Sorry this was late. Have been waiting for my NIL deal to get finalized before posting. (BTW, Tennessee pressed hard with a strong offer)
First up for the 2022 season is the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Penn State Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: Neither team have released a 2-deep for this week’s game so I’m making some educated guesses about personnel.) (Note #2 – As not every team has released a 2-deep, I have not done the normal comparisons to other B10 teams this week. Following everyone’s first game, that information should be available and comparisons will return at that time)
- Big but not huge. The Penn State O-line will likely fall towards the top (but not at the top) of the league, size-wise coming in at 317.0 lbs. They only return 2 starters from last season and while very highly rated, they are still on the young size with an average of 2.6 years of experience. Collectively, they have only 36 career starts with the right tackle accounting for 22 of those (their center has an additional 13). For comparison, they are roughly the size of last year’s Michigan State line.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Sullivan, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 285.0 lbs, up about 2.5lbs from last year’s. They will be outweighed by the Penn State line by about 32.0 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.5 years, up a full year from last year’s line. As a unit they have 54 collective starts with Sullivan the only one with single digit starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Douglas, Brothers) come in at 230.0 lbs, down slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, the same as last season. As belies their experience, they have a collective 40 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Miller, Holstege, Hartwig, Mbow, Craig) will average 308.0 lbs per man, up by 2.0 lbs from last year’s 306.0 lbs. They average 2.8 years of experience, down slightly from last season’s 3.0 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 51, the same as the start of last season.
- Penn State plays a traditional 4 man front so no need to adjust player positions for comparison sake. At 290.0 lbs, they will be one of the larger groups Purdue will face this season. However, they are relatively young with a 2.50 year average. They have effectively three new starters this year. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 15.0 lbs per man. As mentioned, they’re largely all new starters so they’ll have just 26 starts between them (one DT, Mustipher, has 16 of those but is coming off an season ending injury from last year).
- The Penn State LBs will likely be one of the smaller groups in the league at 224.33 lbs. This is a big departure from last season when that group averaged 237.33 lbs. They are on the young size with 2.67 years at the position and very inexperienced as the collective starts tally just 14. (I believe that’s the lowest number I’ve ever seen while doing TOTT).
Vegas predicts Penn State by 3.5 points (Opened up as PSU by 3.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 26-24 PSU win
Sagarin predicts a 6.12 point PSU win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 7.65 point Purdue win.
Compughter Ratings predicts a 25-23 PSU win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................PSU
QB O’Connell NR...........Clifford 4*
RB Dorue 3*...................Keyvone Lee 4*
WR Thompson 2*...........Parker Washington 4*
WR Jones 2* (IA).............Lambert-Smith 4*
WR Sheffield 3*.............. Mitchell Tinsley 2* (WKU)
TE Durham 3*.................Strange 4*
LT Miller 3*.................…..Fashanu 4*
LG Holstege 2*................Tengwall 4*
C Hartwig 4*.....................Scruggs 4*
RG Mbow 3*.................... Wormley 4*
RT Craig 3*......................Caedan Wallace 4*
DE Sullivan 3*..................Chop Robinson 4* (MD)
DT Johnson 3*………..….Mustipher 4*
DT Dean 3*…...................Dvon Ellies 3*
DE/LB Jenkins..................Tarburton 4*
LB Brothers 3*....……...... Curtis Jacobs 4*
LB Douglas 3* ……>>……Tyler Elsdon 3*
LB Graham 3*...…………..Sutherland 4*
CB Trice 3*.........……........Joey Porter 3*
CB Brown 3*......................Kalen King 4*
FS Allen 3*......…….….......Ji’Ayir Brown 3*
SS Jefferson NR...........…. Keaton Ellis 4*
Opening games are always a bit of a crapshoot as we saw last Saturday with the Nebraska-Northwestern game. You never know how each team will come out of camp and be ready to perform.
In the off season, Purdue had a good dose of coaching turnover and was active in the transfer portal however only a couple of those players are expected to start on Thursday. PSU however also had changes in the coaching staff, bringing in a new DC and while they too only have a couple transfers expected to start, there are a number of other players who were hurt all or part of last year which begs the question as to how cohesive and coordinated will the respective units perform with a number of new faces?
From a talent standpoint, the PSU lineup (as illustrated above) is chock full of 4* players at every position. Backups are highly rated as well. If the new coaches on the defensive side of the ball can get that talent to play together, it could make life difficult for Purdue.
PSU’s new DC, Manny Diaz, likes an aggressive, blitzing defense (think Don Brown’s Michigan teams) so expect pressure to come often and from a variety of locations and in a variety of schemes to keep Purdue off balance.
Given PSU’s relative size and lack of starting experience in the front seven, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Purdue try and run the ball more early than you might expect and also work the short passing game (RBs, TEs) to a) get the ball out of O’Connell’s hand quicker and b) force the LBs to cover a lot of ground.
Eventually, you’ll expect PSU to tighten up their coverage so it will be incumbent for Purdue to recognize tighter coverage and then try and hit on the long ball.
Easier said than done.
Offensively, PSU has had difficulty running the ball last season, and that’s with a mobile QB in Clifford. In fact, the trend has been downward for several years with PSU having the 36th best rush offense in 2019, dropping to 55th in 2020 and then falling all the way to 118th last season (next to last in the B10. Purdue was last).
Reportedly, the PSU running back room has a couple of talented backs this year which has the Nittany Lion faithful optimistic, however the question remains about the O-Line creating holes in which to run. Keeping PSU from racking up yards on the ground could be key. Under Franklin, PSU is 28-5 when rushing for 200+ yards.
One other thought on the freshman phenom at running back: Like all freshmen RBs, it’s not the running that typically is the issue, it’s the other tasks like blitz pickup and route running which limit their play. Will have to see how PSU rotates their backs.
Last season if you’ll recall, PSU started out 5-0 with wins at Wisconsin and at home against Auburn before facing off against an undefeated (at the time) Iowa team. PSU led for much of the game before Clifford was sidelined with an injury and his backup (Roberson) was ineffective allowing Iowa to come back for the win.
Needless to say, PSU needs to keep Clifford in the game to be competitive so it will be interesting to see how often they allow Clifford to run to try and keep him healthy. As it is, Clifford’s run production tailed off last season when he only averaged 1.6 yards per carry as opposed to his Sophomore and Junior years when he averaged 3.5 and 3.4 yards per carry respectively.
Granted, the PSU O-Line did allow 2.6 sacks per game last season (94th nationally) which, believe it or not, was an “improvement” from 2020 when they allowed 3.11 and were ranked 109th nationally (playing all B10 schools likely skewed that number) but even in 2019, they still allowed 2.46 per game and were ranked 98th (By comparison, Purdue allowed 2.23 (64th) in 2021, 2.0 (48th) in 2020 and 2.33 (86th) in 2019.)
Purdue’s offense lost, arguably their two top receivers in Bell and Wright from last season. If there was one group where there’s depth, it’s at the WR position. Although there might not be the talent of those two, their replacements certainly seem capable as third receiver Thompson stepped up in the bowl game for 200+ yards and Sheffield returns for another season at the slot receiver position.
New faces are likely going to have an impact here as Purdue “raided” the Iowa WR room to get Indy native Tyrone Tracy (Thompson’s former youth teammate) and Charlie Jones (AOC’s former youth teammate) to go along with returning players in Rice and Yaseen, both having last year’s seasons cut short due to injury and speedster Burks.
The tandem of Tracy and Jones combined last year (at Iowa) for 36 receptions for 429 yards and 4 TDs. To put that in perspective, in last year’s bowl game, O’Connell passed for 534 yards and 5 TDs. That single stat alone should explain their reasons for transfer (and most Iowa fans know it).
Speaking of Jones, in addition to being a key player at wideout, his true value may come from the returner position. The reigning All-Big 10 Return Specialist of the Year he finished 2nd in the nation in kick return yards (920), 13th nationally in kickoff return TDs (1), 25th in kickoff return average (25.4) and 27th in Punt Return Average (7.7).
Had those numbers come in a Black and Old Gold uniform (as opposed to Black and Yellow), he would have had the 2nd best season ever in KO yards, 10th best season ever in KO Return Average and improved the Punt Return Average by over a yard and half from last season.
Special Teams could well make the difference in a good season and a special season. Purdue should have the tools to do the latter.
Both teams do feature new Special Team coordinators but return their kickers. Both teams lose their leading punt returner from last season (as above, Purdue has a good replacement). Top kick returners return for both teams as well.
As with any game, miscues are often the fine line between wins and losses. Penalties and turnovers can flip momentum in a heartbeat and teams can suffer greatly in their first game before they settle into a groove. Purdue has been good about avoiding penalties finishing 10th nationally last season in Fewest Penalties Per Game (4.46). PSU wasn't bad but was ranked lower at 40th with 5.38 per game.
Turnover Margin was not as kind to the Boilers last year as they finished -0.23 per game, which ranked them 83rd nationally. Penn State meanwhile finished ranked 31st with a +0.46 margin. Obviously, with a number of new skill players on both sides of the ball, this will be something to watch.
At Purdue, Coach Brohm’s teams have not had the best record in season openers. On the other hand, they’ve also played challenging games every year as opposed to opening up with Duquesne (looking at you, FSU). As noted, that trend has improved the last two years but PSU is not OSU (as in Oregon State), so it will be a big opportunity, and also a big challenge.
Weather looks to be perfect for football with the temperature expected to be in the low-mid 70s at kickoff and no rain clouds in sight. It’s a night game and a “Black Out” game. And, by all accounts, it will be close to a sold out Ross-Ade. The 2018 season started in a similar fashion with that early season, night kickoff, conference game coming against Northwestern. It’s my hope that the similarities end there and the outcome is different this time. (Although, if Purdue has a player who can duplicate what Rondale did in his inaugural contest, I’m all for it)
As shown above, the computer models are all over the board going from the slimmest of slim losses to a win by a TD. Purdue has won their opening game, the last two years. They’ve also won their opening conference game the past two years. We’ll see if they can keep those streaks going.
Let’s play football!
First up for the 2022 season is the Penn State Nittany Lions.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Penn State Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: Neither team have released a 2-deep for this week’s game so I’m making some educated guesses about personnel.) (Note #2 – As not every team has released a 2-deep, I have not done the normal comparisons to other B10 teams this week. Following everyone’s first game, that information should be available and comparisons will return at that time)
- Big but not huge. The Penn State O-line will likely fall towards the top (but not at the top) of the league, size-wise coming in at 317.0 lbs. They only return 2 starters from last season and while very highly rated, they are still on the young size with an average of 2.6 years of experience. Collectively, they have only 36 career starts with the right tackle accounting for 22 of those (their center has an additional 13). For comparison, they are roughly the size of last year’s Michigan State line.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Sullivan, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 285.0 lbs, up about 2.5lbs from last year’s. They will be outweighed by the Penn State line by about 32.0 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 3.5 years, up a full year from last year’s line. As a unit they have 54 collective starts with Sullivan the only one with single digit starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Douglas, Brothers) come in at 230.0 lbs, down slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, the same as last season. As belies their experience, they have a collective 40 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Miller, Holstege, Hartwig, Mbow, Craig) will average 308.0 lbs per man, up by 2.0 lbs from last year’s 306.0 lbs. They average 2.8 years of experience, down slightly from last season’s 3.0 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 51, the same as the start of last season.
- Penn State plays a traditional 4 man front so no need to adjust player positions for comparison sake. At 290.0 lbs, they will be one of the larger groups Purdue will face this season. However, they are relatively young with a 2.50 year average. They have effectively three new starters this year. They’ll be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by 15.0 lbs per man. As mentioned, they’re largely all new starters so they’ll have just 26 starts between them (one DT, Mustipher, has 16 of those but is coming off an season ending injury from last year).
- The Penn State LBs will likely be one of the smaller groups in the league at 224.33 lbs. This is a big departure from last season when that group averaged 237.33 lbs. They are on the young size with 2.67 years at the position and very inexperienced as the collective starts tally just 14. (I believe that’s the lowest number I’ve ever seen while doing TOTT).
Vegas predicts Penn State by 3.5 points (Opened up as PSU by 3.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 26-24 PSU win
Sagarin predicts a 6.12 point PSU win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 7.65 point Purdue win.
Compughter Ratings predicts a 25-23 PSU win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................PSU
QB O’Connell NR...........Clifford 4*
RB Dorue 3*...................Keyvone Lee 4*
WR Thompson 2*...........Parker Washington 4*
WR Jones 2* (IA).............Lambert-Smith 4*
WR Sheffield 3*.............. Mitchell Tinsley 2* (WKU)
TE Durham 3*.................Strange 4*
LT Miller 3*.................…..Fashanu 4*
LG Holstege 2*................Tengwall 4*
C Hartwig 4*.....................Scruggs 4*
RG Mbow 3*.................... Wormley 4*
RT Craig 3*......................Caedan Wallace 4*
DE Sullivan 3*..................Chop Robinson 4* (MD)
DT Johnson 3*………..….Mustipher 4*
DT Dean 3*…...................Dvon Ellies 3*
DE/LB Jenkins..................Tarburton 4*
LB Brothers 3*....……...... Curtis Jacobs 4*
LB Douglas 3* ……>>……Tyler Elsdon 3*
LB Graham 3*...…………..Sutherland 4*
CB Trice 3*.........……........Joey Porter 3*
CB Brown 3*......................Kalen King 4*
FS Allen 3*......…….….......Ji’Ayir Brown 3*
SS Jefferson NR...........…. Keaton Ellis 4*
Opening games are always a bit of a crapshoot as we saw last Saturday with the Nebraska-Northwestern game. You never know how each team will come out of camp and be ready to perform.
In the off season, Purdue had a good dose of coaching turnover and was active in the transfer portal however only a couple of those players are expected to start on Thursday. PSU however also had changes in the coaching staff, bringing in a new DC and while they too only have a couple transfers expected to start, there are a number of other players who were hurt all or part of last year which begs the question as to how cohesive and coordinated will the respective units perform with a number of new faces?
From a talent standpoint, the PSU lineup (as illustrated above) is chock full of 4* players at every position. Backups are highly rated as well. If the new coaches on the defensive side of the ball can get that talent to play together, it could make life difficult for Purdue.
PSU’s new DC, Manny Diaz, likes an aggressive, blitzing defense (think Don Brown’s Michigan teams) so expect pressure to come often and from a variety of locations and in a variety of schemes to keep Purdue off balance.
Given PSU’s relative size and lack of starting experience in the front seven, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Purdue try and run the ball more early than you might expect and also work the short passing game (RBs, TEs) to a) get the ball out of O’Connell’s hand quicker and b) force the LBs to cover a lot of ground.
Eventually, you’ll expect PSU to tighten up their coverage so it will be incumbent for Purdue to recognize tighter coverage and then try and hit on the long ball.
Easier said than done.
Offensively, PSU has had difficulty running the ball last season, and that’s with a mobile QB in Clifford. In fact, the trend has been downward for several years with PSU having the 36th best rush offense in 2019, dropping to 55th in 2020 and then falling all the way to 118th last season (next to last in the B10. Purdue was last).
Reportedly, the PSU running back room has a couple of talented backs this year which has the Nittany Lion faithful optimistic, however the question remains about the O-Line creating holes in which to run. Keeping PSU from racking up yards on the ground could be key. Under Franklin, PSU is 28-5 when rushing for 200+ yards.
One other thought on the freshman phenom at running back: Like all freshmen RBs, it’s not the running that typically is the issue, it’s the other tasks like blitz pickup and route running which limit their play. Will have to see how PSU rotates their backs.
Last season if you’ll recall, PSU started out 5-0 with wins at Wisconsin and at home against Auburn before facing off against an undefeated (at the time) Iowa team. PSU led for much of the game before Clifford was sidelined with an injury and his backup (Roberson) was ineffective allowing Iowa to come back for the win.
Needless to say, PSU needs to keep Clifford in the game to be competitive so it will be interesting to see how often they allow Clifford to run to try and keep him healthy. As it is, Clifford’s run production tailed off last season when he only averaged 1.6 yards per carry as opposed to his Sophomore and Junior years when he averaged 3.5 and 3.4 yards per carry respectively.
Granted, the PSU O-Line did allow 2.6 sacks per game last season (94th nationally) which, believe it or not, was an “improvement” from 2020 when they allowed 3.11 and were ranked 109th nationally (playing all B10 schools likely skewed that number) but even in 2019, they still allowed 2.46 per game and were ranked 98th (By comparison, Purdue allowed 2.23 (64th) in 2021, 2.0 (48th) in 2020 and 2.33 (86th) in 2019.)
Purdue’s offense lost, arguably their two top receivers in Bell and Wright from last season. If there was one group where there’s depth, it’s at the WR position. Although there might not be the talent of those two, their replacements certainly seem capable as third receiver Thompson stepped up in the bowl game for 200+ yards and Sheffield returns for another season at the slot receiver position.
New faces are likely going to have an impact here as Purdue “raided” the Iowa WR room to get Indy native Tyrone Tracy (Thompson’s former youth teammate) and Charlie Jones (AOC’s former youth teammate) to go along with returning players in Rice and Yaseen, both having last year’s seasons cut short due to injury and speedster Burks.
The tandem of Tracy and Jones combined last year (at Iowa) for 36 receptions for 429 yards and 4 TDs. To put that in perspective, in last year’s bowl game, O’Connell passed for 534 yards and 5 TDs. That single stat alone should explain their reasons for transfer (and most Iowa fans know it).
Speaking of Jones, in addition to being a key player at wideout, his true value may come from the returner position. The reigning All-Big 10 Return Specialist of the Year he finished 2nd in the nation in kick return yards (920), 13th nationally in kickoff return TDs (1), 25th in kickoff return average (25.4) and 27th in Punt Return Average (7.7).
Had those numbers come in a Black and Old Gold uniform (as opposed to Black and Yellow), he would have had the 2nd best season ever in KO yards, 10th best season ever in KO Return Average and improved the Punt Return Average by over a yard and half from last season.
Special Teams could well make the difference in a good season and a special season. Purdue should have the tools to do the latter.
Both teams do feature new Special Team coordinators but return their kickers. Both teams lose their leading punt returner from last season (as above, Purdue has a good replacement). Top kick returners return for both teams as well.
As with any game, miscues are often the fine line between wins and losses. Penalties and turnovers can flip momentum in a heartbeat and teams can suffer greatly in their first game before they settle into a groove. Purdue has been good about avoiding penalties finishing 10th nationally last season in Fewest Penalties Per Game (4.46). PSU wasn't bad but was ranked lower at 40th with 5.38 per game.
Turnover Margin was not as kind to the Boilers last year as they finished -0.23 per game, which ranked them 83rd nationally. Penn State meanwhile finished ranked 31st with a +0.46 margin. Obviously, with a number of new skill players on both sides of the ball, this will be something to watch.
At Purdue, Coach Brohm’s teams have not had the best record in season openers. On the other hand, they’ve also played challenging games every year as opposed to opening up with Duquesne (looking at you, FSU). As noted, that trend has improved the last two years but PSU is not OSU (as in Oregon State), so it will be a big opportunity, and also a big challenge.
Weather looks to be perfect for football with the temperature expected to be in the low-mid 70s at kickoff and no rain clouds in sight. It’s a night game and a “Black Out” game. And, by all accounts, it will be close to a sold out Ross-Ade. The 2018 season started in a similar fashion with that early season, night kickoff, conference game coming against Northwestern. It’s my hope that the similarities end there and the outcome is different this time. (Although, if Purdue has a player who can duplicate what Rondale did in his inaugural contest, I’m all for it)
As shown above, the computer models are all over the board going from the slimmest of slim losses to a win by a TD. Purdue has won their opening game, the last two years. They’ve also won their opening conference game the past two years. We’ll see if they can keep those streaks going.
Let’s play football!
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