I've only been focused on Wisconsin this week (tic) but Purdue is back on the road again (without Willie Nelson) as the now un-ranked Boilermakers head to the 3rd largest city in Nebraska (assuming it’s really a sellout) to face the Cornhuskers.
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Nebraska Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: Nebraska’s “official” roster lists the players without counting the 2020 season. I have not, so their experience numbers are accurate, not based on their eligibility). Purdue has not released a 2-deep so I have used previous game starters.
- Purdue is pretty much done flipping back and forth again between big and small O-Lines, they are all on the larger side from here on out (Northwestern being the exception). Nebraska is big, but not AS big as Wisconsin averaging 309.0 lbs. Not as experienced as the Minnesota or Illinois lines, but better than Iowa, they come in with an average of 2.8 years of experience (the same as Oregon State and ND). Collectively, they will have 67 starts among them. Again, nowhere near Minnesota or Illinois, they will be about even with ND’s in that regard. There are essentially three new starters this year. The Center, Jurgens, has the most starts at 27.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Nebraska line by about 26.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 58 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Nebraska and PSU. They have a collective 46 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Nebraska. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 104. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Nebraska features a 3-4 scheme and as such, for comparison, we count their larger OLB as a DE and their Nickle Back also as a DE. They’ve opened in a Nickle against every team except against running teams, Illinois and Minnesota, so assume they will be in a Nickle on Saturday. With those changes they drop down to one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 272.5 lbs, and well below average in the B10. They do have very good experience as they come in with a 3.75 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by just 33.5 lbs per man. With three+ multi-year starters, they’ll have a very good 80 starts between them.
- Nebraska’s LBs are apparently cloned as they all come in at 225 lbs exactly. (Even an IU grad can figure out that average.) Like the DL, they are below average sized for the B10. They fall in between the other two units in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position but has essentially 1 ½ multi-year starters so the collective starts are a little light at 40.
Vegas predicts Nebraska by 7 1/2 points (Opened up at -7.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-19 Nebraska win
Sagarin predicts a 1.26 Nebraska win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 5.74 point Nebraska win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Nebraska
QB O’Connell NR..........Martinez 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Johnson 4*
WR Wright 4*................Toure 2* (Montana)
WR Bell 4*.........……….Manning 4*
WR Sheffield 3*............ Betts 4*/Liewer NR
TE Durham 3*.................Allen 3*
LT Long 2*......................Corcoran 4*
LG Witt 2*...................... Nouili 2* (Colorado St)
C Hartwig 4*................... Jurgens 4* (ATH)
RG Holstege 2*............... Sichterman 3*
RT Miller 3*.....................Benhart 4*
DE Mitchell 3*..................Stille 3*
DT Johnson 3*………..….Daniels 3*
DT/Nickle Dean 3*.............Domann 3* (LB)
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............Nelson 3*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Reimer NR
LB Douglas 2* ………........Tannor 4*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Heinrich 4*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..…........Newsome 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Dismuke 4*
FS Allen 3*......………........Farmer 3*
SS Grant 4*..........................Taylor-Britt 3* (ATH)
Purdue under Coach Brohm has a pretty poor record in close, one-possession games at 9-16 over his 4+ years. But, who’s worse? That’s correct, Nebraska under Scott Frost who has lost 17 of the 22 one-possession games he’s coached in his 3+ years at his Alma Mater.
The one constant in all of those wins and losses (other than Frosh) has been their QB, Martinez. While he has missed several games during his career due to injury, the bulk of those losses (and to be fair, wins) have had Martinez behind center. All too often, we’ve seen defeat snatched out of the jaws of victory due to a Martinez miscue.
Nebraska’s opener this season against Illinois was a classic Cliff Notes version of his entire career. On one play, he takes advantage of the Illinois defense being out of position and rips off a 75 TD run. On another, he drops the ball trying to scramble where it results in a 41 scoop and score for Illinois.
For the season, Martinez to his credit, hasn’t turned the ball over as frequently as he’s done in the past (3 total) and he’s tops in the conference in Passing Yards, 3rd in Pass Efficiency and 5th in TD Passes. He’s also the team’s leading passer, rusher and scorer (he does not sell sodas at halftime.)
As a team, Nebraska is very good on Offense (ranked #12 nationally) which breaks down to #22 in Rushing Offense and 24th in Team Passing Efficiency.
They are also decent to good on Defense (ranked 44th nationally) which breaks down to #51 in Rush Defense and 41st in Pass Efficiency Defense.
So far so good. Where it gets ugly is when either Nebraska or their opponents get into the Red Zone where they are 106th in the nation in Red Zone Offense and not much better, #100th nationally, in Red Zone Defense.
And, while Nebraska isn’t a bad as they have been, they still commit a fair number of penalties (38th in nation/9th in conference) but they aren’t as egregious (25th nationally/6th in conference) averaging just over 8 yards per penalty.
And, while Martinez hasn’t been throwing interceptions, they have been turning the ball over, losing 6 fumbles (105th national/12th conference) while only gaining 2 fumbles (104th national/12th conference). Turnover margin is just a hair over even (0.12) good for 67th nationally/10th in conference.
Their top RB (2nd on the team in rushing) is Rahmir Johnson with 381 yards on the season and a 47.6 yards per game average. Behind him, it’s running back by committee as another 4 players have 28 or more carries on the year.
As opposed to the Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin style of running, often with a fullback, Nebraska uses the read option (main reason why Martinez is leading the team). In addition, Nebraska uses a lot of “eye candy” pre-snap motion. Purdue will need to maintain their assignments or risk a long gainer.
Nebraska’s top receiver is Samori Toure, a transfer from Montana, with 27 receptions, 3 TDs and a 19.3 yards per reception average. His per game average is 65.1 ypg. The next most targeted receiver is their 6’9” TE, Austin Allen, with 24 receptions, 2 TDs and a 14.3 yards per reception average. He’s good for 42.9 ypg.
When Martinez has to scramble, he’ll look for Allen (he’s easy to spot) and has had good success. Allen is what Purdue fans wanted Kyle Ingraham to become back in the day.
With Martinez a threat to scramble, you’d expect Purdue to play more zone and keep eyes on the QB. Purdue also may utilize a spy to keep tabs on him.
Defensively, the players that need to be accounted for are their three sack leaders, Domann, Nelson and Thomas. Domann of course is the Nickle Back, Nelson a OLB and Thomas a DE but doesn’t start. Intuitively, it looks like Nebraska generates their pressure and sacks primarily through blitzes from the outside.
Unlike many teams, Nebraska has good size in their DBs as all five (Nickle included) measure out over 6’0”. One note: Starting Safety, Deontai Williams, hurt his knee making an interception against Minnesota and is not expected to start or play this week. In his place will be Myles Farmer, a 6’1” R-Frosh.
Looking at the recruiting rankings of Nebraska and the starter’s star ratings above, it’s difficult to see how this is a 5 loss team this season and regardless of the outcome on Saturday, is unlikely to make a bowl game again (last bowl game was 2017 under previous coach).
However, a quick review of those prior classes, and you’d be hard pressed to find many players still on the roster. Nebraska only counts 8 Seniors on their squad to go along with 23 Juniors, 25 Sophomores and 100 True and Redshirt Freshmen (walk-ons obviously are counted).
So, no doubt there seems to be some issue with talent sticking around (most notable to Purdue fans is Wan’dale Robinson now playing in Kentucky).
Now, the situation may not be quite as bad as Nebraska would have you believe. Remember that Nebraska gave every player their 2020 season back so you could likely add a year onto the above breakdown to get a better picture of the age of their roster, but the fact remains that they have lost many of those players they were counting on to contribute.
Playing Nebraska is like trying to defuse a bomb. They have a dynamic offense and a stout defense but have been inconsistent and error prone throughout Frost’s tenure. The trouble is at some point they are going to put it all together and explode like the bomb squad cuts the wrong color wire.
Any Purdue fans with Triskaidekaphobia are probably under a doctor’s care by now. Once again, the scoreboard only went to 13 and it took the defense and an errant XP by a good kicker to get to that number. It’s getting to the point where I think someone needs to bring a goat to the game or bury some chicken bones under the goalpost to get rid of whatever hex has been placed on Purdue’s (offensive) offense.
One would think that O’Connell will again start at QB this week with the sprinkling of Plummer and Burton to accentuate the running game. Convince me I’m wrong, but at some point, one of those two are going to throw out of those running situations.
Regarding the run game, Purdue has now played 3 of the Top 10 and 4 in the Top 25 Rush Defenses nationally (Notre Dame just outside at #34). Nebraska should be a little more manageable at #51.
Along that same theme, Purdue has now played 2 of the Top 11 and 3 in the Top 25 Pass Efficiency Defenses (Purdue’s defense occupies #7 on that list). Again, Nebraska at #41 should be a little easier that what Purdue saw last week.
Wisconsin laid out a blueprint to contain Bell in the passing game. Other teams will likely try to implement a similar strategy but, unless they have the players to pull it off, it’s unlikely they’ll be successful. Still, Durham showed why he’s so valuable, cracking the century mark in receiving yards. He just can’t afford to have another ball taken away from him like has happened twice this season.
In last year’s game, Purdue’s special teams were none too special. In the first 5 minutes of the game, Purdue had their first punt blocked and their second go 36 yards but Purdue took a 15 yard penalty (Sideline Interference) so that Nebraska had a total of 18 yards of offense and 14 points to show for it. Purdue actually outscored Nebraska the rest of the way.
On the flip side, Nebraska’s place kicker Culp has been a bit of a mixed bag recently. Only hitting half of his 12 FG attempts (he does have 51 yarder against Oklahoma) he has missed four XPs. Nebraska apparently isn’t charting his FG misses any longer. Unless it’s a chip shot or a 4th and loooooong, expect Nebraska to eschew the kick and try and pick it up instead. The kicking issues have impacted Nebraska’s Red Zone offense as noted above.
The recipe for success on Saturday probably isn’t too complicated. Don’t turn the ball over, stop the run and wait for Nebraska to foul something up. Like last week, easier said than done but there it is.
Nebraska has their backs pretty much against the wall. If they drop this game, they’ll have to win out (Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Iowa) to make a bowl game. Even with a win, those are going to be long odds.
Like Wisconsin last week and Purdue the week prior, Nebraska is coming off their bye week. Unlike Purdue, they don’t seem to have suffered any injuries during the bye week so they should come in rested and ready, with an extra week to prepare.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the low 60’s at kickoff. Winds should be light at 5-10mph. Perfect day for a game.
Let’s play football!
Taking a look at the size and experience of the Nebraska Lines and LBs and seeing how they match up against Purdue's equivalents. (Note: Nebraska’s “official” roster lists the players without counting the 2020 season. I have not, so their experience numbers are accurate, not based on their eligibility). Purdue has not released a 2-deep so I have used previous game starters.
- Purdue is pretty much done flipping back and forth again between big and small O-Lines, they are all on the larger side from here on out (Northwestern being the exception). Nebraska is big, but not AS big as Wisconsin averaging 309.0 lbs. Not as experienced as the Minnesota or Illinois lines, but better than Iowa, they come in with an average of 2.8 years of experience (the same as Oregon State and ND). Collectively, they will have 67 starts among them. Again, nowhere near Minnesota or Illinois, they will be about even with ND’s in that regard. There are essentially three new starters this year. The Center, Jurgens, has the most starts at 27.
- This week’s Purdue’s projected D-Line (Kalaftkis, Johnson, Dean, Jenkins) averages about 282.5 lbs. (up slightly as we’ve moved Mitchell out of the starting spot). That size puts them slightly below average for the B10. They will be outweighed by the Nebraska line by about 26.5 lbs per man on average. Purdue’s average experience is 2.5 years, down slightly again due to the addition of Jenkins. As a unit they have 58 collective starts.
- Purdue’s projected LBs (Graham, Alexander, Douglas) come in at 233.3 lbs, up slightly from last year and are at 3.67 years of experience, also up from last season due to Douglas starting. Their size puts them in the upper tier of the B10 behind just Rutgers, Nebraska and PSU. They have a collective 46 starts between them.
- Purdue’s projected O-line (Long, Holstege, Hartwig, Witt, Miller) will average 306.0 lbs per man, up by 5 lbs from last year’s 301.0 lbs. but still one of the smaller units in the B10 ahead of just Northwestern and Nebraska. They average 3.00 years of experience, up nearly a half-year from last season’s 2.6 years. Collectively, they have a decent number of starts, in 104. Starting out last season, this group had a mere 36 starts so Purdue should be in much better shape this season.
- Nebraska features a 3-4 scheme and as such, for comparison, we count their larger OLB as a DE and their Nickle Back also as a DE. They’ve opened in a Nickle against every team except against running teams, Illinois and Minnesota, so assume they will be in a Nickle on Saturday. With those changes they drop down to one of the lightest lines Purdue will face at 272.5 lbs, and well below average in the B10. They do have very good experience as they come in with a 3.75 year average and will be outweighed by Purdue’s O-line by just 33.5 lbs per man. With three+ multi-year starters, they’ll have a very good 80 starts between them.
- Nebraska’s LBs are apparently cloned as they all come in at 225 lbs exactly. (Even an IU grad can figure out that average.) Like the DL, they are below average sized for the B10. They fall in between the other two units in terms of experience with 3.00 years at the position but has essentially 1 ½ multi-year starters so the collective starts are a little light at 40.
Vegas predicts Nebraska by 7 1/2 points (Opened up at -7.0 points)
MasseyRatings predicts a 24-19 Nebraska win
Sagarin predicts a 1.26 Nebraska win
CollegeFootballPoll predicts a 5.74 point Nebraska win.
For those of you who care about recruiting ratings, here are the starter’s Rivals ratings:
Purdue...........................Nebraska
QB O’Connell NR..........Martinez 4*
RB Dorue 3*…...............Johnson 4*
WR Wright 4*................Toure 2* (Montana)
WR Bell 4*.........……….Manning 4*
WR Sheffield 3*............ Betts 4*/Liewer NR
TE Durham 3*.................Allen 3*
LT Long 2*......................Corcoran 4*
LG Witt 2*...................... Nouili 2* (Colorado St)
C Hartwig 4*................... Jurgens 4* (ATH)
RG Holstege 2*............... Sichterman 3*
RT Miller 3*.....................Benhart 4*
DE Mitchell 3*..................Stille 3*
DT Johnson 3*………..….Daniels 3*
DT/Nickle Dean 3*.............Domann 3* (LB)
DE/LB Karlaftis 4*.............Nelson 3*
LB Alexander 3*....…........ Reimer NR
LB Douglas 2* ………........Tannor 4*
LB/S Graham 3*...…….…..Heinrich 4*
CB Brown 3* (KY)..…........Newsome 3*
CB Mackey 3*.....................Dismuke 4*
FS Allen 3*......………........Farmer 3*
SS Grant 4*..........................Taylor-Britt 3* (ATH)
Purdue under Coach Brohm has a pretty poor record in close, one-possession games at 9-16 over his 4+ years. But, who’s worse? That’s correct, Nebraska under Scott Frost who has lost 17 of the 22 one-possession games he’s coached in his 3+ years at his Alma Mater.
The one constant in all of those wins and losses (other than Frosh) has been their QB, Martinez. While he has missed several games during his career due to injury, the bulk of those losses (and to be fair, wins) have had Martinez behind center. All too often, we’ve seen defeat snatched out of the jaws of victory due to a Martinez miscue.
Nebraska’s opener this season against Illinois was a classic Cliff Notes version of his entire career. On one play, he takes advantage of the Illinois defense being out of position and rips off a 75 TD run. On another, he drops the ball trying to scramble where it results in a 41 scoop and score for Illinois.
For the season, Martinez to his credit, hasn’t turned the ball over as frequently as he’s done in the past (3 total) and he’s tops in the conference in Passing Yards, 3rd in Pass Efficiency and 5th in TD Passes. He’s also the team’s leading passer, rusher and scorer (he does not sell sodas at halftime.)
As a team, Nebraska is very good on Offense (ranked #12 nationally) which breaks down to #22 in Rushing Offense and 24th in Team Passing Efficiency.
They are also decent to good on Defense (ranked 44th nationally) which breaks down to #51 in Rush Defense and 41st in Pass Efficiency Defense.
So far so good. Where it gets ugly is when either Nebraska or their opponents get into the Red Zone where they are 106th in the nation in Red Zone Offense and not much better, #100th nationally, in Red Zone Defense.
And, while Nebraska isn’t a bad as they have been, they still commit a fair number of penalties (38th in nation/9th in conference) but they aren’t as egregious (25th nationally/6th in conference) averaging just over 8 yards per penalty.
And, while Martinez hasn’t been throwing interceptions, they have been turning the ball over, losing 6 fumbles (105th national/12th conference) while only gaining 2 fumbles (104th national/12th conference). Turnover margin is just a hair over even (0.12) good for 67th nationally/10th in conference.
Their top RB (2nd on the team in rushing) is Rahmir Johnson with 381 yards on the season and a 47.6 yards per game average. Behind him, it’s running back by committee as another 4 players have 28 or more carries on the year.
As opposed to the Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin style of running, often with a fullback, Nebraska uses the read option (main reason why Martinez is leading the team). In addition, Nebraska uses a lot of “eye candy” pre-snap motion. Purdue will need to maintain their assignments or risk a long gainer.
Nebraska’s top receiver is Samori Toure, a transfer from Montana, with 27 receptions, 3 TDs and a 19.3 yards per reception average. His per game average is 65.1 ypg. The next most targeted receiver is their 6’9” TE, Austin Allen, with 24 receptions, 2 TDs and a 14.3 yards per reception average. He’s good for 42.9 ypg.
When Martinez has to scramble, he’ll look for Allen (he’s easy to spot) and has had good success. Allen is what Purdue fans wanted Kyle Ingraham to become back in the day.
With Martinez a threat to scramble, you’d expect Purdue to play more zone and keep eyes on the QB. Purdue also may utilize a spy to keep tabs on him.
Defensively, the players that need to be accounted for are their three sack leaders, Domann, Nelson and Thomas. Domann of course is the Nickle Back, Nelson a OLB and Thomas a DE but doesn’t start. Intuitively, it looks like Nebraska generates their pressure and sacks primarily through blitzes from the outside.
Unlike many teams, Nebraska has good size in their DBs as all five (Nickle included) measure out over 6’0”. One note: Starting Safety, Deontai Williams, hurt his knee making an interception against Minnesota and is not expected to start or play this week. In his place will be Myles Farmer, a 6’1” R-Frosh.
Looking at the recruiting rankings of Nebraska and the starter’s star ratings above, it’s difficult to see how this is a 5 loss team this season and regardless of the outcome on Saturday, is unlikely to make a bowl game again (last bowl game was 2017 under previous coach).
However, a quick review of those prior classes, and you’d be hard pressed to find many players still on the roster. Nebraska only counts 8 Seniors on their squad to go along with 23 Juniors, 25 Sophomores and 100 True and Redshirt Freshmen (walk-ons obviously are counted).
So, no doubt there seems to be some issue with talent sticking around (most notable to Purdue fans is Wan’dale Robinson now playing in Kentucky).
Now, the situation may not be quite as bad as Nebraska would have you believe. Remember that Nebraska gave every player their 2020 season back so you could likely add a year onto the above breakdown to get a better picture of the age of their roster, but the fact remains that they have lost many of those players they were counting on to contribute.
Playing Nebraska is like trying to defuse a bomb. They have a dynamic offense and a stout defense but have been inconsistent and error prone throughout Frost’s tenure. The trouble is at some point they are going to put it all together and explode like the bomb squad cuts the wrong color wire.
Any Purdue fans with Triskaidekaphobia are probably under a doctor’s care by now. Once again, the scoreboard only went to 13 and it took the defense and an errant XP by a good kicker to get to that number. It’s getting to the point where I think someone needs to bring a goat to the game or bury some chicken bones under the goalpost to get rid of whatever hex has been placed on Purdue’s (offensive) offense.
One would think that O’Connell will again start at QB this week with the sprinkling of Plummer and Burton to accentuate the running game. Convince me I’m wrong, but at some point, one of those two are going to throw out of those running situations.
Regarding the run game, Purdue has now played 3 of the Top 10 and 4 in the Top 25 Rush Defenses nationally (Notre Dame just outside at #34). Nebraska should be a little more manageable at #51.
Along that same theme, Purdue has now played 2 of the Top 11 and 3 in the Top 25 Pass Efficiency Defenses (Purdue’s defense occupies #7 on that list). Again, Nebraska at #41 should be a little easier that what Purdue saw last week.
Wisconsin laid out a blueprint to contain Bell in the passing game. Other teams will likely try to implement a similar strategy but, unless they have the players to pull it off, it’s unlikely they’ll be successful. Still, Durham showed why he’s so valuable, cracking the century mark in receiving yards. He just can’t afford to have another ball taken away from him like has happened twice this season.
In last year’s game, Purdue’s special teams were none too special. In the first 5 minutes of the game, Purdue had their first punt blocked and their second go 36 yards but Purdue took a 15 yard penalty (Sideline Interference) so that Nebraska had a total of 18 yards of offense and 14 points to show for it. Purdue actually outscored Nebraska the rest of the way.
On the flip side, Nebraska’s place kicker Culp has been a bit of a mixed bag recently. Only hitting half of his 12 FG attempts (he does have 51 yarder against Oklahoma) he has missed four XPs. Nebraska apparently isn’t charting his FG misses any longer. Unless it’s a chip shot or a 4th and loooooong, expect Nebraska to eschew the kick and try and pick it up instead. The kicking issues have impacted Nebraska’s Red Zone offense as noted above.
The recipe for success on Saturday probably isn’t too complicated. Don’t turn the ball over, stop the run and wait for Nebraska to foul something up. Like last week, easier said than done but there it is.
Nebraska has their backs pretty much against the wall. If they drop this game, they’ll have to win out (Ohio State, at Wisconsin, Iowa) to make a bowl game. Even with a win, those are going to be long odds.
Like Wisconsin last week and Purdue the week prior, Nebraska is coming off their bye week. Unlike Purdue, they don’t seem to have suffered any injuries during the bye week so they should come in rested and ready, with an extra week to prepare.
Weather for Saturday is predicted to be sunny with temperatures in the low 60’s at kickoff. Winds should be light at 5-10mph. Perfect day for a game.
Let’s play football!
