploded in the 3rd quarter to take command of the ball game.
Because of Motley’s running ability, the Purdue defense will need to be disciplined in defending the option and stay in their rush lanes and not allow him to step up and scramble for big yards should pass plays break down. Normally, I would expect VaTech to use their QB often in running situations but seeing as they’ve already lost their starter, they may limit Motley’s running plays to reduce the risk of him getting injured. Still, it’s a quandary, as VaTech’s offense isn’t nearly as effective without Motley running the ball.
VaTech has liked to bring in a change of pace QB and run a Wildcat set. Prior to Motley taking over the starting role, he was the change of pace QB, now look for the 3rd stringer, Durkin (6-4, 222 R-Fr), to take over in that role. Also waiting in the wings is true frosh Dwayne Lawson, a 6'6" wunderkind who was expected to redshirt this season. That redshirt went by the wayside last Saturday as he took over for Motley early when Motley lost his helmet and had to leave for a play. He entered the game late in mop up duty as well finishing 3 of 7 for 51 yards and matching that total on the ground as well. With his "shirt" burned, look for him to enter the game if Motley has difficulty.
If this were Old-Goldilocks and the Three QB’s from Purdue’s perspective, Marshall’s QB was too big, ISU’s QB was too small. VaTech’s QB might be just right. Not as big as Birdsong and not as elusive as Adam, Purdue might just have an easier time containing Motley.
VaTech doesn’t have a running back that is far and away their bell-cow, but has a stable of very good backs, not the least of which is Travon McMillian who’s actually had trouble getting snaps working out of the RB position. He reeled off a 63 yard run to open up the 2nd half against Furman while lined up as a slot back executing a jet sweep to near perfection. Their named starter is J.C. Coleman, a 5’6” 187lb Senior (and we though Knox was short).
You’ll also get a number of different looks from the Hokies as they’ll use both a fullback and a double tight end at times. Purdue needs to be prepared for just about everything except the wishbone.
To say Purdue’s offense is going to be tested on Saturday is an understatement. Last season, VaTech finished 21st nationally in Total Defense (Iowa by comparison finished 22nd) and returns about 7 starters from last season’s team. While undersized, they are quick to the ball and thrive on creating pressure at the point of attack, often employing the old Bear “46” defense putting 8 men in the box.
What Purdue must do is not get itself in 3rd and long situations as that’s when VaTech really lets loose with pressure, often resulting in sacks, hurried passes and/or interceptions. Also look for Purdue to adjust the gaps in their O-line (tighten them) and/or keep Knox/Jones in to block more often than sending them out into the pattern. It also wouldn’t surprise me to see Purdue try and move the pocket via a roll out to get Appleby some easy throws.
Easier said than done, but Purdue may be well equipped to get the job done. With a size advantage along the line, they may be able to open enough of a hole to run between the tackles with their RBs. Another way to combat the 46 defense is to have the QB run the ball. So far, Appleby has shown good decision making when running the read-option and is big enough that he’ll actually outweigh the VaTech LB’s, one of the DE’s and the DB’s.
Another way to combat the pressure is to get the ball to the outside quickly via bubble screens, speed option and perhaps the jet sweep. Furman was actually able to gain considerable yardage against VaTech using a combination of those plays. The key is being able to sustain the drives. Furman invariably took penalties or losses to put them in throwing downs which snuffed out most of their drives. So far, Purdue’s offense has been relatively clean in pre-snap penalties, and penalties in general, so that will have to continue on Saturday. One note on Furman and their offensive line: unlike ISU and their massive O-line which averaged 330lbs per man, Furman’s O-line averaged just 280lbs per man. Yet, that undersized line was frequently able to open up running lanes for Furman.
I believe Purdue has also been getting ready for VaTech’s defense since the start of the season based on certain formations and/or pre-snap movements I’ve noticed Purdue has used so far in the first two games. I suspect this Saturday, they unleash some of those plays they have in store to at least keep VaTech honest.
If they can keep VaTech honest, stay in front of the chains and slow down any kind of rush/penetration, they should get some opportunities to go deep. VaTech’s CBs are both good and have good size. One’s a senior while the other’s a Sophomore so there is good experience there as well. Both Safeties however are relatively new and that could be VaTech’s weak point.
I’d like to see Purdue utilize Herdman more often as a primary receiver. He’s shown the ability to catch the passes which have been thrown to him so far (at least by my recollection) and would make a good “safety valve” especially this week when Purdue should expect pressure and have the need to make some quick, safe throws.
One area Purdue certainly needs to clean up is their Special Teams and more precisely, their kicking game. Both kickers are now Seniors but are having Freshman-like performances. Kickoffs out of bounds; shanked punts; and missed field goals from makeable distances all have hurt in some way or another. As both kickers have performed much better in the past, you have to think the issues could be simply mental and perhaps can be easily corrected. Purdue will need every point they can get and need to keep their opponents from getting the ball in good field position.
On the subject of Special Teams, Virginia Tech has long been known as a team which blocks a lot of kicks. In fact, they’ve blocked 134 kicks in Frank Beemer’s tenure (348 games). Of those 66 were punts, 40 were field goals and 28 were PATs. However, their current reputation may be built on results from a decade ago and not applicable to the current team. In the last 5 full years, they’ve blocked just 9 kicks. Purdue doesn’t keep stats on their blocked kicks (or at least publish those stats) but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a similar, if not greater, number of blocks over that same period of time. For that matter, Kawann Short had 8 by himself from 2009-2012.
It could be teams catching up to their schemes or it could just be the law of averages catching up to them but Virginia Tech simplyisn’t blocking the same number of kicks as they were accustomed to doing back in the mid-90’s to early 2000’s. (Hope I didn’t jinx Purdue) Bud Foster, the Defensive Coordinator has been reportedly responsible for Special Teams since 1993 so much of the credit needs to go to him, but conversely, the lack of blocks lately then needs to fall at his feet as well.
One other observation and this is about VaTech’s head coach, Frank Beamer. He had major throat surgery in late December and he’s visibly different in appearance this year. He appears to be extremely worn out and gaunt and you have to believe that between his health and the Hokies not performing on the field the way they have in the past has taken its toll on the coach.
While it may have no impact on this Saturday’s game, you might expect him to delegate more responsibilities to his assistant coaches and/or not put in as many hours for preparation as he might have in the past. If so, there may be a situation this season where VaTech loses a game they should have won, in part, due to that inability to go 110% like most coaches do during the season.
After watching VaTech against OSU and again against Furman, this still looks to be an average ACC team, perhaps now more so as they’ve had to go to their backup QB. I can’t help but equate this team to being very similar to Minnesota in terms of talent level and how they play. VaTech may want to bring a bit more pressure on defense but can be exploited by the right schemes. At the end of the day, probably more talented than Purdue top to bottom but, then again, the most talented team doesn’t always win.
Since Frank Beamer took over the VaTech program (1987), VaTech has only played 4 games further west of West Lafayette (Nebraska, Oklahoma, Texas A&M and Tulane). In those four, they are 2-2 and gave up an average of 27.25 points per game. Their best game was against TAMU in 2002 when they won 13-3. Their worst game was against Tulane in 1987 losing 57-38.
Last season, VaTech had a very up and down season and while there were some injuries which took their toll, they can’t explain scoring 3 points, in Overtime no less, to a Wake Forest team that finished 3-9 with their only other wins against Gardner-Webb and Army.
Purdue has to play a clean game and cannot lose the turnover battle but this is a game they should be capable of winning. One of these days, they’ll figure out how to close out a game and win. Hopefully it will be this week.
So far this season, Purdue has taken on an offensive identity of run between the tackles and take shots down field. While it might seem counter-intuitive to go right at VaTech, it might be the best option for Purdue, playing to their strengths and negating VaTech’s speed along the line. It’s possible that if Purdue can establish a strong running game that they’ll stay out of those long 3rd down plays where VaTech can bring their pressure.
Just remember, you can spell “I gin the vicar” from Virgina Tech. Don’t know exactly why that would be important but Saturday can’t get here soon enough!
